[Free Articles] Thoughts on Breaking the Reserve List & Solutions to the High Pr

[JACO]

Not one but two new articles, both FREE on the TP site for you all to read:
Part 1 - Thoughts on Breaking the Reserve List
Part 2 - Solutions to the High Price of Cardboard

In the first part I take a look at the price of cards and how the state of Legacy pertains to the Reserve List, and then in second part I look into a very feasible solution that I think would make most players happy. Check it out and let me know what you think I hit on, what you disagree with, and what you'd like me to touch on next time. Thanks for reading!

[DubDub]

Thanks for the articles, though I definitely disagree with you regarding the cards you think can be reprinted as legal in Standard.  It should be evident by the printing of Tectonic Edge that Wasteland won't ever be Standard legal again.  I also feel that you're stretching the definition of 'staple' at times (Enchantress?).

Prices are increasing for Eternal cards (primarily Legacy cards) because there is greater support for Legacy, with two GPs and the string of SCG $5Ks, and hence greater demand.  High prices are a result of Legacy's increased health, not evidence that there's a problem.  The card market is self-regulating.

As people with interest in Vintage, our problem is that support for Vintage has not scaled with support for Legacy.  There's more than enough power for everyone who wants to play with it to do so, there just need to be reasons for them to invest:
-WOTC/DCI could better manage the Vintage restricted list.  Without discussing specifics, I would posit that more 'interesting' and indeed, 'cheaper' cards can come off the list.
-SCG could announce that at each 5K$ weekend they are adding a 5-10 proxy Vintage Mox event, probably on the same day as the Standard Open so that it doesn't compete with the Legacy Open.
-WOTC could support Vintage 'game days', non-proxy events 2-3 times per year across the country/world with promo prizes for participation etc.
-Local organizers can continue to punish the use of proxies beyond the 5th (or 10th, whatever), with an additional cost of $1 per extra proxy.  Conversely they can reward players who play with fewer than 5 or 10 proxies, or with 0 proxies.  Better yet, give each player who enters five proxy credits, and make them transferable for that tournament, or even across tournaments with the same organizer.

However, these entities won't take any action unless it is in their interests to do so.  Every time someone plays in a Vintage event they aren't playing in a Standard event, or drafting.  Each of the formats is a substitute for the others.

Fundamentally, reprinting cards makes them available to prospective players who don't value them as highly as current players.  Wouldn't it be better for the format to be more interesting and entertaining, so that prospective players begin to value the cards more highly and take the plunge?

[Cyberpunker]

I know personally of at least 4 people that would not take the plunge to Vintage because of the absurd amount of money you need to be good in it.

Then Legacy is also annoying because of the dual lands, tarmogoyf, etc etc.

It is not as if players who are already interested in the Eternal formats will quit because their cards are worth less. They will most likely keep on playing because that is what they like to do.

More noneternal players will be willing to invest in the now cheaper Eternal formats and then the community will grow.

(Vintage pro tour?)


The downside:

The collectors and dealers will lose money and will not be happy. 

[Killane]

The downside:

The collectors and dealers will lose money and will not be happy. 

As per Steve's article on SCG, I don't think this is the case. If Vintage becomes more popular, than Vintage pimp will be even more valuable. I mean really, who would run a new frame foil Lotus over a Beta lotus? IMHO, only those who can;t afford the pimpness (like me;)

[median]

-Local organizers can continue to punish the use of proxies beyond the 5th (or 10th, whatever), with an additional cost of $1 per extra proxy.  Conversely they can reward players who play with fewer than 5 or 10 proxies, or with 0 proxies.  Better yet, give each player who enters five proxy credits, and make them transferable for that tournament, or even across tournaments with the same organizer.

Why not give a discount based on each card not proxied?

I know personally of at least 4 people that would not take the plunge to Vintage because of the absurd amount of money you need to be good in it.

 The card market is self-regulating.

The problem is that legacy is a bad example. Tarmogoyf, a card driven by extended prices is one of the most expensive staples people will buy. Vintage has bazaars,  solomoxen, shops, and drains in addition to the legacy priced staples that may need to be bought to make the proxy count. Doing away with the reserve list will put these into an affordable price range.

[DubDub]

-Local organizers can continue to punish the use of proxies beyond the 5th (or 10th, whatever), with an additional cost of $1 per extra proxy.  Conversely they can reward players who play with fewer than 5 or 10 proxies, or with 0 proxies.  Better yet, give each player who enters five proxy credits, and make them transferable for that tournament, or even across tournaments with the same organizer.

Why not give a discount based on each card not proxied?

That's what a cost per proxy is, since 75 - [# of proxies] == [# of non-proxies]

If I say, entry fee 25$, 5 proxies free, $1 per proxy beyond the fifth, 10 proxy max.
Or I say, entry fee 30$, 10 proxies free, $1 credit per proxy not used, up to 5 credits.

It's the same thing.  Perhaps TOs could weigh in on which statement they think is more likely to draw players.  I would think that players looking at the headline would compare 25$ vs 30$, and prefer the 25$ event despite the fact that rationally they're identical.

I know personally of at least 4 people that would not take the plunge to Vintage because of the absurd amount of money you need to be good in it.

There are non-Vintage formats available to those people.  Or if they're outside of a proxy-environment they can move to one or lobby for one.

Then Legacy is also annoying because of the dual lands, tarmogoyf, etc etc.

There are non-Eternal formats available to those people.

It is not as if players who are already interested in the Eternal formats will quit because their cards are worth less. They will most likely keep on playing because that is what they like to do.

In some cases this is actually exactly what would happen.  However, it's not going to be significant, and is not my primary concern.  Lowering the barrier to entry dilutes the Vintage community with players who don't care as much about it.  There are options available that can instead increase interest in the format, to encourage people who don't play now that it is worth the investment.  Getting people who are interested in the format to join the Vintage community is the way to increase retention and improve the format's health.

More noneternal players will be willing to invest in the now more interesting Eternal formats and then the community will grow.

Fixed.  Remember, this is exactly what's going on with Legacy now.  Card prices are increasing because people are buying cards.  GP:Madrid didn't have 2,220 players because card prices are low.  There is a more significant return to owning Legacy cards now than there has been in the past, because there is a more significant return on playing Legacy, and more opportunities to do so, now than in the past.

[Cyberpunker]

There is a difference between paying for Legacy and paying for Vintage right now. If you wanted to get into Legacy, you have to pay a lot. If you want to get into Vintage right now, you have to basically shell out another 3000 dollars. That is not encouraging anyone to step in.

btw I am talking about Sanctioned Vintage. . And I believe that Sanctioned Events give the format a more legitimate feel. The more people can play sanctioned events, the more seriously people will take the format. That is what happened with Legacy. People took it seriously.

There are non-Eternal formats available to those people.

The purpose of reprinting cards is to encourage people come into Eternal formats.

[dragzz]

Why not make CE, IE cards tournament legal instead of reprinting p9's?

[honestabe]

Very good article, I have only one question.

Why is it ok to reprint Force of Will and have its price drop from $40 to $5-$10, but not to reprint Duals, even as a judge or special reprint program and have thier price drop from $35-$50 to $20-$35 (obviously, a judge reward or special reprint would put less into circulation than just plopping them into M11, thus less of a price drop)

[DubDub]

There is a difference between paying for Legacy and paying for Vintage right now. If you wanted to get into Legacy, you have to pay a lot. If you want to get into Vintage right now, you have to basically shell out another 3000 dollars. That is not encouraging anyone to step in.

btw I am talking about Sanctioned Vintage. . And I believe that Sanctioned Events give the format a more legitimate feel. The more people can play sanctioned events, the more seriously people will take the format. That is what happened with Legacy. People took it seriously.

Lowering the barrier to entry doesn't additionally encourage non-Vintage players to take up Vintage, it just makes it easier to do so.  There is a distinction, because the people who start playing Vintage when it becomes easier to do so are less invested in the format.  Retention of existing and new Vintage players will decline.

I understand that you're talking about sanctioned Vintage.  There are differences in our experience, but here's the difference in what we're saying:
You're saying "Let's cheapen Vintage, give it away so everyone can have it, then more people will play."
I'm saying "Let's make Vintage really great, so that people realize that they want to play it."

Look at what has happened to Vintage in the US with the adoption of the proxy-system (like reprints, a tool to make Vintage 'more accessible').  US power migrated to Europe where it is more needed, and more valued.  The US Vintage scene has since waned.

Very good article, I have only one question.

Why is it ok to reprint Force of Will and have its price drop from $40 to $5-$10, but not to reprint Duals, even as a judge or special reprint program and have thier price drop from $35-$50 to $20-$35 (obviously, a judge reward or special reprint would put less into circulation than just plopping them into M11, thus less of a price drop)

I think the author's point is that Force is not on the Reserved List, and hence a non-promo reprint is within WOTC's rights.  I for one disagree that Force has an appropriate power level for such a (Standard Legal) reprint.

[Killane]

Why not make CE, IE cards tournament legal instead of reprinting p9's?

marked card - the backs and corners are different

[dragzz]

Alpha cards have different borders but they are playable via opaque sleeves, same can be considered when playing with IE, CE cards. The back wouldn't matter much, it's no different than playing with cards with shuffle marks and/or creases.

[BruiZar]

I like the first part of your article, but your solutions suck and are as bad or worst than the 'solutions' provided by chronicles..

Magic is part:
Collecting
Pimping with exclusive cards
Deckbuilding
Casual play
Competitive play
Secondary market

Your solution involves ruining collections and the secondary market; while not SOLVING any real problems. My opinion is that eternal players are so stuck on the fact that they are in the most expensive format, that they think other formats use $50,- budget decks.People have money. Magic has grown up, its players have grown up, and t2 players are willing to shell out money for Baneslayers, Goyfs, Bitterblossoms, Mutavaults, Thoughtseizes, Jace and so on.

You start playing magic as a casual player, then you gradually start with prereleases, drafts and t2 competitions. After that you collect more expensive cards to build extended decks. Once you've acquired those you start with legacy and after that the ultimate goal is playing vintage. If everyone can play vintage, why would they bother with t2 or extended? Part of the eternal formats is the sheer brokenness and the extremely valuable, rare and powerful bombs of our game. Not everyone can play in the major league or formula 1 races. If you don't take magic serious enough to spend money on rare, iconic cards, go play sealed tournaments instead.

[CorwinB]

As per Steve's article on SCG, I don't think this is the case. If Vintage becomes more popular, than Vintage pimp will be even more valuable. I mean really, who would run a new frame foil Lotus over a Beta lotus? IMHO, only those who can;t afford the pimpness (like me;)

Steve's article made some good points, but his argument on original retaining their value being entirely articulated around Alpha and Beta doesn't take into account around 80% of Power, and 99% of dual lands.

[PhilipJFry]

As per Steve's article on SCG, I don't think this is the case. If Vintage becomes more popular, than Vintage pimp will be even more valuable. I mean really, who would run a new frame foil Lotus over a Beta lotus? IMHO, only those who can;t afford the pimpness (like me;)

Steve's article made some good points, but his argument on original retaining their value being entirely articulated around Alpha and Beta doesn't take into account around 80% of Power, and 99% of dual lands.

Exactly.  All these folks arguing for reprints, claiming values will not drop, citing comic books reprints, are ignoring one fact - Unlimited was already a "reprint" of sorts of power.  They have value because, though they are a reprint, the are scarce and have a function (as the one of the only available sources of playable cards).  My marginal condition unlimited cards are not going to weather the storm of a power reprint, no matter how many times any one wishes to claim otherwise.  Mint Alphas and Betas - sure.  Played Alpha and Beta, maybe.  But played Unlimited - the values will tank to reach an equilibrium with whatever new printing there is, or perhaps even go lower if the reprint is BB and non-foil.  There is simply no reason for it not to.  This is not Action Comics #1, the value of which is based upon its originality, uniqueness, scarcity, and desirability versus reprints.  When talking about unlimited cards, this is something that is already a reprint trying to compete with other reprints.   An Action Comics reprint from 2009 and one from 1970 are both still reprints, and have negligible functional difference.

[nataz]

** edit - I never read Steve's article so if I'm re-hashing his points I'm sorry. However I think my point holds in relation to the quote in your article atributed to him.

I enjoyed reading your article, and I think you have an interesting perspective; however I disagree with your points.
 
Well, from an economic perspective, it depends on how proxies/reprints are viewd by the marketplace. Are they substitutions for original power or are they not? This is the crux of the whole "will the price of the original card decrease/increase" question. Since we are looking at the price shift of a good, you have to know where the value of that good comes from. If its value is from a collectors point of view, then -no- there will never be anymore alpha/beta/unlimited power printed again (besides good fakes). If its from a players point of view, then sure, adding re-prints is adding functionaly identical copies - perfect substitution - and you should see the appropriate price drop.

From a personal perspective, I'm not a collector, I'm a player, so if I can get cheap re-prints to play with I'll sell all of my original power and pick up the cheap stuff. In fact, I'll never buy original power again. However, I can't be the rule. If I was the average person, how would you explain the difference between Alpah-Beta-Unlimted power? Why is Beta worth SO much more then unlimted if it is in fact a perfect substitution?

I think the alpha/beta/unlimited/revised costs structures are the BEST argument FOR re-printing since its obvious that there are enough collectors to keep prices high for older cards, while still having a variable number of print runs. How you tweak those new print runs is of course the difficult question (how many/how quick), but that the theory is sound is not really up for logical debate.

I think your comment about Steve's analysis is a little strong considering you don't exactly apply rock solid economic analysis yourself. You may have a lot of experience in the card market, but that doesn't mean your opinion automatically withstands challenge.

As for your examples of some the older chronical re-prints and time shifted cards, I’d argue that those are red herrings. Unlike power/dual lands, those cards are not staples to the format. The elasticity of those cards is closer to 1 than it is to zero. You need power to play vintage optimally (with a few key exceptions) you don’t need carrion ants, the dragon lords, or even meddling mage. I suspect if Meddling Mage became a format staple similar to moxen (say a new rule that required 1 MM to be in every deck), you would a large price shift favoring the older version.

[JACO]

Very good article, I have only one question.

Why is it ok to reprint Force of Will and have its price drop from $40 to $5-$10, but not to reprint Duals, even as a judge or special reprint program and have thier price drop from $35-$50 to $20-$35 (obviously, a judge reward or special reprint would put less into circulation than just plopping them into M11, thus less of a price drop)

Force of Will and the other cards I've mentioned are NOT on the Reserved List, that's the difference.

I like the first part of your article, but your solutions suck and are as bad or worst than the 'solutions' provided by chronicles...Your solution involves ruining collections and the secondary market; while not SOLVING any real problems. My opinion is that eternal players are so stuck on the fact that they are in the most expensive format, that they think other formats use $50,- budget decks.People have money. Magic has grown up, its players have grown up, and t2 players are willing to shell out money for Baneslayers, Goyfs, Bitterblossoms, Mutavaults, Thoughtseizes, Jace and so on.

I understand the difference in mindset between Vintage players, Legacy players, and Standard players, and I agree that the market is self-regulating (until Wizards' erratas cards like Time Vault, which is an outside influence that also helps drive the price of a card).

Would you argue against the fact that my solution of reprinting staples (which are NOT on the Reserved List) would lower the barrier of entry to Eternal formats? Players and collectors were never given any sense that Tarmogoyf or Force of Will would never be reprinted. Not every card has to be cheap, but if enough commonly played cards are cheap this will prevent cost from being a major barrier of entry.

[Phele]

As per Steve's article on SCG, I don't think this is the case. If Vintage becomes more popular, than Vintage pimp will be even more valuable. I mean really, who would run a new frame foil Lotus over a Beta lotus? IMHO, only those who can;t afford the pimpness (like me;)

Steve's article made some good points, but his argument on original retaining their value being entirely articulated around Alpha and Beta doesn't take into account around 80% of Power, and 99% of dual lands.

Exactly.  All these folks arguing for reprints, claiming values will not drop, citing comic books reprints, are ignoring one fact - Unlimited was already a "reprint" of sorts of power.  They have value because, though they are a reprint, the are scarce and have a function (as the one of the only available sources of playable cards).  My marginal condition unlimited cards are not going to weather the storm of a power reprint, no matter how many times any one wishes to claim otherwise.  Mint Alphas and Betas - sure.  Played Alpha and Beta, maybe.  But played Unlimited - the values will tank to reach an equilibrium with whatever new printing there is, or perhaps even go lower if the reprint is BB and non-foil.  There is simply no reason for it not to.  This is not Action Comics #1, the value of which is based upon its originality, uniqueness, scarcity, and desirability versus reprints.  When talking about unlimited cards, this is something that is already a reprint trying to compete with other reprints.   An Action Comics reprint from 2009 and one from 1970 are both still reprints, and have negligible functional difference.

I agree with both arguments and this is what makes me anxious about reprints. I wouldn't love to see my unlimited Power drop in price a lot.

[Cyberpunker]

Am I mistaken in that Tarmogoyf will be reprinted? (futuresight card)

[Yare]

Am I mistaken in that Tarmogoyf will be reprinted? (futuresight card)

A card appearing in future sight does not guarantee it will be reprinted in the future. It was just a set gimmick.

[nataz]

My marginal condition unlimited cards are not going to weather the storm of a power reprint, no matter how many times any one wishes to claim otherwise.  Mint Alphas and Betas - sure.  Played Alpha and Beta, maybe.  But played Unlimited - the values will tank to reach an equilibrium with whatever new printing there is, or perhaps even go lower if the reprint is BB and non-foil.  There is simply no reason for it not to.

You can't blithely say that the equilibrium will fall at such a point that beat beta/alpha will retain value, but unlimited won't. That’s wholly a function of supply (with will presumably increase with re-prints) and demand (which will presumably increase IF more people get into vintage). Where that new equalibrium falls depends on how the slope of BOTH supply and demand change. Its entirely possible to increase the quantity of a good by a factor of X and yet still maintain the same proportional equilibrium. You guys get that right? do I have to draw a graph?

[JACO]

From a personal perspective, I'm not a collector, I'm a player, so if I can get cheap re-prints to play with I'll sell all of my original power and pick up the cheap stuff. In fact, I'll never buy original power again. However, I can't be the rule. If I was the average person, how would you explain the difference between Alpah-Beta-Unlimted power? Why is Beta worth SO much more then unlimted if it is in fact a perfect substitution?

Aside from people looking for minty cards to complete their Alpha/Beta sets, the main difference between Alpha/Beta/Unlimited power has to do with the black borders, believe it or not. Any Vintage player I've ever met who is remotely concerned about the aesthetics of their cards balances the extra cost of trading their cards to black border vs. the satisfaction they would get by looking at a more aesthetically pleasing black border. This might sound goofy, but it's true. For example, if I care about how my cards look (even though they all perform the same), it might be worth it to me to spend $350 on a Beta Mox Emerald, when I could instead get an Unlimited one for $295. That $35 might be worth the black border good looks to me. But if the Beta Mox Emerald was $500 compared to a $295 Unlimited one? Probably not for a lot of people. The black border is part of the things that keeps Alpha/Beta very high compared to all other printings. If they reprinted Foil copies I know TONS of people who would ditch their Alpha/Beta copies after about 30 seconds of thought.

You can't blithely say that the equilibrium will fall at such a point that beat beta/alpha will retain value, but unlimited won't. That’s wholly a function of supply (with will presumably increase with re-prints) and demand (which will presumably increase IF more people get into vintage). Where that new equalibrium falls depends on how the slope of BOTH supply and demand change. Its entirely possible to increase the quantity of a good by a factor of X and yet still maintain the same proportional equilibrium. You guys get that right? do I have to draw a graph?

I agree with you here. I was also demonstrating the fact that Unlimited cards would take a massive beating though in comparison (which had convently overlooked by Stephen Q.), but if Power was reprinted they would be drop markedly.

[nataz]

The whole black boarder thing falls under *how* they manage the reprint, not the reprint itself, right? I mean if it's an issue of foil>BB>WB why not just re-print WB power and make it less valuble to the collectors while still making a s reasonable substitution?

Remember, if we can increase the ratio of the change in demand slope > change in the supply slope, then everyone wins. In other words, if we can increase the number of player in vintage to the point where they effect the demand curve MORE then the re-prints effect the supply curve then we all win. Old stuff retains value, and new people get to play at a lower entry costs.

It's like christmas land then - must be nice. Of course actually making intellegent decisions about how to do the re-prints takes a deep understanding of the market (which I do not have - but you do!). I'd really like to see what you would come up with if you could break the rules. Totally ignore the reprint policy - assume there will be a reprint of power - how do you manage it to protect the value of cards while lowering the costs of entry and increasing the supply of staples?

[DubDub]

The whole black boarder thing falls under *how* they manage the reprint, not the reprint itself, right? I mean if it's an issue of foil>BB>WB why not just re-print WB power and make it less valuble to the collectors while still making a s reasonable substitution?

We have this now, they're called proxies.

Remember, if we can increase the ratio of the change in demand slope > change in the supply slope, then everyone wins. In other words, if we can increase the number of player in vintage to the point where they effect the demand curve MORE then the re-prints effect the supply curve then we all win. Old stuff retains value, and new people get to play at a lower entry costs

Has the introduction of the proxy system in the US led to a larger or smaller Vintage community?  For every one person who couldn't play without proxies it seems there are two who have left Vintage since the introduction of proxies.

[Cyberpunker]

The whole black boarder thing falls under *how* they manage the reprint, not the reprint itself, right? I mean if it's an issue of foil>BB>WB why not just re-print WB power and make it less valuble to the collectors while still making a s reasonable substitution?

We have this now, they're called proxies.

Remember, if we can increase the ratio of the change in demand slope > change in the supply slope, then everyone wins. In other words, if we can increase the number of player in vintage to the point where they effect the demand curve MORE then the re-prints effect the supply curve then we all win. Old stuff retains value, and new people get to play at a lower entry costs

Has the introduction of the proxy system in the US led to a larger or smaller Vintage community?  For every one person who couldn't play without proxies it seems there are two who have left Vintage since the introduction of proxies.

Proxies are not the same as reprints. Reprints allow for sanctioned Vintage to be held more often.

Sanctioned Vintage will have a more serious player base than non sanctioned Vintage. I do not think players will leave Vintage should Wizards reprint anything on their reserve list. And I do think more players will go into Vintage if they don't have to pay so much.

Am I mistaken in that Tarmogoyf will be reprinted? (futuresight card)

A card appearing in future sight does not guarantee it will be reprinted in the future. It was just a set gimmick.

They should live up to their gimmicks then.

[honestabe]

Very good article, I have only one question.

Why is it ok to reprint Force of Will and have its price drop from $40 to $5-$10, but not to reprint Duals, even as a judge or special reprint program and have thier price drop from $35-$50 to $20-$35 (obviously, a judge reward or special reprint would put less into circulation than just plopping them into M11, thus less of a price drop)

Force of Will and the other cards I've mentioned are NOT on the Reserved List, that's the difference.

But Wizards has already shown that they are willing to print reserved cards in special sets and as judge promos.  And Duals get more play than forces.  Do you think that duals, like power have a certai mystique to them, or are you just against any sorts of reprints off the reserved list?

[smasher]

The price of legacy is at an all time high yet the latest GP had over 2k players. In comparison to 10 proxy vintage the price of legacy might actually be higher depending on your deck choice.

10 proxy won't allow every deck to be played without some expense but the same can be said of legacy. Do you wanna play imperial recruiters, loyal retainers, tabernacles, ravages of war, rolling earthquake, etc. to play your first deck choice? It's like needing the imperial seal or the set of mana drains in vintage to compete with your first deck choice within proxy limits.

If the goal is to grow vintage and the thousands of active legacy players aren't coming over to vintage its probably the lack of tournaments more than anything since they are willing to drop a lot of money on legacy.

The question seems to be more than anything is how do we get more vintage tournaments going? Is it possible to get enough tournaments started while still keeping the proxy system? It seems for wizards to get on board with the vintage tournament scene we need sanctioned events which would mean no proxy events. This leads to needing reprints for P9, Bazaars, Workshops, and Drains.

As it stands now a legacy player that has a collection that enables multiple legacy deck choices should have little problem playing proxy vintage. Vintage events are just few and far between right now.

[DubDub]

The whole black boarder thing falls under *how* they manage the reprint, not the reprint itself, right? I mean if it's an issue of foil>BB>WB why not just re-print WB power and make it less valuble to the collectors while still making a s reasonable substitution?

We have this now, they're called proxies.

Remember, if we can increase the ratio of the change in demand slope > change in the supply slope, then everyone wins. In other words, if we can increase the number of player in vintage to the point where they effect the demand curve MORE then the re-prints effect the supply curve then we all win. Old stuff retains value, and new people get to play at a lower entry costs

Has the introduction of the proxy system in the US led to a larger or smaller Vintage community?  For every one person who couldn't play without proxies it seems there are two who have left Vintage since the introduction of proxies.

Proxies are not the same as reprints. Reprints allow for sanctioned Vintage to be held more often.

Sanctioned Vintage will have a more serious player base than non sanctioned Vintage. I do not think players will leave Vintage should Wizards reprint anything on their reserve list. And I do think more players will go into Vintage if they don't have to pay so much.

But we are not hearing a clamor for sanctioned Vintage events, only for cheaper power.  We are hearing that expense is the problem.  People want the real thing, but they don't want to pay for it.  That's called having your cake and eating it too.

[Smmenen]

Jason:

The facts in my article are simple:

1) Beta Underground Sea is worth as much or more than most Moxen, and 2/3s of Power Nine:  

http://blacklotusproject.com/cards/Limited+Edition+Beta/

Limited Edition Beta

$12391.89 / 683 volume
Most valuable cards
1    Black Lotus    1379.85 (0.00%)    6 volume
2    Ancestral Recall    860.00 (17.81%)    1
3    Mox Sapphire    791.00 (0.00%)    5
4    Underground Sea    583.00 (0.00%)    2
5    Mox Pearl    508.20 (0.00%)    4
6    Mox Emerald    493.90 (0.00%)    4
7    Mox Jet    490.95 (0.00%)    4
8    Mox Ruby    458.70 (0.00%)    7
9    Time Vault    455.00 (0.00%)    1
10    Volcanic Island    441.34 (0.00%)    5
11    Time Walk    405.01 (0.00%)    4
12    Tropical Island    316.17 (0.00%)    4
13    Timetwister    285.55 (0.00%)    7
14    Tundra    236.51 (9.83%)    5
15    Taiga    219.16 (0.00%)    4

Yet, there are 90% more Seas printed than Moxen.   The point is simple: the quantity of Seas is print has very little affect on the price of Beta/Alpha power nine.

You said that of my statement making exactly that point: "more asinine words and a conclusion based on many unaccounted for factors have rarely been written."   Yet, the facts support me.  Not you.  

2) Original edition printings of Alpha and Beta cards do not lose value through reprints.   My article carefully documents this in the case of Birds of Paradise, Wrath of God, and Shivan Dragon, which have each seen numerous reprints, but have not affected the price of Alpha and Beta, and arguably have increased their value.

Birds of Paradise (A) - $200
Birds of Paradise (B) - $200
Birds of Paradise (U) - $25
Birds of Paradise (RV) - $12.50
Birds of Paradise (4th) - $9
Birds of Paradise (5th) - $10
Birds of Paradise (6th) - $10
Birds of Paradise (7th) - $10
Birds of Paradise (8th) - $10
Birds of Paradise (RAV) - $10
Birds of Paradise (10th) - $10
Birds of Paradise (M10) - $6

Many other cards make this point: Mana Vault, Demonic Tutor, etc.  

Mana Vault:

   *   Fourth Edition 2.08
    * Revised Edition 2.01
    * Unlimited Edition 7.84
    * Limited Edition Beta 114.72
    * Limited Edition Alpha 119.95

Demonic Tutor:

   *   Revised Edition 4.99
    *   Unlimited Edition 7.85
    * Limited Edition Beta 49.01
    * Limited Edition Alpha 80.00

Swords To Plowshares

     * Ice Age  2.38
    *   Fourth Edition 2.79
    * Revised Edition 2.39
    * Unlimited Edition 4.58
    * Limited Edition Beta 15.20
    * Limited Edition Alpha 23.84

3) Alpha and Beta Underground Seas, and other A/B dual lands, have recently risen substantialy in price.  The demand for Alpha and Beta dual lands is clearly related to the demand for dual lands generally, but it is none the less not the same.  

If Wizards were to reprint dual lands in M11, I think the facts clearly show that prices on Alpha and Beta dual lands would not be negatively affected.   If anything, I think they would go up since they would be legal in standard, and the demand for pimp duals, the demand for the A/B elite prints, which far outstrips supply, would increase.  Prices, accordingly, would increase.

Prices only go down if the supply for a good is fungible or a perfect substitute.   Alpha and Beta Underground Seas are not perfect substitutes, to say, Unlimited Seas or M16 Seas or FTV Seas, if they were to print the latter.   They are functionally simiilar, but the demand is different.    

You misrepresent my position.  I never say that reprints don't negatively affect price.   What I say is that

"The Reserved List neither preserves value nor collectability, at least, not to the extent that its defenders imagine. "  There are times when reprints have no appreciable effect on price, and times when prices actually go up.   The conventional wisdom is that prices always go down because supply increases.  Experience has taught that this is not always the case, and the principle point of my article was to demonstrate this fact, and the consequence of the Reserved List on the potential future viability of Legacy. 

 

[Killane]

The price of legacy is at an all time high yet the latest GP had over 2k players. In comparison to 10 proxy vintage the price of legacy might actually be higher depending on your deck choice.

10 proxy won't allow every deck to be played without some expense but the same can be said of legacy. Do you wanna play imperial recruiters, loyal retainers, tabernacles, ravages of war, rolling earthquake, etc. to play your first deck choice? It's like needing the imperial seal or the set of mana drains in vintage to compete with your first deck choice within proxy limits.

If the goal is to grow vintage and the thousands of active legacy players aren't coming over to vintage its probably the lack of tournaments more than anything since they are willing to drop a lot of money on legacy.

The question seems to be more than anything is how do we get more vintage tournaments going? Is it possible to get enough tournaments started while still keeping the proxy system? It seems for wizards to get on board with the vintage tournament scene we need sanctioned events which would mean no proxy events. This leads to needing reprints for P9, Bazaars, Workshops, and Drains.

As it stands now a legacy player that has a collection that enables multiple legacy deck choices should have little problem playing proxy vintage. Vintage events are just few and far between right now.

Whiel the net cost may be as high or higher, there's a real difference between spending 800 on 15-20 dual lands and 800 on a single card.