I ran my list from above at Xtreme on 3-20 and went 2-2. Losses were to tinker-->BSC.
Thinking things over I have decided to cut at least 2 Annuls for Steel Sabotage. Twice I was holding an Annul as BSC smashed face. Very aggravating! We still have spell snare to help with Oath.
I've stopped counting the times a post-tinker sabotage has won me the game. For the time being running Sabotage in the Annul slot has paid off in a big way and has significantly changed the way the deck reacts to an early Tinker, i.e. not longer losing to it. I'm currently tinkering around with adding a pair of Waterfront Bouncers again and so far this has been working out (the guy loves his workout thats for sure *zing*) quite smoothly. Combined with Sabotages this forces Blue players towards strategies our deck's more than capable of dealing with (mainly artifact-fueled Will turns / time vault shenanigans) while providing solid assistance vs. Oath. (As it stands many of the most recent Oath builds are somewhat cold to an active Bouncer plus Rod.) Certainly not a card to
replace our current instant-speed answers to said threats but a good way of preventing unpleasant comebacks when incorporated into your creature configuration. (Similar to the Apprentice/MMage on Tinker plus Rod vs. Colossus and Will lock in the golden age of UW men.) Additionally: (a) Bouncer is an excellent piece of board control and way to get your ninjas connecting. (b) A ninja-fueled Bouncer plus Clique / Stutter can lead to forbid-lock kind of situations in the later stages of a game without the need of running additional (and clunky) hard counters. Being able to squeeze that last bit of utility out of what's already in the deck and turn your early game sprites into a recurring answer to Tinker and Will? Now that's what a fish(er)man's dreams are made of.
Also, I have noticed that cursecatcher is best used as an early drop to get ninja turn 2 (or turn 3 if we play standstill). His ability does not cut it as it is too easy to play around.
I tried to make this guy work. I really did. But I could never quite get there. I don't mind 1 or 2 for the very same reasons you mentioned and he's a fine way to get a second turn Rod to stick (sometimes) but that's about it. Not only is he easily played around as you pointed out but he simply doesn't do anything against a wide variety of cards our deck's immensely worried about: Leading with a Catcher and watching your opponent drop an Oath/Bob/Timevault/Sphere etc. is a dangerous spot to be in considering that the deck doesn't run the amount of free counterspells it used to and thus can't always rely on getting value out of Catcher in a first turn counterwar.
To a certain extent this applies to any one drop we got and I love diversifying our angles as much as the next guy but in the light of early Confidants and MUD in particular maxing Shamans/Mancers might be downright better. But then again: We're really getting into details here and generating the numbers of games necessary to talk about the impact of changing single cards is close to impossible. En fin de compte: As long as they enable Ninja you could probably run just about any combination of the cards we've been discussing. If the cards and matchups fall your way you'll like like a genius, if not: there's only so much you can do with a strategy like ours in the first place.
I have been trying to get bolts in the deck, but can't think of what to cut. I do not agree with cutting lavamancer. He has won me so many games or provided strong assistance. He can kill beaters so ninjas have an open path to drawing me cards. I could maybe see cutting one Annul for a bolt. However, I think a REB would be just as good, or better. It kills jace and trygon and can counter FoW and tinker (deck's biggest threat).
I should have been more clear on this. I do not endorse cutting Mancer entirely. I've been running it as a two off for some time now but might as well move up two 3 again. See above: Hard to get a feeling for how switching single cards plays out in the long run.
As for the REB vs. Bolt debate: Having an immediate answer on the draw for an early Painter/Bob/Worker is something I value rather highly. (While leading with Mancer might cut it vs. an early Bob it certainly won't against Worker.) In my experience Bolt's also the single most effective card in the Fish mirror. With additional copies out of the side (as much as I dig Jitte (and I
do love 'em), having access to 3-4 Bolts / 3 Mancers / x Stutters for 2 feels superior) my win ratio against Noble improved by a whole lot. Besides the fact that Jitte's a risky play vs. Rod (They will keep them in. Don't ask me why.), Pridemages, Trygons and in a matchup where mana's a scarce resource in general, Bolt is one of the few cheap answers (albeit one that's takes some additional work) for Goyf.
Sure: Additional Snares e.g. theoretically handle the same issues just fine. But (and this is a big one) the deck's already packed with cc1 counterspells and theres only so many spells you can cast on a mana base as tight as ours during the first few turns or simply being on the draw (!). Running Bolts (and Bouncers/Sabotages etc.) grants the deck a fighting chance when losing the roll, limits the amount of close to impossible judgement calls the fish player has to make (esp. one drops vs. cc1 counters) and allow us to tap out more aggressively for board presence without straight out losing to a wide range of resolved threats (and quite a wide range it is.
).
It's really all about diversifying our answers and being able to use our few colored sources to the max. I do believe there is a cap on how many (non-free) counterspells this deck wants and we're probably pretty close to it. (Running ESG or Petal might be an additional option to address this. I haven't tested this extensively enough to really have a take on this and I'd love to hear how this has been doing for other players.)
I do agree however that space is in fact the main issue here. There's no definite answer to this I suppose. (I've cut down on Snares before (but man, I do love that card) to make room for 1-2 Bolts. Which worked out fine when making room for 2 bouncers and Clouds (getting Stutter into the cc2 range more easily) but may be piscicidal in different builds.) At the end of the day you got to stick to what feels appropriate in a expected metagame while maintaining the amount of immanent synergy the deck needs to be relevant at all.
On a more general note however: Has anybody tinkered around with the mana base at all? I'm strongly leaning towards cutting a colorless mana source for an another Island / Fetchland. Muta's getting the axe at the moment: (a) Going down to 3 doesn't really weaken Stutter (esp. when running some number of Clouds) since it's still gonna show up often enough and activating two vault for Sprite has yet to occur. (b) I don't remember the last time I wanted to swing with 2 Vaults. The deck doesn't really want to pass the turn without colored mana up and activating two Vaults will tap us down more often than not. (c) The current versions LOVE blue mana. I can't stress this enough. (See above.) One of the main benefits these builds offer over more traditional versions (heavier on Dazes/MisDs) is the ability to out counter opposing decks without suffering heavy card and or tempo advantage. Getting value out of otherwise dead draws in the late game is a fine deal but being too careless when it comes down to colored sources will cost you games or at least annihilate a good deal of what otherwise solid deck building would allow us to do.
Addendum:
Regarding Bouncer: If you're looking for an equally solid answer to Tinker pre board and are excited by the prospect of turning the Shop matchup into a walk (it's getting pretty close) you may want to try out a couple of Welders in the cc1 spot instead. (Add the ability to recur your Rods and mess with their Vaults, painters and whatnot for some extra sweetness. I've also found that a good number of U players will go out of their way to keep this guy off the table - burning Forces on / readily trade their confidants for it, which most of the time we couldn't be happier about.)
I'm well aware that there's only so much one can fit into an 18-piece squad and running Welders is gonna take adjustments to the number of Shamans/Mancers/Bolts you're running (regarding the number of non-blue cards the deck can support) but the Goblin remains an excellent piece of utility that deserves further consideration nonetheless.
And even if you can't find room for it main: This guy's good against MUD.. like.. wow. If brown decks are a substantial part of what you're expecting you should seriously consider this as another option to complement Chewers in the board. Barring the absolute nuts a combination of Rods, Wastes, Shamans, Welders, Chewers, Sabotages, Forces is something most shop hands will have a hard time dealing with. (If they fail to apply early pressure in favor of dropping Kegs/Needles: the better.) Welder also offers the benefit of serving double duty: Being a cc1 creature it's a good early and mid game tool to hinder brown's development and build up board presence (playing the Chewer-role so to speak) while single handily locking the shop player out of the game in the later stages (Hey, it's like Flux / RnR except it doesn't blow).
The mud matchup's already fine as it is (especially when running Clique) but if you're feeling greedy go for 2-3 Welders. You won't be disappointed.
Greetings
