Starting Oath Hand Question

[Draven]

I am starting this in the Open Forum, hoping some more advanced players can offer insight, but if the powers that be feel this is an "Improvement" article, then I am sorry.

I have been play-testing ICBM Oath, my teammate was playing U/B Dark Confidant Tendrils (pretty close to IT).  I know he is playing Cabal Therapy, obviously against Oath, Therapy into an Oath is really good. So first turn, he would Therapy naming Oath everytime. Here are the two scenerios (actually, it is the same opeing hand, just play or draw):

On the Play:
Hand: Oath, Oath, Orchard, Fetch, Waste, Chalice, Force

On the Draw
Hand: Oath, Oath, Orchard, Fetch, Waste, Chalice, Force

Obviously, if he Therapies the Oath away, it is bad, however, if it doesn't, they are pretty good hands. So here is the question, if you have a two Oath hand and no mox, do you mulligan the hand for fear of the Therapy, or do you keep the hand, hope he doesn't have the Therapy and have a strong start?

If there are any other questions, let me know and I will try and answer them.

Thank you...

[meadbert]

On the draw this is a pretty terrible hand.  The issue is not IT therapying away Oath.  The problem is IT just winning.

If they go first they can drop artifact mana turn 1 before Chalice comes on line.  Unless you draw a mox you can only play Chalice@0 which would be pretty worthless.  Then turn 2 they are in goldfish land and you still might not have another blue spell to pitch to force of will.

If you draw a mox or blue spell (pretty good chance) then your hand improves.

On the play here is what I do.  Start out by confidantly laying your Force of Will on the table and declaring you play Chalice@0.  Then say oops and play Chalice.

Then play wasteland.

What this does is it makes IT play as though you can actually use your Force of Will.
IT will be reluctant to fetch out an Underground Sea if it is looking at a Wasteland.

Should IT play cabal therapy he might  name Force of Will since he knows you have one.

[Lou]

On the play here is what I do.  Start out by confidantly laying your Force of Will on the table and declaring you play Chalice@0.  Then say oops and play Chalice.

I don't know what the rules say about this, and I am sure some one who does will chime in, but this sounds like cheating to me.

[ashiXIII]

On the play here is what I do.  Start out by confidantly laying your Force of Will on the table and declaring you play Chalice@0.  Then say oops and play Chalice.

I don't know what the rules say about this, and I am sure some one who does will chime in, but this sounds like cheating to me.

This is legal. You're allowed to reveal cards from your hand to your opponent, and you're allowed to make bluffs. There's nothing here about misrepresenting the game state, or intentionally making illegal plays, so it's fine.

[Moxlotus]

  intentionally making illegal plays

Start out by confidantly laying your Force of Will on the table and declaring you play Chalice@0.  Then say oops and play Chalice.
 

That seems like the definition of intentionally making an illegal play.

On the draw that hand is terrible.

[BreathWeapon]

I don't see why you are worried about Cabal Therapy naming Oath of Druids, if you play Polluted Delta and Chalice of the Void there's nothing about that play that tells the opponent you are playing Oath. It could be some version of Fish and I think he would be more likely to name something like Force of Will since it covers all of the possible decks, except maybe Ichorid.

[nietzsche]

If its your team mate knows you are running oath, then this is a definite mulligan, once oath is gone you just lose with this hand.  However, if your opponent doesn't know you are running oath then i would just go ahead and bluff fish or the force as stated earlier.

[Draven]

If its your team mate knows you are running oath, then this is a definite mulligan, once oath is gone you just lose with this hand.  However, if your opponent doesn't know you are running oath then i would just go ahead and bluff fish or the force as stated earlier.

There are two scenerios, one as was just stated, a team-mate which was the case while playtesting. Second scenerio is games 2 and/or 3, they know what you are playing.

If your opponant doesn't have a Cabal Therapy, why is this a "terrible" hand? You have your combo (Oath and Orchard) if they do not have a Cabal Therapy, it is a good hand. So here is the question again:

If you have a two Oath hand and no mox, do you mulligan the hand for fear of the Therapy, or do you keep the hand, hope he doesn't have the Therapy and have a strong start?

[meadbert]

If your opponent doesn't have therapy and you are on the draw then this hand is pretty terrible.  Yes you have your win by turn 4 combo but IT goldfishes by turn 4 over 80% of the time so it doesn't really matter that you can swing with 2 Angels on turn 4 if turn 4 never happens.  If you top deck a blue card this changes everything.

On the play this is a bit better.  First of all Chalice is more disruptive and second you only give IT 3 turns.  IT can goldfish in 3 turns easily and IT can play around Chalice, but playing around Chalice for a turn 3 win?  That is tough.  I still wouldn't like the hand but it is definitely worth keeping.

So to answer your question:

On the play: Keep
On the draw: Mulligan

EDIT:Fixed two spelling errors

[Anusien]

On the draw, you've practically mulliganed to 5 anyway.  Chalice is rather worthless on the draw, and the second Oath is going to be clogging your hand.  Plus this is an extremely slow hand, without any significant disruption elements.  If you know you're playing against IT, automatic mulligan.  I would probably mulligan it anyway.

[Draven]

That is a good point about the Chalice on the play.  The second Oath *does* clog up your hand unless they have a Force or Duress. Really, the Cabal Therpay is the only negative to double Oath, unless your first Oath resolves and well, that ain't a bad thing the last time I checked...

So I guess, the synopsis is unless you have a fast Oath (Oath + mox) or a severly disruptive hand (Chalice on the play, Duress, or Force and draw) then it is a mulligan.

Thanks guys for the assistance.

[Anusien]

Especially since you know what you're playing, I'd be wary of relying on Duress on the draw.  You very well may not get an untap step, and even then who knows.  The main point is that the only way you can beat IT is to race them, and if your Oath does not come down until turn 2 on the draw, you're going to be in trouble, especially if you can't stop their Cabal Therapy.

[Draven]

Especially since you know what you're playing, I'd be wary of relying on Duress on the draw. You very well may not get an untap step, and even then who knows. The main point is that the only way you can beat IT is to race them, and if your Oath does not come down until turn 2 on the draw, you're going to be in trouble, especially if you can't stop their Cabal Therapy.

Okay, here is a the same scenerio on the draw (with one different card)

On the draw: Oath, Oath, Orchard, Fetch, Waste, Force, Mox

Is this a keepable hand against IT? You still have the same problem, if they have a Cabal Therapy, your are screwed, but if they don't, you have a first turn Oath. Is this a hand you just go "balls to the wall" with, or do you anticipate the Therapy and mull away for a more controlish/dusruptive hand?

[Edit] Sorry, I typed Oath instead of IT, see bold...

[warble]

You're on the draw with a turn 4 win and no disruption whatsoever against IT that has just kept it's starting grip of 7.  If IT can't win by turn 4 with a good starting 7 against no disruption I would shed my first tear for IT ever.  Seriously...IT plops down all it's mana on turn 1 because it needs it.  That stated, it is never the correct play to keep a hand that loses to almost every starting 7 your opponent has.  Mulligan because you'll lose to your opponent's deck.  IT isn't inconsistent like TPS because it will intuition and win off it by turn 3.  A mull into a usable force of will or a chalice or null rod or multiple strip effects is good because you start at a disadvantage and need mechanisms to make that up; focus on winning only and you'll lose fast as hell.  Try not to lose on the draw against a tendrlis combo deck.  It's really friggin' hard.

[meadbert]

I would actually be inclined to keep this second hand.  It is basically a turn 3 win because IT pays life towards Fetchlands and Tutors.

IT can easily combo off by turn 3, but sometimes it can't and you do have Wasteland to possibly hose them.  Also you have two chances to top deck a blue spell and have a counter up by their turn 3.

The odds may not be in your favor but they are better than trying to beat IT on the draw after a mulligan.

[Draven]

I would actually be inclined to keep this second hand. It is basically a turn 3 win because IT pays life towards Fetchlands and Tutors.

IT can easily combo off by turn 3, but sometimes it can't and you do have Wasteland to possibly hose them. Also you have two chances to top deck a blue spell and have a counter up by their turn 3.

The odds may not be in your favor but they are better than trying to beat IT on the draw after a mulligan.

I agree, it is a strong goldfish hand, my question is in regards to fearing the Therapy? Do you fear the Therapy and throw it back, or keep it and goldfish (as long as there is no Therapy)?

[LessThanRight]

Re: Second scenario:

On the draw, fearing therapy, this is an easy mulligan.  You'll lose half you win conditions with no recovery in sight.  Not worth the risk.

On the play, with orchard/mox/oath, there is no fear.  Especially since you have a second oath to recover with after they force.

Here's how is goes:

Oath, Oath, Orchard, Fetch, Waste, Force, Mox

T1: You: Orchard, Mox, Oath/They FoW, pass

At this point your opponent may think you've just gone 'all in' on a first turn oath and they busted you.  A little acting will help here.  Confidently throw down the first turn oath, then slump when they FoW.

Now you have a Turn 2 where you will get to draw which may lead to:

1. Draw a blue card - You win.  Play Oath with force backup.