[play scenario] What do you discard to Thirst :P:P

[klu]

I think the probability of ichorid player having chain of vapor + blue mana source on his first turn is far inferior to his probability of having a single chalice for 0, strip mine, or therapy your demonic tutor (i'll explain). all those game plan wreck you.

For therapy on DT : if your game plan looks like that, the ichorid player (assuming he is well minded) will only think about 2 potential target you can have in your hand : demonic tutor or vampiric tutor cause if you had ywill, you would have played it in the same turn to play again petal, black, crypt with already U in pool. ichorid player now knows he can't fight vampiric (cause it would have been played in answer to therapy) he would then have only one target to name : DT.

cause : why the hell would his opponent discard 2 fows after playing a tinker which was not on colossus?

Last tournament, i faced the same ichorid player twice in the swiss and in 1/2.
In the swiss rounds : we drawed to top8 but we played a game to see the match : he therapied my tinker without knowing my hand (i had sol ring on board, he had a chalice). I was surprised and asked him why he named that single card? -> because it was the only card that could win him. He won the game.
In the top8, I won him in 1/2 to finaly win the tournament for a ruby.

Edit : fixed grammar

[Scoops666]

I believe that Option 3 is the superior play. It gives the Ichorid player the least amount of cards to find an out. And The chance of them having one of those chains is even less than has been previously stated, because to tutor they would also need to draw the proper amount of acceleration or card draw (in the case of Mysty, Vamp and Imperial). I think that this puts the probability so low on doing it all in one turn to justify leaving yourself open to that random chance.

[Pave]

I had considered the Tinker for Lotus and DT for Will plan but the only gains to be made from it, in return for the real risk of turn one Chalice and even Therapy naming DT, is the drawing of a small number of additional cards which MUST include a blue card (simply in order to attain parity with option 2) and a Drain.  You could draw crap and I'd prefer not to risk that in addition to the possibility of Chalice.

[Glix]

I would probably go with option three myself.

Option one seems out overall (only an option against other decks).  It's too slow and too vulnerable to hate.

Option two is quite poweful, and has many merits.  It can defend against the chain of vapor and protects you colossus.

Option three seems like the best, however.  This essentially gives your opponant a single turn to live.  Option two gives them several outs (tutor, therapy (fow), chain), in addition to therapy (or unmask now), chain.  That means that the overall percentage is much better for a faster win with this option.  They can unmask or therapy you for either card and you have options.  Drawing a blue card is not an unreasonable expectation, which gives you defense turn 2, in addition to drawing a good card that would likewise help you.  Having the faster win, imo, seems stronger, as it gives your opponant one single option, and if he passes up his first turn, you win.

Basically, it breaks down as such: Either you give your opponant time or you risk him having one of sixty cards in the top 8 of his deck.  The first option gives him the opportunity to recover as long as he has both one of eight of sixy and one of four of sixty in his openting hand, while option one gives him the option of one in sixty.  Statistically, the later option gives one a slightly better percent chance of winning, I believe, esspecially when one takes into account real-time shuffling procedure.

Regarding Steve's proposition- This rout, while powerful, opens you up to even more hate.  You have spent your first turn preparing for your second, which is game-winning, but you rely on the single card in your hand.  The card must be demonic tutor, if your opponant is competent, as that is the only card they could successfuly hit that you would keep while tinkering for lotus.  In addition, this option really isn't any faster than option three, which is only vulnerable to one card as oppossed to 12+ cards of common hate in the opposing deck.

All of this is based on the assumption that your deck doesnt maindeck some crazy anti-ichorid card of doom, and that they haven't put a leyline into play

[Smmenen]

Actually, I have a modification to my solution: you tinker away the Sapphire instead of the Mana Crypt.  Then if they drop chalice, you can DT for Remand and still generate 6 mana to Thirst and Tinker post Willed DT for Repeal.

I still think that, given the three options presented, the third is the best.  But I think my solution is superior to options 1 and 2.  And I'm shocked that no one else came up with it. 

[Pave]

Actually, I have a modification to my solution: you tinker away the Sapphire instead of the Mana Crypt. Then if they drop chalice, you can DT for Remand and still generate 6 mana to Thirst and Tinker post Willed DT for Remand.

Sacking Sapphire to Tinker does not guarantee that you will have the ten mana to replay Tinker, DT, Time Walk and Thirst (if Chalice fails to appear).  You will need to rip a land or draw one with Thirst.  This restrains how far that Thirst can actually put you ahead of the more direct option 2.  Sacking Sapphire will, however, guarantee that you have an out to first-turn Chalice, but at the cost of Time Walk.  All you gain on option 2, then, is a Thirst for Knowledge, and this at the cost of a whole turn.

Option 3 leaves you completely vulnerable, if only for a single turn.  Why leave yourself so exposed when you don't have to?  You give Ichorid another turn to find their solution, but they will need a Therapy or Unmask to use it as well.  In option 3 Ichorid needs to find one card in one turn.  In option 2 it needs to find 2 cards over the course of 2 turns.  Isn't the latter the harder to muster?

EDIT: My mistake.  See below, Steve is right: sacking Sapphire does still gurantee you ten mana.

[roberts91rom]

Option 3 does not leave you completely vulnerable. It is more protective than any other options. Why? Yes, they have to find 2 cards in 2 turns. Yes, that is harder than 1 card in 1 turn. HOWEVER, they need to find that 1 card without any tutors, thus they are looking for 4 cards in a stack of 60, instead of 2 cards that they run a large bounty of. (Being 4xCoV, 4xUnmask, 4xCabal Therapy, 4xTutors.) You have essentially doubled the Ichorid player's amount of CoV in the deck. Rarely does an Ichorid player hold a tutor thinking "Oh man I'm gonna win 2 turns slower, but I have a tutor in my hand MAN." In addition to this. Let us assume that they get exactly what they need to beat both our hands. My hand is holding Demonic Tutor. Your hand is empty or at the very best 1xFoW+1xDSC. That is a big difference, seeing as how I have no problem going into topdeck mode waiting to see what to tutor for, while you go into topdeck mode praying for YWill, AND a black source, AND either a bounce spell AND Tendrils or Time Walk. I think my hand just keeps on looking better and better while your only arguement is "I win-more, 1 turn quicker."

[Smmenen]

Actually, I have a modification to my solution: you tinker away the Sapphire instead of the Mana Crypt. Then if they drop chalice, you can DT for Remand and still generate 6 mana to Thirst and Tinker post Willed DT for Remand.

Sacking Sapphire to Tinker does not guarantee that you will have the ten mana to replay Tinker, DT, Time Walk and Thirst (if Chalice fails to appear).  You will need to rip a land or draw one with Thirst.  This restrains how far that Thirst can actually put you ahead of the more direct option 2.  Sacking Sapphire will, however, guarantee that you have an out to first-turn Chalice, but at the cost of Time Walk.  All you gain on option 2, then, is a Thirst for Knowledge, and this at the cost of a whole turn.

?

no it doesn’t, you go:

T1: Tinker away Sapphire for Lotus

T2:
Sac Lotus, Lotus Petal and tap Crypt – that’s BBBB2 for DT for Yawg Will (b floating)

Replay Sapphire, Petal, Lotus.  Tap Academy and then use all your mana.  You still have 10 mana floating.

Saccing sapphire instead of crypt doesn’t change the amount of mana you have.

[Harlequin]

Because you tinkered for Lotus they will likely name Will or FoW with Cabal if possible - So your DT is realtively safe (outside of Lotus -> Cabal, creature, flashback). 

But in addition to chalice for 0 they could also use Unmask or even Duress to get your DT, then you've basically got nothing again.  I still Stick by choice three even in light of the Tinker -> Lotus plan.  Its the only plan where they must chain in one turn to survive.

[Glix]

Your plan is an option, Steve, and it does work, but it is not in any way supperior to option 3 unless they have no discard effects or chalices or leyelines and have the chain in their hand.  It is equally as fast, but you have less cards in your hands and are vulnerable to more effects, and has no real advanteges, save revealing more about the cards in your hand based off your action of tinker > lotus.  I would consider it, yet, but I believe that option 3 is just better overall, as you win in the same amount of time, but they don't konw what's in your hand, and given the chance I doubt they would be able to cast a successful therapy.

Of course the meathod you described works, and is potent, but it is likely unneccessary.  An interesting look at the hand, regardless.

[Smmenen]

Oh, I agree.  I said in my first reply in this thread, that I think that option 3 is probably the best.  By my fourth option is probably better than the other two presented.