Battle of the Expansion Sets III - Results & Reports

[Legend]

As I have alluded to, I plan to make only a handful or less of changes for Battle of the Expansion Sets IV later this year. I'll be posting them here:


WEATHERLIGHT:

-4 Aura of Silence, -4 Ophidian, +4 Serenity, +4 Avizoa

Serenity's potential game-swinging effect will give Weatherlight a serious chance against some of the top decks such as Mirrodin, Antiquities, and Exodus. In contrast, Ophidian has proven virtually worthless in this deck - it contributes nothing while clogging up the three mana slot. Avizoa at least adds another flyer to the attack with a marginal ability that might prove useful in a damage race every now and then.


NEMESIS: (New Deck)

4 Saproling Burst
4 Blastoderm
4 Wild Mammoth
4 Stampede Driver
4 Skyshroud Ridgeback
4 Mogg Alarm
4 Arc Mage
4 Mogg Toady
4 Seal of Fire
12 Mountain
12 Forest

Nemesis is one of those sets that doesn't have one deck choice that clearly stands out above the rest. Nemesis is also one of the weakest sets in the tournament. So time to try something new, a R/G beatdown deck.


THE DARK:

-4 Goblin Digging Team, -4 Goblins of the Flarg, -1 Brothers of Fire, +4 Maze of Ith, +4 Fire Drake, +1 Mountain

As I note in the post below, I've finally scrapped any objection to the slow, yet useful Maze of Ith.  This should be at least a slight improvement for arguably the worst deck in the field.  Besides, The Dark has nothing to lose anyway.


ANTIQUITIES:


-4 Jalum Tome, +4 Primal Clay

Jalum Tome has proven to be surprisingly marginal over the course of the first three tournaments, and in its place, Primal Clay returns from a one tournament absence after turning in solid work in the second tournament.


JUDGMENT: (New Deck)

3 Glory
4 Phantom Centaur
4 Erhnam Djinn
4 Anurid Brushhopper
4 Elephant Guide
4 Ray of Revelation
4 Phantom Nomad
4 Harvester Druid
4 Ironshell Beetle
12 Plains
13 Forest

After bombing out of the first three tournaments, its time for Judgment to change. While the Wake/Crush deck seemed like it should have done better, it just never came together and proved unwieldy. I'll try a more straightforward beatdown deck for next time.


INVASION:

-1 Void, +1 Keldon Necropolis

Invasion needs another land, as it has plenty to do with its mana in the mid and late-games and can't afford to stall on three or four lands as it did a couple of times in the last tournament. The Necropolis is the ideal choice here, not only upping the mana count, but also adding another source of damage to the mix. Four Voids were a bit too much, but three seems right, and opens the way for the return of Necropolis after a one tournament absence, having appeared in the first two tournaments as part of Invasion's original R/G deck.

[Alfred]

In the dark, I think that you should replace the brothers of fire with maze of ith. It's basically an artifact that costs your land drop, and has a VERY useful effect. With four, you have a late game, which allows you to stall for infernos and eternal flames, which take a while to get going.


EDIT: WOW, the dark must be bad, having to rely on fire drake! It sort of fits the game plan though, having an evasion creature along with mazes makes sense. With the addition of 4 mazes and 2 mountains, the dark will have 30 lands (26 mana producers). With this many lands, sisters of the flame becomes very useless late game. I would go with 3x barl's cage and 3x Fire Drake. Barl's cage would go along with the theme of holding off your opponent's creatures until you can get the dark's big 3 into action: Ball lightning, Inferno and eternal flame. Perhaps Sorrow's Path as insurance? (just kidding)

Btw, the new judgement list looks MUCH better than the old one, going for straight beatdown is probably the best idea, and it gives you some of the best creatures in the whole game i.e. Anurid Brushopper, Phantom Cenataur and Erhnam Djinn. IMO I would find a way to squeeze in Genesis somehow, even 2x.

[Legend]

OK, you got me.  I've resisted the temptation of Maze of Ith for awhile, but I'm finally willing to make that switch. Despite the concerns I've voiced in the past about missing a land drop, I agree with you that its time for a change. After all, the Dark can't get any worse, and Maze should at least be somewhat of an improvement.

[Alfred]

My proposed Ice age deck:

4x Abyssal Specter
4x Dark Banishing
4x Dark ritual
3x Demonic consultation
3x Foul familiar
4x Icequake
4x Stone Rain
4x Knight of Stromgald
2x Soul Burn
4x Necropotence
4x Sulferous Springs
3x Mountain
17x Swamps

It stays in keeping with the land destruction element (possible turn 1 land destruction) that was in the old version, except with the brokenness of necropotence, demonic consultation and dark ritual added. This would be extra nasty, as a functioning necropotence would allow for almost complete board control, ending with a substantial soul burn or critter hoard. Having necropotence and dark ritual can also allow you to mulligan more aggresively.

[Legend]

I also want a Necrodeck for next time, but here are my proposed lists:


4 Icy Manipulator
4 Icequake
4 Stone Rain

4 Abyssal Specter
4 Knight of Stromgald

4 Soul Burn
3 Lava Burst

4 Necropotence
3 Demonic Consultation

4 Dark Ritual

4 Sulfurous Springs
4 Mountain
14 Swamp



I agree with you that an Ice Age B/R Necrodeck is a reasonable consideration. However, I prefer Icy Manipulator over Dark Banishing, as both can keep creatures under control, but Icy adds to the land destruction element. I also don't like any fewer than the full four Soul Burns, because this deck needs a reliable way to gain some life (plus Soul Burn fills both removal & finishing
needs as well).

Granted, Soul Burn is not the most mana efficient spell, but its Ice Age's most versatile way to gain life. As for Lava Burst versus Incinerate, I have Lava Burst in this list, but it is a tough call. Lava Burst can finish off games that Incinerate would not have been able to, but Incinerate is far more efficient in the early game. This one could go either way. Two other questions are the correct amount of lands, and the correct black mana to red mana ratio. I've got 22 lands in this build, but cutting one land for a fourth Lava Burst (or Incinerate) could be a possibility. I'd like to be able to get away with only 3 Mountains, but with Stone Rains plus 3 or 4  burn spells, 4 might be necessary to reliably cast those red cards. Again, we'll see.



Another possibility is just a straight Mono-Black aggro deck, which I might actually favor over B/R land destruction, since even the slight splash of red detracts from the deck's consistency and leads to some bad hands.


4 Soul Burn
4 Dark Banishing
4 Necropotence
4 Demonic Consultation

4 Abyssal Specter
4 Foul Familiar
4 Knight of Stromgald

4 Soldevi Simulacrum
3 Zuran Orb

4 Dark Ritual
21 Swamp


PROS: Very consistent with only one color and 4 Consults to glue the deck together. The Simulacrums are a strange choice, but Ice Age does lack sizable threats and the Simulacrum can be a pretty nasty creature. Plus, if paying the upkeep becomes problematic, its fine to just let it die since Necro will keep the cards flowing anyway. Also, the other creatures are decent, and the deck has a decent amount of lifegain to back up Necro (with no Mountains or Sulfurous Springs messing up Soul Burn).

CONS: No disruption. A major problem against some decks, but thats what happens when the deck becomes focused solely on creatures and removal. Also, intuitively it seems as though there are several other aggro decks out there that will have this deck outgunned and overmatched despite the card advantage of Necro.

[Alfred]

I like the first list quite a bit. I think you have too many mountains though, 8 red sources for 8 spells with only one red in their CC isn't that great an idea. I would go down to 7 like in my list. The reason that I like the first list over the second, is that it plays more like a control deck, and can abuse necro more efficiently. With necro out, you can have almost complete board control, and tempo advantage. Another reason not to run the second list is that without necro, most other aggro decks do a better job of being aggro.

With the first list, a strong LD start can flat out beat almost any deck in the format, and a strong necro start can do the same thing. Personally, I think that lava burst should be replaced with incinerate. I can see this deck having problem with early creatures, as most of the other removal comes online at around turn 4 or 5, and as we all know, this may be too late to deal with some decks.

[Legend]

OK, here's the list for the next tournament:


4 Necropotence
3 Demonic Consultation

3 Icy Manipulator
4 Icequake
4 Stone Rain

4 Soul Burn
4 Incinerate

4 Abyssal Specter
4 Knight of Stromgald

4 Dark Ritual

4 Sulfurous Springs
3 Mountain
15 Swamp


EDIT: -1 Icy Manipulator, +1 Swamp

[P_f]

It just feels wrong if Ice Age loses 3 times in a row in its first round.

I definitely like the full complement of soul burn+necropotence but it might be necessary to run the ful 4 consult to maximize your chance to put out an early necro.

I liked zuran orb from your previous list and I think pox may be worth a second look. Also flow of maggot is pretty much unblockable and with soul kiss, it may as well kill your opponent very fast in a field with little burn

[Legend]

Ice Age went the full five games in all three of its losses, and in two of those matches it held a 2-1 lead before being victimized by dramatic comebacks. So clearly there has been some bad luck that has gone into the drought thus far - in fact Ice Age has simply been the most snakebitten set in the field. But eventually a close match will go its way, & Ice Age will get on the board with a win, or a few wins.

However, looking at the field, Ice Age is not one of the elite sets. Ice Age can field a good deck, but when compared to Mirrodin, Tempest, Apocalypse, & a few others, Ice Age is not on the same level. Even with that stated, though, I feel that this Necro/Land Destruction deck is by far its strongest incarnation, with Necroburn, R/G Land Destruction, and R/G Beatdown having already been tried. Each time Ice Age has come up just short, but this new deck gives Ice Age its best ever chance to do some damage, and puts Ice Age on a higher level than it has ever been.  

Finally, Pox is not worth even a first look. Likewise for Flow of Maggots & Soul Kiss. Zuran Orb, on the other hand, is useful, but there's no more room in this list. The number of Consults (3 or 4) is also debatable, but I'll keep it at 3 for the next tournament as it stands, in the above list.

[Alfred]

First off, legend, the list looks great. I agree that ice age has been very unlucky in tournaments past, and though it has a good cardpool it isn't on par with some of the other set you mentioned. On the other hand, with this new decklist, ice age's perfect draw will trump most other decks perfect draws. Land destruction combined with necropotence can keep the opponent low on lands the entire game, which can be devestating against control and mid-game agressive decks. I could forsee this deck having good games against good decks such as tempest, antiquities and possibly apocalypse due to a concentration on land destruction elements and a non-creature win condition like soul burn.

One suggestion on the deck:

-1 icy manipulator
+1 swamp

[Legend]

Yeah, I agree, Ice Age could use one more Swamp. The test draws I tried revealed that the deck was just a bit mana light, and you correctly see the same thing. I'll edit the change in.

Also, there are a couple of other remaining minor issues I'd like to resolve. Let me know if you have any thoughts on the following:


1) MERCADIAN MASQUES - 4 Story Circle, 3 Reverent Mantra, -OR-
                                        4 Reverent Mantra, 3 Story Circle

Masques had 3 Story Circles in the first two tournaments, but I went up to 4 for the last tournament. The deck was doing fine with 3, but I wanted to try out 4 since it can be a major hoser against certain decks. On the other hand, you usually don't want to draw more than one and it is very hit or miss - its often either great or not all that effective. Throw in the fact that Reverent Mantra provides a solid effect that can sometimes be very good, and the case to go back to 4 Mantras is pretty decent. Right now I'm leaning towards going back down to 3 Story Circles.


2) VISIONS

The issue here is simply the deck choice. The current list has a lot of options and is versatile, but it is very clunky and I doubt whether having a "toolbox" of options at its disposal will really be able to carry it to a possible upset of an upper tier opponent. Visions actually had its best showing with Mono Black in the second tournament, and despite a bad showing in the first tournament, it seems that UG is also an option.


3) ALLIANCES

Alliances has been a respectable deck that has actually done some damage, but I just wonder if it can be improved in anyway. Phyrexian War Beast is a card that I like, but it is not that hard to kill and the drawback is significant. There are more artifacts than previously in the format (mostly due to Mirrodin block, especially with Fifth Dawn coming), but Primitive Justice is also questionable. Elvish Ranger seems like a possibility. Another possiblity that I have always liked is UW Counterpost, but it is very slow & very awkward, plus it pretty much requires the use of the very poor Arcane Denial.


4) URZA'S SAGA

This has been a problem deck ever since the beginning. After the failures of an Academy deck in the first two tournaments, I went to Mono Black last time, and this did lead to a win. But Saga looked very shaky in beating Prophecy in a close match, then got beaten by Legions. I'm still not convinced by Mono Black, as it can be overpowered by a quick creature rush. Playing Academy continues to be tempting (perhaps with Wildfire) but the problem remains the same: there aren't that many good artifacts to support a deck such as that.

[Alfred]

Maybe you should just go for a mono-green list:

3x Creeping mold
4x Giant caterpillar
4x Stampeding wildebeasts
4x Warthog
4x Uktabi Orangutan
4x Panther warrior
4x Quirion Ranger
4x River Boa
3x Snake Basket
2x Quirion Druid
20x Forest
4x Quicksand

Visions has some pretty damn good green creatures if you ask me. There are hidden synergies see if you can find them (hint: look at stampeding wildebeasts).

Here's a different list:

4x Suq'ata Lancer
4x Nekrataal
4x Mob Mentality
4x Keeper of Kookus
4x Fireblast
4x Fallen askari
4x Wake of Vultures
4x Tar pit Warrior
3x Song of Blood
3x Desolation
10x Mountain
9x Swamp
3x Undiscovered Paradise

That SEEMS pretty fast, but I'm not sure it's as solid as the green list. Desolation looks like some really good disruption to lay down after a beefy creature, and as we all know, fireblast is dope.

In regards to the alliances thing, counterpost would be a bad idea. On the other hand, incorporating kjedoran outpost into another deck would be really good, perhaps even an agressive deck.

As for urzas saga, I would find a way to fit looming shade in there. That creature is just nuts with enough black mana.

Not much to say about these, except they may be better alternatives to the current lists. Just throwing some ideas out there.

[Legend]

I've decided to go with 4 Mantras & 3 Story Circles for Masques. But for now, there aren't going to be any changes for the other sets under review. Nothing I've seen here & nothing I've thought of jumps off the page at me, so I'm going to leave these sets alone for the time being. I'm pretty busy right now, which won't be the case in a couple of weeks, so once I get some time, I'll revisit these lists. If I do decide to make any changes, I'll try to post them as soon as possible. I'll be back later this month. That's all for now.

[Legend]

After considering the matter, I haven't found any superior alternatives for Alliances & Urza's Saga, so these two are here to stay - at least until I find something better. As for Visions, I'm switching to this:


4 Creeping Mold
4 Stampeeding Wildebeests
4 Uktabi Orangutan
4 River Boa
4 Quirion Ranger
4 Rainbow Efreet
4 Cloud Elemental
4 Man-o'-War
4 Pygmy Hippo
11 Island
13 Forest

[Alfred]

Wouldn't rainbow efreet be better than cloud elemental? It's a faster clock, a good blocker and has an ability that makes it difficult to remove.

[Lyhrrus]

However, Darksteel took the first step towards taking control of the game with a third turn Flamebreak, taking out both the Frogmite and the Ornithopter

In the Darksteel vs. Mirroden match, game 5, I don't see how Flamebreak gets rid of Ornithopter.   Probably doesn't make too much of a difference in the outcome, but just maybe?  Other than that, definitely enjoyed the fine work that you've done.

[Legend]

@Lyhrrus

Thanks. Clearly, there was an error in either the game report or the game itself, too late now to know which. However, it made no difference in the outcome, as Mirrodin won that exciting game 5 anyway.

@Alfred

Actually, I intended to put Rainbow Efreet in the list, but didn't get a chance to edit it in earlier before I had to leave for a couple of hours. However, not for Cloud Elemental. Instead, I decided while I was out to cut the Warthogs to make room for the Rainbow Efreets. Really, the only reason the Warthogs were in to begin with was because they are green (need a certain amount of green creatures for the Wildebeests) but with River Boa, Quirion Ranger, Pygmy Hippo, and Uktabi Orangutan, that won't be a problem. I want the Efreets moreso for their flying rather than the phase out ability, but its obviously a nice feature. The other consideration is that with twelve creatures already in the three mana slot, Warthog had to be the odd card out because sixteen would be just too much of a glut in a deck that already has a less than ideal mana curve. But cutting Cloud Elemental would definitely be a mistake, as its actually one of the better cards in a deck thats overall pretty weak.

[Legend]

Here's the new PROPHECY deck...

Citadel of Pain finally joins the team, after a long and undeserved stay on the sidelines. Likewise, the equally long overdue addition of blue adds the ability to win through the air for previously ground-bound Prophecy. With a Citadel in play, the Brawlers and Ribbon Snakes will get pretty nasty, and Prophecy has no shortage of methods for keeping its own lands constantly tapped. Meanwhile, the hard-hitting Scoria Cats and Troublesome Spirits are just about always bad new for opponents, Citadel or no Citadel. But things will get downright intolerable with a Citadel or two in play. Idol, of course, remains as the reliable and effective centerpiece. This cruel little deck actually seems capable of pulling off a surprise if it gets the right matchup, and in any event, its certainly the best Prophecy has ever looked.


4 Scoria Cat
4 Citadel of Pain
4 Rhystic Lightning
4 Veteran Brawlers
4 Branded Brawlers
4 Troublesome Spirit
4 Ribbon Snake
4 Spiketail Hatchling
4 Chimeric Idol
12 Island
12 Mountain




...the new URZA'S SAGA deck...

There was just no way I was going to let Saga go back into competition with a shaky Mono-Black setup again. Lurking Evil and the gang were not going to get the job done. Although Saga did get off the hook with its first ever match win last time out behind Mono-Black, it was nevertheless clear that this was a strictly temporary setup loaded with weaknesses and that Saga could only reclaim its place among the upper class with a revamped Academy build.

The problems for this powerful set were manifest in the first two tournaments, as Saga's Mono-Blue Academy deck suffered two consecutive first round upset losses.  The deck just wasn't as good as it could be, the proper design remained elusive, and it became clear that any Academy design could never be as dominant as the average person would expect it to be, due to the limited card pool. Throw in some unbelievably bad luck, and Saga fell short of expectations. But now, Academy returns, new and improved, and is here to stay for the long term. This deck lacks some of the great support cards that made Academy a truly unfair card in Extended, Block, and Type I, but this is still a formidable deck nonetheless. Saga should at least match its performance from last time (barring an unfortunate first round pairing with a few of the notably hate-loaded second division decks), but even if not, Saga will still pick up more wins over the course of the next few tournaments than it has previously, and will definitely take its place among the Division I decks next time out. Just beware the hate.


4 Time Spiral
3 Karn, Silver Golem
4 Phyrexian Processor
4 Smokestack
4 Worn Powerstone
4 Pit Trap
4 Thran Turbine
4 Voltaic Key
4 Claws of Gix
4 Tolarian Academy
4 Blasted Landscape
17 Island



...and big changes to ALLIANCES...

-3 Thawing Glaciers, -4 Phyrexian War Beast,
+1 Mountain, +2 Primitive Justice, +4 Elvish Ranger

Leading to this updated list:

4 Balduvian Horde
4 Pillage
4 Primitive Justice
4 Guerilla Tactics
4 Death Spark
4 Pyrokinesis
4 Deadly Insect
4 Yavimaya Ants
4 Elvish Ranger
11 Forest
13 Mountain

Considering that Alliances is not one of the elite in this format, it has done well to compile a respectable 2-3 record with solid outings in all three tournaments, advancing to the second round the first two times out, and nearly repeating the feat in the third tournament. But as the format continues to change and the overall quality of competition improves each time out, Alliances must also evolve.

Alliances, as a Division II deck, has as possible first round competition heavy artifact powerhouses Antiquities, Mirrodin, Urza's Saga and to a lesser extent, Darksteel. Further, if Mirrodin Block finishes up with another strong set in Fifth Dawn (which would enter the field as a Division I deck and would in all likelihood be heavily reliant on artifacts), that would make five out of a possible sixteen first round opponents for Alliances that either rely heavily on artifacts or are almost entirely comprised of artifacts. Plus, there are also a few scattered targets elsewhere amongst both Division I and Division II decks. But this change is being made with four or five decks in mind. Other previously more fragile sets have already beefed themselves up with some enchantment and/or artifact hate (i.e. Weatherlight with Serenity, Visions with Uktabi Orangutan & Creeping Mold, Judgment with Ray of Revelation) or land destruction (Ice Age). Alliances now needs to follow along in threatening the top decks and shaking up the field.

By increasing to four Primitive Justice, Alliances does not hurt itself at all against decks with no artifacts (otherwise useless Justices can be tossed to Pyrokinesis or even to Balduvian Horde if played right) - yet turns what would have otherwise been difficult matchups against a few top decks into favorable, and in a couple of cases, lopsided matchups. If Alliances gets paired against one of these elite artifact decks in the first round, it has an excellent chance of advancing - and if not, Alliances has sufficient ways to put its Primitive Justices to use anyway. This is simply a case of nothing to lose, much to gain - despite the fact that most decks in the field do not feature any significant number of artifacts. But those that do - beware, as Alliances now has a deadly package of 4 Primitive Justice and 4 Pillage.

Out are the Thawing Glaciers. The Glaciers were effective throughout their tenure and certainly contributed to some Alliances victories, but they are awfully slow and don't really start to impact the game until the later turns. Alliances doesn't end games extraordinarily quickly, but then again it does not hope to dig in for notably long games either. The Glaciers are more of a controlling sort of card, while Alliances is a straightforward attack & remove beatdown deck.  It can benefit by simply scaling down its mana base to just a traditional 24 basic lands with a badly needed 14th Mountain rather than messing around with Glaciers which are not all that useful as Alliances unfolds its strategy from turn three onwards.

Also out are the Phyrexian War Beasts. Although a 3/4 for three mana is a
rather nice bargain, there are just too many ways it can be killed, and having the War Beast die on the third turn is pretty much a disaster. War Beast has not really been a big factor for Alliances; in fact, when Alliances defeated Planeshift in the opening round of the second tournament, one of the elements that allowed Alliances to walk away with the match win was the fact that it didn't draw any War Beasts. There are just too many matchups in which the War Beast cannot be safely cast in the early game, making it a great enough liability to warrant a change for next time. Taking its place is Elvish Ranger. Yes, its extremely easy to kill, but it won't punish Alliances for its death, and it has a great casting cost to power ratio. With Alliances' solid path-clearing ability, the Ranger can get some hits in along with Alliances' other low-toughness green creatures. Plus, that girl Ranger isn't too bad looking at all.



Well, that pretty much concludes this round of updates, as Urza's Saga & Alliances are finally settled, and Prophecy was the last of the decks up for review. Looking ahead, Fifth Dawn comes out in May, and I expect to start Battle of the Expansion Sets IV later that month with the new set bringing the field to the full 32 for the first time. Anyone interested in playing can let me know at that point. Until then, I don't plan to make any more changes or updates, so look for the next tournament in late May or early June. Of course, anyone with a comment or question before then is welcome to post, as I will check here periodically. Also look here for the Fifth Dawn deck, I'll have that up as soon as I get a chance to go over the new set. That's all for now.

[Lyhrrus]

4 Balduvian Horde
4 Pillage
4 Primitive Justice
4 Guerilla Tactics
4 Death Spark
4 Pyrokinesis
4 Deadly Insect
4 Yavimaya Ants
4 Elvish Ranger
11 Forest
13 Mountain

For the above Alliances list, I believe it would be more beneficial to have Elvish Spirit Guides added.  Alliances must play out quickly, getting heavy hitters in fast, suiciding its own hand.  Deadly Insect is far far worse than Gigapede, whose strength lay in being able to be recurred.  Any chump blocker can take him out.  I think having 4 Elvish Spirit Guides would allow for 3rd turn Balduvian Hordes and Yavimaya Ants, which make them a lot scarier.

Suggest: +4 ESG, -4 Deadly Insect[/quote]

[Matt]

No, that would be for the worse. Not only would you get mana-flooded, but you also would lose Insect's ability to stall - no one wants to run a Shivan Wurm or something into a 6/1. Also, with 12 burn spells, it's actually not hard to clear a path for some huge damage.

Think of Insect less as a creature and more as green removal.

[Legend]

Replacing Deadly Insect with Elvish Spirit Guide is a horrendous idea.

Not even a consideration. I am generally very open to suggestions, and I have made use of several particularly good ones that have resulted in changes to certain decks. In fact, I actively encourage suggestions and try to respond promptly to all. But this a bad one. Nevertheless, it is always unproductive to simply dismiss an idea without offering reasons in support of one's position, so I will explain why the proposed swap is a bad idea. You are, however, encouraged to continue offering ideas. If you come up with an improvement that should clearly be made to a particular deck, I'll use it. If a suggested change clearly does not improve a deck (or makes it worse), I won't use it. In order for the tournament to remain as the fun & carefully managed franchise that it is, I can only accept the best of the best suggestions, the ones that result in improvements to the decks.

Accelerating out a Balduvian Horde or a Yavimaya Ants on the third turn are both highly uneconomical plays. If you use a Spirit Guide to pump out a third turn Horde, you have just set up a potential 3-1 card advantage for the opponent. Balduvian Horde is a strong creature because it provides a powerhouse body at a cheap mana cost with the possible loss of only one card (potential 2-1 for opponent). But the deal goes from bargain to bust when potential 2-1 (Horde & random card discarded) becomes potential 3-1 (Horde, random card discarded, AND Elvish Spirit Guide). At 2-1, the deal is outstanding. At 3-1, it crosses into the unacceptable danger zone.

Yavimaya Ants accelerated out with a Spirit Guide are almost as bad a proposition on the third turn as are the Horde pumped out with a Guide.  Why would you want to waste a card in hand on your third turn and then tie up your fourth turn paying the upkeep when you could instead be casting Pillage or Elvish Ranger on your third turn, then on the fourth turn casting either a pair cheap removal spells OR a Balduvian Horde OR Yavimaya Ants with your mana more established? This deck does have three mana spells for a reason. There is no rush to play out the more expensive stuff right away. First hit the opponent with a Pillage, or cast a Ranger, then start throwing out the big stuff. Further, the Ants are not worth casting until you can pay the upkeep at least once. You could potentially (actually it will happen fairly regularly given the mana configuration) have a situation where you have only 1 Forest on the third turn, and you use the Spirit Guide for a second green mana to cast the Ants. Then what? You can't pay the upkeep next turn, & you have lost 2 cards in exchange for 5 damage (possibly not even that - the Ants could be killed by an instant or partially blocked) early in the game. Hardly economical.

Now, as for Deadly Insect on its own merits, this is a pretty easy case to make. The Insect is obviously rather difficult to deal with outside of combat. On the other hand, yes, it does have a low toughness, which makes it vulnerable to any creature in combat, but between Death Spark, Guerilla Tactics, & Pyrokinesis (especially Pyrokinesis), Alliances is quite able to clear a path for the Insect to deliver a bone-crunching hit. Even one hit from an Insect will prove, well, deadly. I could see the Insect offering far less of a value in a deck such as Stronghold that lacks removal, because in such a situation its low toughness would probably become a liability too often. But Alliances can deal with small to decent-sized creature nuisances. At worst, Deadly Insect will trade 1-1 in combat, and it will take down almost any creature along with it, large or small.


"There is no time for pain when this beast leaves its terrible sting.''

[Legend]

I'll have the final Fifth Dawn deck posted here shortly, then Battle of the Expansion Sets IV can begin as soon as I work out the seedings & pairings. I will start a separate post for the tournament, so only post in this thread if you have a comment about the Fifth Dawn deck. Otherwise, hold all signups, questions, or comments pertaining to Battle of the Expansion Sets IV until I start that thread up. Thank you.

Here's what I have right now for Fifth Dawn after looking at the nearly complete spoiler on mtgnews.com:


4 Bringer of the Green Dawn
4 Channel the Suns
4 Beacon of Creation
4 Eternal Witness
4 Sylvok Explorer
4 Joiner Adept

4 Bringer of the Blue Dawn

4 Razormane Masticore
4 Guardian Idol

24 Forest




Also, one minor late change to TORMENT:

-1 Cabal Coffers, +1 Shambling Swarm