[Free Article] Insider: Spotting Fakes

[TheWhiteDragon]

You see, countefeiting and developing derivitives are different, and Duck seems to be missing that.  Yes, you can legally create replicas of the Mona Lisa.  There's a difference between making reproductions of the Mona Lisa and selling them and making reproductions claiming it to be the ACTUAL Mona Lisa.  Generic drugs can be made when a copyright expires, sure.  But it is a perishable product that has no value aftermarket.  Printing a million babe ruth rookie card replicas is legal and fine.  It's when you try to pass off the replica as an ACTUAL babe ruth rookie that it becomes not only illegal, but morally wrong.

WotC doesn't need indefinite copyright.  As I said, I don't care about proxies or reprints.  In fact, if these cards were to be completely identical to Vintage magic cards, with the exception of a small symbol somewhere indicating replica (kind of like CE cards, but not even so gaudy), I would not care one bit.  The supply factor of replicas doesn't matter when talking about collectibility - so long as nobody is trying to pass off the replicas as real.  If everyone in the world had one copy of every magic card printed, except mine were real and 99% of the people had a version with a tiny stamp the size of the tap symbol indicating fake, then from a collector standpoint, I would not care.  I don't mind if the price due to utility disappeared - only the value due to authenticity as a collectible.  

Example, in terms you might grasp...

Let's say I write a book (which has ZERO collectibility in the mass printings nowadays).  The ONLY value comes from utility...reading the story I wrote.  This value allows me to profit when people buy said book.  A derivitive would be like someone making a movie based on the book...or an original book offshooting from the storyline (see the plethura of Star Wars novels).  That doesn't hurt my original product. But if someone were to take my work and print copies of it...not a derivitive, but an EXACT copy, claiming the work to be original and taking ALL my profitibility away, how can you think that is right?  I can only assume you're trolling us.

Counterfeits anywhere, modern, standard, or reserve list DO affect WotC's bottom line.  As I said, if I knew the cards I was laying out $4 a pack for, or picking up individually aftermarket, was literally worth blank card board, then I would never buy any of it.  I would never buy a single pack...ever.  That would drop WotC's profits for sure.  If even Black lotus were ripped off in that way, I'd stop buying all future product, knowing that eventually it will all become worthless and cease to be collectible.

I think the bottom line is, Duck fails to see the difference between creating replicas and claiming them to be replicas vs churning out replicas and fraudulently passing them off as the original.  Duplicates, where legal, are just fine.  Fraud is not.

[bactgudz]

Some seem to feel there is an altruistic ideal of increasing the card supply for eternal cards...even if that is the case:

The motive of the counterfeiters is not an altruistic motive to increase the card supply, it is a profit motive; and there is no boundary at this altruistic goal.  They face the same potential consequences if they meet it or exceed it. 

Therefore, they will proceed beyond it with their profit motive to a realm of fraud which hurts honest customers willing to pay for originals and to the realm of printing $5 cards, then $1 cards in standard which displace the incentive for WOTC to continue development.

You may not think that counterfeit Gucci bags are a problem, but they are a problem when they finance the same people who proceed to counterfeit pharmaceuticals.

[AmbivalentDuck]

That may be, Duck, but how could you get a counterfeiter who made the decision to only hit reserve list staples?  If you're breaking US law for cash, it seems inevitable that you counterfeit whatever costs money.  Once the gates open, everything is up for grabs.

I'm not arguing in favor of counterfeiters. I'm saying they're here. If you didn't see this coming, that's your fault. In terms of impact on Vintage, I'd put this around nil unless MtG becomes wildly unprofitable and Hasbro shuts it down. More likely, they're forced to offer some sort of Modern redemption program in which they trade a list of modern staples for a reprinted version of the staple with the authenticity stamp plus a pack/promo/etc. Yes, it's expensive, but less than a gross loss of consumer confidence. By tying together authenticity and playability again, things go back to the old status quo.

[TheWhiteDragon]

I'm not arguing in favor of counterfeiters. I'm saying they're here. If you didn't see this coming, that's your fault. In terms of impact on Vintage, I'd put this around nil unless MtG becomes wildly unprofitable and Hasbro shuts it down. More likely, they're forced to offer some sort of Modern redemption program in which they trade a list of modern staples for a reprinted version of the staple with the authenticity stamp plus a pack/promo/etc. Yes, it's expensive, but less than a gross loss of consumer confidence. By tying together authenticity and playability again, things go back to the old status quo.

So...if a burglar robs my home, then it's my fault?  Robbery exists, people do bad things...if I didn't anticipate theft, it's my fault?  There are measures people can take (getting an alarm) that help to an extent (and none in the case of counterfeiters), but the fact is people can't be stopped from breaking the law if they want to.  To finish the analogy, is the answer to avoiding burglary - since it happens and I should expect it - to not buy a house and have no possessions?  Just because collectible things can be counterfeited doesn't mean it is okay for them to be counterfeited, nor is it a persons fault for buying those items sheerly on the basis that someone can illegally screw you.  The entire monetary system is based on investment and return principles.  Should I never invest in anything because someone can illegally blow up my investment?  I understand that you don't think anything collectible is an appropriate investment vehicle.  That's fine, but the fact is they ARE an investment that is viable in any system bound by law.  They are no different than buying stocks for that matter.  Does the existence of insider trading mean I should expect stocks to fail and it be my fault if illegal activity drops my stock's worth?

[AmbivalentDuck]

Yes. The unforeseen isn't your fault, but setting yourself up to get screwed by it is. In the example you gave, you should have had insurance. That MtG would eventually be counterfeited is wholly foreseeable.

And with your latter examples, yes! Failing to hedge against risk is YOUR fault.

[evouga]

Psh, if the last three years have taught us anything, it's that nobody should expect to take any responsibility for their high-risk, high-reward investments anymore. Magic singles are too big to fail! Worst case, we'll get a corporate bailout and WotC will send us thousands of dollars for our now-worthless Loti.

[TheWhiteDragon]

Then why buy cards at all?  Why don't we just sharpie everything?

[evouga]

There's definitely a practical aspect of it. Do you play Monopoly on a legitimate board, or do you sharpie a piece of plywood? Nothing is stopping you from proxying a Monopoly board, but playing on the real thing is much more enjoyable and a lot less work.

And there's nothing wrong with getting excited about the collectability side of it, the excitement of cracking a chase rare in a pack, the covetous satisfaction of flipping through your binder of pimp and power and remembering the years of searching and trading it took to put it together piece by piece.

But if you you bought Magic cards as an investment? Spent so much on cards that it's hurt your financial situation, and not for the entertainment of playing the game, but in the hopes of speculating a quick buck? Well, I kinda feel bad for you on the one hand, but on the other, you brought it upon yourself. It's your money and your responsibility to do due diligence when you invest it. There's nothing secret about the risks of investing in Magic cards: counterfeits have been around for years, the possibility of WotC meddling with the secondary market have been around for years, not to mention that fact that secondary card prices are volatile, the most valuable cards are not particularly liquid, and that nothing is preventing (has prevented?) the major online stores from colluding to fix prices or commit other shenanigans.

I'm on the fence about whether or not a huge influx of counterfeit Vintage staples would be good or bad for the format (I do think counterfeit Standard cards are definitely unhealthy for the game; that's a different story). Whichever side I eventually come down on, though, I feel like those who invested a lot in cards knew (or should have known) the risks, rolled the dice, and took their chances.

[Godder]

I'm less than keen on the idea of counterfeits, so please do not take my post as condoning counterfeiting cards, or buying/using counterfeit cards because I don't.

After the recent decision to leave the Reserve List intact, and strengthen it, counterfeiting became more likely, and on a bigger scale than before. If the Reserve List is not in place, those cards can be reprinted in any quantity Wizards deems fit. It's unlikely that they cost as much in the singles market, and they are more readily available, and consequently, the demand for counterfeit cards falls. If the demand falls, the cost rises, because most of the cost in printing is in set-up, and extra cards cost very little each. If these two figures get close enough, counterfeiting is much less viable, and the incentive and volumes drop, so the danger goes away.

The supply of old cards is finite (currently), and shrinking all the time, and the prices ever-increasing for the cards that are in demand. This was inevitable anyway, but became more viable when the Reserve List decision was announced. I'd like to hope that Hasbro can stop it, but if one company can do it, another one can, and all that is likely to happen from any scrutiny of the counterfeiting company is they stop being so brazen and open about it.

[brianpk80]

The last I heard, there were supposed to be enormous shipments on 1/19 and 1/23 that threatened to flood the country with fakes, but then it turned out they were only going to Brazil and Spain (?).  Then there was a statement from someone named MTGLion who had communicated with Wizards and assured us the situation was under control.  I'd like to hope that is the case but can't find any information about whether the scare has blown over.  Anyone know?  Thanks, -B

[MaximumCDawg]

Dunno.  MTGSalvation had the most active discussion and updates on the issue, but the moderators over there have closed all threads because every thread devolves into fights along the lines of what WhiteDragon and Evouga are doing here.  (Cut it out, guys.)  No one appears to know anything about the Chinese shipments, at least nothing popping up on the MTGThesource threads or trickling out from Reddit that I've seen.

The way I figure it, if someone is doing this on a large scale, there's a retailer or supplier somewhere buying the cards and intends to sell em.  All this publicity puts that in danger, so it will get harder and harder to get information about what is going on. 

[evouga]

Dunno.  MTGSalvation had the most active discussion and updates on the issue, but the moderators over there have closed all threads because every thread devolves into fights along the lines of what WhiteDragon and Evouga are doing here.  (Cut it out, guys.)  No one appears to know anything about the Chinese shipments, at least nothing popping up on the MTGThesource threads or trickling out from Reddit that I've seen.

The way I figure it, if someone is doing this on a large scale, there's a retailer or supplier somewhere buying the cards and intends to sell em.  All this publicity puts that in danger, so it will get harder and harder to get information about what is going on. 

Hey now, I've only posted once (now twice) in this entire thread.