[Free Articles] Thoughts on Breaking the Reserve List & Solutions to the High Pr

[Troy_Costisick]

May I direct you to this article. It examines the cost of current high-end Standard decks (no cards on the RL, everything still in print and legal in every format). LSV's "Boss Naya" and Patrick Chapin's "UW Control" decks are both over $600.

So a play set of Goyfs and a playset of Trops.  Those 75 card decks are equal to 8 widely played cards in Vintage or Legacy.  I'm not seeing a real equivilancy there.  Espcially since drafts and sealed tournaments are still adding to the supply of those cards every day.  No such luck for Goyf and Trop.

Peace,

-Troy

[CorwinB]

There's a huge difference between $600 and $4000. I think that at some point, a line has to be drawn on what are reasonable costs for a format, and while I don't know where that line should be drawn, I do feel we're fast approaching it already.

Yes, there is a difference. But there will always be people who deride the game as purely money-based, or who feel they are cut out of a format because of the price. If this argument is deemed receivable for Legacy, then it is only fair that the same complaint, when done about pricey Mythics and their impact on Standard should be addressed in the same way. Your "reasonable cost" may not be the same as mine, or the same as a random FNM player who would love to make the jump to the next level but feels top-end Standard decks are too expensive already.

So a play set of Goyfs and a playset of Trops.  Those 75 card decks are equal to 8 widely played cards in Vintage or Legacy.

My point is that there will always be people priced out of a given format, even Standard. I haven't seen drafting reducing the price of high-end Mythics like BSA a lot. IIRC, the BSA started around $10 when Magic was released, and is now over $50.

[mistervader]

There's a huge difference between $600 and $4000. I think that at some point, a line has to be drawn on what are reasonable costs for a format, and while I don't know where that line should be drawn, I do feel we're fast approaching it already.

Yes, there is a difference. But there will always be people who deride the game as purely money-based, or who feel they are cut out of a format because of the price. If this argument is deemed receivable for Legacy, then it is only fair that the same complaint, when done about pricey Mythics and their impact on Standard should be addressed in the same way. Your "reasonable cost" may not be the same as mine, or the same as a random FNM player who would love to make the jump to the next level but feels top-end Standard decks are too expensive already.

So a play set of Goyfs and a playset of Trops.  Those 75 card decks are equal to 8 widely played cards in Vintage or Legacy.

My point is that there will always be people priced out of a given format, even Standard. I haven't seen drafting reducing the price of high-end Mythics like BSA a lot. IIRC, the BSA started around $10 when Magic was released, and is now over $50.

Which is why I hope that as we debate back and forth (productively, I might add) on the current reprint policy governing Wizards, a median could be reached. At some point, an agreeable line has to be drawn, especially since I find it a bit weird that what was once the "affordable alternative to Vintage" is now quickly approaching the same price tag as a Vintage deck.

Consider me on the fence on this one. I like that my cards have value, but I don't like that I have only nine people to play against when I have a tournament in the Philippines. Considering how people here balk when entrance fees are anywhere above $7, you have to understand where my region is coming from, I hope. And no, we haven't had a proxy tournament here in three years.

[DubDub]

There's a huge difference between $600 and $4000. I think that at some point, a line has to be drawn on what are reasonable costs for a format, and while I don't know where that line should be drawn, I do feel we're fast approaching it already.

Yes, the difference is that the $600 dollar investment is worth that much due to Wizards' support and SCG's support with the string of $5Ks, of which the majority goes away when they rotate out of Standard.
The $4000 dollar investment has value because people want the cards.

May I direct you to this article. It examines the cost of current high-end Standard decks (no cards on the RL, everything still in print and legal in every format). LSV's "Boss Naya" and Patrick Chapin's "UW Control" decks are both over $600.

So a play set of Goyfs and a playset of Trops.  Those 75 card decks are equal to 8 widely played cards in Vintage or Legacy.  I'm not seeing a real equivilancy there.  Espcially since drafts and sealed tournaments are still adding to the supply of those cards every day.  No such luck for Goyf and Trop.

Peace,

-Troy

I don't think there are many M10 packs getting cracked right now, and anyway 'Goyfs and Trops are available at whatever the market price is, so what's the problem?  High prices are a reaction to increased demand.

We have already seen what the introduction of a cost-saving measure (the proxy system) does: lower investment, lower retention, lower support.  Power moving from the US to Europe.  Reprints alone will only provide a better substitute for playing with Power than proxies (assuming that they're aesthetically more pleasing than the average proxy).  The key is that there are actions that can be taken to make playing Vintage more attractive.  Those are the actions that need to be taken to improve the size and quality of the Vintage community.

The real cause of high prices of power is their collectibility.  Lowering their value to collectors without lowering their value to playerrs would get more power into the hands of players, for a lower cost.  Come up with a way to do that, and you will have saved Vintage.

[Troy_Costisick]

Your "reasonable cost" may not be the same as mine, or the same as a random FNM player who would love to make the jump to the next level but feels top-end Standard decks are too expensive already.

That's very true, which is why I think this will be debated until WotC actualy does reprint Duals or Tabernacle or Time Vault or whatever.  But that aside, anyone can see getting 75 cards for $600 that grants you access to the upper eschelons of the most widely played format is a much more fair price of entry than getting 8 cards for $600 that won't even grant you access to a more sparsely played format with much lower payouts.  "Fair" is a relative terms, so let's examine it relatively.  Is getting 75 for $600 better than getting 8 for $600?  Is having 100% of a top deck in the most popular format better than having 11% of a deck in a less played format?

My point is that there will always be people priced out of a given format, even Standard. I haven't seen drafting reducing the price of high-end Mythics like BSA a lot. IIRC, the BSA started around $10 when Magic was released, and is now over $50.

Yes, I agree.  There will always be people priced out.  However, the number of people priced out by $600 is much fewer than the number priced out by $4000.

I don't think there are many M10 packs getting cracked right now, and anyway 'Goyfs and Trops are available at whatever the market price is, so what's the problem?  High prices are a reaction to increased demand.

And Wizards has an incentive to meet that demand with more product.  That's business.  It's their intelectualy property.  They own the rights to it.  Consulting fans, while often a good idea, is not required for them to make a decision regarding what they own.  If there is demand for a product, WotC has every right and reason to meet that demand.

[BruiZar]

$600 deck that is worthless after 2 years is a worst investment than a $4000 deck that keeps its value (or increases in value) even after 10 years. Would you rather buy stock that is cheap now but will be worth even less in 2 years or would you rather buy stock from a company that is more expensive but never really goes down?

I would like to know which formats are dying, because as it stands, legacy, vintage and extended are all played very regularly in the Netherlands.

[DubDub]

I don't think there are many M10 packs getting cracked right now, and anyway 'Goyfs and Trops are available at whatever the market price is, so what's the problem?  High prices are a reaction to increased demand.

And Wizards has an incentive to meet that demand with more product.  That's business.  It's their intelectualy property.  They own the rights to it.  Consulting fans, while often a good idea, is not required for them to make a decision regarding what they own.  If there is demand for a product, WotC has every right and reason to meet that demand.

So the question is, do they see themselves as a producer of Legacy staples?  Or of standard legal sets?  It may not be in their best interests to support a format that doesn't generate sales of Zendikar, Worldwake, ROE, 'Lights' block etc at the same rate that Standard/Extended do.  I freely admit that there's money to be made in reprinting Duals.  That doesn't mean it's in their best interests to do so.  There may be more money in supporting Legacy/Vintage at their current level, and continuing to extract the majority of their revenue from Standard/Extended.

[Troy_Costisick]

So the question is, do they see themselves as a producer of Legacy staples?  Or of standard legal sets? 

I imagine they see themselves as the producers of Magic: The Gathering and everything that entails. 

$600 deck that is worthless after 2 years is a worst investment than a $4000 deck that keeps its value (or increases in value) even after 10 years. Would you rather buy stock that is cheap now but will be worth even less in 2 years or would you rather buy stock from a company that is more expensive but never really goes down?

Worthless to you maybe, but perhaps not the person who bought it.  That's a value judgement.  Besides, the issue isn't value over time, but barrier to entry.

[DubDub]

Here's a hypothesis:
Announcing the abolishment of the Reserve policy, without also reprinting power, would cause more power to end up in the hands of players (as opposed to collectors), at a lower price.
My thinking is that the Reserve policy protects the collectibility of power, not their playability.  While all players value their cards at least somewhat for their collectibility, they don't do so at the same level as non-playing collectors.
However, I haven't factored in the loss of credibility that would accompany such an announcement, it may not be worth it to Wizards to help players by taking that step.

[dangerlinto]

I don't think there are many M10 packs getting cracked right now, and anyway 'Goyfs and Trops are available at whatever the market price is, so what's the problem?  High prices are a reaction to increased demand.

And Wizards has an incentive to meet that demand with more product.  That's business.  It's their intelectualy property.  They own the rights to it.  Consulting fans, while often a good idea, is not required for them to make a decision regarding what they own.  If there is demand for a product, WotC has every right and reason to meet that demand.

So the question is, do they see themselves as a producer of Legacy staples?  Or of standard legal sets?  It may not be in their best interests to support a format that doesn't generate sales of Zendikar, Worldwake, ROE, 'Lights' block etc at the same rate that Standard/Extended do.  I freely admit that there's money to be made in reprinting Duals.  That doesn't mean it's in their best interests to do so.  There may be more money in supporting Legacy/Vintage at their current level, and continuing to extract the majority of their revenue from Standard/Extended.

Here's a dirty secret for you

R&D members liike eternal formats too.

Does anyone think they make a card like Lodestone Golem and then throw up their hands and say "Oh my!  I had no idea that would be good in Vintage!"  Does anyone not think they are fully aware a card like Spell Pierce has a chance to be very good in eternal formats and less and less so in Standard?    The list goes on...

It's not like they don't know the formats exist or even pretend like they don't.  They are already a producer of eternal staples.  Not nearly to the effect that they are producers of Standard (or even extended) staples - but they do throw the eternal communities enough bones.  Maybe, just maybe, they'd feel eternal fomats need a bigger treat. (I was going to write "bigger bone" but I simply couldn't do it)

[Nehptis]

This is my prediction as to what will transpire.

WOTC will announce an update to the Reserve Policy.

The update will allow them to remove certain cards from the list that could be re-printed in future "high print run" sets, including Dual lands.

It will also, re-assure collectors that rare cards like P9 will NOT be reprinted in "high-print run" sets.  But, these cards will be eligible to be reprinted in special sets / promos like FTV / Judge Awards.

The above will be justified by WOTC referencing their "voice of the customer" sessions (meetings with Ben and Steve) to assess the interests of the MTG player and collector communities.

------------------------------------
This type of re-action is typical.  WOTC sees the need to unburden themselves from past policies and promises that restrict their perceived future growth (e.g., the current Reserved List). But, they "spin" this change in policy in a way that seems to be a win/win/win.

Win 1 = WOTC unburdens themselves from currently not being able to re-use their own intellectual property.  E.g., Reprints!

Win 2 = Players will benefit by increased supply via reprints.

Win 3 = Collectors are assured that the rarest and most valuable cards will not be subject to "high print runs".

Obviously, Collectors assume the most risk in this scenario.  And WOTC assumes the least risk and gains the most benefit.  But, that's business my friends!


BTW, I own Full UL Power and a Full Set of 3rd Dual lands.  I think the RL should be abolished, and reprints should occur.  Format health>Collectability.

[bosoxdave]

$600 deck that is worthless after 2 years is a worst investment than a $4000 deck that keeps its value (or increases in value) even after 10 years. Would you rather buy stock that is cheap now but will be worth even less in 2 years or would you rather buy stock from a company that is more expensive but never really goes down?

Worthless to you maybe, but perhaps not the person who bought it.  That's a value judgement.  Besides, the issue isn't value over time, but barrier to entry.

Part one of your statement is almost exclusively false, 90+% of expensive rares drop significantly in price when they rotate out of standard.  Part two of your statement is spot one.

[Suicideking]

$600 deck that is worthless after 2 years is a worst investment than a $4000 deck that keeps its value (or increases in value) even after 10 years. Would you rather buy stock that is cheap now but will be worth even less in 2 years or would you rather buy stock from a company that is more expensive but never really goes down?

I would like to know which formats are dying, because as it stands, legacy, vintage and extended are all played very regularly in the Netherlands.

Yeah buying tarmogoyfs back when they were is standard was clearly a bad investment.  I certainly wouldnt want to tie up 4k in stock that stays as stagnant as power has in the last few years.  Ive made far more money buying and selling standard and extended cards then I have vintage.

[Killane]

$600 deck that is worthless after 2 years is a worst investment than a $4000 deck that keeps its value (or increases in value) even after 10 years. Would you rather buy stock that is cheap now but will be worth even less in 2 years or would you rather buy stock from a company that is more expensive but never really goes down?

I would like to know which formats are dying, because as it stands, legacy, vintage and extended are all played very regularly in the Netherlands.

Yeah buying tarmogoyfs back when they were is standard was clearly a bad investment.  I certainly wouldnt want to tie up 4k in stock that stays as stagnant as power has in the last few years.  Ive made far more money buying and selling standard and extended cards then I have vintage.

Goyf's are the exception, nto the rule. 90% of rares drop considerably once rotated out of standard, as what's playable there is abovously not always playable in Eternal

[BruiZar]

From an investment point of view, power is not a smart choice due to the fact that the format isn't moving a lot. Format volatility is required and reprinting does help volatility due to lower barrier of entry. It just feels like a big stab in the back and a sacriligious move to reprint the most valuable  cards in mtg history. Besides that, there are going to be riots for FTV Power because vendors will easily charge $1000 to $1500 for a sealed set even though the retail value wotc intended will be something like $35. Lets suppose that reprinting power does. How exactly do you think they can do it without causing major panic in the magic community?

FTV: Power is obviously a bad choice. Making them Mythic rares in a core set, means the coreset will be either sold out so there will be nothing to draft, OR they will increase print runs which causes ABU power to decrease even more. The only way I see this happening is if they were ultra-mythic and printed in the last set of a block to decrease the amount of boosters drafted. Thats still a bad idea though. i'd just issue them as pro tour and GP prizes for a while. (Not the attendance promos but an actual prize)

[CorwinB]

This is my prediction as to what will transpire.

WOTC will announce an update to the Reserve Policy.

The update will allow them to remove certain cards from the list that could be re-printed in future "high print run" sets, including Dual lands.

It will also, re-assure collectors that rare cards like P9 will NOT be reprinted in "high-print run" sets.  But, these cards will be eligible to be reprinted in special sets / promos like FTV / Judge Awards.

The above will be justified by WOTC referencing their "voice of the customer" sessions (meetings with Ben and Steve) to assess the interests of the MTG player and collector communities.

Two things : if they break their policy in a big way, who will seriously believe them to keep their word in the future ? "Ok, we lied and we are reprinting dual lands, but honest Black Lotus is out of question. Trust us on this.". Fool  me once... PR-wise, they would be better off scratching the entire RL.

Second thing is that I wouldn't consider Ben Bleiweiss, General Manager of Inventory & Acquisitions for StarCityGames.com, a "voice of the customer". Currently, eternal staples are hard to get even for SCG : Power can tie a lot of money in one place, and Legacy staples like Dual Lands, Tabernacle or Goyfs are in short supply, which means they are "buy high, sell high" items with a decent, but not overwhelming margin. Lack of items is also building consumer impatience and insatisfaction toward the big sellers. If tomorrow Wizards decides to print "FtV:Lands" (with foils of one of each duals, Tabernacle, LoA, Tolarian, Workshop and Bazaar), with a MSRP of $35 and a 20k print run, how much does SCG stand to win on this ? They are currently selling FtV:Exiled at 3 times the MSRP ! I don't see them seeing FtV:Lands at less than $300, and it would still sell out at this price.

[Nehptis]

This is my prediction as to what will transpire.

WOTC will announce an update to the Reserve Policy.

The update will allow them to remove certain cards from the list that could be re-printed in future "high print run" sets, including Dual lands.

It will also, re-assure collectors that rare cards like P9 will NOT be reprinted in "high-print run" sets.  But, these cards will be eligible to be reprinted in special sets / promos like FTV / Judge Awards.

The above will be justified by WOTC referencing their "voice of the customer" sessions (meetings with Ben and Steve) to assess the interests of the MTG player and collector communities.

Two things : if they break their policy in a big way, who will seriously believe them to keep their word in the future ? "Ok, we lied and we are reprinting dual lands, but honest Black Lotus is out of question. Trust us on this.". Fool  me once... PR-wise, they would be better off scratching the entire RL.

WOTC wouldn't be breaking their promise in a big way.  In a "big way" implies killing the RL completely.  I'm suggesting that they will re-vamp it to allow them the flexibility of prinitng certain cards in any set (e.g., high print runs) while "protecting" high value cards by only considering them for inclusion in special sets / promos (e.g., low print runs).  It is in their best interest to not box themselves in a corner any more.  They need to be able to re-use their IP at will.  They could soften that blow to collectors by suggeting that certain cards would be only part of low print run sets.

Second thing is that I wouldn't consider Ben Bleiweiss, General Manager of Inventory & Acquisitions for StarCityGames.com, a "voice of the customer".

Sure he is, Ben reps the Collector voice.  Steve the Vintage/Legacy player voice.

[CorwinB]

WOTC wouldn't be breaking their promise in a big way.  In a "big way" implies killing the RL completely.  I'm suggesting that they will re-vamp it to allow them the flexibility of prinitng certain cards in any set (e.g., high print runs) while "protecting" high value cards by only considering them for inclusion in special sets / promos (e.g., low print runs).

Allowing themselves to reprint some of the expensive staples like dual lands in high print runs would certainly be a big change. Using the foil loophole to print cute stuff like Masticore and Phyrexian Negator is not the same as reprinting the old duals in M11 or in a huge Time Spiral print.

It is in their best interest to not box themselves in a corner any more.  They need to be able to re-use their IP at will.

Their best, long-term interest could also be to act true to their word and remain trustworthy.

They could soften that blow to collectors by suggeting that certain cards would be only part of low print run sets.

What would a "low print run" for Black Lotus be ? There were less than 30k printed... Even a 5k or 10k run (FtV) would mean a huge influx on the market.

Sure he is, Ben reps the Collector voice.  Steve the Vintage/Legacy player voice.

He's a SCG employee first and foremost, so there is at the very least the appearance of a conflict of interest. As I stated several times, SCG and other large dealers are the ones who stand to gain most from a FtV:Lands or FtV:Power reprint. I like Ben's "stock split" idea, though.

[DubDub]

I like Ben's "stock split" idea, though.

I don't.  Players exchanging originals for reprints does protect the originals' prices (whether it's a 1:1, 1:2 etc split determining the amount of protection), but Wizards ends up with the originals.

Maybe if Wizards stamped cards that had been 'redeemed' and then redistributed them so they couldn't be 'redeemed' again?  I think that would cause a transfer of reprints and stamped cards going to players, and non-stamped originals going to collectors, or being held by Wizards.  Also, unless redemption depended on card quality worse looking cards would be redeemed first, making them more likely to be redistributed to players.

Not to mention the myriad problems with distribution and logistics.

Edit: Typo

[Nehptis]

Their best, long-term interest could also be to act true to their word and remain trustworthy.

Put yourselves in their position for a moment. Consumer trust is important.  But, sometimes you need to take a fresh look at old "promises" that were clearly made within a very specfic set of circumstances and their market postion at the time.  That has changed.  And they will re-assess those promises in the best interest of their brand.

What would a "low print run" for Black Lotus be ? There were less than 30k printed... Even a 5k or 10k run (FtV) would mean a huge influx on the market.

WOTC has no reason to be specific.  Details are what got them into this RL mess to begin with.

I like Ben's "stock split" idea, though.

In theory it may be a decent idea.  In practice, the logistics of executing on that idea would be a nightmare.

Does anyone (not under an NDA) have an idea as to when we could see some movement from WOTC on the RL topic?

[AmbivalentDuck]

In theory it may be a decent idea.  In practice, the logistics of executing on that idea would be a nightmare.

That hasn't stopped them in the past.  At one point, banned cards from standard could be redeemed for a pack of the set they were from.

[CorwinB]

Put yourselves in their position for a moment. Consumer trust is important.  But, sometimes you need to take a fresh look at old "promises" that were clearly made within a very specfic set of circumstances and their market postion at the time.  That has changed.  And they will re-assess those promises in the best interest of their brand.

Their position is that they have never made that much money, the game is booming on all fronts, both casual and competitive, and both M10 and Zendikar were awesome success. The market for Standard singles, coupled with the popularity of drafts ensures that packs are bought and opened at an enormous rate. Clearly, they are not in a position where they have to renege the RL policy "in the best interest of their brand", as said brand is looking pretty good.

What would a "low print run" for Black Lotus be ? There were less than 30k printed... Even a 5k or 10k run (FtV) would mean a huge influx on the market.

WOTC has no reason to be specific.  Details are what got them into this RL mess to begin with.

So basically "trust us", although they would already be in the middle of breaking an official policy ? My question was not rethoric, though. You mentioned them pledging to not print high-value items from the RL (Power and near-Power like Workshop, Bazaar, Drains...) unless in "small runs", but those items are already in such small quantities that even a FtV-like print run represents a non-trivial proportion of the initial amount.

[Tha Gunslinga]

Does anyone (not under an NDA) have an idea as to when we could see some movement from WOTC on the RL topic?

No, but I can tell you what will almost definitely happen, based on how Wizards does things and has done things in the past.

The obvious suspects will not be reprinted.  P9, Bazaar, Shop, LoA.  Probably not Drain, probably not Imp Seal, though that's always possible.  Tabernacle seems unlikely as well.  Wizards isn't going to dive in to this; they're going to test the waters, which is what they're doing with Negator and Masticore.  Those two cards tell us quite a bit.  They're not worth much.  Negator is $2-3, Masticore is $4-5, and neither is seeing much if any play, so no one's really speculating on them.  They're old, but not THAT old.  Mildly hard to find if you don't use ebay or online stores, but not really difficult to find otherwise.  Casually playable, great back in the old days, but not currently relevant.  Reprinting those will not scare tournament players, will not piss off collectors, will not freak out speculators, will not do ANYTHING except let people know that Wizards is sticking its toe in the water.  Both cards already exist in foil, but I wouldn't imagine the new ones will affect the price of foils, because both are iconic cards with iconic pictures, and the new ones will be ugly (at least in my opinion) and won't really hurt the price of the originals.  Negator already exists in Judge foil, which is $10-15, and regular foil, which I think is around the same.  All prices are ebay, btw.  Masticore is $20-25 in foil, but I wouldn't expect it to drop much either, and the people who have foil ones aren't going to dump them and buy the new ones.  Supply of Urza's Destiny foils is fairly limited as well; that was what, 11 years ago?

So, the real question is, where does Wizards go from here?

First of all, we have to establish that there are two basic types of Magic consumers.  Type A are the players.  They play the game, primarily.  They may trade, buy, sell, whatever, but when they do that their primary goal is to acquire cards for decks.  The vast majority of Magic consumers are players.  The second type is the dealers.  They buy, sell, trade, but aim for profit when they do so.  Collectors can belong to either category.  Some collectors look for the cards, and don't really care what they pay, whereas some collectors will look to pick up particular cards, but only at a certain price point.  I am a dealer.  I will buy any card, as long as I can make something on it.  Magic does need both types to function, since without dealers the players won't get what they need to play with, and without players the dealers won't have anyone who wants their cards.  Collectors can fit into either category, but also, as I believe Ben Bleiweiss pointed out, there aren't that many strict collectors out there, for reasons I don't see a need to reiterate.

So, we have two types of consumers, the players and the dealers.  Dealers can play, players can deal, but generally either you're looking for specific cards at any reasonable price, or you're acquiring cards to make a profit.

The players aren't really going to worry too much about reprints.  Most of them are perfectly fine with their collections being worth whatever they're worth, and they're pretty down with getting access to the crazy old stuff that's otherwise fairly hard to find.  Most dealers are going to be at least somewhat worried about reprints, just because people tend to worry about the unknown, and if you're sitting on a pile of dual lands, you're going to get worried when you hear talk about reprints, just because you can imagine them crashing overnight.

Fortunately, Wizards cares about both the dealers and the players.  Wizards may do some interesting things with reprints here and there, but they've ALMOST never done anything that seriously hurt the secondary market value of a card, and when they did, it's never been very serious.  Here are a few examples:

Berserk
Berserk was around $15 for Unlimited when it was unrestricted.  It quickly jumped to $30, and eventually topped out at $45-50.  When Berserk was printed in the From the Vault set last year, all versions lost value, with Unlimited dropping to $25-30 eventually.  However, this did take a while for it to drop, and the foil version is still worth $15-25.

Underworld Dreams
Underworld Dreams was around $35-40, which was VERY high considering how little play it saw, and its rarity being uncommon rather than rare.  Dreams was reprinted in 8th Edition as a rare, which was absolutely shocking at the time.  Legends versions immediately dropped, and the 8th ones started at $12-15, but quickly dropped.  Underworld Dreams was reprinted in 9th, 10th, and M10, and is currently a $.50-$1 rare, while the Legends versions are $8-10.  The fact that it sees no competitive play anywhere makes this seem a bit high if anything, but shows you what kind of staying power prices have.

Verdant Force
Verdant Force was at least $5-7 when it was Extended Legal.  It dropped a little, but then when it was reprinted and saw no T2 play it crashed down to $1, where it currently resides.

Pithing Needle
Pithing Needle was $18-20 when it was Standard-Legal, dropping to $10-12 upon rotation.  It was reprinted in 10th edition, where it dropped to $8-10, but it crashed when it was reprinted in M10, due to the incredible quantity of M10 that was opened.  Pithing Needle is currently $3-4.


So, while cards do get reprinted and drop, generally it does take a fair amount of time for them to go down, and 2 out of the 4 examples here are of virtually unplayable cards.  Underworld Dreams is pretty irrelevant, and Verdant Force would probably still be worth something if it weren't outclassed by a zillion crazy big creatures that have been printed since then.  The one that dropped the least is Berserk, which makes sense for two reasons.  Berserk is the most recent example, and the supply of FtV: Exiled is much lower than the number of rares printed in base sets.  If, say, The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale were printed in M11, of course it would tank ridiculously, because there would be an infinite number out there, and while I'm sure it would be somewhat T2-playable, no Type 2-legal rare is going to be $250, which is what NMish English Tabernacles are right now.

Obviously there have been many reprints that have gained value, such as Reflecting Pool, but I'm not going to go into those.

So Wizards WILL be getting deeper into reprinting old cards, and will either eventually abolish the Reserved List, or keep doing what they're doing with Negator/Masticore and reprinting them as foils.  However, Wizards has no interest in scaring people off Magic.  

Things you will NOT see:

From the Vault: Duals
why?  Too much, too soon.  Too many players have too much cash invested in dual lands.  A set of 40 Revised duals in average condition is around $1400, and that's too much for Wizards to mess around with.
What you may see at some point are dual lands as Judge foils, or potentially all-foil EDH decks with one dual each, at fairly high MSRPs, or powerful dual variants like the shocklands.  The thing about duals is that there are a TON out there.  Yes, they are expensive, but it's not difficult to find them, and I don't think Wizards will see any urgency to reprint them.

Power 9 reprints
Yeah, that would be the end of Magic for a lot of people.  Wizards isn't going to cause a panic anytime soon.

Stock splits or whatever.
Too much hassle.  Wizards hasn't done redemption programs since Urza block, when they axed half a dozen cards at once.  I mean, what happens if you mail in your dual land to get 2 to replace it, and it turns out to be fake?  What does Wizards do with giant piles of duals in the first place?  This seems impossibly unlikely.

Any sort of Collectors' Edition or World Championship decks again.
Why bother?  CE and WC are a hassle in that they're not tournament-legal, and Wizards gave up on the Champs decks a few years back and I don't think they're missed by many.  CE was a terrible idea because it let people turn them into very realistic fakes.

A Reserved List total repeal, at least soon.
Why would they?  They have a loophole big enough to drive a truck through in the whole "premium" thing.


What we probably will see:

Promo versions of reserved list cards and other old cards
There was a DCI foil Wasteland, right?  A DCI Jitte is just coming out now.  What's stopping Wizards from doing a Force of Will, or a Mox Diamond?

Judge foils of reserved list cards.
Well, they do those all the time, so it's not like they'd stop now.

From the Vaults, ad infinitum
It sells, people like them, why stop?

Planeswalker decks--Elspeth vs whoever
Again, they sell, people like them, etc.

Pack inserts of some sort.
So, Zendikar sold far beyond all expectations, and a lot of that was the 1 pack in 720 (roughly) that had a Mox in it.  Or a dual land, Chain Lightning, whatever.  I can't imagine Wizards NOT revisiting this.  And what's stopping them from printing a pile of foil Forces and sticking them in?  Or putting in old promo foils?  Who knows?  I wouldn't be surprised to see it.

Reprints in base sets of non-reserved cards.
The reserved list covers only rares, and it does not cover anything after Urza Block, and it also does not cover Portal sets. Furthermore, Wizards has been slamming the power of Type 2 cards upwards.  Shock used to be the standard burn spell, then Incinerate.  Now it's Lightning Bolt, a card I never expected to see reprinted.  Here's a list of cards that could easily be reprinted in M11, that wouldn't seriously hurt Type 2, don't have a massive secondary market value, and are not on the reserved list:
Chain Lightning
Three Visits
Personal Tutor
Serendib Efreet
Broodstar
Cruel Bargain
Ill-Gotten Gains
Scroll Rack
Crop Rotation
Swords to Plowshares
Ydwen Efreet

There are obviously infinitely more, but none of these would seriously wreck Type 2, and if Wizards can print Baneslayer Angel, surely they can reprint Scroll Rack.  Would they?  We shall see.

Technically Wizards can reprint Imperial Seal, Mana Drain, Imperial Recruiter, and Loyal Retainers in the next Type 2 set, but I wouldn't expect it.  Those all have $100+ secondary market values, and Wizards isn't going to mess with things like that yet.  Will they eventually?  Who knows?  For now, however, expect to see a gradual change.  Things happen gradually for a reason.  People won't freak out as much if Wizards slips in a few cards here and there.  "From the Vault: All the $100 cards" isn't going to happen, but perhaps "From the Vault: A Ton of Crazy old Legendary Creatures" will.  We can only wait and see.

Of course, the real elephant in the room is Tarmogoyf.  Tarmogoyf started out at $1, quickly rose to $5, then $10, then $15, then $20, eventually topping out at $40-50.  When it rotated out of Type 2 it dropped down to $20 or so, but started rising when Extended season came around, then kept rising due to its insane domination of Legacy, and is currently ebaying around $60-70 apiece.  Yes, it was future-shifted.  No, this does not mean it is GUARANTEED to be reprinted, merely that it may be.   No, Extended-legal rares normally aren't $60.  Yes, this is a special case.  Wizards has a number of options when it comes to Tarmogoyf.  They include:
Player Rewards Textless foil
Judge foil
Grand Prix participation foil
M11 reprint
From the Vaults/duel deck reprint
Legacy banning

All of these are totally possible.  I would bet on at least one happening within the next year, but I have no idea what it would be.  I don't recall Tarmogoyf being much of a Type 2 force when it was legal; its value was mostly other formats I believe.  It's totally possible that it could be reprinted, or set up as some sort of promo foil.  I don't see it ever going below $25, but we'll see what Wizards does.  As I said, I have no clue.  Tarmogoyf is its own special case; there's never been anything like it, and hopefully never will again.

[yukizora]

Chain Lightning
Three Visits
Personal Tutor
Serendib Efreet
Broodstar
Cruel Bargain
Ill-Gotten Gains
Scroll Rack
Crop Rotation
Swords to Plowshares
Ydwen Efreet

Swords to plowshares would bend the format with Path to Exile still there, I don't think it could be for M11, and I see you couldn't help putting your favorite card in there

[TheWhiteDragon]

I love Vintage.  In fact it is the ONLY format I play.  I play it for fun casually.  I play it on MWS.  I play it in tournaments, both big and local (though less big recently due to my area).  I also own 97% of every Vintage staple.  I am missing imperial seal, time vault, 3x bazaar, 4x workshop....and that's it.  I find proxies to be fine to fill in the 3-4 missing cards I could potentially have in certain decks.  Furthermore, I am not rich.  I have scrapped my money together and bought all of the vintage staples over the course of 9 years whenever I could justify the INVESTMENT.  I say this because I have sold my collection off twice to buy a concrete patio, pay student loans off, down payment on a house, etc.  Then I bought my whole collection back at relatively the same price (bargain hunting obviously).  Overall I have regularly liquidated $4000+ and reinvested it.  I see it as a stable stock (with MUCH better return over 10 years than actual stocks) that I can play with and enjoy while I own it.  Frankly, the day my $8000+ collection becomes worth $1000 overnight is not only the day I quit magic, but also the day my financial investments take a huge plummet crippling my future.  The reserve list is a guarantee from WotC that the money I invested will not turn into pennies overnight.  It would be akin to the FDIC saying that my bank bonds could be worth %10 overnight as a result of government policy changes.  Why would I EVER invest then?  It is a game.  It is fun.  People want to play and buy in at a good price.  But it is ALSO an investment.  I highly doubt many people would like to see their power fall in price just to attract more players (which if proxies couldn't do it, lower prices won't either).  If you really want to grow Vintage, support it.  Good prizes, sanctioned tourneys, etc.  That draws a crowd...not a "cheaper" format that has no tourneys or support from WotC/DCI.  In fact, the price of my cards being high and an investment are the only thing that has KEPT me in Vintage, and not just cracking a few packs to play standard and dropping the eternal formats.

[2nd_lawl]

I love Vintage.  In fact it is the ONLY format I play.  I play it for fun casually.  I play it on MWS.  I play it in tournaments, both big and local (though less big recently due to my area).  I also own 97% of every Vintage staple.  I am missing imperial seal, time vault, 3x bazaar, 4x workshop....and that's it.  I find proxies to be fine to fill in the 3-4 missing cards I could potentially have in certain decks.  Furthermore, I am not rich.  I have scrapped my money together and bought all of the vintage staples over the course of 9 years whenever I could justify the INVESTMENT.  I say this because I have sold my collection off twice to buy a concrete patio, pay student loans off, down payment on a house, etc.  Then I bought my whole collection back at relatively the same price (bargain hunting obviously).  Overall I have regularly liquidated $4000+ and reinvested it.  I see it as a stable stock (with MUCH better return over 10 years than actual stocks) that I can play with and enjoy while I own it.  Frankly, the day my $8000+ collection becomes worth $1000 overnight is not only the day I quit magic, but also the day my financial investments take a huge plummet crippling my future.  The reserve list is a guarantee from WotC that the money I invested will not turn into pennies overnight.  It would be akin to the FDIC saying that my bank bonds could be worth %10 overnight as a result of government policy changes.  Why would I EVER invest then?  It is a game.  It is fun.  People want to play and buy in at a good price.  But it is ALSO an investment.  I highly doubt many people would like to see their power fall in price just to attract more players (which if proxies couldn't do it, lower prices won't either).  If you really want to grow Vintage, support it.  Good prizes, sanctioned tourneys, etc.  That draws a crowd...not a "cheaper" format that has no tourneys or support from WotC/DCI.  In fact, the price of my cards being high and an investment are the only thing that has KEPT me in Vintage, and not just cracking a few packs to play standard and dropping the eternal formats.

The reserve list as it stands doesn't guarantee ANYTHING.  Since the reserved list's inception, Wizards has always reserved the right to print premium versions of the reserved cards(and has exercised that right, with judge foils, and more recently phyrexian negator), which means that ANY CARD  ON THE RESERVED LIST CAN BE PUT IN ANY BOX SET WITHOUT ANY POLICY CHANGE, since they all contain at least 1 foil. 

The ONLY thing that the reserved does is prevent wizards from putting cards in a "regular" set.  But even if there was no reserved list, none of the P9, or other vintage money cards are fit to reprint in standard since they are all comically overpowered.  The only cards that the reserve list is ACTUALLY protecting are old cards that are worth money but arent really playable.  Cards like Juzam Djin or random goofy rares from antiquities.