Sideboarding The Jester vs Dragon

[yespuhyren]

What would you play in the semis and finals had you won?

Had I gone on to the Semis, I would have played Dragon, against my Teammate David.  The matchup is about 50/50 between us.  We tested the night before, and excluding games where he would win turn 2 with starting of Bazaar, Dragon, Mox, Land, Animate, he would not win. He won about 3/4 games like that in a row.  After that, without him getting ridiculous turn 1/2 kills, I won every game for 6 or 7 games in a row.  We played a match for fun afterwards, and he got one turn 2 kill, then I got a good start, with Uba and Wire, wasted TWO of his bazaars, but he managed to draw a third one for the win.  Nothing I can really do when he hits 3 bazaars in the top 16 cards of his library under uba mask.  I had tormod's, but he managed to bazaaar up Necromancy, Intuition, and Lotus.  The only 3 cards that could possibly save him.  Literrally, almost nothing else could, because without Lotus or Necromancy he would have lost.  Intuition didn't matter.  I am fairly confident I could have won this matchup though, as I feel as wel as he did, he played with many mistakes and without getting a broken hand or very lucky, he wouldn't be able to win. 

There is only a 2% Chance of him getting that broken starting on Turn 1, and a 10% chance of getting it by Turn 4.  This is if you don't mulligan.

I have a 9% Chance to get Workshop/Accelerant/Jester's Cap or Chalice in my starting hand, 21% by Turn 4.

If the only way he's winning is with the crazy turn 2/3 kills, I have double the odds of going first turn Jester's Cap or Chalice @ 2.  If he does have force, there is a good chance that he won't have the other cards as well.

Solid top 8 performance - perhaps Cap will spread a little terror locally and might increase the Fish and bad aggro counts in the process?

The numbers for the last tournament said that there was 38% Junk aggro.  This time I only saw 4/5 decks out of the 30 something.  This was great, as my teammate didn't have to pilot through fish decks, which would have been tough matchups because of the hate.  For me, I would have been able to use my 3x Triskelions to help out some.

[dicemanx]

I have a 9% Chance to get Workshop/Accelerant/Jester's Cap or Chalice in my starting hand, 21% by Turn 4.

A resolved, activated Cap doesn't beat WGD. I'm surprised to hear that he's doing so poorly against you. Without Null Rods and Smokestack to fear, the match-up should improve for WGD. If Cap gets resolved and activated, it either won't matter or it might draw the game if the win conditions are nailed. If CotV for 2 resolves, well, where are his 3 Necromancies? This match-up isnt rosy for any Stax/Shop based deck game 1 until some measure of control comes in game 2 in the form of Crypt.

[yespuhyren]

Taking out his Kill is usually my first choice. Chalice for 2 is probably my favorite play against dragon.  All he has left is 3 Necromancies, and if I hit one of my 4 caps, I get rid of those as well.  I'm not saying I would win.  It was around 50/50 in our testing.  Regardless, I'm happy both of us made Top 8.

[goobafish]

This is David, his teamate who played dragon,
I don't think that the dragon/jester matchup is 50/50. Dragon has quite an advantage. For reference I was running the B/U list with Duresses and no Xantids or the like. The fact is that when we tried the match with board after the tournament i won the first two game without going to a game three, even through my hands were pretty good (not broken). Also chalice at 2 is barely anything against me because of my 3 necromancies as dicemanx mentioned. The only big card that hurts me is cap, but even then i can draw the game. I believe this matchup is somewhat 70/30 in dragon's favor.

[yespuhyren]

I don't know the math.  I just know we split the games around 50/50

[Evenpence]

Wow, this is crazy to hear.  I think UbaCap has at least a 70/30 advantage post-side, if you sideboard correctly, and a good matchup (more than 50/50) pre-sideboard.  I defeated a 4-1 Dragon Player 2-0 at Richmond easily (sorry man to say easily, just trying to make a point).

You board out fatties (Karn/Triskelion) although I also had Juggernauts to board out, for Shattering Sprees and Tormod's Crypts.  That way you can lay a Crypt and take out Null Rods.  If he's a good Dragon Player, he'll lay Null Rod down the turn he wants to go off, but that is an ENORMOUS amount of set-up, while Chalice @ 2 takes out Null Rod AND Animate Dead, which doesn't take much setting up at all, just 4 mana.

I find it a little peculiar that most of you are saying Dragon has the fair end of the matchup here when Tormod's Crypt exists.  Goblin Welder also allows for trickery with welding the Null Rod out when you have Tormod's Crypt in play, etc etc.

After Chalice at 2, you can set Chalice at 3 at your leisure (especially if you have a crypt out, and I sided in 4 from the board), cutting off Necromancies.  I did this in Game 1 against the Dragon player at Richmond.  In Game 2, he was forced to look for a fatty in my graveyard to animate (because I crypted/capped all the dragons away), but I boarded all of them (fatties) out, so he was drawing dead off my Bazaar.

I've never lost a game to Dragon in a tournament (playing it at least three times now), and I doubt that it's chalked up to my playskill.  I think the deck actually is very good against Dragon.

[yespuhyren]

Back to the topic of deck optimiztion, the wires were HUGE for me.  Having wires to tap them down with Uba in the play was just awesome, as it just kept removing important permanents from the game.  I greatly underestimated the synergy of the two cards together.  GREATLY.  They are almost definitely staying in the deck as a 4 of for me.  Really, there was nothing BUT the Trikes that underperformed, and thats because I didn't play against any aggro decks.  I also sided them out almost every time for Crypts.

[dicemanx]

You board out fatties (Karn/Triskelion) although I also had Juggernauts to board out, for Shattering Sprees and Tormod's Crypts.  That way you can lay a Crypt and take out Null Rods.  If he's a good Dragon Player, he'll lay Null Rod down the turn he wants to go off, but that is an ENORMOUS amount of set-up, while Chalice @ 2 takes out Null Rod AND Animate Dead, which doesn't take much setting up at all, just 4 mana.

Your SBing and WGD SBing sound pretty terrible. Also, making sweeping, definitive statements and quoting completely unrealistic match-up percentages with a sample size of three is just awesome. You seem to fall into the short sighted mentality that SBing WGD hate automatically improves the match-up; you're forgiven though, because that an intuitive thing to believe. I've been playing WGD on and off for 4 years, and I can tell you that quite often when an opponent oversaturates his deck with hate he improves the WGDs chances, as bizarre and counterintuitive as it sounds. But this is what separates those that rely on theory and those that have tons of empirical evidence that suggest things that go against accepted truths.

WGD fears mana denial from Prison decks most, which means that it might be a little foolish to be SBing in Null Rods on WGDs part unless he's playing some rock solid fetchland/basic land mana base. And like I said, Cap isn't really that fearsome for a few reasons, so it isn't WGDs priority; in fact, a *good* WGD player will be considering a SB of cards like EE, Deed, Pithing Needle, and/or Abeyance to combat the hate coming in from the opponent's SB. The match-up will still be slightly in the Shop decks favor as long as they SBs properly, but even with lowered percentages post SB the better match-up percentage pre-board gives the overall nod to WGD. Cap does have the ability to send the match into game 2 (and hence slightly better numbers), but not because it wins the game - in fact, its important to juxtapose this with the number of games that a mana denial strategy would net (using Null Rod and Smokestack). 

[Evenpence]

Most of my victories have been with Null Rod / Smokestack.  I've seen Dragon board in Null Rod tons of times to stop stuff like Tormod's Crypt, Jester's Cap, and other such things.  Pithing Needle goes under the same solution as Null Rod - Shattering Spree answers it.

Dicemanx, you can't possibly tell me that adding in 4 Tormod's Crypt decreases my matchup against Dragon.  You've been saying how Dragon fears mana denial and whatnot, and I just don't see it.  I've never played Dragon very extensively, but in any of my matches against them over MWS or down at a table, have I ever seen the kind of Dragon deck that you seem to be talking about.  You're probably right though, I definitely should not side in hate cards against Dragon, because you've said so, and continue my losing streak against Dragon.

Maybe you're just the most insane Dragon player ever, I don't know.  I 2-0ed a Dragon deck this previous weekend at Richmond via Chailce at 2 + 3 Game 1 and Jester's Cap Game 2.  When I've seen Dragon win, it usually involves Bazaar, an animate spell, and Dragon in the graveyard.  None of that seems too mana intensive to me, but I'm probably just some stupid noob who has no idea how to play against Dragon.

Actually, Dragon is Diceman's deck.  He made it, so he's probably a pretty good authority on what works against it.  Let's tone down the aggression here, shall we? -Klep

As for me being aggressive, I fully disagree.  You could also interpret Diceman saying this as aggressive:

Your SBing and WGD SBing sound pretty terrible. Also, making sweeping, definitive statements and quoting completely unrealistic match-up percentages with a sample size of three is just awesome. You seem to fall into the short sighted mentality that SBing WGD hate automatically improves the match-up; you're forgiven though, because that an intuitive thing to believe.

Please tell me, Klep, how my post was any different than his?  I'd like to appeal that ruling, if possible.

I also fully disagree with this:

I've been playing WGD on and off for 4 years, and I can tell you that quite often when an opponent oversaturates his deck with hate he improves the WGDs chances, as bizarre and counterintuitive as it sounds. But this is what separates those that rely on theory and those that have tons of empirical evidence that suggest things that go against accepted truths.

[Hydra]

Dragon's ability to combat sideboarding comes from the fact that siding in all that hate generally makes your deck weaker at accomplishing its own strategy.  It's the same concept as Affinity versus SB hate back in Type 2 in 2004: by siding in an ungodly number of hate cards you can slow them down but you have hurt your own ability to win.

You draw all the hate cards while doing nothing, and Dragon just sits on their hand, developing their board position and waiting for the right moment to strike.  Dragon has inevability, so slowing down your own plan only plays into their own.  All the amount of hate in the world doesn't mean much of anything if you can't take advantage of the time the hate buys you.

Technically Dragon may ONLY need a Bazaar and two mana to win, but such a set-up doesn't happen THAT often realistically.  Generally they need to fire off an Intuition/Compulsion/TFK to really set-up properly, and keeping them off three mana or making those three mana spells cost more via Wasteland/Strip Mine/SoR/Tangle Wire/Smokestack while you go after them with a clock is probably the best plan of action in my opinion.  A clock with hate backup is also good, but your strategy seems to be that of boarding out clocks to put in hate, which I can't see as being a proper course of action.

This assumes, of course, that it's a capable Dragon player.  A bad one you could slap around all day with hate.

[Evenpence]

Boarding out fatties is totally the right thing to do, going in favor of over-saturating graveyard hate like Tormod's Crypt, and hate that prevents Crypt from being activated via some shattering sprees.  Contrary to Hydra Belief, I actually can just throw hate their way in the form of chalices for specific numbers so they can't sit on their hand.

Hydra, Fatties are not the way I accomplished wins with the version of UbaCap I was running in Richmond.  I still had Smokestack in that build.  I didn't take out a super-important piece of the deck, like Chalices to board in Tormod's Crypt and the like.  Please tell me what you would have done differently.

Diceman, I would also appreciate your sideboarding strategy with my deck against his, if you really feel you have insight into how to play/sideboard with UbaCap better than I do against Dragon.

And Hydra, the Dragon player I was playing was 4-1.  I hardly doubt that constitutes as a bad Dragon player.

[Moxlotus]

There is a difference between saying something is wrong along with backing up his claim (dicemanx) and being a sarcastic ass (you).

Most of Dragon's wins do NOT come from a Bazaar and 2 mana.  By saying this you clearly haven't seen Dragon play that often.

Contrary to Hydra Belief, I actually can just throw hate their way in the form of chalices for specific numbers so they can't sit on their hand.

That is terrible logic.  You can use that Chalice logic for ANY card in ANY deck. 

And Hydra, the Dragon player I was playing was 4-1.  I hardly doubt that constitutes as a bad Dragon player.

And you don't know if he finished 4-4.  Besides, any idiot can get a good record once--maybe even top 8.  Seeing a guy at a 4-1 table doesn't mean he's a good player any more than everybody that went 0-2 is a bad player.

[Hydra]

When I was a scrub I went 5-1 at a SCG Chicago.  It's not that hard to get good pairings and/or lucky.  I'm not sure how I would board your deck because I've never played it.  I can't give proper specific sideboarding without having ever played the deck, I can only give generalizations for boarding.

You're also assuming they're not boarding in hate of their own.  Last I checked, Chalice dies to Engineered Explosives/Shattering Spree/Oxidize/Rack and Ruin still, and possibly make you waste a Crypt as well, so saying "well they can't do this because of card X" isn't what I'd consider an end-all argument. 

I wasn't saying that you were winning with fatties, I was questioning the wisdom of removing a clock.  Jester's Cap isn't all that effective against Dragon, for reasons stated earlier.  Fatties, on the other hand, actually win if they come down and stay down.

I can't possibly agree with the statement that over-saturating your deck with hate is a "good" plan of action.

[Evenpence]

There is a difference between saying something is wrong along with backing up his claim (dicemanx) and being a sarcastic ass (you).

And I haven't backed up my claims?  How is boarding out fatties terrible?  Please tell me that.

Most of Dragon's wins do NOT come from a Bazaar and 2 mana.  By saying this you clearly haven't seen Dragon play that often.

A)  I never said MOST of the wins happen like that.
B)  I see Dragon play all the time.
C)  The combo in Dragon is definitely not mana-intensive.

That is terrible logic.  You can use that Chalice logic for ANY card in ANY deck.

Just for decks that want to keep things back in their hand.  Hydra had said this:

You draw all the hate cards while doing nothing, and Dragon just sits on their hand, developing their board position and waiting for the right moment to strike.

Which is what I was responding to.  Please read before you flame me.

When I was a scrub I went 5-1 at a SCG Chicago.  It's not that hard to get good pairings and/or lucky.

I'm sure the Dragon player I played would take offense at that.  It IS hard to get consistently good pairings and consistently lucky to get to be 4-1 or 5-1.  Hell, you could attribute me top 8ing both days to a combination of luck and good pairings, but you're not really all that audacious, are you?  You have NO IDEA what this guy had to do to get to 4-1, and you're flat out insulting him (not even knowing who he is) by saying that it's not hard to get to where he got to.

I'm not sure how I would board your deck because I've never played it.  I can't give proper specific sideboarding without having ever played the deck, I can only give generalizations for boarding.

So you've never played the deck, but you're going to tell me my sideboarding strategies are wrong.  Okay.  Just thought you'd like to know how that sounds.

You're also assuming they're not boarding in hate of their own.  Last I checked, Chalice dies to Engineered Explosives/Shattering Spree/Oxidize/Rack and Ruin still, and possibly make you waste a Crypt as well, so saying "well they can't do this because of card X" isn't what I'd consider an end-all argument.

I'm just going to answer this with the fact that I boarded in cards to answer their hate.  I've already talked about the cards that I've used several times to combat hate that they might possibly be boarding in for me, and I expect you to actually find those sentences before tou say that I'm assuming they're not boarding in hate of their own against me.

I wasn't saying that you were winning with fatties, I was questioning the wisdom of removing a clock.

...by siding in an ungodly number of hate cards you can slow them down but you have hurt your own ability to win.

Jester's Cap isn't all that effective against Dragon, for reasons stated earlier.  Fatties, on the other hand, actually win if they come down and stay down.

You can't be serious.

I can't possibly agree with the statement that over-saturating your deck with hate is a "good" plan of action.

How is siding in 4 Tormod's Crypt, a few Shattering Sprees for hate cards (I.E. Pithing Needle, Null Rod, etc etc) over-saturating when all I'm taking out is fatties?

If you guys want to argue further about how Dragon is good against UbaCap or The Jester or anything like that, please either start a new thread or PM me, because this discussion isn't benefitting anyone.

[Hydra]

When I was a scrub I went 5-1 at a SCG Chicago. It's not that hard to get good pairings and/or lucky.

I'm sure the Dragon player I played would take offense at that. It IS hard to get consistently good pairings and consistently lucky to get to be 4-1 or 5-1. Hell, you could attribute me top 8ing both days to a combination of luck and good pairings, but you're not really all that audacious, are you? You have NO IDEA what this guy had to do to get to 4-1, and you're flat out insulting him (not even knowing who he is) by saying that it's not hard to get to where he got to.

Every tournament there's a player who gets lucky and goes far with a good record.  That's how it works.  Was this Dragon player THAT person?  I have no clue, but there's always at least one sub-par player who does well.

I'm not sure how I would board your deck because I've never played it. I can't give proper specific sideboarding without having ever played the deck, I can only give generalizations for boarding.

So you've never played the deck, but you're going to tell me my sideboarding strategies are wrong. Okay. Just thought you'd like to know how that sounds.

I know exactly how that sounds, as you DON'T need to play a deck to be able to tell a strategy is wrong.  Hell, 99% of all critiques given are generally without really playing a deck, so why you seemed shocked by this is truly beyond me.  I HAVE played Dragon, on the other hand, and I've gone over it a lot as of late with Diceman, so I do have an understanding on what does and doesn't work for and against the deck.

Boarding out fatties is totally the right thing to do, going in favor of over-saturating graveyard hate like Tormod's Crypt, and hate that prevents Crypt from being activated via some shattering sprees.

Where you made the statement about over-saturating.

[dicemanx]

There is little point arguing further until you gain more empirical evidence with the match up. You can wax theoretical until you're blue in the face, but it won't change the truth. This is precisely why I rarely start any threads on WGD. In fact, the worse the WGD players or their builds are, the better it suits me.

As you said this is not helping the thread, so its best to drop the issue altogether.

(I do want to say that you're missing the point about oversaturation - one of the contributing reasons to WGD's paradoxical possible improvement in the match-up post board is the switch by the opponent from having a mix of offensive and defensive resources to being completely defensive, which can work against him. I have faced aggressive decks in the past that would board in 4 Crypts, resolve two on turn one with Naturalize or some defensive crap in hand, and end up losing tragically because of the lack of pressure or the ability to stop sweeps like Deed or Abeyance. Nobody decreed that WGD has to win inside of 3 turns; it can have very effective long campaigns if piloted by a skilled enough player who has a decently configured main deck and SB. This is why newer players develop a false sense of security that WGD becomes some sort of "bye" just because they run "hate" for the deck).

You also have to tone it down with the "zomg I'll just Cap him/set CotV for 2 and 3/Spree that Pithing Needle zomg I win" bravado type crap. One thing you'll have to accept is that Shop decks don't draw the "correct" answers or even the mana to cast them consistently, which will lead to wildly variable games where one game you will "destroy" your "skilled" WGD opponent by getting those early CotVs for 2 AND 3, but next you'll get crushed because you drew no answer or no pressure and got goldfished like a scrub turn 3 or maybe turn 10. Once you accept this, and also start accepting that when people defeat you it isnt just because they got "amazingly broken draws", then people might actually meet you half way in the discussions instead of generating poor debate.

[Jacob Orlove]

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