http://morphling.de/search.php?id=0&type=3&app=10&search=thorn+of+amethyst&sorting=DESC&sent=1I\'m seeing a lot more 4x Thorn than I am 2x Thorn. As far as the hardcasting thing goes, if you\'re both in topdecking mode on turn 12 or whatever, drawing Ingot Chewer vs drawing Smelt is drawing a win condition vs drawing a removal spell. Playing Landstill, I have had very little trouble hardcasting Ingot Chewer in the late-game. Yes, you may be \"already winning,\" but there\'s a HUGE difference between drawing a Shatter and drawing a Shatter with a body attached.
You cannot say Ingot Chewer is the superior choice by stating its viability in the context of a list that runs fewer threats, more basic lands (compared to most blue shells), and Crucible of Worlds. Considering a Drain Tendrils shell, Smelt is the superior choice when taking into account supporting cards like Snapcaster Mage – it’s all relative.
The Morphling.de link you posted while interesting is relatively misleading as the majority of the top 8’s listed are from Europe, both you and I are not from Europe.
Going back to the beginning of the year where Espresso seemed to take precedence over straight Aggro MUD (I could be wrong I feel like I saw more at that time):
Selden 14.01.2012
The 4. deck contains
3 copies of \"Thorn of Amethyst\" in its maindeck...
Selden 14.01.2012
The 5. deck contains
2 copies of \"Thorn of Amethyst\" in its maindeck...
Selden 14.01.2012
The 6. deck contains
2 copies of \"Thorn of Amethyst\" in its maindeck...
Westmont 07.01.2012
The 1. deck contains
2 copies of \"Thorn of Amethyst\" in its maindeck...
Bloomsburg 21.01.2012
The 5. deck contains 4 copies of \"Thorn of Amethyst\" in its maindeck...
Clarks Summit 28.01.2012
The 1. deck contains 4 copies of \"Thorn of Amethyst\" in its maindeck...
Clarks Summit 28.01.2012
The 8. deck contains
2 copies of \"Thorn of Amethyst\" in its maindeck...
Valley Stream 04.02.2012
The 1. deck contains
2 copies of \"Thorn of Amethyst\" in its maindeck...
Valley Stream 04.02.2012
The 4. deck contains
2 copies of \"Thorn of Amethyst\" in its maindeck...
Valley Stream 04.02.2012
The 5. deck contains
2 copies of \"Thorn of Amethyst\" in its maindeck...
Grudge Match IV 11.02.2012
The 3. deck contains 4 copies of \"Thorn of Amethyst\" in its maindeck...
Grudge Match IV 11.02.2012
The 5. deck contains 4 copies of \"Thorn of Amethyst\" in its maindeck...
Selden 18.02.2012
The 2. deck contains 4 copies of \"Thorn of Amethyst\" in its maindeck...
Selden 18.02.2012
The 3. deck contains 4 copies of \"Thorn of Amethyst\" in its maindeck...
Selden 18.02.2012
The 6. deck contains
2 copies of \"Thorn of Amethyst\" in its maindeck...
Los Angeles 26.02.2012
The 2. deck contains 4 copies of \"Thorn of Amethyst\" in its maindeck...
NEV 10.03.2012
The 1. deck contains
2 copies of \"Thorn of Amethyst\" in its maindeck...
NEV 10.03.2012
The 2. deck contains
2 copies of \"Thorn of Amethyst\" in its maindeck...
NEV 10.03.2012
The 6. deck contains 4 copies of \"Thorn of Amethyst\" in its maindeck...
NEV 10.03.2012
The 7. deck contains 4 copies of \"Thorn of Amethyst\" in its maindeck...
Selden 24.03.2012
The 1. deck contains 4 copies of \"Thorn of Amethyst\" in its maindeck...
Selden 24.03.2012
The 4. deck contains
2 copies of \"Thorn of Amethyst\" in its maindeck...
Selden 24.03.2012
The 5. deck contains
2 copies of \"Thorn of Amethyst\" in its maindeck...
Selden 24.03.2012
The 6. deck contains 4 copies of \"Thorn of Amethyst\" in its maindeck...
Bloomsburg 31.03.2012
The 2. deck contains
3 copies of \"Thorn of Amethyst\" in its maindeck...
Bloomsburg 31.03.2012
The 3. deck contains
2 copies of \"Thorn of Amethyst\" in its maindeck...
Bloomsburg 31.03.2012
The 5. deck contains
2 copies of \"Thorn of Amethyst\" in its maindeck...
Bloomsburg 31.03.2012
The 8. deck contains
2 copies of \"Thorn of Amethyst\" in its maindeck...
Columbus 18.03.2012
The 3. deck contains 4 copies of \"Thorn of Amethyst\" in its maindeck...
Columbus 18.03.2012
The 4. deck contains 4 copies of \"Thorn of Amethyst\" in its maindeck...
Clarks Summit 21.04.2012
The 1. deck contains 4 copies of \"Thorn of Amethyst\" in its maindeck...
Clarks Summit 21.04.2012
The 3. deck contains 4 copies of \"Thorn of Amethyst\" in its maindeck...
Selden 05.05.2012
The 1. deck contains 4 copies of \"Thorn of Amethyst\" in its maindeck...
Selden 05.05.2012
The 5. deck contains
2 copies of \"Thorn of Amethyst\" in its maindeck...
Bloomsburg 12.05.2012
The 5. deck contains 4 copies of \"Thorn of Amethyst\" in its maindeck...
I apologize if I made an over generalization, when I said current I did not mean the archetype as a whole in the sense of the current generation of Workshop lists. Rather I meant current as in most recently played which if you look at lists played by Nick D. and other Workshop proponents especially in the NY area they are running a lower number of Thorns. You are correct there are still a decent number of people running 4 Thorns but I\'m not positive that will remain true going forward.
If we count the events where decks ran 3 Thorns we split even from what I could find for US events since January. The fact of the matter is in my area and from what I can tell in Workshop heavy areas Thorns have gone down in number primarily due to the switch from Aggro to Control Stax in addition the abnormally high number of Trygon Predators penetrating the meta as a whole. I’d be hard pressed to argue (as a Workshop pilot) that running more Thorns in the current meta is a great idea which in turn lowers the value of Chewer for blue pilots.
Edit: TLDR: Both cards have their strong and weak points. I do believe going forward that Smelt will be a strong addition to the Red splash and perhaps superior to Chewer in certain builds.