I think the right way to think about Silence the Believers is not as a Plague Wind variant with pros and cons, but rather as the best Unmake/Path to Exile ever. A very strong card, and the best spoiled from JOU so far.

Dictate of the Twin Gods will lead to some very exciting turns. Flash is good enough that a few of the others (Erebos/Heliod) might be worth it too.

Polymorphous rush is a tough one to evaluate, as it is situationally a blow out or a dead card. I think it's probably bad because it seems tough to get high value out of it on someone else's turn, but it should be interesting to test out. (ETA: the same way that Savage Beating isn't reallly an instant.)

I've been looking to go ever heavier on instants/flash, so I'm pretty pleased with what we've seen so far.

Mind blown.  Can't even form complete sentences.  Will all the Eldrazi titans be T4-playable?

Wondering how long it will take the Eldrazi titans to crash in value?  Because Kozilek is running over $20 on ebay despite being worthless outside of casual (right?).  Apparently Emrakul is the prerelease card?  I'm going!

Note: Emrakul is really good with Karakas.  Cast, take new turn, attack, bounce, repeat.

Unfortunately the wording in the MTG Salvation spoiler was wrong: Nemesis Trap is not a strict upgrade from Unmake, and I am no longer interested in running it at all.

Now Eye of Ugin is a card that really wishes it could be good.  I counted, and colorless creature cards make up only 9/400 in my stack, Memnarch, Bosh, and Pentavus being the only ones I consider top notch (okay Masticore is pretty good too).  However, you only have to get one activation to break even, so if you drafted either Memnarch or 3+ other colorless creatures, I could see this card being pretty good in your deck.  I like pushing "techy" cards like this whose value changes dramatically depending on the surrounding deck (cf. Buried Alive), so I think I'll give it a chance.  (I am not, however, expecting it to earn a permanent spot.)

I thinks it's time to reread Treasure Hunt.

Marshal's Anthem is friggin' insane.  The best card spoiled so far, though I will always high-pick the boring-but-highly-functional Mysteries of the Deep.

EDIT: if you play with an "any ACC = free spell" rule, then Ricochet Trap is very nearly a Misdirection you don't have to pitch a blue card to, which would make *it* the best card spoiled so far.  But I ignored it, because to be free in my stack, the trap cost would have to be or you would have to have a red mana source.

I make an active effort to be conservative when a new set comes out, but I'm pretty sure the big janky creatures and sorceries from this set are generally stronger than the big janky creatures and sorceries from older sets that I've been running.

I love cantrip bounce a la Repeal and draft it higher than narrow hard removal spells like Unmake.  Multiple people have said they already have too many of these, and I'm wondering for my own sake which ones they're talking about?  Of course there's Resounding Silence and Repeal, and I guess also Cryptic Command (but come on, it's really a counterspell).  Repulse certainly doesn't count, it sucks.

Wagner, good eye on Bloodchief Ascension--I suspect I dismissed it because of its CMC=1 without being an instant.  Enchantments are freaking awesome though; much more staying power than most creatures.  Hope I get to see someone cast it off Altar of Shadows mana soon.

As for Elemental Appeal, it's a fine card.  It could probably replace Garza Zol or another of the other 5-6 power haste guys.  While I might prefer Garza's ability to cantrip if she connects, maybe I should just get this hopped up Ball Lightning because others at the table will find it more... appealing?

Conqueror's Pledge seems at least on par with the Verdant Force I play, now that I think about it (though outclassed by Storm Herd).  I try not to go overboard on the creatures that don't actually *do* very much, so I hope that doesn't mean the trusty old green elemental gets the boot (wow, there's your big-creature power creep over the years).  In my original reading of Conqueror's Pledge, I was underwhelmed because I was expecting the kicked version to make 20-30 guys by comparison to Rite of Replication and Sadistic Sacrament (but I guess I can't rationally hold that against it).

In summary, I move these token-making sorceries up to the very brink of the "definite" category, but I always wait 'till morning before committing to big decisions like this!

There's also the Double Naturalize, if you're into the whole instants thing (I definitely am).

Okay I'll bite and post mine too (171 at Sally, and there's Digges' underwhelming preview today).

DEFINITE:
Iona, Shield of the Emeria
Into the Roil
Lorthos, the Tidemaker
Mindbreak Trap
Rite of Replication
Electropotence
Summoning Trap

QUESTION MARKS:
Conqueror's Pledge?
Kalitas, Bloodchief of Ghet?
Needlebite Trap?
Elemental Appeal?

If there's a critical mass of good traps in the block, then also Trapmaker's Snare and Ravenous Trap.

Unstable Replication: WHAT THE FUCK???

Okay, that's freaking awesome, and I am stoked!  For the most part you have to avoid legendary creatures, but can you imagine playing this on Kokusho?

EDIT: Also, new Repeal seems fine.

I mostly agree with Darklich.  A lot of the cards which go infinite by themselves, while possibly not even as good as some other type 4 staples, seem to run against the "point" of the format.  That said, what you think is appropriate for Type 4 is a matter of opinion.  For instance I've always run a single firebreather just for S's and G's--first it was the lowly Pyric Salamander who always seemed to go 15th pick in drafts, but recently I upgraded to Shivan Dragon and haven't had any problems.  Treasure Trove, Flash of Insight, and company I would not run, first because they're much more powerful than a silly infinity/5 creature, and second because they take freaking forever to use optimally, and I'd rather not rely on "yelling" as the only safeguard against slow play.  (Also, note that Aladdin's Lamp actually does not let you stack your deck--it's just a downgraded Planar Portal--anyway, I run both.)  I've always been loath to errata cards, so no Quanar etc. for me.

Legacy Weapon and Whispers of the Muse I think are completely fair, and I don't really know why they're on the original list.  I was skeptical about Dark Depths at first, but indestructibility is not all that meaningful in a world full of Repeals and Unmakes (and Vanish Into Memory!).  Yeah it sucks when Dark Depths catches you with your pants down, but it doesn't happen all that often, and it's pretty awesome when it happens to someone else.  Obviously I think it's reasonable to be concerned about going overboard on cards that can kill as quickly as Memnarch and Glarecaster (both way scarier than Dark Depths), but I like to run a few to keep control players on their toes.  Pyromancy is another scary one, and I probably wouldn't run it but for split second answers.  The very costly random discard helps keeps it in check, so that it's a deterrent more than a weapon in the early and mid game.

Teferi, Mage of Zhalfir has been something of a problem, but he adds enough to gameplay that I wouldn't take him out.  It's interesting to see who will run him out against four opponents for a chance at a quick victory--the political dynamics of the table shift instantly.  More often than not, I find it's better to wait a little while, unless you have Myojin of Night's Reach + Memnarch in hand, or something similarly stupid.  Some players resent the completely non-interactive Aeon Chronicler, so I'm not sure about his future, but he's far too slow to have any potential for *real* abuse.

Skyshroud Elf aka Skyshroud Money Launderer has been pretty broken under the rule that "not using your Type 4 mana doesn't count as your spell for the turn."  Maybe what I should really do is post my stack in the stickied thread?

Quinn

What do you mean no evasion??  When I first looked at the card, I felt that, like all the Krakens before him, he should have trample or be unblockable.  But I realized that would almost be redundant, so I'm glad it was left off.

I will concede that without shroud, the card fails to challenge the truism that "creatures still suck."  But it's a very well-designed tentacle monster that will sometimes be relevant.

Also: guaranteed unplayable in constructed, so the online price should stabilize around $1.

Legendary octopus FTW.

The infinite Angel-maker, Luminarch Ascension, is pretty hilarious.  It is very literally a huge sign saying "HAY GUYS KILL ME PLZ," and then if they don't, you're in a pretty good position to win on the spot.

I've been testing out a few cards that go "infinite" by themselves, most recently Shivan Dragon, and they seem to be fine in small numbers.  That said, this is much, much stronger than Shivan Dragon, and I for one won't be running it.  Maybe the people who run multiple hasty firebreathers in their stacks will go for it.

I really do like the design.  It simultaneously becomes better and worse with more players.

Oh, mythic rares.  They're kind of a pain to get a hold of, but you've got to remember that uber-rarity allows Wizards to print more big splashy spells like Nicol Bolas Planeswalker without alienating serious constructed players.  That's a trade off I'm glad to make anyway, as I'm always trying to ratchet up the average power level of sorcery-speed spells in my stack.  (And often when a new mythic creature is printed that isn't significantly more powerful than the average beater in my stack, it can still be significantly more AWESOME.  Even those beautiful red expansion symbols increase the visceral response.  I'm looking at ARB's Defiler of Souls as an example card in this category.)

Anyway, the value of Mindbreak Trap is obvious--a "bad" Time Stop is still well above baseline for counterspells.  For the second best card spoiled thus far, I'd probably have to...

Agree with Wobbles on Electropotence, that the right way to think of it is as granting your attackers a kind of unblockable super-haste.  The comparison with Pandemonium is obviously unfair, as any symmetrical effect, regardless of power, will more often than not be a complete waste of your spell in Type 4.  Outside of your everyday 7/7 beaters, Electropotence goes very well with Pentavus, Chainer+sacrificers (BOOSH?), Mistmeadow Witch, Wydwen (this may be a nonstandard choice for T4), Kokusho, Protean Hulk, Dark Depths, Multani, any firebreathers you might be running, and of course Sekki Seasons' Guide (whom I'll be reinstating shortly).  I swear, one of these days, there's going to be a critical mass of cards that combo-kill with Pentavus that it will be the next Glarecaster... you'll see.

After that, Iona will probably get the nod from me, though it looks like the kind of thing that dies pretty quickly on account of being annoying and not having Shroud, so really doesn't help its caster very much.  The text has the kind of mythic-rare AWESOME I mentioned above, but the artistic flavor leaves a strange feeling in my stomach: http://www.magic-ville.com/fr/gazette/show_article?ref=442 .  Kalitas is fine too I guess, but I'm kind of indifferent to him and probably won't bother if I don't open one in a draft.

I'm not impressed by Chandra Ablaze--the +1 ability is like Liliana Vess' except you can only target yourself.

In recent sets, my baseline for creature spot removal has become Unmake/STP, so I also reserve the right to be unimpressed with Hideous End and all other Dark Banishing remakes.

Quinn

Agreeing with Mr.Coke, I have to say that the above has not been my experience versus Workshops, at least on the play.  If I lead with Island, Remora, Go, the shop player can either try to play through it, or they can play a land and pass the turn back (yes, if they have Strip and I didn't have a Mox, then I'm in trouble).  The first scenario will often net me quite a number of cards for my investment of one blue mana, and if I have or draw into a Force for an important lock piece, it could practically be GG right there.  Even if no Force, there are worse things I could have done with my first turn than  : Sorcery: Draw cards.  If the shop player does not play through the Remora, then I can either hold up  next turn unharassed, or I can keep the Remora around to make more and more land drops, at which point it will be much harder for the shop player to lock me out.

As with anything versus shops, Remora is less spicy on the draw, first because they get a chance to play relevant spells before the fish comes down, and second because you don't catch all their SoLoMoxen in hand.

Quinn

It doesn't use the "Choose one--" templating, so I have to disagree.  Like Naturalize.  You can misdirect that from an enchantment to an artifact, right?

Quinn

Willbender cannot (in general) protect your own spells from counters a la Misdirection.  A spell on the stack cannot target itself; Misdirection works by changing the target of a counterspell on the stack to Misdirection so that the counterspell fizzles.  Since Willbender's ability is not a spell, this is not an option, unless the counterspell in question is Voidslime or the like.

There are, of course, on-board counters that can protect your stuff, namely Voidmage Apprentice and Prodigy.

Quinn

One of my favorite casual decks I'm running right now I like to call "Intuition MBC." 

Basically, when Demigod of Revenge was spoiled for Shadowmoor, my first thought was "OMG how awesome would it be to cast Intuition for three of these??"  So yeah, I stuffed that into a monoblack control shell along with some Underground Seas and Watery Graves.  No Polluted Deltas, because they turn off my Bosium Strips, which is one of my favorite casual cards ever.  Also running a playset of Accumulated Knowledge for good measure.

The rest is filled out with kind of predictable stuff like Consume Spirit, Corrupt, Cabal Coffers+Urborg, Innocent Blood, Damnation, you get the idea.

Q

Instant speed Vengeful Rebirth would have been SAVAGE, probably the best type 4 card in the set.  But Wizards doesn't usually print regrowth effects at instant speed, Naya Charm being the only counterexample I can think of.  I was thinking more along the lines of instant speed Deny Reality.  A couple of new cards I can give my endorsements to are:

Grixis Sojourner - upgrade from Cremate.

Predatory Advantage - This will make so many effing tokens over the course of the game, and as noted, enchantments tend to have a pretty good life span, so this card presents a long term threat.  It's similar to Urza's Factory and Sprout Swarm, which are definitely cards I like to have in my deck (as a dedicated grind-out-a-painful-victory control player).

Moar instants plz?

The best turns are those when everyone does something, or even multiple things, so I think the best thing Shards of Alara had to offer was not its big flashy rares and mythics ala Cruel Ultimatum and Godsire, but rather its 3-color charms and the "resounding" cyclers.  (That said, we're still waiting for 3/5 of Alara Reborn's Sojourners, but judging by the small effects on Bant and Naya Sojourners, we may be disappointed--still, we can hope for some kind of bounce on Esper Sojourner, right?)

One thing that amuses me about Double Cancel, or whatever it's going to get called, is that it's red.  Sunforger.dec has been a popular mini-strategy at my stack (have others tried running this card btw?) thanks to Urza's Rage (!!) and a number of white-tinged counterspells in Absorb, Dromar's, etc.  Actually, Sunforger is the only reason I kept Suffocating Blast as long as I did.

Q

Nice with Pentavus.

Defiler of Souls is such a badass.  I'm not sure whether he's really that good, but he's so cool I have to try him out.

How bad is Broodmother Dragon really?  It looks pretty comparable to Verdant Force, and I might venture to suggest it's better thanks to the flying (and a little more flexibility granted by devour).  Anyway, I'm going to pick one up.

Q

Rereading my post, it sounds a little more negative than I intended.  Every stack needs a certain volume of bomby sorcery-speed stuff, and Conflux has a lot going for it in this department.  With each new set, it's fun to trim the weaker cards out of an old stack and continually increase its power level.

I'm unsure about Magister Sphinx.  It's situationally awesome (pretty savage under Wound Reflection), and it's better than some of the chaff I'm running now and have been meaning to cut, so I'll try to pick one up for sure.  I just hope he doesn't become another "last pick" in a month or two.

Q

Too bad about Fleshformer.  Now it's just a bad Smokespew, except for randomly combo'ing with Crowd Favorites etc.

I guess I'm just chasing down a bunch of sorcery-speed rares and mythics this time, plus the obligatory Path to Exile?  Progenitus is very cool (obviously), but for the most part big, flashy sorceries/creatures are interchangeable, and game play is not very interactive when it revolves around them.  I do appreciate that we got two big untargetables this time around, as attacking people with anything less can be risky.

Q

These are so cool.  You are right that the blue one is ridic.  It's +1 ability is Vedalken Orrery??  SWEET.  It's clear to me looking at them that you spent a fair amount of time thinking about what capabilities each color brings to type 4.  I especially like the idea of putting Regrowth on the green one.

Nice job on templating the black one's ultimate ability.  As you mention, an RFG clause would be flavorful, but your wording does a lot in the space you're given.  A different direction you could take this is to have small abilities that RFG cards in hands and in graveyards and an ultimate ability that can any play cards she has removed for free until end of turn.  Maybe +1 to Tormod's Crypt a player?  This design feels more intuitive to me and would give the card additional utility as a grave hater.

Harle, Lunatic Jester sucks, right?  (Sweet name though, and that really goes for all five of your walkers.)  Are there any other cards in type 4 that flip coins?  Crooked Scales doesn't count.  I guess there's Odds//Ends if you play it.  I understand that you can activate the +2 ability one turn and either of the other abilities next turn for a 75% chance of getting the result you want on each flip.  Actually I'm not totally sure how that works... say you activate the ultimate ability with the first ability carrying over from last turn.  Do you flip two coins for each permanent and then decide which flips to ignore, or do you start at one permanent, flip two coins, and then decide which to ignore?  You know, because there might be two permanents which you either want to both remain in play or both RFG but not just one or the other.  Or more generally you'll probably be in a better position for scheming if you know all the possible outcomes before making choices.  But this is not specified on the card, and I don't know if such an ability is well-supported by game rules.

Regardless, Harle is not very strong.  If you want to work coin flips and randomness into the design I'd suggest you axe the strange +2 ability and make the -4 ability into a +1 ability.  This could net you a lot of turns in the long run, but it's probably fair because you invest a turn up front in casting the planeswalker.  Maybe another ability deals 4X damage to a random opponent, where X is the total number of opponents.  I'm not sure if something like this is good for a game of magic cards, though.  While it's super awesome to randomly blast someone out of the sky in a big game, it is much less awesome to be on the receiving end, where you lose the game because of your die roll.  But Dark Depths has kind of been doing that to people too without being a big problem, so who knows.  In any case, I'm sure you can think of some strong abilities for this card.

Finally, one problem I foresee with planeswalkers in multiplayer T4 is that SOMEONE will usually be able to just attack and kill them with minimal resource investment, right?  (This is not so much an issue with the white walker.)  Anyway, it seems they have to be super strong to be good.  Let us know how your game on Friday goes.

Q

If you allow Three Islands to tap for UUU or W (or maybe even WUU or WUUU, you'd have to decide on something), and play with an ACC rule that lets you play extra spells for the turn if you didn't use any type 4 mana for them, I could actually see Three Islands being powerful enough without the cycling/recursion.  My playgroup does use this rule and runs dedicated mana producers like Crystal Quarry and Skyshroud Elf, both of which are pretty high picks.  Anyway, under such a rule, Three Islands would let you play most of the 2-3 mana counterspells for free (even 4-mana cspells if you allow for WUUU silliness), not to mention morphs and some of the wizards and small artifacts.  As a comparison, my group runs both Dreadship Reef and Calciform pools for the purpose of powering out counterspells, which are a little bit weak and which don't cantrip, but tend to get picked before the big dumb creatures.

I also love Mastriano's suggestion of entwining Betrayal of Flesh off this.

Yet my group is full of a bunch of sticklers for Rules That Work, and it looks pretty tough to template the card in such a way as to make all its cool interactions work without covering each one as a separate case.

Q

I'm trying to figure out what Three Islands *does* beyond cantripping.  Makes Eternal Dragon a little bit better?  Plays Swords to Plowshares for free (if you play with that ACC rule)?  Does it sacrifice infinitely to something along the lines of Zuran Orb?

You must play with some strange rules if you need to specify that playing a land doesn't count as playing a spell.

Q

After attending the pre-release today and seeing the *real* texts of Necrogenesis and Invincible Hymn, I have to say that Necrogenesis is good for type 4 (replaces Night Soil, which has been a solid grave hater and chump blocker), and Invincible Hymn just isn't what I thought it was.  It sets your life total to X rather than just gaining you X life.  So I made the appropriate edit to my list above.

Q

Actually you can't steal Hypnox's CIP ability with Gather Specimens because when it comes into play, you did not play it from your hand.  Same goes for all the Myojin and all the respective interactions with Spelljack, Guile, Desertion, Temporal Aperature, Brilliant Ultimatum, etc.  Sure is funny when people try it, though (and it would be even funnier if I ran Phage the Liability--by the way, what are people's experiences with her, is she a real Queen of Spades for the poor sap who gets stuck with her?).

What are Smmenen's favorite T4 cards in Alara?  Or will I need SCG Premium to find out?

Q

How does Prince of Thralls compare to Lim-Dul the Necromancer?  I have yet to be greatly impressed by Lim-Dul.

If I may continue to partake in Speculation Fest, I'll offer up my top 5 list as well.  I'm measuring "best" as in, if my pack 1 pick 1 were somehow the 19 Alara cards I listed, my first pick would be:
1. Collect Specimen.
But if that card weren't in the pack, I'd take
2. Vicious Shadows.
If neither of those were in the pack,
3. Resounding Wave
4. Naya Charm (I'm not kidding)
5. Resounding Thunder.
If we don't want to count Vicious Shadows, my "next first pick" would probably be The King Sedris.

Q

I really don't think it's going to be unreasonably busted.  Unlike Knollspine Invocation, there are non-split second answers once it hits the board.  I've found the weaker Pyromancy to be "fair enough" for Type 4, and I don't see Shadows being any higher a power level.  I also don't see it being any more "unfun" than Glarecaster, which just keeps catching us with our repsective pants down.  We'll see what I think of this in a few weeks.

Q