Gauntlet for Eternal Weekend

[Hrishi]

Hi there. The upcoming eternal weekend will be the first time I'll be attending a Vintage event of this size. For this reason, I wanted to prepare for it as well as I possibly can! I apologize if this is in the wrong section, but I was curious to know what sort of gauntlet I should be looking to test my planned deck against? Starting this early gives me plenty of time to make changes and everything. I can name some popular decks off the top of my head but I would have no idea specifically what I should be testing against.

Appreciate any responses!

[oshkoshhaitsyosh]

I believe RUG and UR delver are going to be extremely extremely popular...many of them sporting treasure cruise. On the workshops side of things I expect Tera Nova to be highly represented no matter if the pilot knows how to properly pilot it or not. The deck has been on a tear! This are the 2 decks to watch out for. But here's what I think overall...

Delver
Tera Nova
Bug fish
Slaver/Grixis
Oath
Merfolk
UW variants

[Smmenen]

Since it's the east coast, I expect a ton of UW control variants.

[Twiedel]

If I was going, I'd be looking at these archetypes and prepare accordingly:

- Workshops
(will not be played in huge ammounts, but will be at the top tables, as always. Terra Nova is the most popular version right now)
- Delver
(will be played in huge ammounts, and is decent when you're soft to their counters)
- Dredge
(will be played in great ammounts as every year, not too storng but you'll need 6+ cards)
- Oath variants
(make sure to have an out to these guys, Griselbrand is scary. The rest not so much)
- Control decks
(Grixis isn't top notch, make sure you pratice playing against the new Slaver lists, they'll be much more popular)
- BUG Fish
(a real force in Europe right now, and some people will bring it. Be prepared to deal with this deck)
- UW variants / Mono U control
(not sure if playtesting is necessary if you don't expect to be soft to slow control decks. Just be aware you might face one of those)
- Merfolk
(won't be played in big numbers, doesn't warrant huge testing)
- Hatebears / Aggro variants
(with the rise of Delver in the US I think there won't be huge ammounts, but still some people will play this stuff unpowered. Shouldn't be too concerning, except when you're on Workshops)

Everything else will be fringe I guess, but depends on what you're playing yourself. Some peopleWILL bring fast Combo, but I cannot see that being concerning ammounts or good times for them with Misstep and Flusterstorm heavily played alongside disruptive creatures. I would focus on dealing with said creatures and not waste too much space to overload on Storm hate.

[DaveKap]

How do these percentages look:

20% MUD
15% Delver
15% Control
10% Dredge
10% BUG
10% Oath
5%   Hatebears/Aggro
5%   Storm
5%   Merfolk
5%   UW Control

[Samoht]

How do these percentages look:

20% MUD
15% Delver
15% Control
10% Dredge
10% BUG
10% Oath
5%   Hatebears/Aggro
5%   Storm
5%   Merfolk
5%   UW Control

Your MUD is high. Delver is low. I think you're a little low on "control" but I wouldn't segregate out UW like you did. UW SHOULD be much more than 5% but that's if people pay attention to results. I think Dredge will be a little bit more.

[Smmenen]

UW was most popular deck at Waterbury by my count during my bye.  It's underrepresented on Magic online because of timer.

Also, there will be more blue decks than in that breakdown.

Workshops will be around 18%.  Will be about 3/4% budget decks.

[Will]

Will be about 3/4% budget decks.

What do you mean by this, Steve? I'm assuming you don't include something like Merfolk as a budget deck, right?

[Smmenen]

Will be about 3/4% budget decks.

What do you mean by this, Steve? I'm assuming you don't include something like Merfolk as a budget deck, right?

no.  i mean like the decks that people played last year to win the unpowered prize.

remember, this is a zero proxy tournament, and those 3-4% will be playing for the unpowered/budget prize.  There were lots of W/R type decks.  

EDIT:

Here is my metagame prediction for a field of 300 players:

18% MUD (mixture of Terra Nova and Forgemaster and other)
14% General 3c/4c Control
12.5% Delver (mix of Gush and non-Gush)
9% U/W Control (Bomberman, Stoneforge, Magus decks, etc)
7.5% Control Oath
7.5% Dredge
7% BUG
5.5% Merfolk
5% Misc Unclassifiable Blue decks (Like UB Control, Landstill, Esper, Tezzerator, etc).
3.5% Budget Hatebear decks
3% Control Slaver
2.5% Storm (Gitaxian Long, Burning Tendrils, TPS, etc).

5% Misc (Doomsday, Rector, Goblins, Etc)

[vaughnbros]

These were the 3-0 decks reported by wizards (Reclassifying what they reported):
21%   Shops
17%   Dredge
14%   UW/Landstill Control
10%   Grixis Control (Tinker?)
10%   Storm
7%   Oath
7%   Other Combo (Depths, Worldgorger)
7%   Hatebears
3%   Delver
3%   BUG

I feel like the Vintage metagame changes pretty slowly so I'd expect this to be the same that you will see this year.

[Smmenen]

These were the 3-0 decks reported by wizards (Reclassifying what they reported):
21%   Shops
17%   Dredge
14%   UW/Landstill Control
10%   Grixis Control (Tinker?)
10%   Storm
7%   Oath
7%   Other Combo (Depths, Worldgorger)
7%   Hatebears
3%   Delver
3%   BUG

I feel like the Vintage metagame changes pretty slowly so I'd expect this to be the same that you will see this year.

Interesting.  I would have guessed slightly less Shops, but 21% shops in a 300+ field is pretty impressive, and Shops are much better this year, so it could be even higher.  Or, more likely, Shops were overrepresented at 3-0.

[Hrishi]

Wow, just 3% Delver? I imagine that number will be significantly different for champs.

[Varal]

Delver was really good last year as it wasn't expected that much but no one will be surprised by creature decks this year.

Also looking only at 3-0 decks means each individual player has a big impact, 7% is only 2 players. The 4-0 metagame or the 5-1 metagame could possibly be completely different.

[Chubby Rain]

With 300 people, theoretically 37.5 people would be 3-0 (1/8th of the total field). Byes, draws, and pair downs would complicate this. However, there is probably some selection bias as there are some really good Shop players in the NE and the deck always seems to be perpetually underrepresented for how good it is. Dredge also tends to punish those in the earlier rounds who skip on the hate or don't really understand the match up.

I agree with Steve for the most part but I could see Delver and Dredge being more prevalent and the traditional 3-4 color control decks less prevalent. Treasure Cruise is the real deal and I think people have been moving away from the traditional Drain builds.

I would focus on

Shops (Terra Nova and Martello - Not Expresso or Metalworker)
Delver
Dredge
Oath
UW control/Big Blue

Those are the matchups I can see facing 2-3 times during a 8-9 round tournament.

[vaughnbros]

There were 29 decks in the 3-0 bracket.  This is the only data we have available on the meta, other than the top 8.  The question is do you really care about what decks are losing?

It's also important to remember a lot of deck choices are made based on availability as well as picking their pet deck and choose less on what is the most optimal decklist.  There were quite a number of players where this is one of their only vintage tournaments of the year, either they are in an area without vintage or they are usually a legacy player, so the meta shifts dramatically compared to what is happening in vintage outside of this tournament. 

[Chubby Rain]

There were 29 decks in the 3-0 bracket.  This is the only data we have available on the meta, other than the top 8.  The question is do you really care about what decks are losing?

It's also important to remember a lot of deck choices are made based on availability as well as picking their pet deck and choose less on what is the most optimal decklist.  There were quite a number of players where this is one of their only vintage tournaments of the year, either they are in an area without vintage or they are usually a legacy player, so the meta shifts dramatically compared to what is happening in vintage outside of this tournament. 

Unless you have byes, you still have to play the first couple of rounds before selective pressures take effect but I do agree with you that it becomes less important as the tournament progresses. People play their pet decks and card availability is also a thing in other formats, too - this isn't necessarily an argument against constructing a gauntlet for playtesting purposes or in attempting to forecast the metagame.

[Samoht]

With 300 people, theoretically 37.5 people would be 3-0 (1/8th of the total field). Byes, draws, and pair downs would complicate this. However, there is probably some selection bias as there are some really good Shop players in the NE and the deck always seems to be perpetually underrepresented for how good it is. Dredge also tends to punish those in the earlier rounds who skip on the hate or don't really understand the match up.

I agree with Steve for the most part but I could see Delver and Dredge being more prevalent and the traditional 3-4 color control decks less prevalent. Treasure Cruise is the real deal and I think people have been moving away from the traditional Drain builds.

I would focus on

Shops (Terra Nova and Martello - Not Expresso or Metalworker)
Delver
Dredge
Oath
UW control/Big Blue

Those are the matchups I can see facing 2-3 times during a 8-9 round tournament.

Espresso mat. Like the brown coffee...

[Chubby Rain]

With 300 people, theoretically 37.5 people would be 3-0 (1/8th of the total field). Byes, draws, and pair downs would complicate this. However, there is probably some selection bias as there are some really good Shop players in the NE and the deck always seems to be perpetually underrepresented for how good it is. Dredge also tends to punish those in the earlier rounds who skip on the hate or don't really understand the match up.

I agree with Steve for the most part but I could see Delver and Dredge being more prevalent and the traditional 3-4 color control decks less prevalent. Treasure Cruise is the real deal and I think people have been moving away from the traditional Drain builds.

I would focus on

Shops (Terra Nova and Martello - Not Expresso or Metalworker)
Delver
Dredge
Oath
UW control/Big Blue

Those are the matchups I can see facing 2-3 times during a 8-9 round tournament.

Espresso mat. Like the brown coffee...

I am really bad with deck names, like locket rocket...

[ErtaiAdept]

Given all the recent hype about Treasure Cruise and Dig Through Time,

Anyone have wagers on how many/ which types of decks we'll see featuring these cards?

[Will]

Given all the recent hype about Treasure Cruise and Dig Through Time,

Anyone have wagers on how many/ which types of decks we'll see featuring these cards?

In Top8 or overall? I could see the Top8 including 3-4 decks sporting large quantities of Dig and Love Boat. Does anyone know what was done with the decklists from last year? I would be extremely interested in seeing an actual metagame breakdown for the event, not just what decks were 3-0.

[Prospero]

Credit goes to Vinnie Forino for the Love Boat moniker.  Perfectly summarizes the card and people's reaction to it.  I love the Love Boat.

20% on Shops seems high.  All Vintage decks are expensive, but there are a lot of cards that you need for Shops that you don't need for any other deck.  If you wanted to play Terra Nova, you could easily end up spending more than $2,000 on Karakas and Tabernacles, which you'll use in virtually no non-Shop decks.

[Will]

With 300 people, theoretically 37.5 people would be 3-0 (1/8th of the total field). Byes, draws, and pair downs would complicate this. However, there is probably some selection bias as there are some really good Shop players in the NE and the deck always seems to be perpetually underrepresented for how good it is. Dredge also tends to punish those in the earlier rounds who skip on the hate or don't really understand the match up.

I agree with Steve for the most part but I could see Delver and Dredge being more prevalent and the traditional 3-4 color control decks less prevalent. Treasure Cruise is the real deal and I think people have been moving away from the traditional Drain builds.

I would focus on

Shops (Terra Nova and Martello - Not Expresso or Metalworker)
Delver
Dredge
Oath
UW control/Big Blue

Those are the matchups I can see facing 2-3 times during a 8-9 round tournament.

Espresso mat. Like the brown coffee...

I see what you did there Tom  .

I wonder if there will be more Shops or Dredge in the room on Sunday, especially since Black Lotus costs more than an entire Dredge deck.

[Varal]

I wonder if there will be more Shops or Dredge in the room on Sunday, especially since Black Lotus costs more than an entire Dredge deck.

There's way more Black Lotus playsets than Bazaar of Baghdad playsets. Sure Bazaar is cheaper but there is less playsets floating around.

[vaughnbros]

I wonder if there will be more Shops or Dredge in the room on Sunday, especially since Black Lotus costs more than an entire Dredge deck.

Not sure I follow this logic.  Black lotus is better in dredge than in most deck lists.  Sun Titan-->Lotus can be an essential play to beat sphere, and it makes all of the decks spells much easier to cast game 2/3.

[Will]

I wonder if there will be more Shops or Dredge in the room on Sunday, especially since Black Lotus costs more than an entire Dredge deck.

Not sure I follow this logic.  Black lotus is better in dredge than in most deck lists.  Sun Titan-->Lotus can be an essential play to beat sphere, and it makes all of the decks spells much easier to cast game 2/3.

I'm not saying that Lotus isn't good in Dredge. Being able to power out multiple anti-hate cards in one turn is excellent. In a deck like Dredge where you mulligan extremely aggressively, having a mana source which provides more than one mana is invaluable.

However, there are numerous Dredge lists which Top8ed in tournaments which allowed proxies that did not include Black Lotus. That leads me to believe that the consensus opinion among Dredge pilots as a whole is that you do not NEED Black Lotus to build a Dredge deck. I expect Dredge to be one of the most popular "budget" options because of the fact that aside from 4 Bazaar, you don't NEED any other cards which are expensive when compared to any of the other decks in the format.

You obviously know Dredge much better than I do, but I think it's hard to say that voluntarily excluding Lotus is outright wrong in Dredge, unlike almost every other deck in Vintage.

[vaughnbros]

I wonder if there will be more Shops or Dredge in the room on Sunday, especially since Black Lotus costs more than an entire Dredge deck.

Not sure I follow this logic.  Black lotus is better in dredge than in most deck lists.  Sun Titan-->Lotus can be an essential play to beat sphere, and it makes all of the decks spells much easier to cast game 2/3.

I'm not saying that Lotus isn't good in Dredge. Being able to power out multiple anti-hate cards in one turn is excellent. In a deck like Dredge where you mulligan extremely aggressively, having a mana source which provides more than one mana is invaluable.

However, there are numerous Dredge lists which Top8ed in tournaments which allowed proxies that did not include Black Lotus. That leads me to believe that the consensus opinion among Dredge pilots as a whole is that you do not NEED Black Lotus to build a Dredge deck. I expect Dredge to be one of the most popular "budget" options because of the fact that aside from 4 Bazaar, you don't NEED any other cards which are expensive when compared to any of the other decks in the format.

You obviously know Dredge much better than I do, but I think it's hard to say that voluntarily excluding Lotus is outright wrong in Dredge, unlike almost every other deck in Vintage.

I simply meant to point out that there are a lot of decks where lotus is worse than any permanent based mana source after about turn 3, landstill, delver, Merfolk, ect.  You could try and make the argument that a card that is bad after turn 3 is not worth playing, but I don't think that's necessarily true.  In dredge you are more likely to use it than these decks because of Sun Titan's ability to recur it against spheres.

[Will]

I wonder if there will be more Shops or Dredge in the room on Sunday, especially since Black Lotus costs more than an entire Dredge deck.

Not sure I follow this logic.  Black lotus is better in dredge than in most deck lists.  Sun Titan-->Lotus can be an essential play to beat sphere, and it makes all of the decks spells much easier to cast game 2/3.

I'm not saying that Lotus isn't good in Dredge. Being able to power out multiple anti-hate cards in one turn is excellent. In a deck like Dredge where you mulligan extremely aggressively, having a mana source which provides more than one mana is invaluable.

However, there are numerous Dredge lists which Top8ed in tournaments which allowed proxies that did not include Black Lotus. That leads me to believe that the consensus opinion among Dredge pilots as a whole is that you do not NEED Black Lotus to build a Dredge deck. I expect Dredge to be one of the most popular "budget" options because of the fact that aside from 4 Bazaar, you don't NEED any other cards which are expensive when compared to any of the other decks in the format.

You obviously know Dredge much better than I do, but I think it's hard to say that voluntarily excluding Lotus is outright wrong in Dredge, unlike almost every other deck in Vintage.

I simply meant to point out that there are a lot of decks where lotus is worse than any permanent based mana source after about turn 3, landstill, delver, Merfolk, ect.  You could try and make the argument that a card that is bad after turn 3 is not worth playing, but I don't think that's necessarily true.  In dredge you are more likely to use it than these decks because of Sun Titan's ability to recur it against spheres.

Sorry for misinterpreting what you meant. You're right, Dredge is a combo deck which may only need 3 mana to cast spells for the whole game, so why not produce all of that mana on one turn rather than over three.

One of the things I'm most interested in for Champs is what percentage of the field will make their deck decisions because of budgetary concerns. Unfortunately, they would need to poll the room or somehow and we will almost certainly never know. Logically, the rising price of Vintage staples would make money more of a concern for players, but I wish that could be confirmed or disproven.

[Methuselahn]

If I were going, I'd probably assume that a third or so of the decks in the Vintage Champs will not be optimal, tuned, vintage staples.  Perhaps expect that pilots who are mostly interested in Legacy to play Vintage, because why wouldn't you?  It's right there.  That's not to say they'll be noobs and bad players, rather, just handicapped because of the nature of sanctioned Eternal.  I'd also assume that after half of the rounds are done, ~75% of the top half of standings will be legitimate Vintage worthy decks.

So, do you alter your sideboarding strategies to compensate for more underpowered decks?  No.  You want to build your deck and sideboard as if this was an unlimited proxy event because the hardest matchups, the matchups that matter, will be in the last 3-4 rounds of the event.  And these decks will be fully optimized.

So, your gauntlet is the myriad of tuned decks you find on this website.  It's a poor strategy to prepare (read: change your sideboard) for tier 1.5+ decks.  You just gotta fight your way through to the cream of the crop.

Also, don't worry about breakout decks, you can't prepare for an unknown, except to realize your deck's strengths and weaknesses, then compensate where necessary with sideboard options.

tldr: don't change strategies because proxies are banned or because of budget concerns.