Dredge 101 - A Video Primer

This may be a more theory based argument but in my opinion and experience the point of casting Cabal therapy is to explore 2 possible lines of play which have varying priority depending on the deck you are playing against. 1 is to prevent your opponent from interacting with you. 2 is to try and prevent your opponent from winning the game. Incidental results are bridge from below triggers and information gained even if they counter it. Against different decks and at different junctions during the game the priority one of those two lines becomes either more obvious or moves into a murkier line of play. When a Cabal therapy resolves you now have the opportunity to take either of those lines. Naming misstep to ensure a follow up Cabal therapy when there are 3 cards in hand may in fact ensure a follow up Cabal therapy. But when your opponent shows you FoW, blue card, tinker then misstep is the wrong choice and FoW was the correct choice. Both cards interact with you, both cards protect tinker, and both cards counter Cabal therapy. The value judgement has to be made on whether or not misstep or force is more important to the rest of the game and the lines you may take later on. Is it more or less likely that he has misstep or force+blue card in his hand? That's a statistics question that will either be true or false arbitrarily in any given game. Whether or not the opponent actually has the card you are naming, in my opinion, is less relevant than why you are naming that card.

I dislike hypothetical match scenarios for the most part as they don't usually have enough information available to make an informed decision or they end up being purposely designed to favor a particular card or line of play. We can create all kinds of scenarios that support our point of views but all that does is reinforce what we already believe to be true instead of testing those beliefs. If we test these ideas then we can begin to see if the lines of play we are taking are correct or open us to possible weaknesses.