Dakra Mystic

[MaximumCDawg]

So we got our first crop of spoilers, and it looks like Journey Into Nix might be way better for eternal formats than its predecessors.  The core new mechanic of the set is Constellation, which is basically Enchantmantfall.  ETB effects for enchantments seem way, way better than creature-based or combat-based mechanics we've had recently.  We already have a new Enchantress creature that's a 2GG wall which is also an enchantment itself!  Here's hoping things keep getting better, there.

My favorite of the new spoilers, though, is a new 1-drop for Merfolk:


This card is amazing.  AMAZING.  If it were only a howling mine at U with an upkeep cost of U, it'd be playable in turbofog or other wacky builds like that.  But, no, it gives you a choice about whether your opponent gets that bomb or not before you decide to have everyone draw!  

Remember when Kevin and Steve were debating about the effect of exiling a card off your opponent's library in the context of Nightveil Specter?  They were talking about how damaging it is to a Vintage deck to take away the topdeck?  Well, THIS is the card that I think should actually prompt that analysis because it gives you information BEFORE you make the decision.

I do not know if I'd go as far as saying this dork can replace Bob in non-black Wizards lists -- mostly because it has to tap to use its ability.  But it seems very, very strong, and it's priced correctly to be playable in Vintage.  Bravo!

EDIT: Ever been behind on the board when Jace starts fatesealing you?  Well now you're going to face that on turn 2!  Seriously, I'm thinking this is close to Deathrite Shaman level of good.  It's a little harder to cast and activate than him, but the choice between "mill topdecks" and "everyone draws" --AFTER YOU SEE THE TOPDECKS -- is really, really powerful.

Added pic.
-MM

[xouman]

nice synergy with spirit of the labyrinth or notion thief, but I'm not sure it's good enough for competitive play. In turbofog, though...

[MaximumCDawg]

Yeah, it's silly with Spirit, which is nice, but I think it's got a good deal more potential than being just another Mine effect on its own.

Remember, when you need to draw a card - this does it.  Alternatively, if you need to fateseal your opponent to ensure you're still winning on the board -- this does that, too.  And you get to know what the card is before you choose.  This is like having half a Jace on the board on turn 1. 

Summoning sickness is the only downside I see here.

[vaughnbros]

He seems good and well designed.  As long as you are making good decisions you should be gaining better card quality than your opponent after every activation.

The mill 1 effect also shuts off top deck tutors, and can certainly give an opponent with a sensei's top a headache.  It can also synergy well with your own Jace, top, and brainstorm.

The draw 1 can disrupt Library of Alexandria activation, and synergizes well with spirit of the labyrinth and notion thief.  

Conclusion:  I'm not sure if merfolk actually wants to play him, but he seems like he could be a decent option for either blue control or creature decks if they are already playing cards that work well with him.  I see him likely as a fringe play singleton on par with something like Gorilla Shaman, but would be pleasantly surprised if its better than that.

[MaximumCDawg]

All true, but an opponent with Top actually is in a pretty good position with this card.  He can top into something you're unlikely to mill in response to the ability and then draw into what he really wants 2 deep.  In other words, he can neuter Mystic just by keeping 1 mana open.

All of these tricks and interactions are just icing on the cake, though.  Having the ability to fateseal every turn all by itself is incredible value.  Turn 1: Mystic.  Turn 2: pass with Drain mana open and mystic open to fateseal at the opponent's end step.  So much value.

I don't see him in Merfolk unless you also run Vial, since he costs U to activate.  But in Wizards...?

on par with something like Gorilla Shaman, but would be pleasantly surprised if its better than that.

Eh, on the Shaman scale I'd put him above Gorilla but below Deathrite.  He does more than Gorilla does but not quite as much as Deathrite (who is easier to cast and bigger to boot).

[AmbivalentDuck]

Worth pointing out that he's a Merfolk Wizard. Both critter types already had critical mass of playable to support Cavern.

Also worth pointing out, this guy is really cute with Snapcaster and Surgical Extraction since you get a lot of control over your opponent's hand and grave.

[xouman]

Also has nice synergy with confidant. Maybe a hard control wizards deck, Ubw? Gitaxian probe and meddling mage could get in.

[MaximumCDawg]

I don't see the synergy with Confidant.  Remember, once you activate the ability, the card is either going into your hand or going into the yard, but it's not staying on top.  Mystic doesn't give you any more information about your remaining topdeck.

[Twiedel]

Sorry, but I don't see how this is anything near fatesealing an opponent

This is a cleverly designed card, that lets you see a trade (you draw 1, opponent draws 1) and then decide if the trade is made. For me, this reads a lot like: "U, Tap: Draw a card. This ability can only be used every other turn." Not particularly overwhelming, but not too shabby either... might see an application because it is a merfolk, and, as already stated, some nice utility in randomly milling key cards and killing topdeck tutors.

[boggyb]

Seems decent, borderline playable. Very mana hungry, which is not to be underestimated, as he seems best suited to a tempo strategy but has strong inherent dissynergies with that kind of play. I'd think Mikokoro would be a better choice: the small advantage of gaining information and nerfing topdeck tutors doesn't seem to outweigh the downsides of having to spend mana to cast him, having him be a dude instead of a mana-producing land, and having to wait a turn to use him.

[MaximumCDawg]

Sorry, but I don't see how this is anything near fatesealing an opponent

Howso?  You look at their top card and decide if they draw it or if it goes to the yard.  Sounds like a fateseal to me.  I guess it's worse if they have Snapcaster or some other way to access the yard, but even so you've stopped them from getting another use out of the card you milled.

[bactgudz]

Sorry, but I don't see how this is anything near fatesealing an opponent

Howso?  You look at their top card and decide if they draw it or if it goes to the yard.  Sounds like a fateseal to me.  I guess it's worse if they have Snapcaster or some other way to access the yard, but even so you've stopped them from getting another use out of the card you milled.

It's not at all as punishing as fateseal.  If you find trash on top of their deck with this, they draw it right away for free.  If you fateseal and see trash, they lose their next draw step drawing the trash.  It is still a good effect, but not fatesealing.

It's like a fateseal if you see gold on top of their deck, but not trash...so 30-70% of the effectiveness of fateseal maybe depending on game situations

[diopter]

Excellent and well-designed card. The effect is extremely Vintage relevant and is at a nice point in the curve (despite the prevalence of Misstep). Hard to say where it might go, which is actually a point in its favor I think.

I used to be quite negative on these utility creatures with added-value effects. Snapcaster, Clique, DRS, etc. Utter trash, I thought.

I'm happy to be utterly wrong. Time and tide have demonstrated that they are in fact very powerful, especially in the last year's diversifying metagame.

I mean who would have thought that a creature that is used as Birds of Paradise more than 50% of the time would be good in Vintage? Turns out the incremental value of the other 50% is pretty good.

Similarly, a limited Regrowth on a stick, while maybe not "best ever", is still amazing and good enough to close a lot of games.

[diopter]

BTW, I don't think fateseal is the right way to look at this. The value is in controlling the relative power delta of the topdecks. So it probably has applicabilty in both Grixis goodstuff (where you aim to break the symmetry) and fish variants (where you aim to bring the opponent to your level).

[vaughnbros]

I agree with the sentiment that this is not fateseal at all.  You do not have the ability to manipulate your opponents normal draws since the top card is always gone, either in their hand or in the graveyard.

It should be noted that this card is pretty miserable against combo decks and shops.  Also if your deck has less gas or less graveyard effects than your opponent accelerating the way through both players libraries can be a disadvantage. 

[MaximumCDawg]

I guess it isn't quite a fateseal, in that you have no option of leaving the junk on top where it is.  That's true.  But it's AWFULLY close, and where the two mechanics differ, it's not obvious that pure fateseal is better:

1. Trash on Top

With Jace, you fateseal.  You see trash, so you leave it there.  They draw trash next turn.  You draw a random card the turn after.  Then you can fateseal again.

With Mystic, you activate.  You see trash, so you have everyone draw.  They get trash and you get whatever.  They then get to draw a random card during draw step.  On your turn, you draw a random card.  Then you activate Mystic again.

So, Jace prevents them from drawing a random card.  Mystic lets them draw a random card, but gives you another card at the same time.

2. The Nuts on Top

With Jace, you fateseal.  You see awesomesauce, fateseal it away.  Opp draws a random card next turn.  You draw a random card on your turn and can fateseal again.

With Mystic, you activate.  You see awesomesause, bin it.  Opp draws a random card next turn.  You draw a random card on your turn and can activate again.

In this scenario there's no difference except whether the topdeck goes into the bin or back into the library.

[vaughnbros]

No you still don't quite get it.  The abilities really aren't interchangeable.  

No matter what I do with this card activate it or not, mill the cards or draw them, the card my opponent gets on their turn is random and I have no information on it.  This is only comparable to Jace's fateseal when I bottom the card with Jace.  However, when I leave the card with fateseal, Jace's ability is significantly better, since I now know your only draw for the last turn.  This information gained makes them incomparable in power level.  Not to mention every time I fateseal I am that much closer to victory via his ultimate.

You are also completing disregarding that with this ability you draw or mill your top card too.  Jace's fateseal only depends on their top card.  If its bad you have them draw it.  If its good you bottom it.  This card's ability is dependent on relative power level between your top card and their top card.  If my top card > their top card, draw the cards.  If their top card > my top card, mill the cards.

[diopter]

I think we can admit that the half of it that affects the opponent is fateseal-ish in the sense that it provides some level of card quality control without explicit card advantage.

It's the effect on both players that gives it a whole other dimension.

[Samoht]

I'm with Lance. This is nothing at all like fatesealing. It's still powerful. Let's not be so quick to draw parallels here.

[AmbivalentDuck]

So checklist:
1. Goes in Merfolk? (Tentative no.)
2. Goes in UR Delver? (Tentative no.)
3. Goes in BUG Delver? (maybe)
4. Goes in Cavern Wizards? (maybe)
5. Goes in Grixis control? (No.)
6. Goes in Ichorid? (maybe)
7. Brings colored Shops back? (No.)
8. Brings reanimator back? (No.)

This card doesn't exist in a vacuum.

[brianpk80]

What I like about this card is that it's a huge skill tester.  I find the Wizard subtype more relevant than the Merfolk subtype since this is much more at home in a control setting than aggro.  It gives you a very wide range of options in a lot of situations.  

[Smmenen]

More fundamentally, it is decision intensive -- forcing each user to weigh the value of your card against your opponents in order to decide whether to draw or not.   That's an element of Magic most players enjoy.  Great design.

[TheWhiteDragon]

One of the big things about this that makes it worse than fateseal (and not really like fateseal at all) is that they get a random draw on their turn EVERY turn, no matter what you decide with the card.  With Jace, you can bury their answers to Jace as well as other bombs, giving them only crap in hand.  With this, every turn they get a chance to draw a bomb or answer independent of what you see.  That's not great.

Also, this can lead to sucky scenarios since it's hitting you both.  Yeah, you can live the dream and reveal ancestral while your opponent reveals island, but what about when you reveal yawg will and your opponent an ancestral?  Maybe you can't win THAT turn with yawg will, but do you bin it?  What if you reveal something decent like a bob and they reveal preordain?  Do you kill your own bob to bin preordain and let them get a random card next turn anyway?  Or do you let him grab preordain so you keep bob and then he casts it to get the nuts card?

More often than not, fateseal locks your opponent out of any reasonable draw (at least for the 5 turns it takes to go ultimate).  This guy gives them a fresh card every turn to wreak havoc.

Still, I like the design.  Fun card.  Great with SotL.

[xouman]

Apart from cavern wizards, I think that Grixis is one of the best decks for this card. Yes, I misstook it's synergy with confidant (has 0), but playing duress and tgz you know they hand and then the ability is better (you know what they need), snapcaster gets fuel, and cards like extirpate/surgical extraction improve.

Another card that gets some value with it is Library of alexandria. If far easier to get 7 cards if you can draw extra cards. However hard control does not want opponents to draw extra cards, so most of the time you would find discarding cards instead of drawing them. Just pack Deep Analysis, bloodghasts and you have an imaginative engine plus a terrible deck :p

[gkraigher]

The only reason I like this card is because it can effectively counter mystical and vampiric tutor, although that cannot happen on turn 1 which negates this ability a lot.  That being said, it seems very narrow in context outside of that.  Yes, it does only produce cards in times of need or advantage, but that situation isn't as probable as you think.

Let's draw out the basic permutations:

My card helps me & my opponent's card does nothing = keep
My card does nothing & my opponent's card does nothing = probably going to pitch due to asymmetric information
My card helps me & my opponent's card helps him = This depends on the situation.  
My card does nothing & my opponent's card helps him = pitch

there are a lot more advanced situations involving mediocre cards where without having the information of what is in your opponent's hand, things get even more complicated.  

So, what does the card do.  it's a 1/1 blue merfolk who you dump mana into over the course of a game.  It doesn't attack much, so in that regards it would be better off not being a creature at all.  It would attack in a merfolk deck, but I don't think this card is what the merfolk decks want to be doing.  They would be better off with another punisher than something cute.  

I don't see it, unless you turn any disadvantage the card may have into an advantage (i.e. notion thief).

[fsecco]

Maybe this goes well in Humanstorm? I love the deck and this could be good there, just as Mikokoro is good. I like the card. It let's you dig answers. I can only imagine how this boy would behave in Meandeck Gifts era.

[MTGFan]

The problem here, as other people have noted, is that it does not affect the opponent's actual draw step. Regardless of whether or not you send the card to the bottom, your opponent will still have access to fresh draws during his draw step. This is far less powerful than Jace's fateseal ability, and will likely see little to no play in any eternal format.

[fsecco]

Of course it's less powerful than Jace's fateseal, and I don't think we should be even discussing this, since it's a COMPLETELY DIFFERENT ability. Also, it costs 1, so it gets online much quicker.

That said, I think they're quite similar in where CA matters. Of course with Jace, if it reveals junk, you waste the guys turn, so it's TEMPO advantage is much, much, much better. But when it comes to CA, they're quite the same.

For me the thing is that it speeds turns when both draw. You can get your threats but your opponent can get answers or vice versa, but it's nothing that wouldn't happen given the time. The fact that you can get rid of what you don't want him to draw is very, very nice. Also, the timing you choose to activate him can give a lot of advantages to you.

[MaximumCDawg]

Let's analyze the impact here a little more.

Assume your opponent has seven removal spells in the deck that you can't let them have.  If they draw removal, they win, let's say.  On this particular turn, they have 50 cards left in their library.  So you activate Mystic.  The chances of the removal they need being on top is 7/50, and if you hit, you move it to the bottom.  Assuming no shuffle, they now have a 6/49 chance of drawing another one.   If you don't hit, they have a 7/49 chance of drawing it next.

So how has Mystic affected your opponent's probability of drawing what he needs?
Without mystic, he had a 14% chance to draw his out.
When you activate mystic, 14% of the time you will bin his answer, leaving him with a 12% chance to draw it next.
The other 76% of the time, you will dig him closer to his answer, leaving him with a 14.28% chance to draw it next.

I don't have the math tools to generalize this idea to determine whether it's actually worth it to mill with this guy.  Perhaps someone else does?

What I think this does imply, though, is that whether Mystic helps or hurts your opponent on average depends on how many cards you want to prohibit them from drawing and how many cards are left in their deck.  If you want to stop them from drawing a large portion of their deck, you probably get more value out of Mystic than if you're just looking to isolate a particular card.

Duck, can you bring some of your math skillz to bear on this?  The ones you were showing off in the card prices thread?

[DubDub]

Let's analyze the impact here a little more.

Assume your opponent has seven removal spells in the deck that you can't let them have.  If they draw removal, they win, let's say.  On this particular turn, they have 50 cards left in their library.  So you activate Mystic.  The chances of the removal they need being on top is 7/50, and if you hit, you move it to the bottom.  Assuming no shuffle, they now have a 6/49 chance of drawing another one.   If you don't hit, they have a 7/49 chance of drawing it next.

So how has Mystic affected your opponent's probability of drawing what he needs?
Without mystic, he had a 14% chance to draw his out.
When you activate mystic, 14% of the time you will bin his answer, leaving him with a 12% chance to draw it next.
The other 76% of the time, you will dig him closer to his answer, leaving him with a 14.28% chance to draw it next.

I don't have the math tools to generalize this idea to determine whether it's actually worth it to mill with this guy.  Perhaps someone else does?

What I think this does imply, though, is that whether Mystic helps or hurts your opponent on average depends on how many cards you want to prohibit them from drawing and how many cards are left in their deck.  If you want to stop them from drawing a large portion of their deck, you probably get more value out of Mystic than if you're just looking to isolate a particular card.

Duck, can you bring some of your math skillz to bear on this?  The ones you were showing off in the card prices thread?

First off, 14% + 76% is 90%...

Second off, where are you getting the idea that the card goes to the bottom of their library?  It's not fate-sealing... it mills.  If the opponent already has Snapcaster/Regrowth/Yawgwill then you're getting them closer to the key card no matter what.