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Author Topic: [Single Card Discussion] Hidden Herd / Conditional Creatures  (Read 3050 times)
AmbivalentDuck
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« on: July 06, 2009, 04:27:21 pm »

DISCLAIMER: I IN NO WAY ADVOCATE THAT ANYBODY PLAY THIS CARD, EVER.

The question at hand is what it takes for a creature whose power you can't control to be good.

Hidden Herd
CC = G
Enchantment
When an opponent plays a nonbasic land, if Hidden Herd is an enchantment, Hidden Herd becomes a 3/3 Beast creature.

In modern Vintage, an opponent's development will be seriously stunted if they play around it since most of our mana bases consist almost entirely of non-basic lands.  So, it's basically a 3/3 for G unless you played it late AND actually need it to be (ie. to kill).  I don't think it's good enough to see play.  However, it raises an interesting question: what would it take to make it playable?

At 10/10, it would be a potent turn 1 play that let the opponent choose between not having on-color mana and a turn 2 (Berserk, etc) or 3 death.  So, clearly there's some threshold at which conditional isn't damning so long as:
-The creature creates a relevant clock.
-Playing around it meaningfully stunts development.

Hidden Herd fails the relevant clock test.  Even accompanied by a turn 2 Goyf, 0+3+(3+2.5ish)+(3+4ish)+(3+5ish) just barely eeks out a turn 4-5 kill.  Far too slow for this format.

Applying the same test to Mold Adder, if it comes down turn 1 and the opponent plays one setup spell per turn *and* counters every attempt to interact that you play:
0+2+4+6+8 = turn 5 kill.  Your opponent has no need to play around the Adder based on clock alone.

I've written out this thought experiment not to say that we should play these cards, but to correct what I perceive as a misconception.  Both Hidden Herd and Mold Adder are meaningfully stunting if played around.  But nobody is going to play around them because they don't need to.  In both cases, it's not the conditional part of the card that majorly fails: it's the small butt that doesn't hinder the opponent's game plan.

Hidden Guerillas and Gibbons actually border on a meaningful clock.  Stax certainly will not play around the Guerillas (raising an interest question regarding their SB playability), though both are trivially played around or ignored by both combo and Tez.  Oath may even go out of its way to activate them.  Fish will play around both.  These creatures fail because they fail to meaningfully stunt development.  Keeping a Mox off the table for a few turns, or making an opponent wait to tutor up Tinker/Will are not meaningful given their other lines of play.


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evouga
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« Reply #1 on: July 06, 2009, 06:58:17 pm »

As a general principle, cards that give you many options tend to be very good, and conversely cards that take away your options and give them to your opponent tend to be bad. When you play Hidden Herd, it's up to your opponent whether he'd rather give you a 3/3 or stop playing nonbasic lands, and you can bet that he'll choose the former when he's about to go off regardless of your creatures, and the latter when all you need is a little extra damage to eke out a win. This is the same reason Browbeat and friends are surprisingly worse in practice than they look on paper.

I would never play Hidden Herd if it were anything less than 6/6. At 6/6 or 7/7 I would be willing to test it seriously, but even as a potential three-turn clock I suspect it would be dead often enough to not be worth playing.
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FlyFlySideOfFry
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« Reply #2 on: July 06, 2009, 08:00:31 pm »

As a general principle, cards that give you many options tend to be very good, and conversely cards that take away your options and give them to your opponent tend to be bad. When you play Hidden Herd, it's up to your opponent whether he'd rather give you a 3/3 or stop playing nonbasic lands, and you can bet that he'll choose the former when he's about to go off regardless of your creatures, and the latter when all you need is a little extra damage to eke out a win. This is the same reason Browbeat and friends are surprisingly worse in practice than they look on paper.

I would never play Hidden Herd if it were anything less than 6/6. At 6/6 or 7/7 I would be willing to test it seriously, but even as a potential three-turn clock I suspect it would be dead often enough to not be worth playing.

Lol that is such BS if Hidden Herd was a 4/3-4 it would be run for the same reason that goyf is run. The difference between 3 and 4 power is 2 whole turns assuming its by itself. If it was a 7/7 it would be restricted rofl do you not know what Tinker does?
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nineisnoone
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« Reply #3 on: July 06, 2009, 08:44:23 pm »

Hidden Herd fails the relevant clock test.  Even accompanied by a turn 2 Goyf, 0+3+(3+2.5ish)+(3+4ish)+(3+5ish) just barely eeks out a turn 4-5 kill.  Far too slow for this format.

Did you just make that test up?  I've never heard of that, or at least I've never heard of a turn 4 aggro deck kill as being too slow for Vintage.  I'd take that for an aggro deck.

This is the list I just won a pearl with at Pastimes this weekend.I'm very satisfied with my maindeck, and although I don't think of my deck as TMWA I'm sure there are people who would.  It's basically my old RG deck from SCG chicago shifted for the current meta and to include the ridiculous cards from shards.

3 Plateau
4 Tin Street Hooligan
3 Windsweapt Heath
3 Vexing Shusher
3 Savannah
1 Black Lotus
3 Wooded Foothills
3 Taiga
3 Skullclamp
4 Wild Nacatl
4 Ethersworn Canonist
4 Aether Vial
4 Swords to plowshares
1 Mox Emerald
1 Mox Pearl
1 Mox Ruby
1 Mountain
4 Mog Fanatic
4 Tarmogoyf
3 Kird Ape
2 Gaddock Teeg
1 Forest

a 3/3 and a 2/3.  not a list I'd play now (b/c of vulnerability to Null and no way to deal with Tezz main), but just refuting your statement that a 3/3 for 1 would not be playable. 

While perhaps the hidden cards are more playable then you'd think, the main problem with them is that they are not effective across the board.  Hidden Heard will often do nothing turn 2 on the draw if they played out 2 lands already and either don't find/don't need a third.  Not all decks are really going to play instants (Gibbons) or artifacts (Guerillas).  This means they end up being something of sideboard cards.  And against control decks of workshop decks, you'll probably be looking to do something better than playing more beaters. 

Though a 5/3 for 1 against stax is tempting....
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AmbivalentDuck
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« Reply #4 on: July 06, 2009, 09:30:11 pm »

Hidden Herd fails the relevant clock test.
Did you just make that test up?  

Yes.  By itself, Herd isn't much of a clock.  And the example of Herd + Goyf lets combo and Tez treat you as a goldfish.  The WGR list that you cite honestly looks suboptimal.  It only interacts through Canonist and Teeg, so I have to question the meta it won in.

Top 8 in no particular order:

Jamison Bryant (RWG beats)
Danny Friedman (Thirst Gifts-style Tezzeret)
Brian Fisher (Impulse Gifts-style Tezzeret)
Mike Solymossy (Thirst Gifts-style Tezzeret)
Josh Rayden (Gifts-style Tezzeret)
Tony Lyskawa (BUG Fish)
Benjamin Carp (DEEZ NOUGHTS)
Jesus Roxas (UWB Fish)

Top 8:
Benjamin beat Josh
Tony beat Danny
Brian beat Mike
Jamison beat Jesus

Top 4:
Jamison beat Benjamin
Brian beat Tony

Finals:
Jamison Bryant beat Brian Fisher.

Congratulations to Jamison Bryant for winning the Mox.

There were 17 people.  Metagame breakdown:
1 DEEZ NOUGHTS
1 Affinity
5 Gifts-style Tezzeret
2 RWG Beats
1 BUG Fish
2 MUD
1 MaskNought
1 UWB Fish
1 UB Storm (might have been Ad Nauseam, but I didn't see them)
1 UB PlatPact
1 RBU combo, might have been Ad Nauseam, but I didn't see them)

It looks like he beat two Fish-style decks to get into the top two.  So, Kird Ape may have been an all-star.  He certainly has a strong game against Affinity, Platz, and other Fish.  Note 4 Tin-Street + Vexing Shushers.

Anyways, a turn 4-5 kill is too slow if it doesn't interact.  I've heard the format described as kill faster or interact better and beating with vanilla creatures to kill turn 5 is neither.
« Last Edit: July 06, 2009, 09:33:47 pm by AmbivalentDuck » Logged

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nineisnoone
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« Reply #5 on: July 06, 2009, 11:57:33 pm »

Uhhh... you completely neglected the fact that I pointed that fact out....

a 3/3 and a 2/3.  not a list I'd play now (b/c of vulnerability to Null and no way to deal with Tezz main), but just refuting your statement that a 3/3 for 1 would not be playable.

And as far as....

Anyways, a turn 4-5 kill is too slow if it doesn't interact.  I've heard the format described as kill faster or interact better and beating with vanilla creatures to kill turn 5 is neither.

Are we suddenly presuming that the other 52 cards in the decks are mana sources? 

Your assessment of a "relevant clock test" isn't really a good one. 

Why is 4 turns too slow?  You give no reason.  You just say "it's too slow if you don't interact."  Well, then 'Goyf is too slow, right?  Certainly, he isn't playable in your eyes....  And basically every aggro creature is too slow.  What creature kills in 4 turns and is played on turn 1?  Even turn 1 Tinker -> Inkwell Leviathan is too slow.  And if you don't first turn Tinker -> DSC or Oath -> 2x Hellkite Overlord (or whatever), those are too slow too.  None of these options interact with the opponent at all.

Plus you give no reasoning behind why between the 3/3 on 1 and the sliding scale 2, it's the 1 that is the bad card and not the 2.  It's not like that 'Goyf is going to go in for 20 faster than turn 4 or 5.  Of course, a turn 1 3/3 backed by a turn 2 3/3 wins in 5 turns the SAME as if you played 'Goyf turn 2 and turn 3, but for half the mana and with half of it coming down before drain mana is up.

All you've done so far is criticize someone's list in a meta that had 30% Tezz.  And that list won that tournament, a fact you just sort of nonchalantly dismiss.  Which, if you want to say you don't think it's the best deck, that's fine.  But you need more than just some vague assumption that he lucked into victory.
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« Reply #6 on: July 07, 2009, 08:57:40 am »

Your method for weighing the relevancy of a one mana 3/3 is alright,
but the main problem is that you are doing calculations in a vacuum.
You have to take it a step further and view the card in the context of a match accurately.

As your experiment implies, none these creatures are relevant until the opponent dies.
Therefore, you need to find a strategy that allows such a creature's damage to be relevant.
One method is attempting to slow down the game to allow your creature's damage to catch up with the opponent.
Another method is playing other one mana 3/3's or other damage oriented spells to add on to the damage already done
so that you kill your opponent faster.

Of course playing a 3/3 and a Goyf and then doing nothing else is awful in Vintage,
but there is nothing inherently awful about a turn 4-5 kill
as long as you can stop the opponent from winning before you.

In my experience, if you can kill consistently on turn 4-5
while playing 2-3 pieces of relevant disruption, your deck is actually pretty good by Vintage standards.
« Last Edit: July 07, 2009, 09:01:36 am by TopSecret » Logged

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AmbivalentDuck
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« Reply #7 on: July 08, 2009, 10:30:21 am »

Uhhh... you completely neglected the fact that I pointed that fact out....

a 3/3 and a 2/3.  not a list I'd play now (b/c of vulnerability to Null and no way to deal with Tezz main), but just refuting your statement that a 3/3 for 1 would not be playable.
...
All you've done so far is criticize someone's list in a meta that had 30% Tezz.  And that list won that tournament, a fact you just sort of nonchalantly dismiss.  Which, if you want to say you don't think it's the best deck, that's fine.  But you need more than just some vague assumption that he lucked into victory.
I quoted his match-ups specifically.  I'm not "assuming" that he lucked into victory, I'm showing that a creature-dense deck with larger butts than are typically played beat two fish decks.  There's no luck there: the matchups favored a strategy that's suboptimal elsewhere.  That doesn't make Kird Ape playable, anymore than it would make Boggart Ram Gang playable if he'd won with it.  I tied a long string of tournaments in the St. Louis area with a Sins of the Past in my Doomsday sideboard, and I assure you that the card is neither optimal NOR playable.

Quote
Are we suddenly presuming that the other 52 cards in the decks are mana sources? 
No, only that they aren't pitch counters or other 'free' spells.  When the theorized beatdown deck taps out, it stops interacting through anything but its creatures.

Quote
Your assessment of a "relevant clock test" isn't really a good one. 
Please suggest a better one.

Quote
Why is 4 turns too slow?  You give no reason.  You just say "it's too slow if you don't interact."  Well, then 'Goyf is too slow, right?  Certainly, he isn't playable in your eyes....  And basically every aggro creature is too slow.  What creature kills in 4 turns and is played on turn 1?  Even turn 1 Tinker -> Inkwell Leviathan is too slow.  And if you don't first turn Tinker -> DSC or Oath -> 2x Hellkite Overlord (or whatever), those are too slow too.  None of these options interact with the opponent at all.
Neither Oath nor Tinker lock you into a line of play where you have to drop them early for them to have a significant impact on the game.  If Tinker or Oath were errata-ed so they could not resolve after turn 2, yes, they'd be "too slow."  Dozer once did an experiment where he built infiTinker.dec, a thought experiment that successfulled showed that narrowly trying to Tinker for DSC as fast as possible (in a slower meta) was not a great strategy.

4 turns is too slow when your tempo is spent building the clock without interacting significantly with your opponent.  The reason is simple, most other decks can lock you down or kill you before turn 4 when they're goldfishing.

Quote
Plus you give no reasoning behind why between the 3/3 on 1 and the sliding scale 2, it's the 1 that is the bad card and not the 2.  It's not like that 'Goyf is going to go in for 20 faster than turn 4 or 5.  Of course, a turn 1 3/3 backed by a turn 2 3/3 wins in 5 turns the SAME as if you played 'Goyf turn 2 and turn 3, but for half the mana and with half of it coming down before drain mana is up.
Goyf is fat on turn 4 regardless of whether I played him on turn 4 or turn 1.  The Hidden creatures and Adder are unlikely to get fat that late in the game unless they won't matter to my opponent.

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« Reply #8 on: July 09, 2009, 09:10:00 pm »

Nacatl and Ape are bigger based on your terms (not counting waste / strip effects) while Herd is not. In a drain heavy meta Hidden Gibbons may be semi viable because that is a 4/4. I'd probably play Rogue Elephant or some 3/4 , 4/4 for 2 mana over running Hidden Herds in any case.
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KingHeavy
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« Reply #9 on: July 11, 2009, 04:06:45 pm »

I like this discussion.  A while back i post a list for a "casual deck" based on the hidden creatures. the core of my deck looked like this:

4 hidden gibbeons
4 hidden herd
4 hidden guerrilles
4 tarmogoyf
4 ESG
4 standstill
4 mystic remora
4 FOW

the deck worked like fish but with a strong control component.  I figured that in vintage almost every deck plays instants, artifacts, and non-basics. this means all the creature enchantments would trigger most of the time if dropped early.  Keeping the concentration high the goal was to drop two to three and a standstill in the first two turns.  this leads to between 6-10 damage second turn and 9-15 damage third turn.  the threat is the creatures to play around, but also with standstill and remora if you crack the still i get creatures too and if you kill my creatures i get more cards from remora.  all of this keeps you from winning while letting me hopefully keep control. ESG is fast mana, goyf is goyf and the rest of the deck was counters and control.  One could easily side deck specific control for any matchup that doesnt have the relative cards type or an alt win in case of ichorid or something.  It seemed to work well enough to test however!  What do you all think?
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