Mud should play neither Null Rod nor Juggernaut

[Smmenen]

Should this hand really be mulliganed?

What did I just say?   Yes.

In fact, this is another reason why the deck should not run Mana Vault.    Suppose Mana Vault is not in the deck.   

[meadbert]

So I did keep this hand.  What I did was open with Turn 1 Resistor + Chalice.  Basically I really wanted to resolve Chalice@1 so I led with Resistor.
Then turn 2 I planned to drop a second Resistor unless Fish dropped 2 moxen on turn 1.
Rod can be held till a Mox hits.  After that Fish has lost access to Hierarchs and Moxen.  They are working against 2 Resistors making Predator unrealistic.  They have lost access to Swords and Pierce.  They need 4 lands to play anything.

I am not sure why this hand is especially bad if you are playing against Wastelands.
I would say that in general Ancient Tomb is significantly better than City of Traitors, but if your opponent is going to Waste your turn 1 land, then City is better since you did not lose the 2 life.

Interesting comment about Mana Vault.  What would it be replaced with?

[Smmenen]

If City was Ancient TOmb, I would keep that hand. 

I like most hands with
1) double Ancient Tomb,
2) Ancient Tomb and Wasteland, or
3) Ancient TOmb and City of Traitors. 

Obviously, I like any hand with Workshop too.   

You don't keep hands, in general, that have:

1) City of Traitors by itself
2) City of Traitors * 2
3) City of Triators + Wasteland

Those are the three main hands you mulligan.   

[Norm4eva]

I'm a bad deckbuilder.

But, why wouldn't a proper substitute for Juggernaut, in a deck such as this, be something like Master of Etherium?

It costs colored mana (2U), okay.  But it seems like it'd be almost always larger and at least let you pick whether or not you actually need to swing, so you're not trying to punch your way through a field of Narcomebas.  I suppose it could get Pyroblasted or some jank but weren't you going to set CotV on 1 anyway?

[zeus-online]

colored mana is way harder to get then colorless in workshop decks. The master would most likely be a turn or two slower.

[Will]

But, why wouldn't a proper substitute for Juggernaut, in a deck such as this, be something like Master of Etherium?

I see a few problems with this, the first and probably most important thing is that it would require you to add color to the deck changing the all around card pool that you will be able to play with.  Personally, it makes no sense to play Juggernaut at all in my opinion but if you really want to put the card in your deck then its your choice.  With Juggernauts present in general it seems like you are more trying to play a Workshop Aggro deck which in its Brown form can only be compared to MUD because of its lack of color.  Master of Etherium may in the abstract be more powerful or sometimes more powerful than Juggernaut it makes you add blue which then brings about more powerful and better cards like Ancestral Recall and Tinker and with that you have changed deck types.  I could try my best to explain the pros/cons of this type of change but it seems more on topic to simply state that by changing Juggernaut to Master of Etherium you change a lot more than just 4 cards for 4 cards. 

It costs colored mana (2U), okay.  But it seems like it'd be almost always larger and at least let you pick whether or not you actually need to swing, so you're not trying to punch your way through a field of Narcomebas.  I suppose it could get Pyroblasted or some jank but weren't you going to set CotV on 1 anyway?

In saying this you are getting way too far ahead of yourself because you have as I previously said, changed the nucleus of your deck.  Not having to attack is a benefit but being forced into another color is certainly a bad thing when your deck is focused on consistent good hands where you only need to worry about how much mana you have available rather than worrying about the color and the amount.  The Pyroblast part can pretty much get taken out as that is one of the more situational and irrelevant cards because unless you are running a lot of Blue the chances of them getting any real value out of Pyroblast/ REB is pretty low and you having Chalice @1 in play makes this situation totally farfetched. 

[Norm4eva]

Hmm yeah, for some reason I looked at the decklist and went "Oh Academy is in there, you can tap for A BILLION BLUE, Master of Etherium is a sure-fire beatstick"  when really that's like one of two potential reliable blue sources.  My bad, /shirk

[meadbert]

Basically you would need to run a few Islands (perhaps instead of Ancient Tomb) and then run Solemn Simulacrum who is already decent in this deck.
Then with say 4 Island, 4 Solemn Simulacrum, Academy, Lotus and Sapphire you would have 11 blue sources.  So something like that could work, but it would be a different deck.

[Juggernaut GO]

why wouldn't a good player just lead with chalice @1 with that hand, then go nullrod, sphere, and then just win the game ?

[meadbert]

My concern was that Chalice@1 might get forced.
So if Chalice gets forced and then you drop Rod against Fish you are not looking good.
They could drop a Hierarch and then play out from under your own Sphere or Spheres while you are stuck under Sphere turn 2 with Rod out.

I saw none of those risks if I played Resistor and then Chalice@1.  They could not counter Chalice (since no ESG) so the only concern is countering Resistor which is not that bad.
I have already cut them off from Hierarch.  Then Rod can cut off any Moxen.  From there another Resistor should hit before Fish gets 3 lands so you are looking at worse case being turn 4 Predator which could be problematic.

[TheShop]

This hand is highly dependent on what they are playing as well for the order in which you will play your lock pieces.  You could lead with rod hoping it gets forced, then drop chalice0 and sphere.  Or you could lead with mox city sphere locking force out to drop chalice0.  Fear of waste does make this hand terrible...and I also am not a proponent of using city as a major mana source early.  You could play chalice0 hoping they counter to force through the rod + sphere (strong).  If rod resolves in hand#1, floating mana for chalice1 or waiting until turn 2 for chalice1 is good.

Having a clue as to what they are playing makes a big difference.  If you are on the play and they have "sac go"d you-lead with mox + chalice0 or sphere as bait, then try to drop rod if you fear pierce...this hand is very on the play unless they drop some jewelry. 

I am tempted to keep this hand and drop multiple locks on turn 1.  You have a higher chance of climbing out of this than they do, and as previously mentioned-rod does not have to come down.  You could drop Mox + city + vault + chalice +sphere and pass and rip juggs or lodestone off the top.

[Juggernaut GO]

My concern was that Chalice@1 might get forced.
So if Chalice gets forced and then you drop Rod against Fish you are not looking good.
They could drop a Hierarch and then play out from under your own Sphere or Spheres while you are stuck under Sphere turn 2 with Rod out.

I saw none of those risks if I played Resistor and then Chalice@1.  They could not counter Chalice (since no ESG) so the only concern is countering Resistor which is not that bad.
I have already cut them off from Hierarch.  Then Rod can cut off any Moxen.  From there another Resistor should hit before Fish gets 3 lands so you are looking at worse case being turn 4 Predator which could be problematic.

I must have been responding to an older post, I was under the impression that people were suggesting that you mulligan that hand against tezz, which seems really absurd.  Fish, I can see for sure that you would want some kind of beater in the opening hand.

[meadbert]

So I have been testing a ton of Mud recently.  Mostly I have been playing with the version listed here and the Expedition Map version here:
http://www.themanadrain.com/index.php?topic=40202.0


The only change that I made to the original list is I swapped out Needles in the board for Powder Kegs.

I am against Metalworker in mud right now because of what it does to you against Oath.  I have not tested Metalworker that much.
Mostly I am focusing on the two decks here neither of which has worker and various hybrids between them.

The original question has to do with Null Rod and Serum Powder.  Each is so good, yet there is dis-synergy.  Steve chose to run Rod while I choose Powder.
This largely affected the other differences.

Steve used Null Rod, City of Traitors, Chalice of the Void, Tangle Wire and Juggernaut.   (Orginal list had Mana Vault and Mana Crypt)
I used Serum Powder, Mishra's Factory, Expedition Map, Crucible of Worlds and Smokestack.  (I also ran Karn)

My list performed better over all, but I think Steve's is closer to optimal.  Essentially Steve's list is usually better, but with mulliganing issues.

Here is what I have found in testing:
1)  4 City of Traitors is problematic for mulliganing.  This is even worse in a deck with Null Rod.  So hands with Tomb, Shop and Academy are keepable.  What is keepable after that?  Steve says no to City + Wasteland.  What about City + Wasteland + Mox?  Probably not.  What about City + 2x Mox?  A Resistor or 2 and you are locked out.  Rod hurts.
City makes hands with Ancient Tomb + Rod much better because you can go turn 1 Rod, turn 2 Golem.  That is not enough of a reason to run them in general and 4 is certainly too many.  Lots of Resistors means you need to keep making land drops to play out from under your own locks.  City of Traitors makes a great deal of sense with Metalworker and no Rods where you can rely on Moxen + Worker to produce mana and the goal is acceleration.  When you are trying to play a longer game from under Spheres the last things you can afford are to either stop making land drops or to sacrifice your own lands without affecting your opponent's board.  With Smokestack City of Traitors makes more sense it can accelerate out a Stack and then sack to it later so you have no card disadvantage.  In a deck with Smokestack I would strongly consider some number of City of Traitors.  I believe City of Traitors was the root of both of the problem that Steve ran into.  The obvious one was bad mana which City was part of.
The second was the lack of a beater.  A deck with so many lock components should not need an early beater.  Going for a lock should be a good alternate strategy, but when you must start sacking City to play other lands, the long games become tougher.

2)  Tang Wire is amazing.  Usually you have 2 other artifacts that tap for free.  What this means is you pay 3 to force your opponent to tap 10 permanents over 4 turns which is huge.  Amazing against Oath.  Amazing against Drains.  Solid against Fish.  This card is just so good.  Strong synergy with Smokestack.
Two traditional problems are against Welder and Combo.  Welder barely exists in the format right now and Combo is already a strong matchup.

3)  Null Rod is really good.  Fighting Tinker is very doable in a deck with so much dedicated mana denial.  It took me a while to appreciate this because it used to be that fighting Tinker with mana denial was mostly a losing effort.  Now it is doable partly thanks to Golem.  Rod helps with this while hating on Vault/Key which are still not effectively fought with mana Denial.

4)  Smokestack is usually better than Juggernaut.  Juggs has advantages for sure.  First it dodges Pierce which is huge.  It is not uncommon to lose because turn 1 Smokestack is Pierced where Juggs could have won the game.  Second, Juggs is better against Dark Confidant.  That Juggs dodges Thorn is only rarely relevant since I tend to drop Smokestack in front of Thorn anyway.  For all the other reasons I mentioned earlier in this thread Smokestack is the better card.

5)  Chalice is amazing.


If I take the best cards from each list I end up with a hybrid similar to this:
1 Tolarian Academy
4 Ancient Tomb
1 Strip Mine
4 Wasteland
4 Mishra's Workshop
1 Black Lotus
1 Mox Ruby
1 Mox Jet
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Mox Emerald
1 Mox Pearl
4 Serum Powder
1 Sol Ring
4 Smokestack
3 Sculpting Steel
4 Tangle Wire
1 Trinisphere
4 Null Rod
4 Sphere Of Resistance
4 Thorn Of Amethyst
4 Chalice of the Void
4 Lodestone Golem
3 Other (Mana Crypt, City of Traitors, 4th Sculpting Steel, Mishra's Factory, Petrified Field and Karn, Silver Golem come to mind)

Basically this is Steve's list -(4 City of Traitors, Mana Crypt, Mana Vault, Razormane Masticore) + (4 Serum Powder, 3 Other)

At first glance there are 4 problems with this list.  Some are real and some more imaginary.
The problems are Powder/Rod dissynergy, lack of a clock, lack of synergy for Smokestack and fragility of the mana base.

Powder/Rod dissynergy exists, but is not enough to make me cut either one.  Powder/Rod dissynergy is no worse than Rod/Rod dissynergy and as amazing as Rod is I still prefer Powder.  Hands that start with turn 1 Mox, Shop, Powder, Resistor/Thorn/chalice@1 and then follow up with Smokestack are still strong.
Powder still taps to Wire and sacks to Smokestack.  It is a mana source to play out from under your own Resistors.
Serum Powder basically replaces City of Traitors.  With Powders it is trivial to mulligan into Ancient Tomb, Workshop or Academy.
It improves opening hands more than City of Traitors and is better in a long game where you would have had to sack City.

The lack of a clock is only barely a problem. 
Basically I pulled 4 Juggs and a Razormane Masticore from Steve's list limiting his clock and I pulled 4 Factories and 2 Karn from my list.
The result is a deck with little in the way of a clock.  This hurts the most in that it makes Mana Crypt much riskier to play.  Other than the loss of Mana Crypt this has implications for timed tournaments, but rarely leads to game losses.  I will point out that the clock is still faster than Uba Stax had and that was rarely a problem in timed games.  The problem here is Mana Crypt.

The lack of synergy for Smokestack is not much of a problem.  Basically if you can wipe their board and leave out several of your own permanents they should never recover anyway.  Typically you can sack Wires with few or no counters or Roded out artifacts for a while why they sack their needed mana sources.
Then when their board is clean you can Sack stack to itself perhaps after you have already Sculpting Steeled it.  Crucible is usually a win more with Smokestack out.
It improves Stack, but is not needed to make Stack playable.

The last problem is the fragility of the mana base.  This is the real problem.  Basically if you drop your own Rod and have Shop Wasted then you are potentially in a world of pain.  One strategy is to be conservative with Rod in such games.
Basically Rod is bad against Fish to begin with so really this just means being careful in the Shop mirror.

So for the last 3 cards my biggest concerns are the Shop mirror and to a lesser extent a clock.  The fist obvious answer is Juggernaut.  While I have convinced myself that Juggernaut is worse than Smokestack, that does not mean it does not belong at all.  The other option is MIshra's Factory.  Factory is a clock in general.  Also, Factory is a mana source that can help if Shop is Wasted and it can block and remove a Juggernaut in the mirror.  It is inferior to Juggernaut in both cases, but it does not trigger Oath.  Probably some number of Factories must be run just to increase the number of non Rodable mana source to more than 14.  17 seems much better.

Another possibility is to drop Sculpting Steels.  Originally I thought these were auto includes because they answer Leviathan, but I have found that there is so much mana denial in this list that Tinker can be tough to pull off anyway.  Furthermore Smokestack + Tangle Wire give some hope that Steve's list did not have.  For now I leave them in.

Here is the final list:
1 Tolarian Academy
4 Ancient Tomb
3 Mishra's Factory
1 Strip Mine
4 Wasteland
4 Mishra's Workshop
1 Black Lotus
1 Mox Ruby
1 Mox Jet
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Mox Emerald
1 Mox Pearl
4 Serum Powder
1 Sol Ring
4 Smokestack
3 Sculpting Steel
4 Tangle Wire
1 Trinisphere
4 Null Rod
4 Sphere Of Resistance
4 Thorn Of Amethyst
4 Chalice of the Void
4 Lodestone Golem

sideboard:
4 Crucible of Worlds
4 Leyline of the Void
7 ??? Possibly more mana.

[Will]

Maybe I'm just biased because I love Espresso Stax so much but why not just run that?  For 1 mana more than Juggernaut you can have Karn which is a better clock than Juggernaut so long as you have a few lock pieces in play.  Worrying about a clock also seems partially irrelevant when you are/should be playing a prison deck although you bypassed Crucible and are playing Mishra's Factory instead of Rishadan Port making it seem like you are concerned about dealing damage rather than letting the artifacts do the work for you.  Why is Sculpting Steel in your list?  I understand that 2 Lodestones are better than 1 etc. but you exclude good useful cards such as Crucible to play that which is only as good as the other cards you have in play along with increasing your chances of getting blown out against Nature's Claim or the like (Though G1 that's not super likely).  It's possible that I'm wrong on everything but having people outside of the thread who's opinions I value highly agreeing with me makes me think otherwise. 

[meadbert]

I agree with most of what you said.  Factories were the last 3 cards added and Sculpting Steel is somewhat suspect.

The main reason to play this over Espresso Stax is Null Rod.  Against most decks you will find that Rod gets countered and removed far more often than Crucible.
Of course against Fish and in the mirror you will badly wish you had Crucible.

I would say that Karn is better than Juggernaut, but I put neither in this list.  That Karn is slightly shut off by Rod is not that bad because he still swings for 4.
I kept Thorn instead.

Past that there are questions of do you run Keg or Steel.  Rod makes Keg much worse, but I would consider Keg in the board for Fish since Rod is likely to be boarded out.

I had not even considered Rishadan Port.  I might have to test that in place of Factory.

[yespuhyren]

Karn is a far harder first turn cast, can be blocked all day by any creature in the game, and is only situationally better than Juggernaut.  People have been talking shit about juggernaut since before I started playing Vintage in 2004 or so, and I've been more than happy with the results I've gotten over the years with him. 

Second of all, I really don't get why people DO NOT get Null Rod. 
Yes chalice shuts off moxes.  So you play Chalice at 0, play out your turn, then pass.

Let's pretend your opponent does one of these things.

Plays a Metalworker
Plays a Time Vault and/or Voltaic Key
Or anything else likes that.

Where exactly does Chalice negate Null Rod.  I've had Null Rods in Shop Aggro for years as a means to stop worker and other game-winning cards/combos, and the only decks I didn't play it in I was running Jester's Cap. 

I've given up really debating these cards.  People have always and will always talk crap about Null Rod and even more-so about Juggernaut. They are good in the right deck, and this is the kind of deck that really abuses them. 

[Smmenen]

I talk about that hand in my articles.  In fact, I drew a hand just like that.  If you read my article you know I said to muligan that hand.  

Steve, this verges very closely on spam.  Not everyone who reads TMD has premium SCG access, nor should they be required to in order to understand the logic of your posts.  If you'd like to elaborate on your assertion so everyone can appreciate your thinking, by all means, please do.  But this post conveys very little beyond an exhortation to buy premium access to read your articles, which isn't a useful contribution to this discussion.  -DA

FYI: The article in question was free at the time of this post.   People link to articles on the web all the time for conceptual elaboration.   To that extent, I was not urging people to buy premium.   

Here is the excerpt from this article :

Generally speaking, there are two kinds of hands where I lose with this deck:

1) Bad mana:

A good example would be this:

Wasteland, City of Traitors, Null Rod, Thorn of Amethyst, Juggernaut, Lodestone Golem, Sphere of Resistance

You have to mulligan this kind of hand. I’d keep a hand with two Moxen, City of Traitors, and spells, but you can’t keep that kind of hand. Even if one of the Spheres were a Mana Vault. It’s that kind of hand that makes Serum Powder tempting.

2) All lock parts and mana, but no beaters:

A good example would be this:

Ancient Tomb, Mishra’s Workshop, Wasteland, Chalice, Sphere of Resistance, Thorn of Amethyst, and Null Rod

You can pile on the Sphere effects, but sometimes you can’t seal the deal. And eventually, you’re opponent can play a Tinker, or something else sufficiently annoying to win the game. It’s important to have a way to seal the deal. Serum Powder can help you get closer to key creatures. But I like having 9 beaters. I wish I could find room for a 10th, to be honest. I run 9 beaters, and no less, to ensure that I’ll get one. I’m afraid of not being able to deal damage.

The sideboard is designed to deal with particular problems. Duplicant is for Oath and Tinker targets. Razormane is for the Fish matchup. Crucible is for the Workshop match. And the Tormod’s Crypt and Relic of Progenitus is for the Dredge matchup.

[Will]

Generally speaking, there are two kinds of hands where I lose with this deck:

1) Bad mana:

A good example would be this:

Wasteland, City of Traitors, Null Rod, Thorn of Amethyst, Juggernaut, Lodestone Golem, Sphere of Resistance

You have to mulligan this kind of hand. I’d keep a hand with two Moxen, City of Traitors, and spells, but you can’t keep that kind of hand. Even if one of the Spheres were a Mana Vault. It’s that kind of hand that makes Serum Powder tempting.

2) All lock parts and mana, but no beaters:

A good example would be this:

Ancient Tomb, Mishra’s Workshop, Wasteland, Chalice, Sphere of Resistance, Thorn of Amethyst, and Null Rod

You can pile on the Sphere effects, but sometimes you can’t seal the deal. And eventually, you’re opponent can play a Tinker, or something else sufficiently annoying to win the game. It’s important to have a way to seal the deal. Serum Powder can help you get closer to key creatures. But I like having 9 beaters. I wish I could find room for a 10th, to be honest. I run 9 beaters, and no less, to ensure that I’ll get one. I’m afraid of not being able to deal damage.

The sideboard is designed to deal with particular problems. Duplicant is for Oath and Tinker targets. Razormane is for the Fish matchup. Crucible is for the Workshop match. And the Tormod’s Crypt and Relic of Progenitus is for the Dredge matchup.

While the first type of hand is unavoidable and requires a mulligan for all MUD variants, it seems to me like the probability that you get a bad hand of the second variety is increased with your version as compared to Espresso Stax.  My reasoning for saying this is that your list of individual threats stands at 9 (4 Lodestone, 4 Juggernaut, 1 Razormane Masticore) without any of these cards you can't reliably gain ground.  If you compare this to Espresso Stax you see the difference which has 17 (4 Lodestone, 3 Karn, 2 Duplicant, 4 Smokestack, 3 Crucible).  Even if you don't consider Crucible as a threat in all situations (when you don't have Wasteland/Strip Mine) the deck still has 14 threats and also can mulligan better because of its Serum Powders.  What I'm saying with this post is that if you really only lose when you get a hand in category 1 or 2 then Espresso Stax would be a logically correct upgrade over the Meandeck MUD list you provided in the beginning of the article linked to in your post. 

[Prospero]

The title of this thread is a bold, and correct, statement.  You're being pushed away from it, and I'm not really sure why.  Your Shop list has cards that are intended for Shop Aggro now, as well as half a Shop Prison deck.  I would cut the Factories for Ports or Ghost Quarters, cut the Null Rods for business, cut the Sculpting Steels for Crucibles, and focus on locking the opponent out. 

Shop Aggro is not a good deck.  It may steal a win here or there, but I don't think it's capable of taking a 50+ man tournament down.  There is just too much that it can't do.

I have time to work on the MUD primer now, and should have it up in the coming days.

[coldcrow]

In my opinion the strength of Aggro-MUD is the extreme linearity in lock pieces and the high win percentage if on the play. In case it is on the draw the linear structure of the deck will ensure punishment of any subpar mulligans of the opponent.

On a side note Thorn of Amethyst also profits from running Juggernauts over Stack.

[meadbert]

Crucible may be better than Sculpting Steel although I am not convinced yet.

Using Steel to copy Resistor or Thorn can be crucial towards locking an opponent out.
Crucible needs Wasteland or Strip Mine to be effective and this deck has no tutor for Strip Mine.
With Expedition Map, Crucible is a no brainer.

I agree about Ghost Quarter and Port being better than Factory.  
Factory has two advantages.  First, it improves the clock making Mana Crypt less dangerous.  I did not play Crypt thus negating that advantage.
The second is that it can recur to block Juggernaut, Lodestone and Fish.  I did not play Crucible partially negating that advantage.
It is helpful against Dark Confidant.
Still Port is probably better.

I am still not thrilled with running 4 Rods in a deck with 11 Rodable artifacts, but which business do you suggest I try instead?  There is always Expedition Map to get Strip Mine which is good if I am running Crucibles.
Also Karn is very good once Rods are cut.

With Expedition Stax I found that Vault/Key was by far the biggest threat.  That list had neither main deck Chalice nor Rod so it was limited to mana denial and Smokestack for fighting Vault Key.
I have done some, but not much, testing with Smokestack and Chalice, but no Rods and I have also found that to be insufficient.  For instance in Uba Stax which can fight Vault/Key with Chalice, Smokestack and possibly Welder I ended up adding Null Brooch to deal with Vault/Key.  Brooch has less synergy without Uba Mask, but with multiple Spheres out it becomes very difficult for your opponent to play more than one spell a turn.
They have the option of EOT spell.  Next turn spell, but that is fought with Tangle Wire and there are fewer Instant Speed bombs that you must counter (Bounce being the main one.)

[MagiKarp]

I would cut the Factories for Ports or Ghost Quarters, cut the Null Rods for business, cut the Sculpting Steels for Crucibles, and focus on locking the opponent out.

While I cannot directly comment on the viability of Ghost Quarter/Ports over Factories since I run none of the above (I almost always play Mono-R Stax and so need those slots for colored mana), I would without a doubt rather have a card that cuts off more of my opponents mana than does anything else.

When the focus of the deck is locking the opponent out, Null Rods are the business. I have many times seen Null Rod come down as the final straw in a game where my opponent was trying to struggle out of a lock. It shuts off early acceleration, stops vault key combo dead in its tracks, and can be that last thing needed to seal the deal enough to get an opponent to concede. I can't imagine not running some number of them.

I was running both Sculpting Steel and Crucible for a short while, but only 9 spheres at that time. I kept a couple of crucibles main, removed steels all together, and went up to 13 spheres. I have been quite happy with the results. I believe you are absolutely correct when you say to focus on locking the opponent out, and that Crucible is better in that regard than Sculpting Steel.

[madmanmike25]

Well I guess I can say from personal experience that the title of this thread is incorrect, check out the MUD thread and you can see the list I played.  In so many mirror matches, Null Rod was beastly as well as keeping my Oath opponent from getting up to two mana.  I'm not saying Rod is better than activated abilities such as Karn/Trikes/etc., but if you do decide to run Null Rod you just have to keep that in mind when choosing cards for your deck.  Thats part of the reason why I DON'T like Serum Powders with Rods.  In fact I pretty much don't like Serum Powder at all.

And yes, Juggernaut can "steal" some wins here and there......and I'm certainly ok with that.  My deck is a hybrid that runs neither Crucibles nor Steels main.  Steel is another card I have issues with, since I prefer to play proactively and would rather see a real threat (aka finisher) than be forced to copy another Sphere.  I don't doubt Steels applications, they can be pretty good vs. Shops....or you can end up copying one of their spheres too.  Jack of all trades, master of none in my opinion.  Situationally awesome but mostly mediocre.

I don't feel the need to start a "MUD should play neither Serum Powder nor Sculpting Steel" thread. 

I know I've said it before but......Lodestone Golem has allowed MUD to take different strategies and still be successful.  I think some people are under the false impression that there is this one 'be-all-end-all' MUD list and that's just not true.  You don't have to play with Null Rod, and if you don't you should probably be running Karn.

[Smmenen]

Shop Aggro is not a good deck.  It may steal a win here or there, but I don't think it's capable of taking a 50+ man tournament down.  There is just too much that it can't do.

What about 350 player tournaments, like this one or 170 player ones, like this one ?  Or, 52 player one's, like this one ?

[Prospero]

Shop Aggro is not a good deck.  It may steal a win here or there, but I don't think it's capable of taking a 50+ man tournament down.  There is just too much that it can't do.

What about 350 player tournaments, like this one or 170 player ones, like this one ?  Or, 52 player one's, like this one ?

I don't play in Europe, and neither do you.  Proxies afford American Vintage players the opportunity to play whatever they please, with minimal investment comparitive to almost every other format.  If you're going to compare the American and the European Vintage metagames, I'd stop the conversation with you right here.  They're not the same, and to operate under the assumption that they are seems disingenuous at best.  When Shop Aggro, specifically Juggernauts, are forced to compete in a field full of power blue and combo decks they lose.  They lose because Jugernaut is not a quick enough clock, is not a lockpiece, and does not advance the board state enough for the Shop player to win.  Most major European tournaments are sanctioned - which means that you're going to have a field that is influenced by a lack of power, other staples, and expensive/rare cards.  In America all you need is a Plains and a Sharpie.

To reiterate what I said last year - I have a tremendous amount of respect for you as a blue player - with combo, GAT, Tezz, and other decks.  I think you put together good aggro decks for the format as well.  I don't think that you are a good Shop theorist, and I don't think that Meandeck MUD is a good deck.  I want more than a win at a 13 man tournament.  Results are all that matter, and there are no results in our metagame that lead me to believe that Juggernaut is a good card.

[Smmenen]

Shop Aggro is not a good deck.  It may steal a win here or there, but I don't think it's capable of taking a 50+ man tournament down.  There is just too much that it can't do.

What about 350 player tournaments, like this one or 170 player ones, like this one ?  Or, 52 player one's, like this one ?

I don't play in Europe, and neither do you.  Proxies afford American Vintage players the opportunity to play whatever they please, with minimal investment comparitive to almost every other format.  If you're going to compare the American and the European Vintage metagames, I'd stop the conversation with you right here.  They're not the same, and to operate under the assumption that they are seems disingenuous at best.  When Shop Aggro, specifically Juggernauts, are forced to compete in a field full of power blue and combo decks they lose.  They lose because Jugernaut is not a quick enough clock, is not a lockpiece, and does not advance the board state enough for the Shop player to win.  Most major European tournaments are sanctioned - which means that you're going to have a field that is influenced by a lack of power, other staples, and expensive/rare cards.  In America all you need is a Plains and a Sharpie.

I might be inclined to believe that there is a fundamental difference between the American and European metagame that would justify such an epistemology of ignorance if it weren't for the fact that according to the Bazaar of Moxen breakdown, we know exactly what people played, what % of the field was fully powered, budget etc.    Fully powered blue decks were the most popular decks in those tournaments, not close.   I think you are dramatically and hyperbolically overestimating the differences between the two metagames.   And the budget/underpowered portion of the field was any more significant than what appears at the Vintage Champs.

I respect you as a Workshop player and a Workshop theorist, Nick, but I think have the same biases that alot of players have when they are wedded or expert in their archetype.   People who play the same deck for a long time develop opinions that are hard to overcome or see beyond.  I'm not going to list my bona fides as a Workshop player, except to mention that I helped develop the first modern Stax deck in 2002-2003.   

The difference between me and you is that I don't claim a card is correct or incorrect.  I evaluate cards always in context.   You, and others, say that card so and so is incorrect (see the title of this thread or your posts in this thread).   In my opinion, Juggernaut is sometimes bad and sometimes good.  It depends on the cards you surround it with and the metagame you play in.   I understand that you have strong opinions about Juggernaut, particularly vis-a-vis other cards, such as Smokestack.   You may be surprised to discover that I don't necessarily disagree with you.  What i disagree with is the certainty and breadth with which you may express those views.  I consider them to be far more contingent.  

In the past, I've tried to show different MUD lists.  I don't think that one is inherently superior to others, but that MUD lists change and morph depending on certain cards.  A decision to run Metalworker, Smokestack or Null Rod will produce dramatic differences in what your deck looks like.   In fact, in my MUD articles, recently, I suggested that these were the three major decisions that MUD players have to make.   That's why, in the appendix, I produced three lists depending on how you settle on each of these questions.  If you decide to run Null Rod, then Juggernaut is a much stronger card, imo.   The power of Null Rod in a particular metagame, thus, shapes the strength of Juggernaut.   Yet, if we just look at Juggernaut in isolation, it's easy to overlook this fact.   You don't like Null Rod in Workshop decks, so it's pretty obvious that you wouldn't like Juggernaut.  

EDIT:

As for Meandeck MUD, let's give it at least a little more credit than you are .  (The second link doesn't show it, but Meandeck MUD got 2nd there).  

[beder]

On this one, I have to say that I agree with Steve. Have a look at the top8 of those 3 big tournaments, you will see plenty of fully powered decks and blue/drain/control.  IMO, differences of metagames between Europe and US are not a sufficent reason to refute those proofs. MUD could certainly win big tournaments in the US.

According to me, the main explanation to the fact that MUD wins - some would say "dominates" - in Europe but not really in the US, is related to "the best players' choices". I have the feeling that american best players have a natural tendancy, when choosing between 2 Tier1 decks with approximately the same % of chance to win, to choose the blue path.

My 2 cents

[Will]

On this one, I have to say that I agree with Steve. Have a look at the top8 of those 3 big tournaments, you will see plenty of fully powered decks and blue/drain/control.  IMO, differences of metagames between Europe and US are not a sufficent reason to refute those proofs. MUD could certainly win big tournaments in the US.

According to me, the main explanation to the fact that MUD wins - some would say "dominates" - in Europe but not really in the US, is related to "the best players' choices". I have the feeling that american best players have a natural tendancy, when choosing between 2 Tier1 decks with approximately the same % of chance to win, to choose the blue path.

My 2 cents

Pretty sure you missed the main point of the disagreement between Steve and Nick; Smemmen is advocating Aggro MUD with Juggernauts and Null Rods while Prospero thinks that playing those cards and Aggro MUD in general is not correct.  The difference between the US and Europe in my opinion is based on slight although significant changes which can to a degree explain why Aggro MUD has not seen the success that it has in Europe on the East Coast where the majority of the large scale tournaments in the US take place but Espresso Stax has had a lot of success. 

[Smmenen]

On this one, I have to say that I agree with Steve. Have a look at the top8 of those 3 big tournaments, you will see plenty of fully powered decks and blue/drain/control.  IMO, differences of metagames between Europe and US are not a sufficent reason to refute those proofs. MUD could certainly win big tournaments in the US.

According to me, the main explanation to the fact that MUD wins - some would say "dominates" - in Europe but not really in the US, is related to "the best players' choices". I have the feeling that american best players have a natural tendancy, when choosing between 2 Tier1 decks with approximately the same % of chance to win, to choose the blue path.

My 2 cents

Pretty sure you missed the main point of the disagreement between Steve and Nick; Smemmen is advocating Aggro MUD with Juggernauts and Null Rods

I am?  Re-read my last post, and I think you'll see my position is far more nuanced than you are suggesting.    In fact, I would not play those cards in the post-Gencon metagame.  I was advocating them 1-2 months ago, but not with the changes in the field since. 

[voltron00x]

Stephen is suggesting that it is sometimes correct to play Juggernauts and Null Rod, even if often incorrect; still, if there is even one tournament where that combo is correct, then it would be wrong to say one should “never” play Juggernauts and Null Rod. 

However, I think Nick is more suggesting that it is not correct to play Juggernauts not because they are a poor choice in Aggro MUD, but rather because Aggro MUD with Juggernauts is a suboptimal choice as a general rule, in the hierarchy of Workshop decks.

Slightly different disagreement.  Interesting conversation.