I like this deck a lot, but I would have to echo the previous sentiment that it is pretty much 5-color Stax with Juggernauts instead of Smokestacks. I don't think that vastly changes the overall functioning of the deck;
If you "don't think that vastly changes the overall functioning" of the deck, then you will lose. To put it rather directly, I've articulated in the original post that this deck requires a significantly different mindset than other Workshop decks. Playing this like Prison + a few beats is not going to win matches.
I re-read your original post, and I don't see any description of how you would play it any differently than the original 5-color Stax. I.e., you keep throwing out big threats until your opponent runs out of answers and is overwhelmed. If a threat is countered, weld it back in. Etc., etc. Whether that threat is something that will gobble up their life total or gobble up their board position, how does it change how you play the deck on a fundamental level?
It sounds to me like you're pretty much trading a clock that takes away chunks of your opponent's board position for one that takes away chunks of his life total. Both are 4cc artifacts that have to be dealt with quickly or they will end the game.
That is simply incorrect on the relevant level of theory. Take Long.dec for example: Long can go from an empty board to winning the game in the space of a single turn. Asking Long.dec to go from 0 life to winning the game is not an applicable choice.
Long.dec may be an exception; I'm not experienced enough with it to have a solid opinion on it. Does it absolutely need to get Bargain or Necro in play in order to win? I don't think it used to, pre LED-restriction.
Rather than going point-by-point on your entire post, I'm just going to talk about the fundamentals of Smokestack for a bit here. Bear in mind, I've been on both sides of the board from the card in many matchups and have beaten it and beaten with it more times than I can count.
I have a fair amount of experience with it as well.
Smokestack's effect on an opponent is extremely devastating. Unhindered, it destroys their entire board with no exceptions in a rather expedient time. Unfortunately, the effect is entirely symmetric in all facets except either in combination with Welder or Crucible. Problem is, it is 99% worthless AGAINST a Welder, such as those played by Control Slaver. Or against a deck that doesn't need a lot of permanents, such as Long. Or against another permanent-heavy deck, such as any given Workshop variant.
Smokestack's effect is
almost symmetric; your opponent sacrifices first if you time the upkeep stack right (obvious, I know, but it bears stating). This means that your opponent suffers the setback to his mana development for a turn while you still have access to all of yours, which compounds the asymmetry in development, as you have more opportunity to cast permanents. The asymmetry in the number of permanents in 5-color Stax versus most other decks further exploits the symmetry of The Stack in your favor.
In the mirror or against another Workshop variant, Smokestack is generally not good unless you've got the combo with it, I agree with this statement.
The point about Long I addressed above. It
may be one deck where the life vs. board position argument goes in favor of Juggernaut.
I would content that against Welder it's not great but not necessarily bad if you get it early. If you can play it early and sacrifice a few lands to the Stack you'll probably be able to set your opponent back enough that Welder won't wreck its effectiveness. Since CS plays countermagic, they could counter something like a Thorn and swap that with Juggernaut or Smokestack, which wouldn't give an advantage to either. Overall, I do concede that against CS Juggernaut is at least somewhat better.
But if you want to talk about the relative merits versus particular cards in decks likely to be prominent in the new metagame, why not talk about Oath? Smokestack is much better than Juggernaut here. Why not talk about Swords to Plowshares, a non Stax-specific staple in fish?
And what happens if you have to ramp it to 2 or 3? Chances are it'll eat a significant chunk of your board in return before it finishes its job.
It's the slight asymmetry of who suffers from Stack first, and asymmetry of permanents vs. most decks, which makes you much, much more capable of taking the hit to your board position.
And then? It dies. So what happens if you haven't been able to secure a win whilst losing a good deal of your own permanents? Well, your Smokestack committed seppuku, and being that Workshops aren't exactly famous for their draw engines, you're probably a little brittle yourself. Meanwhile, your opponent can start re-accumulating resources to continue the battle.
You may or may not have secured the win by the time the Smokestack dies (if the game goes this long), but you probably will have given yourself such a lead in development that you will be able to force down the win at some point.
I will almost always scoop to an un-Fowed Smokestack on the first turn unless I have the mana and answer in hand, a reasonable way to tutor for it within the first 2 turns, or a very quick combo kill.
If you ever scoop to just (i.e., not in combination with a Crucible and other stuff) a first turn Smokestack under
any circumstances, you are playing incorrectly. I don't care what your logic or reasoning is and I'm sorry if this comes off as a bit of an attack but I am just appalled by this statement. I wouldn't scoop to Shop, Mox, Smokestack with
my draft deck from last night. Trying to find logic to scoop to a first turn symmetrical effect gives me a headache.
Sorry, maybe I over-stated this for dramatic effect. I don't always scoop, but I do often lose when 1st-turn Stack hits. The logic comes from the asymmetries in who-sacs-first and deck composition that I mentioned above.
Against Juggernaut I don't need to worry about losing my basic ability to play the game.
You're not supposed to be worried about losing your 'basic ability,' you're supposed to be worried about losing your life total.
Your life total is irrelevant until you're at or below 0. You can still function at 5 life as well as you could at 20 unless your deck relies on trading life for other resources. It's harder to function (for most decks) with no permanents in play.
I could double-block it with confidant + t. mage after my 2nd turn.
Trading one card and the likely mana investment of one turn for those two? Sign me up!
Assuming you went first:
Your opponent has maintained card parity in this scenario (1 card from Confidant, 1 artifact from T. Mage) if you only consider his cards, and has gotten card advantage when you consider your lost Juggernaut. His mana base has not been hampered. Aside from that, he's at 5 less life than he would have been if not for the Juggernaut.
Now, consider what could easily happen with Smokestack:
During his first upkeep after playing the confidant, he has to decide whether to sac the confidant and keep his mana intact, or sac a mana on the assumption that the cards drawn will allow him to outlast the Stack. If he kept a 3 mana opening draw (2 land + 1 mox), this is not an easy decision. If he sacs the mana source and doesn't draw another, he can't even play the Trinket Mage this turn and very well may have just lost the game. If he sacs the Confidant and plays the T. Mage (fetching out a Mox or the Lotus), his opponent ramps the Stack and plays 2-3 permanents. He then must sac the T. Mag and a mana source, leaving him with 3 mana sources if he didn't draw another. He'd better win this turn before the Stack leaves him with 1 permanent in play.
I could plow it, assuming my deck plays those.
Yes, and you can Oxidize or Rack and Ruin Smokestack. I'm well aware permanents can be destroyed.
My point is that Juggernaut dies to common maindeck creature removal (StP in fish) which doesn't effect Smokestack.
I can tinker out Plat. and ignore it.
Platinum also ignores the overwhelming majority of win conditions in the format.
But it doesn't ignore Smokestack.
I can tutor & build up my resources undisrupted over a few turns, then combo out.
I'd like to think that I have the Chalices, Leylines, Thorns, Trinisphere, Balance, Wastelands, Strip Mine, Karn, and Platinum Angel to make sure you don't have a few undisrupted turns.
I'd like to think that the more chances I have to go off unmolested, the better my chances of winning are.