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How do you think Mental Misstep changes the situation with regard to Kiln Fiend based gush decks?
Any time there is a free spell, that is a serious consideration for Grow, period. Mental Misstep is such a consideration, for specific kinds of metagames. It's probably an excellent choice for Gush heavy metagames, and much less so for Workshop heavy metagames. It stops Spell Pierce, opposing Duresses, and REBs. Beware fields that have shifted to Drains, though.
Probe almost seems like a more natural fit, and should be tested out in Grow lists. Probe can be used to make extremely aggressive kills, and to plan around your opponent's answers. I'm very excited to test it in Grow.
For example, to maximize Kiln Fiend’s speed, I relied more heavily on Duress effects than most Gush decks. Consequently, I had fewer blue counterspells, such as Spell Pierce or Mana Drain, which might otherwise help in situations in which you are pushed into a defense or control posture. Similarly, it induces the inclusion of narrower cards like Lightning Bolt or Berserk, to ensure that Kiln Fiend can deal damage.
In your updated list at the bottom you reduced the duress effects to 6 and added 2 drains. Can you explain why you think 2 drains might work better vs spell pierce? To me Spell Piece allows you to preserve some of that flexibility of being aggressive. Consider a line of play on T3 with a Kiln Fiend out, you tap land to preordain. Float a blue, gush holding up Spell Pierce. Youre left with the option of countering their potential counter to your Gush, allowing the Kiln to swing for 10 or just replaying the land, swinging for 7 and have spell pierce available for their turn. Maybe its less explosive but it leaves you in a better defensive position.
That's true, but Spell Pierce is increasingly easy to play around. My sense was that the deck needed a few more hard counters in the mid to late game, where Spell Pierce no longer works, or no longer works well. The deck just wants real counters at some point, and Spell Pierce is just an inferior Duress in most situations with Kiln Fiend in play.