[Discussion] Gro/GAT and Gro Variants

[Rico Suave]

David:

You know, I'm not sure why you felt it necessary to say all that stuff.  I even said if I saw the same decks, I would run Mis-D too. ;|

The only thing I do disagree with is this:

It's even good against Sligh to some extent (direct damage), Slavery, Trix, and Tendril's...which all tend to run Blue Control elements along with Ancestral and/or Mind Twist.

Well firstly, the defining "sligh" deck is FCG, which has 0 Mis-D targets.  

Secondly, let's look at these "blue control elements" that the decks have.  Mis-D is useful against a grand total of 5 cards in Slavery, Trix, and Tendrils each.  Let's not forget the 3 (Naturalize?) in O.Stompy and 1 in Trinistax.

You can't call Mis-D good against those decks and be serious.  

Even assuming Mis-D is useful against 50% of the decks you'll see, Mana Drain is useful against 100% of them.  And it's really good too, without requiring a pitch card.

But once again, if all you see is Gro and Sui with the occassional Tog decks, then Mis-D is useful against 100% of your matches again.  All I was saying is that against other decks, it's value decreases dramatically.

[DavidHernandez]

@Dr. Sylvan: Ok, then hang on a second while i make up some better numbers...

 

I do recall east coast tourneys having high Keeper reports, but I will withdraw the %.  I'll go dig up some actual numbers with proof from a few areas.  San Diego is definitely running a lot of Keeper, GaT and B/g Void, but we only get 14 to 16 people per week. Still, the Keeper + GaT + Fish/Gay-r numbers are often 50% of the people showing.

That is, if anybody cares (besides me).  

I could just leave it at this: Decks that run Misdirection are winning, specifically Fish, Gay/r, and GaT.  I hypothesize that there is a correlation between Misdirection in the main deck (in quantities of 2 or more) and Winning.  I believe, from the surface of information available, that Misdirection is under-used, underrated, and ready for a "comeback" NOW, regardless of which part of the country you are playing.

Thanks for the input Phil.

@Rico: I wasn't putting you down or flaming...I just have a different view of Misdirection than many people do.  I think it belongs in control decks in quantities of at least three, and few people agree.  

Your post got me very interested in what some of the *actual* numbers are.  I see the last few posts in a very positive light, because if we can bring out something important, then everyone will benefit.  At worst, we can all see a discussion that gives us something to think about.

--Dave.

Edited because I didn't see Rico's post until waaayyyy later....

[Dr. Sylvan]

Further look-see-ing into my still-developing March data indicates that in seven tournaments (56 decks), there are 27 Misdirections (compare to 124 Force of Will), and while compiling the data I think I only saw two or three decks running triple-Misd, with no instances of 4x, several 2x, and mostly 1x. There were 6 Standstill and 2 Dryad-based decks which would be the home of most greater-than-single appearances. (And this is actually the most diverse batch of data I've yet dealt with, geographically, so it's not like this is crazy European stuff.)

Personally, I like the boarded Misdirection for Cunning Wish decks; a trend which I've seen a little more of. (IIRC from my totalling, Rector decks have started packing this measure.) It is currently a card that is rising once again, but I doubt it will ever hit the same level as 4-Gush GAT days. Like Stifle, it's simply there as a factor because it's impossible for decks not to run cards vulnerable to it. "It's all metagaming, baby!" :)

Edit: Corrected numbers because I was including the archetype information from the NJ 2004-03-14 tourny, but do not have the decklists yet for that tournament, which would boost the Misd (and, obviously, FoW) numbers.

[DavidHernandez]

Thanks for doing that!

Dave

[Ric_Flair]

This 4 MisD v. less than 4 MisDs brings up an interesting point.  How much do we prepare for the real metagame v. how much do we prepare for the ideal metagame.  Fact is, I play mostly with Jacob, Jeff, Chris Alexander, and Injectilio.  They are all TMDers and all run Power.  So when I am playing against them, this is pretty darn close to an ideal metagame.  So I have no MisDs in my deck.  They just don't pull their weight.  But in real life, if I were going to any event but the largest of T1 events I would play 2-3 MisDs.  This is more than a "oh, it depends on your metagame comment" this is an attempt to gauge how much we need to take into account decks like Sui, Sligh, and the like.  Fact is, I am more likely to face Trinistax or some other super expensive deck given my playtest partners than I am to face Sui.  What do we do?  Prepare for the ideal or realize we play in the real world?  Settle this issue and I think it will be clear how many MisDs to play.

[Grand Inquisitor]

This is more than a "oh, it depends on your metagame comment" this is an attempt to gauge how much we need to take into account decks like Sui, Sligh, and the like. Fact is, I am more likely to face Trinistax or some other super expensive deck given my playtest partners than I am to face Sui. What do we do? Prepare for the ideal or realize we play in the real world? Settle this issue and I think it will be clear how many MisDs to play.

I don't think this is really the issue in this particular thread.  I'm not going to completely disregard the 'regionalizing' of a deck for a particular metagame as a useful strategy.  However, we're not building a deck for a tournament, we're trying to optimize GAT for a general (what Ric calls 'ideal') metagame.  Rico already pointed out that the top non-control decks, even the current 'sligh' deck, FCG, are not effected by misdirection.  Since only one or two of the top decks (Hulk & Landstill) are worth running misdirection against, you have to decide whether you want to have a good game 1 against these, or run something else (stifle, duress, annull) that has a more broad application.

So since non-control decks don't care about misdirection, and since in larger 'general' metagames control doesn't dominate like it used to, where does that leave us?  You would think it means that misdirection is an obvious cut.  Ok, then why do two of our leading GAT players (Ultima and Dave) argue so vehemently for its inclusion?

When I've run misdirection in high numbers main, its been because I thought enough control decks were competitive so that I wanted to make sure I win game 1, even at the expense of other matchups.  I'm not sure if you can make the case for that right now.  However, given the amount of hype that Hulk has gotten recently, perhaps they are worth it.

Although I really like some things about Ultima's build, he played against SO many control decks in NJ, that the misdirections couldn't help but be good.  Not only do they force through early spells, but they cause the opponent to be reluctant when casting their best control match spells: ancestral recall and deep analysis.

A counter argument to this could be that since Ultima's list has so many ways to get rid of dead cards (brainstorm, FoW, thirst for knowledge), he can afford to run a deck highly metagamed against control.  Perhaps this is how GAT should be built and played.

[Ric_Flair]

Funny Steve that you not only don't pick up on what I was trying to say, but you disavow my comment then say this:

Although I really like some things about Ultima's build, he played against SO many control decks in NJ, that the misdirections couldn't help but be good. Not only do they force through early spells, but they cause the opponent to be reluctant when casting their best control match spells: ancestral recall and deep analysis.

Fact is most people that are not playing budget aggro IRL play control.  Keeper, though pricey, is cheaper to put together than Prison decks, Madness decks, combo, and any bazaar based deck.  So moving up the price curve, after budget we have Landstill, GAT, EBA, and Keeper...all control decks.  All decks that 4 MisDs are good against.  All decks that are more prevalent in the real world than they would be in an idealized metagame.  We need to face facts here--with an unlimited budget some decks would not get played.  So the reason these cards are good and the reason Ultima played so much control was because truly expensive decks can't show up in enough numbers in the real world.  This is why Fish routinely does well.

[DavidHernandez]

GI: I may have taken this thread a little off course with the MisD conversation.  This is why I mentioned starting a thread.  However, I do think that you brought it all back in focus when you said

A counter argument to this could be that since Ultima's list has so many ways to get rid of dead cards (brainstorm, FoW, thirst for knowledge), he can afford to run a deck highly metagamed against control. Perhaps this is how GAT should be built and played.

Ultima played his GAT deck as an aggro deck in certain situations, and as control in others.  He had the flexibility to do that because of how he built it.  

With his success, I think we will see more MisD's in GAT (as people try it out).  Hopefully that will give us good information to make some concrete decisions with.  There are still so many players saying that GAT is dead (or "not an optimal deck") that GAT victories may seem random.  This may be as good as it gets (until somebody breaks open a new card).

G.I. said:

Since only one or two of the top decks (Hulk & Landstill) are worth running misdirection against, you have to decide whether you want to have a good game 1 against these, or run something else (stifle, duress, annull) that has a more broad application.

I think there are more decks that MisD is good against--not just Hulk and Landstill.  It's also good against Slaver, Fish, GAT, Keeper, and any other deck that runs Force of Will.

--Dave.