StarCity's new buy list

[Troy_Costisick]

Sheesh!  Their buy list has been updated already.

SoFI: +$10
SoLS: +$5
Wasteland: +$3

I guess they just can't get these cards in stock.

[DubDub]

Sheesh!  Their buy list has been updated already.

SoFI: +$10
SoLS: +$5
Wasteland: +$3

I guess they just can't get these cards in stock.

And Force of Will is +$10, since it's now at a $50 buy price to match ChannelFireball's offer.

I don't quite understand the Sword's increases; are they driven by EDH, by applications of Stoneforge Mystic to Legacy (even then, they'd be singleton's right?  not playsets)?  Is there a rumor that in addition to a  sword the two from original Mirrodin will be reprinted in Standard?

[mikekilljoy]

Sheesh!  Their buy list has been updated already.

SoFI: +$10
SoLS: +$5
Wasteland: +$3

I guess they just can't get these cards in stock.

And Force of Will is +$10, since it's now at a $50 buy price to match ChannelFireball's offer.

I don't quite understand the Sword's increases; are they driven by EDH, by applications of Stoneforge Mystic to Legacy (even then, they'd be singleton's right?  not playsets)?  Is there a rumor that in addition to a  sword the two from original Mirrodin will be reprinted in Standard?

Yes to EDH and to Mystic being used in Legacy. Also, because Fire and Ice deals with Merfolk and Goblins and maybe Zoo, which are seemingly getting more popular again.

[Troy_Costisick]

Sheesh!  Their buy list has been updated already.

SoFI: +$10
SoLS: +$5
Wasteland: +$3

I guess they just can't get these cards in stock.

And Force of Will is +$10, since it's now at a $50 buy price to match ChannelFireball's offer.

I don't quite understand the Sword's increases; are they driven by EDH, by applications of Stoneforge Mystic to Legacy (even then, they'd be singleton's right?  not playsets)?  Is there a rumor that in addition to a  sword the two from original Mirrodin will be reprinted in Standard?

Wow, I completely missed the increase in FoW.  Not surprised, tho.  SCG can't get outbid by other vendors.  It's interesting to me that Commander is starting to affect prices.  The official recognition from the mothership and special decks coming out this summer must really be encouraging people to join the format.  I'll have to admitt, I'm getting tempted myself.

[Dr. Sylvan]

I'll have to admitt, I'm getting tempted myself.

EDH is by far the best Constructed format. The fact that the entire premise of the format is "you could play that way, but please don't, because the point of a game is to be fun" is awesome. The masses of Magic players find keeping up with tournament formats intimidating, but enjoy Eternal because of the nostalgia/history/infinite-options feeling. EDH gives the pluses of Eternal without the minuses of tournament-tuned, unfun "best decks", since playing the best decks (e.g., Arcum, Zur, Erayo) is explicitly frowned on, if not banned (Rofellos). Plus, the concept of a general is magnetic to everyone's Vorthos side.

EDH will continue to sustain value for relevant cards. SCG can barely keep Darksteel Ingot in stock, and that's a 2004 common! Legendary creatures, especially foils, will benefit from this consistently, as will good "Voltron" enablers, because of decks like Isamaru, Rafiq, and Uril that use lots of equipment and/or Auras. So Stoneforge Mystic is going to stay expensive, probably even after it leaves Extended.

[Troy_Costisick]

This is getting almost comical!  Since the first post in this thread (3-15-11), here have been the changes to SCG's buy list:

SoFI: +$10
SoLS: +$5
Wasteland: +$3
Force of Will: +$10
Gaea's Cradle: +$5
All Ten Duals: +$10
Workshop: +$25(!)
Time Spiral: +$5

Cradle is now higher than Academy!  I'm beginning to wonder if SCG raising their buy prices is beginning to provide a dis-incentive to sell since people with extra copies on their hands are holding them in hopes that prices will rise further.  What do you guys think?

Peace,

-Troy

[Royal Ass.]

I find it interesting that they are trying to pick up Type 1 staples in addition to Legacy and EDH.  When I went to the Kansas City Open Series they didn't even have their Type 1 cards with them, so I assumed that those cards just don't move like they used to. The only power cards they had were a box of heavily played stuff.  I indirectly through a friend's mass trade in picked up a pretty decent Beta Emerald for $400 that has no major flaws and looks great in a sleeve. 

Does anyone who has been to a recent Open Series know if they are now starting to bring their normal Type 1 stock to sell at the Open Series?  Is demand for Power cards starting to pick up?  I have noticed that they haven't had a lot of it in stock on their website recently.

As others have stated I hope this means they are planning to organize some Type 1 stuff, even if it is on a relatively small scale.  I bitched to anyone who would listen to me about this when I was at the Open Series here....

[Troy_Costisick]

Just a quick update on this:

SCG's Buy/Sell rate for Force of Will is up to $60/$90.  That's a increase of +$20/+$30 since they started advertising their eternal buying spree less than a month ago.  That's quite an escalation in such a short amount of time.  Certanily makes me giddy, but not so sure about anyone looking to get into Legacy/Vintage tho.

Peace,

-Troy

[yawg07]

You guys haven't been watching Troll & Toad's list.
They were buying FoW and Wasteland at $60 like 5 days ago.

[Godder]

Force of Will is now almost as expensive as Mana Drain, especially if you're happy with Italian Legends...

[DubDub]

Just wanted to point out that the second place list from here, tier-1 Stax, can be had for $320 with 15 proxies, or ~$600 with 10 proxies (adding 4x Wasteland and Mana Crypt).  The first place deck from there can be had for under $1,000 with 15 proxies.  And ~$250 cheaper if you're willing to substitute Spell Pierce for Mana Drain.

In contrast, Hatfield's Atlanta SCG Open winning High Tide list will run you ~$1,600, with more than half of that coming from Candelabras.  That's a mono color deck not dependent on duals.  The 5th place (I think) list from Atlanta, a Bant list with more consistent price card-to-card, weighs in at ~$1,700 provided you can find someone to sell you the duals.

Proxy Vintage is now not just a budget alternative to non-Proxy Vintage, but to Legacy as well.

Now, obviously proxies mitigate cost to an enormous degree, and obviously demand is high for the Legacy cards because that format is better supported and more popular.  I shudder to think what the price of Power would be if there were $5K opens for Vintage every weekend, and two Vintage GPs this year.

And still, there's next to no incentive for Wizards to reprint even non-reserved cards, since Legacy competes with the rotating formats that drive continued sales.

P.S. I think Jace TMS had dropped to $85 at SCG, but I could be wrong, because he's at (back up to?) $90 now.

[i_set_fire]

Just a quick update on this:

SCG's Buy/Sell rate for Force of Will is up to $60/$90. 

This is insane!  SCG doubled the price of numerous cards in less than a month.  That is too much price control for one company to have.
I was hoping to get Korean wastes for my deck, but with this jump I can only get English ones for the price Korean ones were last month. 
As for the forces, if I am paying 90$ for an uncommon it better be: pack fresh, BB, let me find any card in my deck, tap for two colorless, or counter a spell and let me use the CMC mana next turn.

I sure am glad I play vintage so I can play with proxies

[Dr. Sylvan]

I recommend that readers interested in this thread also check out http://www.mananation.com/bubble-bubble-bleiweiss-and-trouble/, especially the comments thread, which includes posts from Ben Bleiweiss. I'm wading through it now, and finding it educational.

Also, Aaron Forsythe's Twitter posts (@mtgaaron) were positively bursting with Eternal information roughly a week ago, including possibly the strongest confirmation yet that the reserved list is permanent.

[DubDub]

I recommend that readers interested in this thread also check out http://www.mananation.com/bubble-bubble-bleiweiss-and-trouble/, especially the comments thread, which includes posts from Ben Bleiweiss. I'm wading through it now, and finding it educational.

Also, Aaron Forsythe's Twitter posts (@mtgaaron) were positively bursting with Eternal information roughly a week ago, including possibly the strongest confirmation yet that the reserved list is permanent.

Seconded, that was quite an interesting read.  (The comments too.)

I am inclined to believe that a bubble of speculation is at work with card prices right now.  In particular the case that demonstrates this to me is that of Sword of Fire and Ice.  A card that has historically been available non-foil for $8-$15 has simply exploded in price.  SCG is currently sold out at $50 for non-foil, $60 for foil and $70 for the new (old-frame) Judge foil.  This card does not see significant or impactful play in Legacy like a similarly niche card, Candelabra, does.  It also can't hold a candle to the amount of play Legacy staples (Force/Waste/Duals) see.  So what's the story?  That the EDH crowd is moving the price on this card at the same time that Legacy players are moving the price on Force/Waste/Duals?  It just seems to me that like the bubble alleged to exist for Legacy cards in the linked article a speculative bubble is forming on all 'old' cards.

I admit I have no idea how many SOFI's exist in the whole print run.

So, I have four EDH decks in various states of disrepair.  Two of which I intend to keep and maintain, and two of which are less important to me.  Among them (and available to be pulled out for use in Eternal play) I have three non-foil SOFI's.  I'll definitely have to evaluate selling/trading one or two copies, and doing the same for similarly inflated (non-reserved) cards.

As I posted in the Pimp thread a while ago I recently moved a Candelabra I had to finish sets of LED, Natural Order and pick up some other sweet cards.  There was no way I was going to go the other way, and spend upwards of $600 to finish that deck (at the expense of finishing a Bant list for Legacy).

I'll probably be moving the two Time Spirals I have outside of EDH copies, since doing so for either one will recoup my 'investment' in them (speaking about all four).

I'm the last person you should look to for advice, but I would counsel players considering selling surplus cards to do so, and just to keep the cards you intend to play with now or in the foreseeable future.  Keep the cards you will still want regardless of price, because those are the one's you'll be happy to have if/when the price bubble bursts.  Similarly, while I don't want to encourage speculation for speculation's sake, I would advise people to pick up inexpensive cards that are banned in Legacy, if a) you think there's a chance it will get unbanned, and b) you'd want to play with it, provided it gets unbanned.

[Bunbury]

This bubble is leaving me with some concerns. I have some legacy staples like Aether Vials, Tops, SoFI, Wastelands, Goblin Piledrivers/Lackeys and whatnot.

I would like cash and really only play legacy a few times a year. So I'm torn between riding it out and if it hits even higher just selling and getting out of it and cashing out now.

[Delha]

This bubble is leaving me with some concerns. I have some legacy staples like Aether Vials, Tops, SoFI, Wastelands, Goblin Piledrivers/Lackeys and whatnot.

I would like cash and really only play legacy a few times a year. So I'm torn between riding it out and if it hits even higher just selling and getting out of it and cashing out now.

If you don't need the cash now, might as well wait. Even if those doomsaying turn out to be correct and Legacy dies a miserable death, you can be confident it won't be overnight, and you'll have time to cash out.

[Shax]

Has Vintage completely died? No. Then Legacy will not fall. I have 8, thats right 8! Dual lands now. All blue duals at that. 4 weeks ago, I had 0 duals. I found a friend with them and all. I picked up a beaten up Force of Will at SCG Atlanta too for 35$. I just have to set encyclopedias on it and viola. Mana Drain bank shot.

[honestabe]

I was really banking on the Commander cards somehow helping the dual land situation.  Looks like that's not going to happen...

Perhaps I should be more clear:  Aaron Forsythe via twitter pretty much said that he didn't know why everyone thought the new EDH decks would help out the rising price of legacy/vintage staples.  He claimed that that's not what they're for, and not to expect any help from WoTC anytime soon. 

This to me seems counterproductive, seeing as duals, Forces, wastes and sol rings are EDH staples...

[Ozymandias]

Something is totally fucked when I can sell four wastes for 170 and buy a Bazaar of Baghdad for 185, judging by current ebay pricings.

[beder]

Something is totally fucked when I can sell four wastes for 170 and buy a Bazaar of Baghdad for 185, judging by current ebay pricings.

Yep, especially knowing that 4 wastes can destroy 4 bazaar... Bazaar is really overpriced

[Ozymandias]

Actually, I can sell 3 wastes for 170...things are even more fucked than I originally assessed.

[Royal Ass.]

I find this whole thing rather amusing since I have play sets of just about every decent Vintage/Legacy card.  But if I were trying to get into the format I would be really annoyed.  Force of Will is $90.  I actually remember specifically paying $9 for one many years ago that's a part of my play set.

[honestabe]

Prepare for an influx of fakes, once summer starts up, highschool and college players have more free time, and magic really get popular.

[TracerBullet]

Something is totally fucked when I can sell four wastes for 170 and buy a Bazaar of Baghdad for 185, judging by current ebay pricings.

Curiously enough, you could do this in 2001, when wastes were $5 and Bazaars were 25-30$.

[Purple Hat]

people who are complaining about SCG trying to drive up prices need to realize that raising his buy list prices is a major decision for Ben not to be undertaken lightly.

SCG's working capital requirements for it's legacy card business are closely tied to the dollar value of the cards in its inventory. In general increases in working capital requirements are not good for businesses because it means they need to devote more and more of their available resources to simply running their business rather than investing in future growth or new businesses (like adding legacy opens or creating a vintage open series).

If Ben is dropping 2500 on Forces and selling them for 4000 he makes a nice profit on the transaction, but he also needs to keep floating that 2500 so that he can buy the next pile of forces to sell rather than investing in his business or hiring another employee. If the next week comes around and Ben can't put his hands on 2500 he risks not only shrinking his profits but also a steady decline in his business. Say he only has 2000 the next week because he decides to add another employee to manage the stock for 500/week. Now Ben can only buy 40 forces and only has 3200 in revenue. The following week he might only have 1700 available to buy, and so on. Increases in prices are not universally good for SCG and carry with them significant trade offs that people need to be aware of.

The decision to increase his buy prices works pretty much the same way on Ben's business as purchasing fewer cards would. Week 1 Ben spends 2500 on cards he sells for 4000. Week 2 buy prices go up to 60/card so Ben spends 3000 and sells the cards for 4500 to maintain his 1500 profit. Now he has to float 3000 in cash to keep his business running instead of 2500. That's money that CAN'T be used for anything else without risking the business.

Run this out across a couple dozen cards and you can quickly see that a general $10 increase in both the buy and sell prices for legacy staples could easily represent a 50,000-100,000 increase in the amount of cash Ben needs to put his hands on every week just to maintain his business without increasing his net profits at all.

I have no idea how SCG's access to credit is, but finding an extra 50,000-100,000 in cash for the legacy trade is probably not a trivial exercise, especially if there's no profits in it for them.

[Diakonov]

The decision to increase his buy prices works pretty much the same way on Ben's business as purchasing fewer cards would. Week 1 Ben spends 2500 on cards he sells for 4000. Week 2 buy prices go up to 60/card so Ben spends 3000 and sells the cards for 4500 to maintain his 1500 profit. Now he has to float 3000 in cash to keep his business running instead of 2500. That's money that CAN'T be used for anything else without risking the business.

Buying for 2500 and selling for 4000 is a 60% profit on your initial investment, whereas 3000 and 4500 is a only a 50% profit.  I'm suspicious of these numbers, because I would imagine that they would have to adjust their sell prices differently to maintain the same profit margin.  For example, if a card is worth $8 and a dealer sells it for $10, that does not mean that they intend to sell a $40 card for $42; it would be $50.  This is how I understood dealers to operate.

[Purple Hat]

The decision to increase his buy prices works pretty much the same way on Ben's business as purchasing fewer cards would. Week 1 Ben spends 2500 on cards he sells for 4000. Week 2 buy prices go up to 60/card so Ben spends 3000 and sells the cards for 4500 to maintain his 1500 profit. Now he has to float 3000 in cash to keep his business running instead of 2500. That's money that CAN'T be used for anything else without risking the business.

Buying for 2500 and selling for 4000 is a 60% profit on your initial investment, whereas 3000 and 4500 is a only a 50% profit.  I'm suspicious of these numbers, because I would imagine that they would have to adjust their sell prices differently to maintain the same profit margin.  For example, if a card is worth $8 and a dealer sells it for $10, that does not mean that they intend to sell a $40 card for $42; it would be $50.  This is how I understood dealers to operate.

I'm basing those numbers on what Ben said he had done with pricing in the comments, they could be wrong but my point was more about the capital being tied up in the legacy business.  Even if SCG is making the same margin on the cards they still need to come up with a TON more money to operate their singles business as a result of these changes and that money can't be used for anything else.

In the comments to the article Ben said was buying at 50 and selling at 80, now he's buying at 60 and selling at 90. he mentioned that he'd rather 60/90 than 70/100.  It's not uncommon for businesses to pass on the dollar amount of a cost increase rather than the % amount which chews up profit margins while maintaining the same dollar value of profits.  People don't like it when they find out your supply price went up by 1 but you charge them 1.20 extra.

[Delha]

In my experience, the pricier your industry, the lower your margin tends to be.

• When I was working at a comic shop, our margin was typically 40-60%.
• I'm currently an analyst, and a good chunk of my job is working out pricing on new prospects. I can tell you for a fact that when you're talking about a bigger bid, you typically have to drop your margin just to stay competitive.
• When buying my car about a year ago, and doing the homework, I learned from a friend in the business that the margin on a new car sale is in the low single digits.
• This was further reinforced by casually watching Pawn Stars. Their margin varies wildly, but one thing that stays consistent is that their big ticket items see less markup. I often see them buying small stuff at half the expected sale value. In contrast, when he picked up a gold bar (sunken treasure), he paid out closer to 80%.

People don't like it when they find out your supply price went up by 1 but you charge them 1.20 extra.

This. I hate the Kindle and Nook for the reason quoted above. I can understand being charged separately for the reader. What I take issue with is being charged the exact same amount as for a hard copy. The manufacturing and materials cost for the book disappeared. The distribution cost dropped like a rock (no shipping, no physical stocking overhead). The secondary market gets cut out, I can never resell it, and can't loan it out*. All of these huge benefits, and you're still not willing to cut the customer a price break? The greed evident in the business model infuriates me. I entirely understand that companies need to make a profit, but this is straight up gouging.

*No, the 2 week, one time ever loan on the Nook doesn't count in my eyes.

[Grand Inquisitor]

Run this out across a couple dozen cards and you can quickly see that a general $10 increase in both the buy and sell prices for legacy staples could easily represent a 50,000-100,000 increase in the amount of cash Ben needs to put his hands on every week just to maintain his business without increasing his net profits at all.

This is a little simplistic, foremost because of the reason why we're all interested in this topic: much of the eroding profit margin loss due to price increases is mitigated by asset appreciation when your inventory value goes up faster than your carrying cost does.

Don't cry for SCG.

[Meddling Mike]

• When buying my car about a year ago, and doing the homework, I learned from a friend in the business that the margin on a new car sale is in the low single digits.

I spent about a year and a half working in auto sales and this is largely true. The difference between the sticker price on a Toyota and invoice price is about 7%. However, the more expensive the car the larger the percentage. A 2-door Yaris with manual transmission has almost no profit built into it whereas a Land Cruiser is closer to 15%. You also have to take into account dealer holdback and any dealer cash incentives being offered by the manufacturer to help move older inventory. Surprisingly, many dealerships don't make their money off the sale price of the car, the larger profit margins are had in the finance office, service department and parts. Without those aspects of the business very few dealerships would be profitable.