This card is definitely interesting, but I'm still on the fence about it. The question is, when do you cast it?
Am I going to play this over a Sphere effect? No. Not unless I have 6 mana. How often do I have 6 mana turn 1?
Am I going to play this over Lodestone? No. Not unless I have 8 mana. 8 mana to cast the first Lodestone is too much, although I admit multiple Lodestones is superb.
Am I going to play this over a Tangle Wire? No. Not unless I have 7 mana.
If I have that much mana, or if not, can afford to NOT cast a lockpiece now and cast this instead strikes me as a tad bit 'win more'.
4 mana to put a mox out now and every turn for free thereafter? A tad underwhelming though not without merit.
I wouldn't compare this to Smokestack at all. Taking away permanents from the opponent is not the same as me having more of them. My opponent has a 7/11 and I have more moxen...who wins?
So, since this card is not better than casting a lockpiece unless you have mana for BOTH, RIGHT NOW, when do you cast it?? Later on I suppose, and I wonder when you topdeck this badboy how good it would be if you have no relevent artifacts in hand because you had to cast them to disrupt your opponent. Or just have lands in hand.
I find this card to be very similar to Sculpting Steel in that it complements an artifact you already have either in play or in hand. Steel isn't affected by Null Rod, can copy opponents artifacts, but can't keep cranking out artifacts.
This card does open doors to several other non-Null Rod strategies for MUD. I am willing to bet Metalworker (and consequently Null Rod) will be seeing a lot more play. First turn Metalworker might become a 'must-counter' since you don't know if your opponent has Staff or Prototype Portal and enough mana to activate it. I wonder if any other cheap artifacts will be coming out that would be better to copy. Let's wait and see before we come to any conclusions about this card.
I've always felt that first-turn Metalworker was already a must-counter, as if they don't have anything to power out afterwards, you probably win anyways because their best card was a Metalworker that can't do anything broken.
Similarly, I think of this card as also being a must counter. It's going to do something broke, or their hand sucks and you are going to win anyways. Sure, there is the possibility of baiting, but you have to bite since if you don't you can't counter their next spell.
Whether or not it is the correct play is a different issue in my opinion. Strong plays are always strong, even if they are not correct. Weak plays can be correct plays, but that doesn't make them strong. A better card to play in a given situation might be Bitterblossom, but that doesn't make it a strong play.
This is just a flat-out strong card. Whether or not it's a weak play is irrelevant. If it's better to cast the Sphere, then cast the Sphere. It's really no different than any other card like that. But it's better to back up that weaker play (but let's say it's correct due to mana constraints) with a strong card rather than a weaker one. It's not so narrow of a play that it's strength as a card would be negated.
That said, will it be played? Who knows. There seems to be a lot of good stuff coming in for Shop decks and I'd imagine we're going to see a lot of variations for awhile before something becomes standardized.