Rochester: Metagame Analysis

[Sean Ryan]

I wanted to start a community discussion on what impact the Rochester results will have on the metagame.

* The first thing that strike me about Rochester is the prevalence of combo.  Day 1 half the T8 decks were Long & Dragon.  Day 2, was a a bit more on par with 2/8 being combo.  Also, the surprise showing of Bomberman putting placing 3/16 out of both top 8s is highly impressive for a deck that has been under everyones radar.  While Bomberman is not combo, it does have  a fairly strong combo element being housed in a control shell.  Personally I think this is very healthy for the metagame to have a stronger combo presence to help balance out Drains.  The effect of this should actually allow more decks archetypes to be competitive, not less. 

*This leads into my next point, S.S. the break out aggro-control deck that won day 1 and is poised to make a big splash on the metagame.  In a metagame where combo and Drains are both fighting each other for supremacy, aggro-control has an opening.   It's my prediction that aggro-control is going to make a large showing after Rochester which will then open the door for Workshops to become more competitive.  The aggro-control deck that can best handle the metagame without folding to Stax should come out on top.

* IMHO it's a good thing that metagame decks won both days.  First off this shows that we have a very strong, cohesive metagame with 2 strong but different decks in both combo (Long/Dragon) and Drains(CS,Bomberman, Giftz).  It also shows that for as powerful and broken as these decks are, they can still be trumped with the right opposing strategy and a good pilot. 

* If we look a little further down into the top 16 we find some interesting results as well.  Day 1 had 2 combo decks(I.T.) and 2 Draindecks (T1T, CS), 1 very cool Workshop deck by Mr. Waterbury himself, but most surprisingly, 3 aggro-control decks that, no offense to the players, don't even look optimized.  I think this data indicates a gap for good, highly tuned aggro-control to have an effect.  Day 2 was a little more typical of a Northeastern T16 with half the decks being Drain based, yet diverse(CS, T1T, Oath, Scepter Control).  Still here we see a u/w Fish deck and a u/g/w Madness deck that look like they both could use some improving, but still placed in the top 16.

* To summarize the Top16:

Day 1

38% or 6/16 Combo
31% or 5/16  Drain based
25% or 4/16 Aggro-Control (1st PLACE)
06% or 1/16 Workshop

Day 2

56% or 9/16 Drain based
25% or 4/16 Combo
13% or 2/16 Aggro-control
06% or 1/16 Stax (1st PLACE)

I hope this information is useful and generates discussion.

Thanks
Sean

Just an aside--THIS is how people should discuss the position of different decks in the metagame, not with ridiculous tier discussions. Well done, and carry on.
-Jacob

[cheeseman202000]

Speaking of combo, just how does the bomberman deck win after it "combos" out?  I would think that a single pyrite spellbomb maindeck could be useful.

[Moxlotus]

Speaking of combo, just how does the bomberman deck win after it "combos" out?  I would think that a single pyrite spellbomb maindeck could be useful.

You play every guy on the table, time walk (if you haven't), remove any threat on the table with Aether spellbomb, and pass turn with 7 counters in hand.  That counts combo--just not one that directly wins the game.

[AJFirst]

Here's my prediction of what the series of events that will follow rochester will be (specifically to the midwest):

1. Aggro Control is going to start going nuts, and Shops will see a little more play.
2. Oath and Stax will explode due to A/C's incline.
3. GrimLong will start looking like TPS/IT, and Slaver will become insane.
4. Stax dies out again, and GrimLong reverts.
5. It's the trifecta again: Chalice Oath, Control Slaver, GrimLong. Just like the metagame right now.

Gifts will also be nuts, at least for a little bit. Either Repeal Gifts during #2, or #4 if Stax dies and GrimLong doesn't change back quickly enough. Those are my thoughts, what about you guys?
-AJ

[BreathWeapon]

Could some one explain to me what made Bomberman and SS good choices for the metagame? I've been testing both of these decks, and neither of them have proven to be satisfactory for me (although I will admit I'm still learning all of the subtleties of Bomberman)

Bomberman seems to lose to Ichorid, because it has to answer Leyline and Chalice of the Void or become Bear.dec, and SS has been losing to both Oath, Ichorid and Stax with regularity (as well as scrub aggro).

What am I missing?

[AJFirst]

They both crush Drain-Based decks and most combo, which make up an insane percentage of the metagame.
-AJ

[BreathWeapon]

They both crush Drain-Based decks and most combo, which make up an insane percentage of the metagame.
-AJ

Granted SS does well against Gifts, Slaver and Tendrils but it is horrible vs Oath, which was one of the most "hyped" decks before Rochester. I wouldn't say Bomberman crushes Drains or Rituals, tho' it is a decent deck and rather customizable.

[Chiz]

Could some one explain to me what made Bomberman and SS good choices for the metagame? I've been testing both of these decks, and neither of them have proven to be satisfactory for me (although I will admit I'm still learning all of the subtleties of Bomberman)

Bomberman seems to lose to Ichorid, because it has to answer Leyline and Chalice of the Void or become Bear.dec, and SS has been losing to both Oath, Ichorid and Stax with regularity (as well as scrub aggro).

What am I missing?

The version of Bomberman I played day2 will have some trouble with Ichorid I think (I didn't playtested it against...). But my UWb version I played day1 usually wins post-sideboard. The way it wins? Removing alsmost all wins conditions of Ichorids with Crypt / Furnaces / Swords / Needle. You have Echoing Truth / Disenchant to deal with Leyline and CotV, Disenchant EoT on CotV and Trinket Mage at my turn (For Crypt), that's usually game.
And by the way, when you removed somes Ichorids / Ashen Ghoul, having a 2/4 to block every turn, that's pretty good against Ichorids.

The UW version we played (And made top8 with) is better against Oath and Dragon, because that what we wanted. We didn't feared Ichorids that much, because we didn't expect to see it and there wasn't that much both days...

[BreathWeapon]

I think I'm starting to get the hang of it against Ichorid, I added black and have a lot more success with the deck now that I can Will, Demonic, Vampiric and find cards like Tinker->Colossus, Balance and a SB Darkblast. Engineered Explosives is also nothing short of game breaking in a number of aspects, answering Chalice if you can play it off a Library of Alexandria or Sol/Vault/Crypt, Needle is also amazing against Bazaar and Ghoul.

How many multiples of Aether Spellbomb do you want/need?

[dicemanx]

They both crush Drain-Based decks and most combo, which make up an insane percentage of the metagame.
-AJ

Granted SS does well against Gifts, Slaver and Tendrils but it is horrible vs Oath, which was one of the most "hyped" decks before Rochester.

Apparently, just the opposite is true according to ICBM playtesting results. We have to be careful when trying to analyze decks based on theoretical considerations - looks can be deceiving, and percentages can get inflated too easily (deck X will crush deck Y but lose to deck Z etc).

[Tha Gunslinga]

They both crush Drain-Based decks and most combo, which make up an insane percentage of the metagame.
-AJ

Granted SS does well against Gifts, Slaver and Tendrils but it is horrible vs Oath

Postboard it can tempo Oath out really well.

[BreathWeapon]

They both crush Drain-Based decks and most combo, which make up an insane percentage of the metagame.
-AJ

Granted SS does well against Gifts, Slaver and Tendrils but it is horrible vs Oath

Postboard it can tempo Oath out really well.

It's possible I'm just too used to UWB Fish or EBA and having Mage, Swords and Seal in the SB to deal with Oath. Still, a U/b Aggro-Control deck with 10 turn clocks shouldn't be good against Oath, if the Oath player's is smart enough to dedicate some SB slots to the match up like Massacre, Pyroclams or Darkblast etc. People were probably just trying to play the beat down with Oath instead of the control deck and fell right into SS's tempo snare.

[Moxlotus]

They both crush Drain-Based decks and most combo, which make up an insane percentage of the metagame.
-AJ

Granted SS does well against Gifts, Slaver and Tendrils but it is horrible vs Oath

Postboard it can tempo Oath out really well.

It's possible I'm just too used to UWB Fish or EBA and having Mage, Swords and Seal in the SB to deal with Oath. Still, a U/b Aggro-Control deck with 10 turn clocks shouldn't be good against Oath, if the Oath player's is smart enough to dedicate some SB slots to the match up like Massacre, Pyroclams or Darkblast etc. People were probably just trying to play the beat down with Oath instead of the control deck and fell right into SS's tempo snare.

Oath boarding Massacre vs. SS would be the worst play ever.  Those "people trying to play beatdown with Oath" were on ICBM, the guys who have been playing their control version of Oath for many months.  I seriously doubt they played their deck incorrectly.

[AngryPheldagrif]

One of SS's advantages was that Oath pilots present were not quite the cream of the crop (myself and my brother both missed Rochester and I@n chose to play SS himself) and more importantly that they had no bloody clue how to face a deck like SS and lost because of it.

I do not consider SS a bad matchup for Oath personally, but in general it isn't a favorite and not one I'm surprised to see people losing.

Oath playing the game 1 beatdown is (in my esteemed opinion as well as my testing results) exactly what one should be doing. Simply put, control is meaningless against a deck that aims to create a prison-like situation. If SS ever flips Erayo before Oath resolves Oath is going to lose, plain and simple. All you need to do is force through one Oath of Druids and counter Rushing River and Engineered Explosives. You don't even need to worry about Orchard so much since their engine is creature-based.

Oath's main goal should be to crush game 1 and try to trump their hate 2 and 3. Your best bet pre and post-board is Chalice for 1 which shuts off 23 cards between main and side including a needed half of their SSS-killing strategy.

[BreathWeapon]

They both crush Drain-Based decks and most combo, which make up an insane percentage of the metagame.
-AJ

Granted SS does well against Gifts, Slaver and Tendrils but it is horrible vs Oath

Postboard it can tempo Oath out really well.

It's possible I'm just too used to UWB Fish or EBA and having Mage, Swords and Seal in the SB to deal with Oath. Still, a U/b Aggro-Control deck with 10 turn clocks shouldn't be good against Oath, if the Oath player's is smart enough to dedicate some SB slots to the match up like Massacre, Pyroclams or Darkblast etc. People were probably just trying to play the beat down with Oath instead of the control deck and fell right into SS's tempo snare.

Oath boarding Massacre vs. SS would be the worst play ever.  Those "people trying to play beatdown with Oath" were on ICBM, the guys who have been playing their control version of Oath for many months.  I seriously doubt they played their deck incorrectly.

Obviously, I included Massacre along with Pyroclams and Darkblast because they fit the category of the card in question. And I think it is highly likely that the Oath players misplayed, considering none of them had any match up experience against SS.

@Angry

Is Erayo that much of a threat? I just found myself playing a Mox, having it countered, and then going about my business.

[AngryPheldagrif]

That can be the case, however you rarely have Moxen to blow beyond the first turn or 2 and saving them for Erayo means they aren't helping pay for your spells while SS strips and Stifles away your land. Also, Erayo turns their counters into 2-for-1s.

[The_spooky_kid]

I think that the success of SS will effect the metagame.  Like Ichorid in Richmond, no body knew about the deck fully, and in turn no body knew how to play against the deck giving it a huge advantage.  SS was a carefully constructed deck that was metagamed very well.  I do think that it's popularity will grow and in turn other decks will have to adjust to it. How so?  Stifle in general has become a bigger threat, so the number of fetches might drop from 5 to 4.  More creature distruction may make its way to sbs etc. 

As for stax dying, It won't plain and simple.  It was the perfect deck for me to play on day 2 because all of the artifact hate for it was relatively gone.  With this in mind stax imo will make a resurgence and be on top like it was in the past.