[Free Podcast] So Many Insane Plays Podcast Episode 45: Magic Origins

[CHA1N5]

http://www.eternalcentral.com/so-many-insane-plays-podcast-episode-45-magic-origins/

Kevin Cron and Steve Menendian review their Dragons of Tarkir report card, and then analyze Magic Origins for Vintage.

Podcast (somanyinsaneplays): Download (Duration: 3:17:26 — 94.7MB)

0:01:00: Dragons of Tarkir Report Card
0:05:20: Mechanics
0:20:53: Hallowed Moonlight
0:28:11: Relic Seeker
0:34:02: Vryn Wingmare
0:37:26: Artificer’s Epiphany
0:56:25: Day’s Undoing
1:16:07: Displacement Wave
1:21:00: Harbinger of the Tides
1:27:09: Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy//Jace, Telepath Unbound
1:35:05: Dark Petition
1:38:26: Demonic Pact
1:45:25: Liliana, Heretical Healer//Liliana, Defiant Necromancer
2:04:04: Abbot of Keral Keep
2:06:51: Ghirapur Æther Grid
2:18:09: Magmatic Insight
2:24:26: Managorger Hydra
2:40:60: Hangarback Walker
3:04:15: Orbs of Warding
Total runtime: 3:17:26

Contact us at @ManyInsanePlays on Twitter or e-mail us at SoManyInsanePlaysPodcast@gmail.com.

[MaximumCDawg]

Hooray, now I get to comment!

1: Dragons of Tarkir Report Card

As much as I am loathe to admit it, Dragonlord Ojutai has many cheerleaders that are seeing some success with it as an evasive creature that generates enough advantage to protect itself as it tries to close out the game.  Did this critter pop up on your radar at all?

2: Artificer’s Epiphany

I was kind of surprised that you guys didn't spend more time discussing whether instant speed makes the difference between unplayable and playable.  I mean, at it's best, this card is instant speed Divination, and Divination is not playable.  Ditto Mulldrifter.  So the real question is: does instant speed make a formerly unplayable card good enough?

And even then, there's a very close analog to this card that is also unplayable: Catalog.  Is making Catalog not force you to discard 80% of the time enough to make that card playable?

3: Liliana, Heretical Healer//Liliana, Defiant Necromancer

I felt a little lost in the weeds here.  Yes, you can construct scenarios where a recursion engine is useful, but we have lots of cards like that that see no play.  When Lily hits, she's a 2/3 lifelink.  If life goes according to plan she gets better, but I really never heard you explain why you think people might actually remove other slots from their deck to put this in.  She doesn't accomplish anything unique and, as you pointed out, requires lots of support to function.  If she sacrificed creatures on her own, then you could talk about getting a 2/2 zombie AND an ETB trigger from an existing creature when you cast her, which would be interesting. 

But as it is, isn't Lily just a bad card that needs you to play with other sort-of bad cards to do anything?


Other than that, one or both of you said everything I was thinking and answered all my questions about the cards.  Good show, and I'm excited to see someone finally break Leyline of Anticipation in the format.

[Chubby Rain]

Not a mention of Dragonlord Ojutai and Dragonlord Dromoka, which both had 4 top 8's each according to TCDecks?

And you guys are already wrong about Jace...

[MaximumCDawg]

Jace is so frigg'n hard to get a handle on.  Why is he doing well, when Bob is doing bad?  I'm reading the thread and I still don't get it.  Was Merfolk Looter really that close to playable that it just takes one little modification and it becomes good?

[fsecco]

Jace is so frigg'n hard to get a handle on.  Why is he doing well, when Bob is doing bad?  I'm reading the thread and I still don't get it.  Was Merfolk Looter really that close to playable that it just takes one little modification and it becomes good?

If Merfolk Looter had "Threshold - sac: you may play target instant or sorcery from graveyard" yeah, it would probably be good.

Yeah, you guys missed a couple cards from Fate that actually got played... now, Magic Origins is a set that's very hard to evaluate. There are so many cards that warrant some hard thinking. The planeswalkers are complete mysteries, simply because they're brand new effects. They're way hard to evaluate on a vacuum. Jace seems better than it seemed.

Now, I think there could be something to say about Liliana + Skullclamp. You mentioned sac effects and forgot about the Clamp. I have no idea how good a BUG or a 5c Humans deck would look like if it packer Lili and Clamp, but maybe that could work?

[Chubby Rain]

Jace is so frigg'n hard to get a handle on.  Why is he doing well, when Bob is doing bad?  I'm reading the thread and I still don't get it.  Was Merfolk Looter really that close to playable that it just takes one little modification and it becomes good?

Yeah, that thread is a bit of a mess. Comparisons to previous cards are in my opinion the lowest tier of card evaluation. With this Jace, I've heard everything from Merfolk Looter, Snapcaster Mage, Yawgmoth's Will, Dack Fayden, Dark Confidant, Jace TMS, and Regrowth. At the end though, the actual effect of the card "Jace" has been completely obfuscated by preconceived notions attached to the cards in question. This card and Merfolk Looter are completely different cards. This card and Snapcaster Mage are completely different. I don't want to drop Tiago on turn 1. I don't want a one-dimensional Looter without additional utility. Dark Confidant generates raw card advantage at the cost of valuable life points (new deck name: "Minus 8" :p) - this Jace generates card selection and mana (via Delve) in the early game before giving you 1-2 "flashbacks" after he flips. Obviously, these are functionally very different. Yes, there are similarities but a card is defined as much by the differences.

The next tier up is the "card-breakdown" in which you go line-by-line through the text analysing the abilities and attributes. The problem with this is that each line has varying degrees of relevance. "Jace flipping after a loot is not optional and therefore you don't have control over what card does." Yes, that is what the card says. In testing that scenario came up rarely. In tournament play with the Gifts deck, it didn't come up at all. It's a theoretical negative that is rarely relevant. "Jace dies to spot removal". Yeah, that's true and annoying but welcome to the vast majority of creatures in existence. Follow up questions need to be asked: "how often does this happen?" "how bad is it for me when it does happen?" "how powerful is Jace's impact when he sticks around?" In my experience the answers have been "a non-negligible percentage of the time" (maybe 20%, obviously matchup dependent), "I've lost a two drop, but my opponent might have used the Pyroblast on my Gifts or the Bolt on my Mentor", and "deceptively good to game-ending." In any case, the depth of analysis that is typically involved in the "card-breakdown" is hardly exhaustive and generally leaves the same biases as the "comparisons" - you tend to color the results in accordance with your preconceptions, i.e. "Jace's +1 is really bad and rarely has an impact on the game"; "You are never going to ultimate Jace"; rather than "the card is basically there for the looting and flashback abilities, the other abilities have fringe applications but are hardly deterrents from running the card/instead, they are positives as they convey additional utility when relevant."

So that leaves us at the upper tiers of card evaluation which are, in order, "play-testing", "tournament experience", and "tournament results". While these are certainly not perfect and are prone to biases and shoddy methodology (i.e. I'm gonna cram Jace into so random deck; oh, that didn't go so well...), the results of these are generally much better than those derived from the lower tiers. If you go to the Jace thread, many of the detractors cite "evidence" from the lower tiers while many of the proponents (Ok, mostly me) cite play experience and tournament results. And again, I could be wrong, falling victim to "I love Standard Blue Mythic" syndrome along with the variance of "small sample size". But then follow up posts that say "Out of curiosity I did some testing with Matt's list posted above, and while I think the list could use some tuning (Vault/Key but no Vampiric, Balance maindeck, etc) I found Baby Jace performs quite well" provide validation and suggest that bias is not affecting the results.

Hmm, didn't mean to type that much. Oh well...

Back on point, now that I obviously have more time to express my thoughts,

1) The reason I bring up the Dragonlord Duo is that these set reviews tend to be the only actual reviews of new sets for Vintage (which I think is awesome that you both put them out) and reach a wide audience. It would be good to call attention to all cards performing well from the new set, whether they initially flew under the radar.

2) Obviously, I have a different opinion of Jace, though it did sound like Steve was trying to find an application for Mr. Prodigy and was hesitant to go with "zero". Ah well, it will be interesting to see where we are at for the Origins report card.

[CHA1N5]

I think our quality dipped a little bit due to the quantity of material, here.  Steve and I recorded for nearly 8 hours for this episode.  It became episodes 44 and 45, with a fair bit left on the cutting room floor.

Yes, the Dragonlords should have been in our report card.  It's been so long, I simply forgot.

As we said during the show: there are several Origins cards with more tactical and strategic complexity than we've ever seen before.  We were certain we'd be wrong about a few.

[MaximumCDawg]

Chubby, I think you're right, but in some cases hindsight lets us really pinpoint why a card is good.  Case in point: Big Daddy Jace.  He was theorycrafted a lot, and then when people got results showing he was busted, you could understand why pretty easily.  4 mana for a card that can be a card advantage engine that gets better with shuffle effects, removal, a way to lock the board when you're ahead, AND a win condition, all in one card?  That kind of versatility makes sense.

With baby Jace, though, I still don't really see why he's in decks he is in.  I mean, I get that he's a turn 1 play that will give you incremental advantage as the game continues unless he is answered, which is why I put him into the "Dark Confidant" box, but I don't understand why that is enough to put him where cards that do something similar also go.  Maybe it's just that the quasi-tutor aspect of the repeated regrow effect is just good enough to push him over the edge?  I dunno.  Perhaps he's good when you're ahead (draw moar cards) and good when you're behind (regrow the removal); good early (draw moar cards) and good late (regrow da bomb); etc.  Maybe his power does not come from being a Swiss Army knife, like his daddy, but from just plain being a good play no matter when you see him and when you play him.

[nedleeds]

Good cast, in the war over Hangerback Walker you missed an obvious one in that he is (like Metamorph) a Bridge from Below Bomber. Only for 0. Which isn't trivial. He can also be grabbed by Trinket Mage for what it's worth.

[Smmenen]

I was aware of the presence of the two aforementioned Dragon's in Vintage Top 8s, but it slipped my mind during our report card segment, and I suspect Kevin missed it because we didn't review them in our Dragons set review (I assume?).  I agree that accuracy is important, so we will work to try to avoid mistakes like that in the future.  In our next episode, I will try to remember to make a correction. 

I'm glad that folks credit the discussion, not simply the predictions.  When I predict 0 copies in Top 8s, that doesn't mean that I don't think a card is playable.  It may simply reflect my belief about whether players will try it.  There are many cards that I would deem playable in Vintage in the abstract that don't actually show up in Top 8s. 

[msg67183]

Very good Podcast gents. I will say that with Merrow Reejerey in play you can cast a Harbinger of the Tides, tap a creature of there's and bounce it with it's ETB ability. That seems very strong for Merfolk decks.

One thing that wasn't brought up about Demonic Pact was giving it to your opponent once you ha e used the first three modes of it.

Having played against "Baby Jace" I will say it is deffinietly a house and a force to be reckoned with. A friend of mine won a local event last weekend and then top 4d am event the next day with the same list, sporting 4X Baby Jace.

[Chubby Rain]

I was aware of the presence of the two aforementioned Dragon's in Vintage Top 8s, but it slipped my mind during our report card segment, and I suspect Kevin missed it because we didn't review them in our Dragons set review (I assume?).  I agree that accuracy is important, so we will work to try to avoid mistakes like that in the future.  In our next episode, I will try to remember to make a correction. 

I'm glad that folks credit the discussion, not simply the predictions.  When I predict 0 copies in Top 8s, that doesn't mean that I don't think a card is playable.  It may simply reflect my belief about whether players will try it.  There are many cards that I would deem playable in Vintage in the abstract that don't actually show up in Top 8s. 

I see...these set reviews are definitely an ambitious undertaking and I'm sure a ton of work goes into them. It's definitely understandable how a few results could fall through the cracks and this set was far from a metagame changer (compared to KTK). The discussions are definitely more insightful than the predictions, IMO. Vintage is unique in that it has the largest card pool combined with the smallest player base. Whether or not a card sees a Top 8 often depends on the efforts of a small number of people - the Dragonlords may not have had any results if Brian Kelly hadn't seen their potential and decided to jam them. I think this one of the best attributes of Vintage, though. As for Jace, that is my own personal fight I'm waging - no offense or criticism intended.

Keep up the good work, Kevin and Steve.

[Islandswamp]

When I tell people how much I like these podcasts, I always mention that I have been listening to SMIP longer than I have been playing Vintage.

I honestly feel like I was more prepared than I otherwise would have been from the things I picked up from the show.

I'm still working my way through it, as I am usually really busy. I'm at the part Where you're discussing Day's Undoing. I faced a day's undoing belcher deck on mtgo, and although I won, it was rough having to constantly worry about the card and digging for counters. I lost one of the games, and it was off the back of leyline and Day's Undoing.

[CHA1N5]

Thank you, everyone, for the kind words; and for being kind when pointing out errors and omissions 

[brianpk80]

Thank you, everyone, for the kind words; and for being kind when pointing out errors and omissions  

I'm halfway through the podcast and enjoying it so far.  Dragons of Tarkir was an otherwise uneventful set for Vintage, after the game changers in Khans and Fate Reforged.  The best cards in the Dragons set are the two Dragonlords Dromoka and Ojutai themselves, along with their sister Kolaghan's Command, followed by Virulent Plague, Narset, Rending Volley, and possibly Collected Company as part of some Noble Fish-like resurgence in the future.  Since it was so long ago and less impactful than the prior sets, it's understandable omissions were made in the report card.  

Baby Jace is definitely playable, but I wasn't even thinking of running him until Lance Ballaester and Matt Murray shared their testing results.  I've seen a lot more of him in action and he's really good--extremely annoying on the other side of the table because he gives an opponent so many options.  I would prefer if they had none.    The better the player, the more dangerous he becomes.  

-B

Edit: Finished the podcast this morning.  I enjoyed it; thank you for providing such entertaining content.  Kevin, your offhand knowledge of cards that exist when Stephen asks for a comparison is encyclopedic!

I think Hangarback Walker may be a little more powerful than given credit, but that remains to be seen.  Another thing that crossed my mind when discussing Liliana was that it seems her sacrifice clause can be met by Evoking an Ingot Chewer, flipping her, activating the +2 and then resurrecting the full bodied Chewer the following turn, making it a 4 mana "4 for 2" in addition to whatever value we assign to the mutual forced discard.  I have hard time seeing an artifact based deck recover from that kind of blowout. 

[MTGFan]

Great work once again. Alongside Top Level Podcast with Chapin&Flores this has to be the best Magic-related podcast.

[MaximumCDawg]

I think Hangarback Walker may be a little more powerful than given credit, but that remains to be seen. 

Is it?  It feels like a Chasm Skulker that can come into play with counters immediately if you have Mi$hra's Work$hop mana sitting around.  Is that really good enough?  I was kinda with Steve all the way on his analysis if this bugger.

[msg67183]

It (Hanagerback Walker) already won two events at Gencon. Just sayin.

[Chubby Rain]

Hangarback Walker is a better version of Darksteel Juggernaut - it's a resilient threat that is hard for many decks to remove. It's also a great strategy against decks siding in Pulverize.