This thread was prompted by the somewhat amusing quote in...

[jpmeyer]

And in an amusing series of events, I wouldn't be surprised if Keeper's stock rose post-Mirrodin as long as it runs multiple copies of Gorilla Shaman in the maindeck because it is one of the few decks (read: other than Tog and Mud) that doesn't scoop to Chalice of the Void set at 0, 1, or 2.\n\n

[Eastman]

Stock rose this weekend with 1st place finishes in Concord, NH and Paris, France (played by Steve O'Connell and Jean-Luc Metz, respectively)

[Lupo]

Gentleman,

Especially with the addition of Mirrodin, Type 1 will have hit critical mass.  They printed artifacts that will make any deck better, tutors that let you find what you want for a very reasonable price, along with a host of straight up good cards.  Most sets give us what, 1-2 cards that will break the barrier and see play in type one, Mirrodin is giving us more than ten times that.

The environment is going to be VERY shaken up.  I see each major archtype getting better with the exception of Hulk.  The Chalice is nuts and the Mox will be restricted (free mana = restricted), I dont care how good, bad, or useful it is.

Getting back to keeper, I see keeper getting much better after the influx of mirrodin, primarily because of the Scepter.  Reason being that keeper has the most diverse array of cards to put under it, allowing it to make the most use of it.  Keeper has always been about card quality, not so much quantity.  No doubt, since type one began to pick up steam and decks got better and more consistent, keepers ability to deal with anything and everything at all times has diminished, taking away the prime reason to play the deck, but the new environment is going to be very random at first while the dust settles, and there are certainly enough powerful cards to put a deck that specalizes inversatility back to the top tables.

[SpikeyMikey]

@Grendal - Well, I have to admit that I think you've done a good job of updating the deck.  

The Abyss is a big problem for Hulk, and it's still a problem for Sligh, but it's just not the bomb it once was.  Much like Keeper used to be able to force with their lone morphling and still win, on general card strength alone, Hulk can out draw the Keeper player until they have enough counters to back up a double tog drop, lose one during the upkeep and still win.  Granted, it's harder, like having to win with Keeper when you forced with your only Morphling, but it's do-able.  Sligh has another tool in Ankh of Mishra, in many ways it's like a creature, it's fairly reliable and reusable damage.  Cunning Wish for Shattering Pulse makes this a lot easier to handle than the single D. Blow 2 years ago would have dealt with it, but it's still rather slow.  The Abyss is still a very powerful hoser, it's just not as powerful as it once was.

@Eastman - Yes, I fully believe all 3 of those statements.  Keeper has been on a downward slide for a while now.  The traditional ideas about what aggro should be, about what control should be, and most recently, about what combo should be have changed.  The old idea of Keeper simply cannot compete with a changed metagame.

Here's a good example.  Let's take the traditional sligh deck.  Before fetches and Ankh Sligh.  If you took your fully tuned T1 Sligh deck, complete with appropriate jewelry, fork, wheel, bolts chains, pups, etc. to a T2 tournament, you'd be hard pressed to win a match.  T2 aggro would absolutely *murder* T1 Sligh.  I know, I tested the theory.  I haven't tried it since the inception of Ankh Sligh, so I can't really talk about that, but old sligh got handled.  Aggro had been boiled down so far in an attempt to beat control, it was no longer suitable for matchups against other aggro decks.  The deck is not made for creature-creature combat, nor is it meant to deal with decks running 4 wrath of god and 4 renewed faith plus exalted angels.  I can't really call it metagaming, because it wasn't metagamed against any specific deck, it was more aimed at beating what the format had become.

Well, now the format has changed.  Take Stax to a T2 tournament.  Take TnT to a T2 tournament.  They'd wreck house.  The new decks beat the old scene, and they aren't as narrow in scope.

I fully believe that a majority(or at least a majority of the talkative) Keeper players are zealots.  If someone posts a thread saying I don't think Keeper is viable because of x, y, and z, you won't find people debating x, y, and z.  You'll find the next 10 posts are flames.  "Keeper is the only tier 1 deck because it is so flexible, you are stupid I hope you die."  Then one person will drop a post like "well, those are some valid points, and *maybe* you're on the right track.  Then another 10 flames:  "Keeper will never die, and when it's not the best deck in T1, the format is screwed up, and it's fine right now, it still posts at least a 50/50 rec with everything out there game 1, and 90/10 post sideboard."

So to answer your question, yes, I think a lot of Keeper players are raving zealots.  It's infectious too, which is the scary thing.  Someone comes here and learns the dogma that Keeper is god, and always has been, and always will be.  This sinks in after reading 500 posts about this crap.  Or how about Oscar's "You can play control MMCXXVII:  Learning more about Keeper"?  So now there's a bunch of people running around that have never played T1 outside of Apprentice proclaiming that Keeper is the best deck, and always will be, despite the fact that they can't post a winning rec with it to save their lives.

Finally, control runs off card advantage.  Whether it be in the form of removing your opponents cards, or getting additional cards yourself, card advantage is the key to control winning.  Control doesn't have an early game.  It has to be able to match it's opponents cards at a better than 1-to-1 rate, or it WILL lose.  Card quality plays a bit in there too, obviously Morphling>Jackal Pup, but as a general rule, if you cannot generate card advantage in a control deck, you lose.  Some control decks have taken this concept to the extreme, look at the Tempest era draw-go with stalking stones and 1 rainbow efreet as the kill, and almost no removal.  The deck wa all counters and drawing.  Pull out the drawing, the deck cannot win.  Keeper makes up for the card advantage that it loses through lack of card drawing by using spells that generate card advantage when they remove your opponents cards from the board.  Balance is the most notable of these, sometimes forcing your opponent to lose cards in hand and in play.  The Abyss is another card advantage engine, your opponent's creature draws are not as useful, as they'll be eventually eaten by the Abyss.  

Against another control deck, however, these card advantage generators are not as potent.  For one, you have to actually resolve the spells, which is hard to do when your opponent draws more cards and runs more counters than you do.  They generate their card advantage more quickly, and with less reliance on what spells their opponent plays.  Yes, not being able to draw cards like OSE could, or like BBS could, or like GaT could, or like Hulk can hurts Keeper immensely.

Let's use Keeper as an example of the middle ground.  It runs a touch of drawing and a touch of multi-card removal spells.  Now compare this to both ends of the spectrum, a multi color control deck that runs simply off removal and counters with no draw, and a control deck that runs simply off drawing and counters, no removal.  Which one do you think would do better, both against Keeper and against the rest of the field?  

The removal deck would have dead cards in hand, depending on what their opponent played, and against Keeper, there might not be a permanent worth removing until turn 8, 9 or better, when it can easily be protected by counterspells until (in the case of Future Sight)it's generated a stupid enough amount of card advantage to where winning is impossible, or (in the case of Morphling) where a few turns later, the game has been ended.

The drawing deck can use it's card drawing early and often, and by the time Keeper is ready to drop a bomb, will often have multiple free counterspells open, plus a few drains, and have the drawing in hand to recover after a counter-war far better than Keeper, with it's inferior draw.  Keeper creates larger amounts of card advantage with each card, but draw heavy control does it faster, and in the long run, faster is better than bigger.

[dandan]

Keeper's time is up.

The central strategy of abusing Elemental Augury and Millstone to deprive the opponent of key cards (letting them 'keep' non-useful cards, hence the name 'Keeper') is no longer viable in today's metagame.

The only hope for this deck is to try to evolve into a 4-5 colour control deck packing flexible and powerful cards that are chosen to combat the current metagame. Luckily, given the colours possible in Keeper, there are a wide range of cards available. Of course once you drop the Augury and Millstone people might start calling the deck something other than 'Keeper' but I hope you can live with that.

I have high hopes that it is possible to construct a viable 4-5 colour control deck...

[CrazyCarl]

Quote (SpikeyMikey @ Sep. 15 2003,21:31)@Grendal - Well, I have to admit that I think you've done a good job of updating the deck.  

The Abyss is a big problem for Hulk, and it's still a problem for Sligh, but it's just not the bomb it once was.  Much like Keeper used to be able to force with their lone morphling and still win, on general card strength alone, Hulk can out draw the Keeper player until they have enough counters to back up a double tog drop, lose one during the upkeep and still win.  Granted, it's harder, like having to win with Keeper when you forced with your only Morphling, but it's do-able.  Sligh has another tool in Ankh of Mishra, in many ways it's like a creature, it's fairly reliable and reusable damage.  Cunning Wish for Shattering Pulse makes this a lot easier to handle than the single D. Blow 2 years ago would have dealt with it, but it's still rather slow.  The Abyss is still a very powerful hoser, it's just not as powerful as it once was.

The Abyss is a terrible choice right now.

Against Hulk, they can do sooooooo much.  Worst case, they use up a Cunning Wish and Naturalize it.  Or they can play double Tog.  Or best case, they Mana Drain it, and then play and flashback Deep Analysis for 2 mana, leaving them able to Duress and Drain.  Obviously this isn't going to happen against anyone who knows what they're doing, but Plow is a much bigger threat against Hulk.  It's a 1 mana instant as opposed to a 4 mana enchantment.  It's got the same downsides as Plow(can be dead and is Duressable), but it's also harder to get out as Black is becoming more and more a secondary color in favor of White(where Plow is obviously more easily cast), and is also taken care of via Cunning Wish.

Sligh's guys are too cheap for Abyss to handle, good luck casting it against wMud and/or UrPhid, though if you are somehow able to get it early against any of these decks, it's very good for you.  With the exception of Mud however, these aren't decks you need to worry about imo.

I'm very convinced that the concept of reactive control is dead.  Pro-active has always been better than reactive, and it's just more pronounced nowadays with other decks becoming better and better.

[LemanRuss]

Quote The Abyss is a terrible choice right now.

Well, the only deck The Abyss is good against is Suicide black. If the expected metagame does not contain much of these decks, there is almost no reason playing this card.


SpikeyMikey said:

Quote Pull out the drawing, the deck cannot win.

With 7 cards in my deck being able to get a big draw card (Skeletal Scrying) and that are cheaper than Intuition, plus other draw spells, I never been worried about drawing cards. But sometimes, you have just a better play to do than simply drawing cards, as you can, for example, disrupt the opponent's mana (and with better than a 1 for 1 card ratio) or play other silver bullets.

In fact, I think the biggest problem of today's Keeper is that it can easily be outdrawn by Hulksmash if you don't take care - in this only case, yes, I can feel a lack of draw spells, but does it makes Hulksmash better in all the other matchups ? I am not sure.

And, definitely not, I won't say a deck is "dead" if it is winning tournaments. Just a matter of termiology, maybe.

[Grendal]

Quote The Abyss is a terrible choice right now.

Against Hulk, they can do sooooooo much.  Worst case, they use up a Cunning Wish and Naturalize it.  Or they can play double Tog.  Or best case, they Mana Drain it, and then play and flashback Deep Analysis for 2 mana, leaving them able to Duress and Drain.  Obviously this isn't going to happen against anyone who knows what they're doing, but Plow is a much bigger threat against Hulk.  It's a 1 mana instant as opposed to a 4 mana enchantment.  It's got the same downsides as Plow(can be dead and is Duressable), but it's also harder to get out as Black is becoming more and more a secondary color in favor of White(where Plow is obviously more easily cast), and is also taken care of via Cunning Wish.

I disagree...   I think although having several STP's are very important to Keeper, I think having the presence of The Abyss is also important.   It does allow Keeper to have better games vs Sligh and the like, and if it does resolve against Tog, the pace of the game dramatically slows down.   People are to quick to disreguard cards today as being to slow or whatnot, when in reality they are just as effecient as they ever were.   They may not fit your particular play style, and they certainly don't fit some of the Keeper decks running around out there attempting to run off Goblin Trenches and the like, although in my opinion those decks aren't quite up to snuff anyways.

Quote Sligh's guys are too cheap for Abyss to handle, good luck casting it against wMud and/or UrPhid, though if you are somehow able to get it early against any of these decks, it's very good for you.  With the exception of Mud however, these aren't decks you need to worry about imo.

Again I must disagree.   The Abyss is great vs sligh, most Sligh decks either get am extremely lucky draw and are able to dish out 20 damage with their opening hand, or they quickly hit you for 14-19 damage, and go into top deck mode to try and find the final threat.   The majority of Keeper vs Sligh matches I win, evolved around me being at 1 life when I do so.   Having a resolved Abyss on the table means I only have to counter direct damage, or in the rare case they get 2 creatures back to back, and to do that they had to do nothing one round.   So The Abyss is far from being in effective vs Sligh.

Your analogy you used against MUDD about getting mana, if the Keeper player gets 2 blue, he/she can easily drain into a large sum of mana to use and abuse on there main phase.   So resolving a larger bomb like this wouldn't really be all that hard to do.

Quote
I'm very convinced that the concept of reactive control is dead.  Pro-active has always been better than reactive, and it's just more pronounced nowadays with other decks becoming better and better.

I would agree to a large extent, but things like Duress / The Abyss which you flamed in the above category would all be very fine examples of Pro-Active control.   All of which is run by Keeper.   Keeper's use of Cunning Wishes could also be seen as Pro-Active in that they can fetch an early Draw X or perhaps fetch something that is a little more game breaking prior to it ever being needed.   Its really all a matter of how you play the deck, not so much as how the deck actually funtions.  

If a Keeper player takes the old approach preached by the Weissman School so very long ago about just sitting there, and every action they take, is a reaction to something their opponent did, then yes... they will most likely lose the game in the long run.   But no good Keeper player should do that, and if they do, I wouldn't consider them a good Keeper player :/

- Grendal

[Grendal]

The one thing that really bugs me, is that recently Keeper took the France tourney, and I do believe Zherbus also posted a victory with Keeper.  Yet in the eyes of many, and the words you read every day "Keeper is dead" bah.   Not to mention without a serious FUBAR having happened at GenCon, Hulk wouldn't have even made the top 8, and we could very possibly be looking at a Worldgorger or heaven forbid a Goblin Sligh deck as our World Champion.   This is by no means ment to be an insult to Carl in anyway, but just an observation that I am not sure that everyone knows.

There is no best deck, there never will be, and to be quite honest I don't think there ever has been.   When a best deck arrives, it isn't because people can't build anything to beat it, its because they don't try.   People here I have noticed time and time again refuse to try something new.   If someone says a card is trash, and exspecially if that someone is a Paragon, the card is quickly disregarded (Deep Analysis).   But if months later that very same card is deemed worthy by those people, it is then preached as the second coming, and considered as a possibility in many decks.   I've said it once, and i'll say it again...  its no wonder us American players sit anxiously awaiting the results of each Dulmen tourney, its because the majority of creativity that happens in the Type 1 circuit, currently happens overseas.

I tip my hat to anyone who comes up with a well built rogue deck, or someone who does significant tweaks to a commonly accepted deck.   The Addition of Duress/Cunning Wish Keeper, or GAT into Hulk were are fine examples of good design.   I really think we need a lot more of that.   Unfortunatly it usually takes a new set coming out for people to come up with a new deck, and then and only then do people start building different decks, when the potential to do so has been there all along.

No deck ever really dies...   but if people totally give up on it, then its definatly going to collect dust on the shelf until someone polishes it up for a second go around.

- Grendal

[Eastman]

It is sort of ironic that discussion on this thread picked up again just when Keeper posted some good results.

[Rico Suave]

Quote (Eastman @ Sep. 16 2003,09:56)It is sort of ironic that discussion on this thread picked up again just when Keeper posted some good results.

Ironic?  

It would've been even more ironic if those players won with Tog.  That's the purpose of this thread, no?

I don't think anybody wants to go around saying that Keeper is dead, just that it's not wise to play Keeper when a better option for control is around.  My point is that those Keeper players could have done just as well, if not better, if they chose Tog instead.

[Grendal]

Quote I don't think anybody wants to go around saying that Keeper is dead, just that it's not wise to play Keeper when a better option for control is around.  My point is that those Keeper players could have done just as well, if not better, if they chose Tog instead.

What u just said is a matter of opinion.   What exactly defines "better"?

Hulk vs Dragon = Favors Dragon considerably, even post-sideboard with Coffin Purges.

Keeper vs Dragon = Favors Keeper considerablye, even more so after sideboarding.

I could list quite a few matchups where there Keeper matchup is just better than the Hulk Matchup is.   If Keeper players are playing the same cookie cutter Keeper that we have seen listed as "Keeper" in the last 2 months, then yes, I agree Hulk is the better deck.   However it is highly likely that Keeper players are innovating there decks, or in some cases (Zherbus/etc..) perhaps,  have opted a new play style vs Hulk.

Hulk is a good deck, it is not a "better option" for a control player, it is "A option".   Your choice of vocabulary alone suggests that you have totally accepted that Hulk is better, and have thrown any possible creativity out the window, opting instead to just to hitch a ride on the band wagon.

Keeper is still winning...  it is still winning tournaments where GAT / Hulk are present.   Your analogy that those same players might have won playing Hulk is true, but I would rebuttle that with saying that its highly likely those very same players, those very skilled players, would most likely have won playing any of the upper tier decks  (Keeper / Staks / Mudd / TnT / whatever...)  Hell, even Sligh for that matter in the hands of someone who has a clue is probably quite vicious.

But we don't often see that because how many players who own all the power, will opt to play a deck that is mono-red or mono-black?   Not many...   which leads us to see the majority of players piloting those decks either lacking in cards or skill...   often times both.

- Grendal

[thorme]

Quote (Grendal @ Sep. 16 2003,06:39)Not to mention without a serious FUBAR having happened at GenCon, Hulk wouldn't have even made the top 8

Can you please explain this assertion?  If you truly believe this than I think you are missing some key facts.

[Triple_S]

The FuBar you described was against another Hulk deck which probably would have taken Carl's place in the t8 anyways.  

Were you actually there and do you actually know the people which you are talking about?

[CrazyCarl]

Quote (Triple_S @ Sep. 16 2003,10:02)The FuBar you described was against another Hulk deck which probably would have taken Carl's place in the t8 anyways.  

Were you actually there and do you actually know the people which you are talking about?

Or Marc could have lost to Josh and Josh could have made Top 8.  Get your story straight before blasting me, k?

Keeper is dead.  Pro-active 3-5 color control is still viable however(and in DESPERATE need of a new name).

[SliverKing]

If you take the same 160 decks and players that were there that day and played that tournament a hundred times, i'd bet on Paragon Hulk winning more than any other deck.  We got screwed in early round pairings, and still all placed highly. Simply put, it was THE deck for that day.  Not to detract from the other players or decks, because there was ample talent on both counts, but if I was a betting man, I'd have bet on Hulk every time.

[Triple_S]

The only performance similar to Hulk in the main event was the performance Shockwave turned in throughout GenCon with his Dragon deck.

[jpmeyer]

:<

The question is not "Is Keeper dead?"  The question is "SHOULD Keeper be dead?"

From initial testing of November T1, I think there will end up being a happy ending for Keeper after all.

[Zherbus]

Keeper blows. Moved.