Number Crunching - Delver of Secrets

[serracollector]

I wanted to just ask the TMD community, how many sorceries, and instants, should a deck run IF that deck runs 3-4 Copies of Delver of Secrets, to ensure its flipping "in time" for it to be tempo advatange?

If we take a base of some decks:
Acall
3 x Tutors
Y win
Walk
4 x Force
4 x Gush
2 x Ponder, BS
4 x other Counters
1 x Scroll
3-4 X preordain

Thats 24, ruffly more than 30% chance of flipping.   If your more control, replace gush with more counters, or aggro replace with bolts and wat not, obv variations, but is 20-25 enuff?  Is a flip by turn 3 (or less) relevant? 

I am asking because I am testing a deck with Delvers, and 22 instant/sorceries, and I have had people say that is no where enough, but in testing it has been.  Maybe I am lucky?  But what do you guys say?

[TheWhiteDragon]

I'm not entirely getting this guy.  In a deck with just delvers, you run 4 slots for a 7 turn kill....when in a counter-blue deck you could just run 4 slots in vault/key/tinker/BSC and have a 1 turn kill.  If you are combining him with trygons and such, then you have green so just run tarmgoyfs for a faster clock.  Why is this guy popular?  the fact he can whiff and be a 1/1 for a turn or two slows his clock even more.  I think it's awful.

[serracollector]

It gets under standstill, has evasion, kills jace, kills lodestone, kills trygon, helps in killing goyf, and its  a clock.  Those are some of the reasons it is played on top of just a 7 turn clock.  Don't dimsmiss is so easily.

[Meddling Mike]

I guess you have to keep in mind that there is quite a bit of top deck manipulation that can help you flip you DoS, so it's not as simple a calculation as (# of instants and sorceries in library)/(# of cards in library). There are also some fringe benefits to DoS' look ability that has value. If you are looking at the top card blind and you don't like what you see you can pop a fetch land before you draw/top deck tutor/etc. So that has some value as well. You can also consider how this works with multiple DoS' on the table at the same time. If you don't feel like his beats are relevant he makes a fabulous card to pitch to Force of Will. At any rate, I think that the best way to think of Delver is almost like a one mana Psychatog. He's probably only getting in for 1 for a bit after you play him, but you counter everything your opponent does until he becomes a real threat.

[serracollector]

That is a very good analogy MM.  And like you said, EOT mystical or vamp for w/e, EOT brainstorm, or with jace on the board, these guys become 3/2 flyers very quickly.  Also since its a may effect, if flipping him dont change the game state, you can always keep him a 1/1 despite the fact you just drew a counter to keep your opponent off guard! 

[Ten-Ten]

That is a very good analogy MM.  And like you said, EOT mystical or vamp for w/e, EOT brainstorm, or with jace on the board, these guys become 3/2 flyers very quickly.  Also since its a may effect, if flipping him dont change the game state, you can always keep him a 1/1 despite the fact you just drew a counter to keep your opponent off guard! 

In this case I would have to say DoS's ability to peek at the top card holds more value than turning into a 3/2 flyer.
I mean with Jace,TmS out, you could just have Aven Mindcensor and win from there.
Every card you have is better once Jace The mindsculptor is out...just saying.