[play scenario] What do you discard to Thirst :P:P

[TheBrassMan]

A situation came up in testing recently that sparked some debate between me and Rich Shay.  The conversation we had resulting from the scenario was very interesting, and it seemed like a great thing to post on TMD.  For the record, I find this topic particularly fascinating, and may write up a short article/daily on the subject in the future, so prepare to be quoted.

I'm playing Slaver or BrassGifts or GiftsX or any other Thirst for Knowledge deck.  I'm playing against Ichorid, on the play, it's game one (so no boards), but I know what I'm up against (l33t scouting or it's Meandeck or something).


I keep a hand of: Sapphire, Mana Crypt, Lotus Petal, Force, Force, Thirst for Knowledge, Demonic Tutor.  I lead out with Sapphire, Crypt, Thirst, and draw Tinker, Academy, Force.  My hand is now 3x Force of Will, Tinker, DT, Academy, Petal, and I have to discard.  There are three clear plays.


1. Discard Petal: play Academy (or hold in fear of strips), pass, have a turn 2 Tinker, with Force of Will backup, and the ability to DT for a turn 3 kill if I draw a black source.

2. Discard Force and Demonic tutor: Tinker for Colossus on turn one for a turn 3 kill with Force backup.

3. Discard two Forces: Tinker for colossus and kill on turn 2 with no counter backup.

Keep in mind your opponent has at least one Chain of Vapor, 2 Disadvantage Tutors, and 4 Cabal Therapy, along with Lotus/Jet/Sapphire/Chrome for acceleration.


In classic "what would you do" thread style, I'll post what I did and what happened after the thread gets some activity, but keep in mind the "actual outcome" doesn't change which play is correct the majority of the time.

If you're not happy with any of those options, tell me.  If you think I should have mulliganed or led with Petal-DT, tell me, just be sure to tell me why.

In most situations, you're going to win the game with any of these plays.  I'm not as interested in which play you think is right, as much as how you make these kinds of marginal decisions when they come up.

[Kasuras]

I'd go for the turn 2 kill, option 3.

Every turn you give him gives him more chance to get a Therapy, Chain and a superior Board position: he'll just Therapy whatever you have in his second turn, and since he got that extra turn he'll most likely have found that Chain too + a lot of scary creatures in the graveyard.

A turn 1 Bazaar going off for an additional turn is a risk I would not be willing to take.

[The Atog Lord]

Wow, TMD looks all weird....

Anyways,

I'd likely have set myself up with an early Colossus, leaving myself with the ability to Force. If I do this, I can stop a turn one bounce spell. What I can't stop, however, is a turn 2 bounce spell preceded by a discard spell naming Force of Will. The Demonic Tutor would have let me Timewalk, giving the opponent only a single turn to respond.

[Roxas]

I would likewise go for the early Colossus, most likely option one (especially if you're on the play, which I assume is the case).  For them to be able to deal with Colossus through Force before dying, they would need to have Bazaar *and* an accelerant *and* a Tutor or the Chain of Vapor.  I'd say the odds are in your favor here if you go with option one. 

EDIT:  Missed the whole "lack of black source" thing with option one.  Option two is probably the best, then, because they still need to have both Therapy and Chain or a way to find it.  It doesn't leave you quite as solid if they manage to deal with the Colossus, but I suppose it's worth the risk.

[Vegeta2711]

Well 'the right play' in this scenario is just what gives you the best odds on winning. Unless you can just read your opponent THAT damn well for some reason.

Since I'm not going to run the math on that, I'm just going to pick option 3. Since that's the play that they HAVE to have CoV or a tutor or they lose.

[Anusien]

The way Smmenen tells it (whether this is accurate or not, who knows), the only way you win is set up an early Colossus with backup.  Option 2 seems the best.  Option 1 feels too slow simply because he has a lot of leverage to start digging/tutoring for Chain of Vapor.  Your kill is at least as slow as in option 2.  Option 3 seems interesting, but banking on him not having any hate at all is too risky.  Option 1 preserves DT so it seems like it keeps you set up the best, but it also leaves you extremely vulnerable to Cabal Therapy and you still need to draw a black source.  So yeah, option 2.

[Machinus]

If I hadn't scouted their deck, I would definitely go with option 1, since it is the safest play. However, knowing that they are playing Ichorid, I belive option 2 is the best play.

While Rich's idea of DT -> Walk for the turn 2 kill is fast, it loses if they have a bounce spell in their first eight cards. Since it is very unlikely that they will be able to win before you do, I think that it is a much stronger play to go with option 2. This will leave you with one counter against their first nine cards, versus no counters against their first eight.

[MoxMonkey]

I'll go with number 3 because they only get 1 turn to find an out and you have Demonic Tutor (useable with Lotus Petal) left even if they find their out.  Demonic Tutor lets you get back in the game no matter what happens with finding Yawgmoth's Will, Ancestral Recall or a TFK to put DSC into the deck depending on what you topdeck. 

[Machinus]

I'll go with number 3 because they only get 1 turn to find an out and you have Demonic Tutor (useable with Lotus Petal) left even if they find their out.  Demonic Tutor lets you get back in the game no matter what happens with finding Yawgmoth's Will, Ancestral Recall or a TFK to put DSC into the deck depending on what you topdeck. 

This argument would be strong if you had a way to generate two black mana. DT -> Will -> Tinker after they bounce the colossus isn't possible without it, so all your options turn into playing control (depending on what you topdeck obviously).

[nataz]

How good is FOW here though?

I'm pretty much a terrible player, but I think option 3 is the scariest to the ichorid player. First off consider how many "answers" to DSC ichorid has in the first place. 1) speed, 2) Chain.

With this kind of hand you can make the issue of speed irrelevant. Even if you don't draw the black source, Ichorid gets only one attack step before you pretty much win out right, barring a) bounce, or b) a very unlikely combonation of ashen blocks.

So lets look at the bounce. We are looking at only one bounce spell in the entire deck, and at best 2 disadvantage tutors to get them, and they only have 1 turn to do it.

Conversely the current deck is running something like a ridiculous 4 cabal therp and 4 unmask, all free, and in the case of therp stupid easy to accomplish. If they do manage somehow to get a chain in hand in the next 2 turns (which isn't entirely impossible of course), you can almost bet that they will try and clear the way with a discard before they cast it, obviously naming FOW anyways. Even unmask could be pretty effective seeing that you don't have the second blue card to pitch for FOW in hand yet.

I feel like the more time you give the ichorid player, the more chances they have to force a discard of your counters, and set up a tutor -> chain, all the while setting themselves up for a turn 3 win.

*edit,
of course this is coming from the guy who didn't expect leyline, frownz

[Tin_Mox5831]

This has already been said several times, but I agree that if you don't know the deck selection, use Play #2. It's a very good middle-of-the-road strategy that still maintains a fast clock. If I know it's Ichorid, however, Play #3 looks pretty hot to me. The odds are miniscule that they'll have their answer in time and if they do manage to stop you, it means they spent two turns just countering your play rather than lowering your life total. I wish opponents just randomly Time Walked me like that. 

Later,
Dave

[sa-x]

I would definitely keep the demonic tutor, and make them show me their 1 out maindeck.  Remember this is game 1, and they don't have 4x CoV yet.  DT -> TIME WALK is the play I'd choose to make.  If all they have is vamp, you win anyway.  If they have DT, they have to also have lotus.  If all they kept is bazaar it's more than likely GG anyway.

[49 Cents]

Option 3. This way you have a Colossus in play, and a DT in hand. If they don't find and play a bouncespell, you win. And what is the chance they have that bouncespell, anyway? They play a single Chain of Vapor!

Now let's think about what happens when they manage to find and play Chain of Vapor on turn one, even if it's very unlikely: You still have a Demonic Tutor in hand. You can get a Gifts for instance, for some extremely complicated formation that can set up an Will + Brainstorm + Tinker turn, or something else someone better than me is going to come up with.

I really like my chances with option 3. Simply because I don't like Ichorid's chances on Therapy + Creature + 2 black mana (and then they would still have to deal with Colossus) or having the Chain in hand, or having Tutor for Chain plus enough mana (plus card drawing if it's a Vamp/Seal).

[Grand Inquisitor]

Option 2.

Unless I am misunderstanding the utility cards available to the gifts player (via DT), option 2 is strictly superior to option option 1.  They both allow FoW protection, and I believe the chances you don't draw a black source (making the kill turn 4) are greater than the chances DT will give you access to something better than Time Walk.

Weighing option 2 vs. 3 is not very difficult in my opinion either.  I probably haven't tested friggorid as much as others, but my experience is that it would be hard pressed to win in two turns, especially if it had to swing into DSC for one of them.  If we can dismiss frig racing a turn 1 darksteel as a low probability event, than we are weighing whether the additional turn afforded the ichorid player is more threatening than a FoW to stop whatever they may put forward (including therapy).

I see this evaluation depending on four things:

1) Whether they can remove the DSC (don't forget they have balance too).
2) Whether they can bypass FoW
3) Whether they can tutor for one of the above
4) How mana acceleration allows them to do more of these things earlier in the game

Comparing options 2 & 3 in order to choose which of these possibilities to mitigate is the key to the decision here.

Starting from the end, Friggorid has access to as much acceleration (in the blue and black colors) as vintage has to offer.  Also, since you're not likely to FoW a Lotus or Mox (I don't think the amount of information this scenario gives promotes that decision), you can't affect their use of it if they do draw it.  Assuming the worst case, they may be able to do some combination of the first three points on the first turn if they draw acceleration.  The implication of this is that limiting them to one less turn isn't as much of an advantage as making sure you have answers to whatever they try to do.  The exception is if they have acceleration and bazaar (and one of therapy, tutor, removal), which allows them to see an additional two cards with the extra turn.

This is an interesting point, since it begs the question of whether giving them an additional turn is like giving them the extra time to abuse a tutor to supplement whatever they don't have (removal or therapy).  I'll take this gamble, since bazaar further limits very precious resources.  On the draw, if they bazaar twice, this means they'll be left with six cards which must consist of a combination of: land, acceleration, and two of: removal/tutor/therapy.  If they have one less turn, but no FoW, they get to use 9 cards.  I'd argue that bazaar doesn't show them any additional cards, since this could just as easily be brainstorm, which would not cost them card resources.  This argument fails when they want to brainstorm on their 2nd turn (in order to dig the deepest), and they don't have therapy, so they need to brainstorm, therapy, and chain/balance all  in one turn.

Moving on to point three, if they need to tutor (either for CoV or for therapy), then it's likely they aren't executing the removal of DSC until their second turn.  It's possible they have: Lotus, DT, Therapy, and land, but this hand will beat any strategy you have available.  What this means, is that your topdeck (or next two TD's) will likely play a roll.  Mana drain (not to mention time walk, Brainstorm into Lotus, Will, etc,) will allow you to win through their tutor play.  Additionally, they may hedge against mana drain instead of fow, and opt for a turn 1 CoV/Balance instead of trying to determine what counter you have (with UU available, remember).

Points two and one are simple matters of probability.  I'm not going to do the math, but I would say this leads me to the conclusion that card selection (not card quantity) is the real issue here.  Because of their acceleration and the low cost of their threats and tutors it is much more important what they have, as opposed to when they have it.  Since additional turns don't affect card selection to as large a degree as having FoW does, I think option 2 is boss.

[nataz]

On the draw, if they bazaar twice, this means they'll be left with six cards which must consist of a combination of: land, acceleration, and two of: removal/tutor/therapy.

Unless I'm reading this wrong, thats not quite right. Therp doesn't have to be in hand, and in fact is better in the GY anyways at this point in time since you are going to need your mana to cast CoV/tutor.

My argument basically boils down to this.

the marginal % you gain by keeping an active FOW for the possible chain of vapor is not worth the expense of an extra turn considering  that ichorid runs up to 8 free discard spells, 4 of which can be played from the gy making bazaar wicked dangerous it.effectivly not shrinking the number of useable cards, and the fact that it can reasonably see in that extra turn another 7 cards (draw, bazaar, Brainstorm).

Ichorid doesn't really do anything the first turn. It can't attack, and if it does manage to pull off a CA disadvantage tutor it prob does not have the mana to draw it and cast it. Figure at best you are looking at a ~25% that they have the chain, but you still have demonic for tormods or whatever, and a ~75% to just flat out win*.
   
(prob of 2 chain in opening 8 ~25%ish)

[Harlequin]

I think #3 makes the most sense if you are very confindent in your scouting.  As said before, if they have a playable chain of vapor in thier opening hand + 1 draw then your DSC is bounced.  As said before, there is also a chance that they will have castable cabal + chain (however remote it may be) which makes options 1 and 2 not good either (because they cabal for FoW and then chain next turn). 

I like #3 for 2 reasons, the most likely scenario is: the ichorid player gets 1 turn.  If they do not have or have access to cast chain on thier turn 1, they loose (because durring your turn 2 you swing and DT for timewalk).  the second reason I like it is that its the only option that does not cut your access to DT.  I would much rather have DT for Tormod's or Fire/Ice or even Ancestral to ensure my ability to recover from the turn 1 bounce. 

Because they only have 1 turn to answer DSC you've effectively all but killed Vamp and Imp Seal.  to me, the more untap steps they get, the easier it will be for them to find or get Cabal + Chian.


Let me extend this 1 step further,  for those of you who would choose #2.  Your oppoent opens with Land (capable of or ), Lotus.  Do you force the Lotus (assuming they have Cabal + Tutor) or wait (assuming they have Chain + tutor)?

[roberts91rom]

I say a quick look at statistics determines the best play. Worst-case scenario (which is what we must always be prepared for) provides Ichorid with 4xCoV, Vamp, Myst, Seal, Demonic. That is 8xCov. (semantics ) That provides an 8/60 chance of getting one of them based on each card drawn. Assuming on the draw Ichorid sees 8xGeneric Cards. Without using fancy calculations or using up too much valueable tournament time, you can assume they have a 64/60 chance of getting one of those 8 cards. Using time-efficient albeit inaccurate statistics, you can assume the Ichorid player has an answer for your Colossus.

Next worst-case scenario is that they also get the discard they need to take out FoW. 4xTherapy and let us assume another 4xUnmask/Duress/Generic discard. (Which is not all that unlikely) This gives the same outcome as before, though I personally doubt anything other than Unmask would be run in Ichorid and even that I doubt. (Way to remove more black cards that you need for Chrome/Ichorid ) Given these quick statistics I would choose play #3, even though FoW backup is tempting at first. Demonic Tutor in CS for mah Crypt TYVMKTHXGG. Odds of getting a welder to shake the Ichorid player's hand, good.

[Harlequin]

 you can assume they have a 64/60 chance of getting one of those 8 cards.

I hate to break it to you but thats more than a 100% chance.  To roughly estimate "Expectation" basically you've got 8/60 wich reduces to 2/15 or rougly 1/8th chance to draw it on a single draw. So for rough estimation your looking at an expected number in thier opening hand to be 1.  The odds of drawing 1 is not 100% is actually roughly 8*(1/8)(7/8)^7 which is aproximately 40%.  Now thats assumeing they kept ANY hand.  So really what your looking at is about 6 outa the 8 cards could potentially be Chain or a tutor (assuming they kept a mana and a discard outlet in the opening hand).  So now your realling the realm of around a 1 in 3 chance of them finding a chain assuming they run 4 tutors and 4 chains.


Again that is restricting a "keepable" opening hand as an automatic chance to draw 1 mana and 1 discard outlet... Which theoretically should over estimate the odds more than the "non-replacement" effect of permutition. 

Realistically you've probably go less than a 10% chance they can cast a turn 1 Chain of vapor against a randomly selected build of Ichorid.  This also factors in the distribrution of decks running X number of Chains.  So not knowing the deck well enough I would venture to guess that were looking at something like:

x  -- Pr(X=x)
-------------
0    < 10%
1    > 60%
2    < 10%
3    < 10%
4    < 10%

The point being, If your really going to play the "odds" game, you should factor in the probablilty of your opponent running X number of chains.  So in the above example, a player runing 4 chains has a 30% chance to cast a turn 1 chain of vapor, you would factor that by an additional 10% because you think only 10% of all ichorid players would play 4 chains.  So your looking at a proportion of probality of around 3% for that scenario.   To extrapolate this:

x - Pr(X=x) - Pr( Chains turn 1 | X=x)
--------------------------------------
0    < 10%     0%
1    > 60%     ~10%
2    < 10%     ~12%
3    < 10%     ~20%
4    < 10%     ~30%

So your final "odds" are 0 + 6% + 1.2% + 2% + 3% = 10.2%

That's likely over estimateing your opponents opening hand.   So.. I agree that #3 is correct, but thats a bit more "fuzzy number logic" to back it.

[roberts91rom]

I don't think that on turn one you should pull out a piece of paper and a calculator and start punching in numbers. Assuming your in a tournament then you need some quick and sketchy calculations, or your opponent will think that you are either crazy or cheating.

[Harlequin]

I don't think that on turn one you should pull out a piece of paper and a calculator and start punching in numbers. Assuming your in a tournament then you need some quick and sketchy calculations, or your opponent will think that you are either crazy or cheating.

Hehe, Point taken.  But thats why examples like this on forums or at home are really good to do.  If you can work these examples out outside of the game, then when you get into a mathematically sticky situation you will have a more accurate guestimation.

For example I know (from running deck stats till my brain hurts) that if you run 8 of a card (card group I guess) your looking at roughly 30%-40% chance to see 1 in your opening hand, based on how aggressively you mulligan.  I did the math behind it to be sure, but In a game, those type of statistics are in the back of my mind.  Not as exact numbers, but rough estimates.

[warble]

I'm with Rich here, turn 3 kill with FoW backup over a turn 2 unprotected kill.  I want to make my opponent play perfectly to kill me, and that option forces that read.  The outs would be:
turn 1 duress + turn 1 chain of vapor (4cards)
turn 1 cabal therapy naming force + turn 2 chain of vapor (3cards)
turn 1 duress + turn 2 duress + chain of vapor (4cards)
turn 1 tutor + turn 2 cabal therapy naming force + turn 2 chain of vapor (4cards)
turn 1 chain of vapor + turn 2 chain of vapor (3cards)
Most of those are pretty nutty hands because the Ichorid player would also likely have another tutor and a dredge card or bazaar, and that's an amazing draw that you would not expect (6 of 7 cards are usable on turns 1/2) given ichorid has lots of creatures.
The alternative really just says "do you have chain of vapor?  scoop." which is only forcing 1 card in the hand to be chain...and against decks playing tinker colossus I love keeping hands with chain of vapor.

[Harlequin]

The alternative really just says "do you have chain of vapor?  scoop." which is only forcing 1 card in the hand to be chain...and against decks playing tinker colossus I love keeping hands with chain of vapor.

I'm not sure I agree with that.  #3 is the only hand that actually gives you a chance to play a contingency card... namely DT.  In 1 and 2, your plan is Tinker with backer... against a deck running plenty of Duress effects.  If they do, then you really do loose because you have to find another win or an answer in topdeck mode.  If you go with 3 then you have either DT for Timewalk if all goes well, and DT -> answer if something goes badly.

[meadbert]

The trouble with this plan is the lack of a second black Mana Source.  Your opponent could easily just Chains the Colossus and then Duress you next turn and take your Demonic Tutor leaving you with nothing.  Either plan has its risks.  If you had a second black source then I would say keep Tutor for sure.

The more I read this, the more I think pitching petal is the correct play.  This leaves you with 3 FOWs and enough mana to hardcast them.  It is risky in that Ichorid could therapy all three out of your hand, but without DSC in play Ichorid is not worried about Force of Will so he will name Brainstorm or some other card.  So I say play turn 2 Tinker with double Force backup and the ability to Demonic Tutor for Solutions/Yawg Will later if something goes wrong.

[Harlequin]

I actually thought about the "castability" of FOW, but because you sac an artifact with tinker, and then chuck one to thist, even if you keep the crypt you only have 2UU.

The "take demonic" is an interesting arguement.  But I don't think it changes the "do you have chain or not" argument.  But it does interesting cause the Duress + chain argument to be a wash outcome between #2 and #3.  However it still tends to hold water agains the Therapy + Chain argument.  So perhaps the difference is less noticeable But I think the #3 option gives you good odds against what a typical deck has to offer.  Your basically placeing a bet.  Do you think...

A) they can get Discard + Chain in two draws and 1 untap step.
B) they have a chain in hand, or --- have a discard and can get a chain in 1 untap and 1 draw after that.

[roberts91rom]

@Meadbert: Um, if he has a CoV in his hand, he won't name brainstorm with cabal therapy. In addition to that, the BEST play if you see somebody cast TfK turn 1 is to name FoW when you are playing Therapy. Why would he name something else? If you run TfK you automatically are running FoW, to which he names FoW and rips your hand apart. You also do not have a black mana source outside of Petal. So I don't know where you will get your Solutions/Yawgwill with no other draw/tutor in your hand. In addition to this if the Ichorid player can flash the therapy, he will name tinker and GG you. Option 3 means that even if he plays and flashes therapy you still have Demonic Tutor in your hand. You then fetch whatever seals the game with DT and shake the Ichorid player's hand.

@Warble: By taking option #3, I get a turn 3 kill as well, except Colossus is only in play 1 turn. Any tutors the Ichorid player has, he will crack on turn 1 to fetch what he needs to win. He will NOT know that next turn I am smashing face with an 11/11. Your method leaves you with a hand of: FoW, FoW and DSC in play. You then pass the turn and he goes: ANY discard spell, tutor for CoV/Cast CoV/Balance/Land, Mox Time Walk/any number of easily attainable things. Against Option 3 he has 1 turn WITHOUT tutors (Since he used any he had on turn 1) to stop DSC. That means he needs to either start with, or draw CoV or Balance, if he runs it. In addition to this I can use Demonic Tutor to fetch...say, FoW. Or Ancestral. Or Tormod's. Or Time Walk. Tormod's stops any Therapy flashbacks. Ancestral fills my grip with at least 1 blue card/brokeness. Time Walk gives me the same speed as you. And a second FoW gives me the same hand you would have had. The key difference however, is that my hand does not fold to any discard spell, and my hand utilizes my mana to it's fullest potential. All a hand of 2xFoW does is pray for mercy. By casting Tinker turn 1 all you do is give your opponent more knowledge and time to answer your threat.

[Jacob Orlove]

For example I know (from running deck stats till my brain hurts) that if you run 8 of a card (card group I guess) your looking at roughly 30%-40% chance to see 1 in your opening hand, based on how aggressively you mulligan.  I did the math behind it to be sure, but In a game, those type of statistics are in the back of my mind.  Not as exact numbers, but rough estimates.

That's a completely worthless statistic, by the way. What we want are the odds of them having at least one of the card in question, not exactly one. You're ignoring the (significant) odds of them drawing two or three or more.

The easy math is to calculate the odds of them drawing none of the card, then subtract that from 100% to find the odds of them getting at least one copy. Here are some examples:

For a 4-of, they have 56 cards that are not that 4-of. The odds of them not drawing any copies for their first draw are 56/60. For the first and second draw it is the product of the probabilities, or (56/60)(55/59)--remember that each draw affects the cards remaining. The odds of them drawing no copies of the card in question in 8 draws are therefore (56/60)(55/59)...(49/53) = 55.5%
Thus, the odds of them seeing at least one of a given 4-of in 8 cards is 44.5% (in 7 cards, it's almost exactly 40%).

For an 8-of, the calculations are similar: (52/60)(51/59)...(45/53) = 29.4%

Thus, the odds of them seeing a given 8-of in their first 8 cards are approximately 70%.

[nataz]

The easy math is to calculate the odds of them drawing none of the card, then subtract that from 100% to find the odds of them getting at least one copy. Here are some examples:

which incidentally is how I came up with ~25% drawing a 2-of (Chain) in the opening 8

Figure between bazaar and brainstorm the ichorid deck is going to see a significant number of cards in the next turn upping the chance of them drawing chain dramatically.

Finding and casting the chain is all they have to worry about. Odds are the discard will just show up w/ very little effort + no mana cost sometime before they cast it.

:. more turns to find chain = bad

[Mantis]

I'm really doubting about this, I think both option 2 and 3 are very viable options. Option 1 isn't really the best one I think, because as said before you throw away your Lotus Petal making Demonic Tutor unusable.

Pitching your FoW's and go for the fast route might just be the best option, as you can count on them using Therapy or Duress and naming FoW. Now they might name a different card then FoW as you've just pitched two of them, but who is going to name Demonic Tutor? Besides if you let the discard effect resolve they might even say Tinker and you are in deep shit. But countering the discard effect is not worth it either. You limit their outs by going for the much faster kill. If they don't have blue source + Chain of Vapor in their opening grip then you win on the spot, saving yourself a lot of trouble.

[Purple Hat]

it doesn't look like it but I agree with the point made earlier that keeping FOW is really the all in tinker option here....it's extremely counter intuitive, but if you pitch DT or your black source you don't have the option of altering your game plan, you are now comitted to DSC.  While that's not a bad place to be you're screwed if something goes wrong with him.  DT allows you to #1 win the game next turn, and #2 not lose the game next turn.  Force of Will doesn't.  I Think 3 is clearly the right option but then I'm a horribly over aggressive player so that's probably wrong.

Asside from the math on chain, your opponent also doesn't have to have a blue mana source.  Ichorid's primary game plan revolves around never HAVING to resolve a spell, as such it doesn't play much mana and thus actually does face the non negligible chances of having a keepable hand with no blue source even with 5 color lands.

hale

[Smmenen]

I think I may have a better play than the three plays listed that does the same thing as Rich Shay’s play (being able to protect your Colossus) but leaves you with no vulnerability to turn one Cabal Therapy, Strip Mine, or a subsequent Chain of Vapor.  However, it does open you up to turn one Chalice. 

The sum of it is: discard double force, tinker up Lotus, turn two DT for Yawg Will.  It looks like this:

Discard: FoW, FoW

Play Petal.

Play Academy.

Tap Academy and play Tinker (sacrificing the Mana Crypt) for Black Lotus.  Pass.

They get one turn.

T2:
Draw a card.

Tap Sapphire, Sac Lotus and Lotus Petal and play DT and Yawg Will.

Replay Lotus and Petal and Mana Crypt.

Tap Academy for UUUU.  You have ten mana to play:
Tinker, Thirst, DT, and Time Walk. 

You’ll then Walk and see another card (remember you were holding FoW), so you’ll have seen five more cards that way and you’ll probably have double counter back up for their third turn.  (Drain and FoW).

The only flaw in this series of plays is Chalice.  Turn one Therapy will not name DT.  If you tinker for Lotus, they’ll name Will or Force of Will. 

Wadda ya think?

Taking the options you presented, however, I think GI has framed the question correctly, but improperly weighed the costs/benefits.  I think option three is better than option two because I think giving Ichorid more time is worse than having FoW.  By turn two they can therapy from the yard and then Chain from hand.