[FREE Article] Clash of the Titans! TPS v. Oath

[Smmenen]

http://www.starcitygames.com/magic/standard/18978_So_Many_Insane_Plays_Clash_of_the_Titans.html

This article is a very close analysis of TPS v. Oath, with detailed play-by-play and an examiination of various lines of play.  

Editor's Blurb:

Monday, March 15th - In today’s So Many Insane Plays, Stephen Menendian is in a lyrical mood. He takes us through a fierce battle between the Dark Mage (the Perfect Storm) and the Bant Mage (Oath). With detailed thought processes and play-by-play analysis, who will emerge the victor?

[Marske]

Steve,
Another great article, I noticed you swapped Grim Tutor for Sensei's Divining Top, did you ever use it in testing? As It never shows. Having a tutor compared to having something like top seems better imho.

The description of how the match went down seems very similar to testing results I had. Great stuff. Also the entire persona of "The Dark Mage" sounds awesome and describing the Oath player as a Bant mage definitely gives a nice little nuance to the entire play by play

[Troy_Costisick]

Heya,

I really like how you called the Oath deck a Bant deck.  I think that will help non-Vintage players better understand your article.  Nice choice of language. 

Peace,

-Troy

[TheBrassMan]

This reminded me so much of Oscar Tan.  A little goofy, but he got a lot of people to start playing Vintage, myself among them.  I love the polls, you're clearly very comfortable writing this way.  The only thing I would have liked is a postscript, a brief little summary of how you feel those games relate to the match as a whole (how realistic/typical you feel the end results were, who do you think is the ultimate favorite, do any one or two card choices really swing the matchup either way).  Fun stuff!

[Killane]

...The only thing I would have liked is a postscript, a brief little summary of how you feel those games relate to the match as a whole (how realistic/typical you feel the end results were, who do you think is the ultimate favorite, do any one or two card choices really swing the matchup either way).  Fun stuff!

I had the same reaction, though I get the feeling that your overall feeling about the match-up was embodied by the results of the playtest. I can;t imagine you sat down, layed one  three game match, and then wrote it out for your article, but rather I supposed you took an "archetypical" or "representative" match to use for the article.

The results support my own testing, on both sides of the table. Oath just has to pass the turn too often to consistantly come out on top here I think. Iona helps alot, but TPS has the upper hand here I think.

[Marske]

This reminded me so much of Oscar Tan.  A little goofy, but he got a lot of people to start playing Vintage, myself among them.  I love the polls, you're clearly very comfortable writing this way.

That's exactly it!! I couldn't put my finger on what I noticed in this article but it's indeed very similar to Oscar Tan's articles... very good stuff. I must honestly say I prefer this kind of writing style above the clear analytical (graph's etc) stuff that has flooded your other recent work. Not only does this style grasp the imagination of the reader as I could clearly envision the "Dark Mage" cloak and all (and identify with that image as a TPS player but that's another topic ) it also goes back to the core of Magic (being a fantasy game) it makes the read all the more enjoyable.

Great job on the polls as Brassy noted...

[Gekoratel]

Just wanted to say nice article, always enjoys these in depth matchup articles and the poll questions just add to the strength of the article.  

Poll-1: Easy mull the hand has no business and TPS is far too scary of a deck that you can hope one Force will get there.

Poll-2: Hard decision because there hasn't been very much written about how to properly use Necropotence and it varies greatly based on the cards in your hand and gamestates.  For this particular situation I favor drawing 11 cards the reason in you've spent your entire hand getting Necropotence into play (nothing wrong with that) but in doing so you essentially have a 0 card hand because all these extra lands are doing nothing and your very likely to draw into more lands with your Necro.  For this reason drawing anything less than 9 cards is a poor decision.  With 11 cards your giving yourself a very good chance of drawing into a Force of Will to counter potential Oath and also lets you filter through all of the excess lands you fill have after activating Necro.  Worse case scenario that you draw nothing in those 11 cards means you still filtered through a bunch of chaff and have 7 life points to work with.  It is unfortunate to go under 3 life because then Imp. Seal and Vamp are dead but you likely won't have very much choice in that game state.

Poll-3: Another easy choice by sitting on Spell Pierce you open up to getting utterly blown out by Duress and also aren't advancing your game forward in face of Necropotence.  You just need to hope they drew garbage and not Force and that you'll be able to Oath into Iona, not likely on all accounts but it’s your only way to win this game.

Poll-4: I'd draw 7 cards as you don't have Grim Tutor in the deck being at 3 life is almost the same as 4 life and you need to win next turn.

Poll-5: What line of play between 2/3 were you going for; it was hard to figure out since he countered the Lotus negating both lines.  Personally I would have leaned towards option 2 because you don't have to go all in and risk getting blown out by both Spell Pierce and Force.

Poll-6: I'm surprised that the majority of readers choose to go for Tezzeret pass; this gives TPS such a huge window to win the game when you have a back breaking option of casting Gifts here and Tezzeret next turn when you’re in a much more secure game-state.  I think your decision was certainly correct.

Poll-7: I would probably mulligan this hand but it is very close, having 2 Force of Will is awesome and if you draw into Orchard you'll have turn 1 Oath with double FoW backup.  Also if your opponent opens up on Duress and takes the obvious option of Lotus then you will still have Brainstorm assuming you draw any blue producing mana source.  Very hard choice not sure what’s correct.

Poll-8: I would also take Brainstorm here because it shuts off one of the Force of Will and I don't like my prospects of winning if I Duress the Lotus and he draws a blue mana source; he'll be able to sculpt the grip, find more mana sources, and still have access to 2x FoW.

Thanks again for the article.

[Smmenen]

It is a little bit Tanesque.   There are a number of differences though -- i played a full match set, Oscar usually only played one game -- and the Deck always won :p.   There is alot more meaty analysis, I hope - as well.   

I've experimented with the article form alot in the last year, having checklist articles, and financial market reports -- I thought this would be fun to do, and illuminating at the same time. 

[Marske]

It is a little bit Tanesque.   There are a number of differences though -- i played a full match set, Oscar usually only played one game -- and the Deck always won :p.   There is alot more meaty analysis, I hope - as well.   

Yes, you're obviously a better writer then Oscar was

I've experimented with the article form alot in the last year, having checklist articles, and financial market reports -- I thought this would be fun to do, and illuminating at the same time.

From all those experiments I like this one the best, will the next one also be a "Let the community decide" article? As you kinda let that happen this time with people posting on your blog.

[Smmenen]

Poll-2: Hard decision because there hasn't been very much written about how to properly use Necropotence and it varies greatly based on the cards in your hand and gamestates.  For this particular situation I favor drawing 11 cards the reason in you've spent your entire hand getting Necropotence into play (nothing wrong with that) but in doing so you essentially have a 0 card hand because all these extra lands are doing nothing and your very likely to draw into more lands with your Necro.  For this reason drawing anything less than 9 cards is a poor decision.  With 11 cards your giving yourself a very good chance of drawing into a Force of Will to counter potential Oath and also lets you filter through all of the excess lands you fill have after activating Necro.  Worse case scenario that you draw nothing in those 11 cards means you still filtered through a bunch of chaff and have 7 life points to work with.  It is unfortunate to go under 3 life because then Imp. Seal and Vamp are dead but you likely won't have very much choice in that game state.

The funny thing about Necro, as I allude to in the article, is that it's an extremely difficult card to use optimally, but it's also a card that doesn't demand optimal use since it's so powerful.   

The important feature here is that you have Yawg Will in hand.  That makes an 11 card draw more sensible.   I went for 9. 

The good news is that most Necro scenarios are emprically testable.  That is, they can be reconstructed, and, just like drawing sample hands, 30 samples of 9 or 11 cards can be drawn and their effects measured.

Poll-4: I'd draw 7 cards as you don't have Grim Tutor in the deck being at 3 life is almost the same as 4 life and you need to win next turn.

Assume I do have Grim Tutor maindeck.   

To answer Marskes question, I saw Jesse Martin cut Fact for Top.   Rich Shay and Demonic Attorney ran a Top in 2008.  Top is a great card, and a good inclusion, but I don't like cutting Fact.  Jesse probably has alot more recent play experience with the deck, however.    You can pretend that Top is Grim Tutor for this scenario, if you'd like.

Poll-5: What line of play between 2/3 were you going for; it was hard to figure out since he countered the Lotus negating both lines.  Personally I would have leaned towards option 2 because you don't have to go all in and risk getting blown out by both Spell Pierce and Force.

I think I was going for 2.

Poll-6: I'm surprised that the majority of readers choose to go for Tezzeret pass; this gives TPS such a huge window to win the game when you have a back breaking option of casting Gifts here and Tezzeret next turn when you’re in a much more secure game-state.  I think your decision was certainly correct.

This is one of the most intriguing poll questions I posed.   

I think that the answer becomes clear once you actually see what I gifted for.   But I think this question is actually revealing the fact that Vintage players are uncomfortable with Gifts, and undervalue is as a consequence.   

Poll-7: I would probably mulligan this hand but it is very close, having 2 Force of Will is awesome and if you draw into Orchard you'll have turn 1 Oath with double FoW backup.  Also if your opponent opens up on Duress and takes the obvious option of Lotus then you will still have Brainstorm assuming you draw any blue producing mana source.  Very hard choice not sure what’s correct.

2/3s of the poll respondants said they'd mulligan this hand.    I'm just so skeptical that a 6 card hand could be better.  Although, you are on the draw, so the mulligan is less painful.     

The key to this hand is Brainstorm, imo.  I'm not sure if all of the poll respondants considered that fully.

Poll-8: I would also take Brainstorm here because it shuts off one of the Force of Will and I don't like my prospects of winning if I Duress the Lotus and he draws a blue mana source; he'll be able to sculpt the grip, find more mana sources, and still have access to 2x FoW.

Thanks again for the article.

The vast majority of the poll people said they'd take Black Lotus.  That's really puzzling to me.

[Killane]

The vast majority of the poll people said they'd take Black Lotus.  That's really puzzling to me.

Lotus was my knee-jerk reaction, but then I went with B.S. Taking Lotus appears to completely mana-deny them at first glance, forgettign that they have 16-18 lands plus Petal and Sapphire to generate blue for B.S, to then find a second mana source, etc.... I imagine the mana-denail line of thinking is what leads o thsi decision, when taking B.S. is really a better mana-denial choice AND shuts off a FoW. i coudl see how many players woudl miss that at first glance.

[Smmenen]

The vast majority of the poll people said they'd take Black Lotus.  That's really puzzling to me.

Lotus was my knee-jerk reaction, but then I went with B.S. Taking Lotus appears to completely mana-deny them at first glance, forgettign that they have 16-18 lands plus Petal and Sapphire to generate blue for B.S, to then find a second mana source, etc.... I imagine the mana-denail line of thinking is what leads o thsi decision, when taking B.S. is really a better mana-denial choice AND shuts off a FoW. i coudl see how many players woudl miss that at first glance.

The TPS pilot has to then fight through double Force of Will, and do so 1) before the Oath pilot draws another mana source and 2) with a somewhat depleted hand.   

It's really a question of what will happen first: 1) win through double force of will 2) Oath pilot draw another blue mana source.    It's better odds that (2) would happen first.   

[Marske]

To answer Marskes question, I saw Jesse Martin cut Fact for Top.   Rich Shay and Demonic Attorney ran a Top in 2008.  Top is a great card, and a good inclusion, but I don't like cutting Fact.  Jesse probably has alot more recent play experience with the deck, however.    You can pretend that Top is Grim Tutor for this scenario, if you'd like.

I have to agree that FoF gets better every time I cast it in this deck. I know Jesse doesn't prefer FoF. But I've fiddled around with the maindeck a lot and nothing can come close to the power that Grim Tutor has over Top. Sure Top is nice to let you manipulate the deck but Grim Tutor has over the years provided me with Wins where having Top never would, I'm skeptical regarding cutting anything (barring Misdirection which always gets moved to and from the maindeck) from the deck as the overall shell has been so good to me all this time. Top seems clunky, time consuming and mana hungry in a deck that doesn't really have a lot to spare. I love the card, don't get me wrong, but I'm not too comfortable with having it in the maindeck of TPS.

as an aside, It's good to see TPS once more getting the love it deserves.

[Smmenen]

Yeah, I wasn't eager to cut Top, but I figured that if there was one card that it could go in the place of, it would be Grim Tutor.   Top can be played on turn one to create some solid effects where Grim Tutor is at its weakest.   Also, Top has great synergy with the topdeck tutors in the deck, which means it can help produce a real DT effect, like Grim Tutor. 

[voltron00x]

This was a very well-written article, nice work.  I enjoyed reading one of these that didn't feature Tezzeret!

[MEATROCKET]

I've tried playing Top in TPS and I think it's a great card in there.  Unfortunately I was never able to cut a card for it, so it became card #61.  I know that's not ideal but I haven't been playing much lately so I haven't had a lot of testing .  I've always thought that GT or FoF would be the card to go and I have to agree that FoF offers something the deck sometimes really needs (at least more often than what GT usually offers).  My favorite play with Top was getting it along with a topdeck tutor off an otherwise lousy Desire, but got there thanks to Top both drawing the card and giving me an exactly lethal storm count.

[Marske]

Yeah, I wasn't eager to cut Top, but I figured that if there was one card that it could go in the place of, it would be Grim Tutor.   Top can be played on turn one to create some solid effects where Grim Tutor is at its weakest.   Also, Top has great synergy with the topdeck tutors in the deck, which means it can help produce a real DT effect, like Grim Tutor.

This makes perfect sense, in working on Almost Blue / European Storm I've come to appreciate what Sensei's Divining Top can do for a Combo deck so I know how insane it can be. It's just that I've never found a spot for it, with Tezz on the decline (looking at the Philly / NYC events as those are the biggest) I'd rather swap Misdirection for top in your list and keep the Grim tutor. Have you tested this list against any deck running Lodestones? How is the Bog vs Stax or haven't you tested anything regarding TPS except this match?

[CorwinB]

I loved the article, it was both enjoyable and informative, a very rare combination.

BTW, Stephen, how are you faring readership-wise on SCG ? You mentioned riding the coattail of your Legacy article for a couple weeks, did the same thing (surge in readership) happen with your recent articles on the RL ? Or has your readership stabilized at a higher baseline with the increased popularity of Legacy ?

[JDawg13]

This was another great article.  The style was great and it was filled with all sorts of interesting nuggets of information around different possible lines of play.  Keep up the good work!

[Purple Hat]

Yeah, I wasn't eager to cut Top, but I figured that if there was one card that it could go in the place of, it would be Grim Tutor.   Top can be played on turn one to create some solid effects where Grim Tutor is at its weakest.   Also, Top has great synergy with the topdeck tutors in the deck, which means it can help produce a real DT effect, like Grim Tutor.

This makes perfect sense, in working on Almost Blue / European Storm I've come to appreciate what Sensei's Divining Top can do for a Combo deck so I know how insane it can be. It's just that I've never found a spot for it, with Tezz on the decline (looking at the Philly / NYC events as those are the biggest) I'd rather swap Misdirection for top in your list and keep the Grim tutor. Have you tested this list against any deck running Lodestones? How is the Bog vs Stax or haven't you tested anything regarding TPS except this match?

playing both top and grim allows you to gifts for a Demonic effect by fetching Top, Vamp, grim, DT.  most likely you'll get grim and top, but without the grim tutor or the top you'd be stuck going for top deck tutors when you want the card NOW.  that's my favorite use for top in this deck but requires you to play grim tutor as well

[failtofind]

            Hey Steve
                                 This is Jesse, i haven't read your article yet as i don't have premium, but a friend does, so i should be able to read it sometime this week. Top has always been really good to me, Fact has always been kinda win more...top is better in the remora match up (my meta) as every topdeck tutor becomes a must counter for desire.. it is good against decks that play duress, and good against decks likes shops as it's a permanent, and it is always reasurring to jar or twist when you have top out, knowing you can dig that much deeper if need be. it isnt stellar against fish and null rod decks for obvious reasons. it just seems like none of the games i have played it would have been good to run out fof..its too much mana for unsure results..every game with tps is extremely tight, their are no overly easy matchups for it anymore except for ichorid, when i play i want to be absolutely sure i can kill my opponent, no room for chance, and i think top really adds another layer of manipulation to the deck.  my thoughts anyway

[DubDub]

This article is now free, and was a very entertaining read!

[honestabe]

One of the best and most fun articles I've ever read

[Smmenen]

This article is now free, and was a very entertaining read!

One of the best and most fun articles I've ever read

Thanks guys!   I know that some people really enjoy that style, but other people don't like framing the game in those terms.  

I decided to do something different to get people into the Vintage experience from a different lens.  

[NodFreak]

This article is BEYOND AWESOME!

My 2 decks are TPS and Oath!

Extremelly useful!

[TheShop]

Steve, another triumph.  I especially enjoy watching the thought process.

One thought:  Sadistic Sac is fairly common now and the Rich Shay Oath deck specifically runs 4 kill conditions to avoid an auto loss.  I saw your post on the other thread about dropping Collossus altogether (and it looks like a good idea against TPS because of the increased chance of Iona), but I can't help but think that he deck should not go down to 3 win conditions postboard against anyone who can make BBB quickly.  I also noticed that in game one when colossus was oathed up it was a tragedy.  Was this an illustration of your earlier sentiments on this subject?

[Cyberpunker]

The Bant Mage Druid opens game 3 with this hand:

Tezzeret the Seeker
Brainstorm
Oath of Druids
Force of Will
Black Lotus
Force of Will
Yawgmoth’s Will

You have to mulligan that hand. You have no lands. Unless you are hoping to topdeck into lands or use Lotus to Brainstorm, you have to mulligan. Plus against TPS a first turn Oath without an Orchard is not good. Mulligan.

You cannot do anything at all with that hand. A 6 card hand with lands is better trust me. The Druid had no chance to take game 3 once you made him keep that weaponless hand.

Great writing style and entertaining read!!!!!!! Its awesome to know that you are promoting the format. But I think you should know that the BANT mage is Noble Selkie rather than Oath .

[Campee]

In game 3,  why didn't TPS take the Lotus with Duress? Wouldn't that have kept the Oath player out of the game for a really long time?

[mistervader]

I was hoping to put the Oath matchup to the test with TPS during yesterday's tournament, but for the record, I like the sideboard you're running, Stephen. Anyways, my question pertains to your board, even if it's not for the Oath MU...

The 7 slots you dedicated to Ichorid are pretty excellent, although I'm thinking whether or not Ravenous Trap is better in place of Leyline, so as to completely invalidate their Nature's Claims. BTW, what do you side out for the Dredge matchup other than 4 Duress, 1 Misdirection? I had the pleasure of slugging it out with two Dredge decks in the tourney. They were hard-fought, but I wriggled out wins for both matches.

[Sobolev]

I too enjoyed this article, and would like to say you are the writer who impresses me most with your good explanations and work.

Further, rather than just post another me too in another thread, I also enjoyed the market report article and look forward to more of those as well.