The early game with blue decks, play or draw?

[Smmenen]

Restricted List combo's best matchup is blue control.  Always has been.  The best combo pilots have always beaten the best control pilots in this format.  Isolated and insular regional players don't always realize this, whose view of the format is skewed by the over-prevalence (and popularity) of blue control mirrors and whose maindecks are distorted for the control mirror.

I truly hope you stick your guns at Gencon, and choose to be on the draw against unknown opponents.  

[Samoht]

Restricted List combo's best matchup is blue control.  Always has been.  The best combo pilots have always beaten the best control pilots in this format.  Isolated and insular regional players don't always realize this, whose view of the format is skewed by the over-prevalence of blue control mirrors and whose maindecks are distorted for the control mirror.

I truly hope you stick your guns at Gencon, and choose to be on the draw against unknown opponents.  

I highly disagree with stating that Combo's ideal match up is blue control. Fish decks seem infinitely easier to defeat now that they are eschewing Null Rod by and large.

I also disagree with stating that the best combo pilots always beat the best control pilots. I'd say that your skewing your analysis based on the events that you've played in the distant past where Blue was a severe dog to Storm, only really having Stifle as an out(if they played it) or catching a counter on a bottle neck card that could easily just be bait. The format has drastically changed since you were traveling in the circuit and playing all the time at major events. You can lean on that knowledge for advantages at times, but you have to realize that the shift in the cards that are allowed to be played (based on printings/restrictions) has altered how things play out, Cards like Mental Misstep(freely stopping Dark Ritual and Duress/Thoughtseize), Flusterstorm, and Mindbreak Trap heavily influence the power level of dedicated restricted list combo decks and their value in modern Vintage. If you disagree with that, I really can't discuss this further with you as you are either ignoring the value in those printings or blind to the changes they have brought. With the weapons available to Blue Control players today, they can easily modify their decks to be decidedly advantageous in any combo match. Lodestone Golem wasn't the death knell for combo, it was the juxtaposition of Lodestone with MBT and Flusterstorm, followed by MM that really took TPS/Long out of the format as a dominant deck.

My meta is quite representative of what people should be playing right now. We've had several events that break YOUR 33 player threshold for relevancy. Check the rest of the events in the US that are posted, most don't even crack 20. Every event we have puts several Blue control decks in the top 8 and almost no dedicated combo(externally of Dredge). Which one of us has a skewed meta that is insular and isolated again? You might be the top Long style pilot in the world, but that doesn't mean that Long is the best deck because you can place with it due to said skill in a 16 man event. When several different players can pick up a 75 and top 8 with it, it says more about the decks raw power. We can quibble over the value of mastering a deck and mastering a format and how that plays into things like top 8'ing or winning - but we have to understand that not everyone MASTERS their decks and as such % points are given/taken away.

Your last sentence is absurd. I never once said to be on the draw against unknown opponents. In fact, several times I have said in this thread that you always take the play because of the decided disadvantage of being on the draw against Workshops and Blue Combo(the good lists with Tinker/TV+K). I have only ever stated to be on the draw in the Landstill or Bomberman mirrors. I stand behind those remarks and will continue to do so. For empirical evidence, I played three control mirrors at the latest event. The player with choice chose to draw every game of the 8 that were played. Serve was only broken when a player got heavily flooded, having a +5 in mana sources. Seems like it might not be so crazy after all...

[TheWhiteDragon]

I hope people draw against combo decks "to get the extra card."  LOL.  I'll do my best to make sure you don't get a turn.  

I draw against your Burning Oath deck every time. Haven't dropped a game. I don't know how it ever wins against competent Blue pilots.

I'd also assume that you beat that deck with your build regardless of play or draw...or you always have the FoW turn 0

[Samoht]

I hope people draw against combo decks "to get the extra card."  LOL.  I'll do my best to make sure you don't get a turn.  

I draw against your Burning Oath deck every time. Haven't dropped a game. I don't know how it ever wins against competent Blue pilots.

I'd also assume that you beat that deck with your build regardless of play or draw...or you always have the FoW turn 0

I believe the deck is very weak against UGr Landstill. Explosives completely negates the value of any EtW lines. Multiple turn 0 counters outside of just FoW allow the game to progress, and every turn that it goes beyond 2-3 favors the control player. Also Burning Long has very few t1 wins on the spot, most really fire on turns 2/3. At that point, I likely have a Standstill down or have attacked their very fragile mana base. Either way, the deck is fighting an uphill battle.

[Smmenen]

I also disagree with stating that the best combo pilots always beat the best control pilots. I'd say that your skewing your analysis based on the events that you've played in the distant past where Blue was a severe dog to Storm, only really having Stifle as an out(if they played it) or catching a counter on a bottle neck card that could easily just be bait.

This conversation is now off-topic, but you misunderstand the history of the format.  I am not talking about storm decks or even the last decade, but the long history of Restricted List combo that precedes storm and flows through storm.  

I'm talking about, for example, Prosperity decks from 1997 (like Olle Rade's that won the 1997 Invitational) to Academy decks of '98-99, to Necro-Illusions decks of 99-00 up through the first and latest iteration of Restricted list combo decks using storm.  Burning Tendrils is just the latest verison of the Restircted List combo deck.  Just to give you example, when all of the Pros on the Invitational were playing Necro combo decks or Academy decks before that, the Vintage community on Bdominia was wedded to playing Keeper variants.  Brian Weissman famously played Pat Chapin's Prosperity combo deck a bunch of matches in 1997, and Olle Rade famously  beat Mike Long's keeper at the 1997 Invitational finals.  Kai Budde famously beat control decks with post-restriction 5c Trix in the 2001 Invitationals as well.   Yet, the Vintage community -- and all of the top players on Team Paragon (myself included) were moping along playing our latest iteration of 4c/5c Control, just as Weissman and his followers were stuck to playing Keeper variants, almost laughably so, where Oscar tan's article even talked about restricting Back to basics.

When eternal formats like Vintage or Legacy are dominated by slow control decks, that is usually evidence of an undeveloped metagame relative to what it would be if there was a more professional partcipiation in the format.   This phenomenon was also visible in legacy until the advent of the SCG circuit.  Local tournaments were often dominated by Landstill decks, for example.  It took months of higher level competition to eventually weed these decks form the format.   I'm not saying that these decks can't even win, but that this isn't the natural equilibrium of eternal formats.  Decks with combo finishes like Key/vault or tempo decks are.  

The format has drastically changed since you were traveling in the circuit and playing all the time at major events. You can lean on that knowledge for advantages at times, but you have to realize that the shift in the cards that are allowed to be played (based on printings/restrictions) has altered how things play out, Cards like Mental Misstep(freely stopping Dark Ritual and Duress/Thoughtseize), Flusterstorm, and Mindbreak Trap heavily influence the power level of dedicated restricted list combo decks and their value in modern Vintage. If you disagree with that, I really can't discuss this further with you as you are either ignoring the value in those printings or blind to the changes they have brought.

I am not ignoring or underestimating the value of those changes, but I think, on the contrary, you aren't balancing them against other changes and may also be overestimating the importance of those printings.   For example, you aren't accounting for unrestrictions that have strenghtened combos case, like Burning Wish and Chrome Mox, and new printings, like Mox Opal, Griselbrand and Empty.  And while there have been printings like MBT, Fluster, and MM, these cards are all constrained by the space that blue decks can justifiably devote maindeck or sideboard to them because of Shops, for example.  

With the weapons available to Blue Control players today, they can easily modify their decks to be decidedly advantageous in any combo match. Lodestone Golem wasn't the death knell for combo, it was the juxtaposition of Lodestone with MBT and Flusterstorm, followed by MM that really took TPS/Long out of the format as a dominant deck.

Totally disagree.  What took TPS out of the format after winning the Vintage Champs in 2008 wasn't Mindbreak Trap or any card like that, but was rather the restoration of Time Vault.  Tezzeret decks were only about a turn or so slower than TPS decks, and much more disruptive.  

When blue decks only combo out at a half turn to full turn slower than dedicated combo, and yet pack far more disruption and countermagic, they will always be better positioned to win.   Your theory of the case misunderstands the actual history and reality of the way in which the Vintage metagame unfolded.  TPS didn't go away because of countermagic.  It went away, as a matter of historical fact, because of Time Vault/Tinker.  

Your last sentence is absurd. I never once said to be on the draw against unknown opponents. In fact, several times I have said in this thread that you always take the play because of the decided disadvantage of being on the draw against Workshops and Blue Combo(the good lists with Tinker/TV+K). I have only ever stated to be on the draw in the Landstill or Bomberman mirrors.

You also happened to mention being on the draw against combo, and entertained it against some Shop variants, so don't pretend like you only stated being on the draw against a very narrow subset of control decks.  In any case, you also said you'd be on the play against Time Vault decks, yet the Bomberman deck that top4ed Vintage Champs last year had Key Vault as well.  Another contradiction.  

[hitman]

When blue decks only combo out at a half turn to full turn slower than dedicated combo, and yet pack far more disruption and countermagic, they will always be better positioned to win. Your theory of the case misunderstands the actual history and reality of the way in which the Vintage metagame unfolded. TPS didn't go away because of countermagic. It went away, as a matter of historical fact, because of Time Vault/Tinker.

I agree completely.  I use to play TPS but after the unerrata of Time Vault, I found it too hard to beat the blue, TV decks.  Flusterstorm, Mental Misstep and Mindbreak Trap hadn't come out yet. The three may be situationally better than other counter spells but just as bad as it is good in other situations.

[Smmenen]

When blue decks only combo out at a half turn to full turn slower than dedicated combo, and yet pack far more disruption and countermagic, they will always be better positioned to win. Your theory of the case misunderstands the actual history and reality of the way in which the Vintage metagame unfolded. TPS didn't go away because of countermagic. It went away, as a matter of historical fact, because of Time Vault/Tinker.

I agree completely.  I use to play TPS but after the unerrata of Time Vault, I found it too hard to beat the blue, TV decks.  Flusterstorm, Mental Misstep and Mindbreak Trap hadn't come out yet. The three may be situationally better than other counter spells but just as bad as it is good in other situations.

Yeah, the disappearance of Restricted list combo in Vintage has absolutely nothing to do with the printing of new counterspells lol.  It was because of Time Vault and Workshops increasing density of Spheres. 

[vaughnbros]

To get back on topic.  I haven't actually run any numbers on this or anything, but in constructed formats in general, not just vintage, the only time I've ever wanted to be on the draw has been in mirror matches.

Specifically from my experience in vintage, I've felt like I was favored in the Workshops vs. Workshops, Delver vs. Delver, Landstill vs. Landstill, when I was on the draw.  However, I don't feel as though its huge advantage in any of these situations.   At the same time I've felt that in every non mirror match I've wanted to be on the play and this does make a huge difference in some match ups.  So to game 1 blindly choose to draw in a match seems like pretty big play error to me.

The simple fact of the matter is that generally having the first main phase, first attack phase, and first untap phase is simply just better than having the first draw phase.

[GrandpaBelcher]

When I was playing Belcher constantly, I had noticeably better win rates against blue decks when I was on the draw. The extra card made a difference, either getting me closer to another threat, building storm for Empty the Warrens, or finding more mana. There were a couple tournaments where I chose to draw against opponents whom I knew weren't on Shops or GAT (because of the Duress effects). It was effective. Meadbert actually ran some numbers on this for me:

Okay so I just finished gathering information.

I split games into 4 groups.  I considered whether the opponent had Unmask/Duress/Thoughtseize/Thorn/Resistor.
I also considered if Belcher was on the play or the draw.

Some decks (like Slaver) may have no Resistors pre board, but then have them post board.

I did not count Chalice, Rod, Needle, Stifle and other threats that can come down on turn 1.

Against decks with Duress/Resistor here were results:
On the play:  27-23
On the draw: 23-27

I am actually surprised it was that close.  I really would have expected being on the play to be more important.

Against decks without Duress/Resistor here were the results:
On the play: 19-13
On the draw: 21-11

Here your hypothesis held up.  It does appear that Belcher is betting when on the draw if its opponent does not run Unmask/Duress/Thoughtseize/Thorn/Resistor.

This was before even Spell Pierce was printed (so long before Mindbreak Trap, Misstep, and Flusterstorm). I don't know that I would choose to be on the draw anymore because the first Island opens up things like Pierce and Fluster, which are difficult to play around. And I'm not choosing to play Belcher much anymore either because of the additional free counters. In fact, I'm not even sure that this post is especially relevant. Carry on.

[Cruel Ultimatum]

When blue decks only combo out at a half turn to full turn slower than dedicated combo, and yet pack far more disruption and countermagic, they will always be better positioned to win. Your theory of the case misunderstands the actual history and reality of the way in which the Vintage metagame unfolded. TPS didn't go away because of countermagic. It went away, as a matter of historical fact, because of Time Vault/Tinker.

I agree completely.  I use to play TPS but after the unerrata of Time Vault, I found it too hard to beat the blue, TV decks.  Flusterstorm, Mental Misstep and Mindbreak Trap hadn't come out yet. The three may be situationally better than other counter spells but just as bad as it is good in other situations.

Yeah, the disappearance of Restricted list combo in Vintage has absolutely nothing to do with the printing of new counterspells lol.  It was because of Time Vault and Workshops increasing density of Spheres. 

That may have been true when thirst was unrestricted, but that isnt very relevant. Its not mental misstep or flusterstorm that beats storm though, its a combinatiom of the two. Misstep does very little against storm on its own, other then slow it down a bit. But missteps counter duress, which protects your flusterstorms. That is a problem, and that is what drove storm out.

[TheWhiteDragon]

I think storm got hit by an accumulation of things - the unrestriction of TV, golem seeing print, fluster/pierce/mindbreak/misstep being printed, and possibly some other pieces to the puzzle.  When you see a guy shot dead with 40 bullet wounds, it's kind of pointless to determine which 1 bullet actually killed him first.

Back on topic - always play when given the chance if you are blind to the matchup.  The plays of storm, shops, and dredge (and aggro thanks to ethersworn/leonin/thalia) can really make your life miserable when they get to go first. Your fetches and explosive starts can be completely nullified as well as just shutting out your 1cc spells on turn 0.  If you know it is a control-control mirror, draw (maybe).

You'll learn all the info you can from an opponent regardless of play or draw.

[John Cox]

When I started magic we played rock paper scissor to see who went first, but there was no play/draw rule. You got to draw a card either way. These games went really long so being on the play had no advantage.
I think since then the play/draw rule has led to a few advantages.
-On the play
1) Your ahead in land drops. Usually you'll max out on land drops by the 4'th turn, reaching turn four first is a big deal.
2) You can play sorceries first. This is mainly duress effects but when you think about it anything from time walk to merchant scroll have a huge impact when they are cast early.
3) planes walkers, creatures, enchantments ->see above
5) you get to play bazaar of Baghdad first.
6) you get to play all acceleration in your hand without fear of lock pieces or being second.

-The draw,
1)Your essentially reverse mulliganing yourself. You would be lying to say you want to start every match mulliganed. Having an extra card helps.

[Greg]

I find it interesting that, even with all of this discussion and people advocating that being on draw could be beneficial, I can't recall one opponent that chose to "draw" against me at any of the numerous Vintage events that I've played in. Not one time comes to mind. (I always play some variant of an Oath of Druids deck, so I'm not sure how that factors into the equation, if at all.)

How many people here can actually say that their opponent has chosen to "draw" against them? What were they playing and what were you playing?

I am finding it difficult to imagine an Oath pilot preferring to be on the draw. However, the more that I think about it, perhaps being on the draw has benefits in an Oath mirror match, especially for game one. That's something I might experiment with in the future.

[TheWhiteDragon]

When you know what you are playing against, oath is one of the few decks drawing would be beneficial.  If you know you are against aggro or creature control, it is beneficial to let the opponent drop bob or noble so you can activate oath - they won't play into a resolved oath if you don't have orchard.  On the other hand, they could turn 1 jace/tinker->BSC and then your oath will be too late - or they could drop thalia and then you'd be even further behind on playing your oath.  I guess it's a gamble no matter what.  Best thing is to just play unless you are on oath and know your opponent is on merfolk, lol.

[Cruel Ultimatum]

I find it interesting that, even with all of this discussion and people advocating that being on draw could be beneficial, I can't recall one opponent that chose to "draw" against me at any of the numerous Vintage events that I've played in. Not one time comes to mind. (I always play some variant of an Oath of Druids deck, so I'm not sure how that factors into the equation, if at all.)

How many people here can actually say that their opponent has chosen to "draw" against them? What were they playing and what were you playing?

I am finding it difficult to imagine an Oath pilot preferring to be on the draw. However, the more that I think about it, perhaps being on the draw has benefits in an Oath mirror match, especially for game one. That's something I might experiment with in the future.

Greg, I would advocate drawing when both sides of the table are on landstill or bomberman. Other then that, I think you need to choose to be on the play.