[Free Article] Oathing in the New Year: Top 8

[voltron00x]

Basic tournament report this week, from the Blue Bell tournament on 1/2/10.  I include the Tezz list I almost played, as well as some reasoning behind the Oath list that I ran, sideboarding throughout the event, and so on.  Enjoy!

http://www.starcitygames.com/magic/vintage/18648_The_Long_Winding_Road_Oathing_in_the_New_Year_Top_8.html

[You can find the TO report for this event here: http://www.themanadrain.com/index.php?topic=39581.0 ]

From Twitter:  "Monday Update - Matt Elias attempts to play something other than Oath in Vintage... then changes his mind."

Story of my Vintage life, wrapped up in that sentence... 

[Will]

I liked the article specifically the insight on Oath and coverage of your match with Max Brown that I stayed around for to watch.  At the time everyone knew Brainstorm was the correct card to take, but I personally wasn't sure how superior you thought it was to Yawg. Will in that situation which I now do.  As a whole, I enjoyed reading the tournament report and it was one of the better ones I have read in recent times, but I like articles where you explain things I don't know better.  All in all, good article and a worthwhile read specifically for anyone interested in the workings of Oath.  

[voltron00x]

Thanks Will, I think in the near-future I'm going to write more of a strategic article about the deck, and clear up some misconceptions with this version as compared to Iona Oath / Vroman Oath.

[Gekoratel]

I enjoyed the article as well but had some questions about side-boarding and how the deck approaches matchups post-board.

R1 - Your boarding here makes sense to me, Fire|Ice is only killing Bobs and maybe Vendilion which isn't in all lists.  If you played against an unknown list of BUG would you still board in 2x REB?  If you know they have 2 Trygon then its certainly worth it but boarding it when they don't seems weak.

R2 - Boarding out Duress/Pierce vs. Tezz and boarding in REB seems like a marginal upgrade on cards when you have other cards which aren't that exciting in the matchup.  I feel like I'd rather be casting Duress/Pierce than Mystical Tutor or Merchant Scroll.  Also Rebuild seems poor and the only situation where it would be relevant is if they Tinker->Sphinx.  If you know they aren't on Sphinx do you still leave in Rebuild?  Also I think Pierce would gain value post-board since with adding REB's you are better prepared to fight a true counter war against Tez.  On those kinds of turns even in the mid/late game I could still see getting value out of the Pierce in addition to its obvious strengths in the early game.  I'd lean towards taking out Rebuild + Mystical.

R3 - For the mirror match I know some people board down to 1-2 Oath's where you only taking out a single Oath.  Could you talk in a bit of detail about your theory about the mirror match and how it applies to this boarding strategy.  By leaving in 3 it allows you to run it down when your ahead more often as opposed to having 1-2.  But on the corollary your filling your deck with cards that are bad when your behind.  The rest of boarding seems strong so that only leaves the question of should more than 1 Oath be coming out and if so could likely leave in Thoughtseize.

R4 - We discussed this a bit on the merits of having 4 creatures to survive getting capped but also the sacrifices that it entitles as hitting non-haste creatures will give the Stax opponent more turns.  I'd think that Cap is popular enough that I would want to board up to 4 creatures not to mention having Tinker->Sphinx in the deck provides an additional out to Chalice@2 which should be a common play from BR and potentially from 5c out of the board.  Also why aren't you bringing in Wasteland against Shops?  I'd always want to have more mana sources against a deck that is attacking my lands.  Not to mention there's sometimes when Stax really needs there Workshop and a Waste can be crippling.  I really hate Duress effects against Shops so I'd be tempted to take some more of them out for 2nd Needle and the Wasteland.

Q - I like this boarding strat but would keep in Top because Top is exceptional against heavy discard strategies.  It does get shut down by Null Rod but theres a good chance your opponent will be boarding them out as Null Rod is only marginal against Oath not to mention you still have Ancient Grudge to answer Null Rod.

Thanks for the article.

[2nd_lawl]

I liked the article specifically the insight on Oath and coverage of your match with Max Brown that I stayed around for to watch.  At the time everyone knew Brainstorm was the correct card to take, but I personally wasn't sure how superior you thought it was to Yawg. Will in that situation which I now do.  As a whole, I enjoyed reading the tournament report and it was one of the better ones I have read in recent times, but I like articles where you explain things I don't know better.  All in all, good article and a worthwhile read specifically for anyone interested in the workings of Oath.  

Yea it was a pretty embarrassing mistake, especially considering I had just looked through his deck with sacrament.  It turned out not to have mattered (he could just will next turn to play brainstorm, and I was drawing a blank anyway). Now that I think about it, If that duress had been thoughtsieze I could have taken Iona, and been a very strong favorite to win that game (as he would have had to set up a will with enough mana to hardcast Iona from the yard, before I drew another duress effect to take will, or just won myself.)

[personalbackfire]

I liked the article specifically the insight on Oath and coverage of your match with Max Brown that I stayed around for to watch.  At the time everyone knew Brainstorm was the correct card to take, but I personally wasn't sure how superior you thought it was to Yawg. Will in that situation which I now do.  As a whole, I enjoyed reading the tournament report and it was one of the better ones I have read in recent times, but I like articles where you explain things I don't know better.  All in all, good article and a worthwhile read specifically for anyone interested in the workings of Oath.  

Yea it was a pretty embarrassing mistake, especially considering I had just looked through his deck with sacrament.  It turned out not to have mattered (he could just will next turn to play brainstorm, and I was drawing a blank anyway). Now that I think about it, If that duress had been thoughtsieze I could have taken Iona, and been a very strong favorite to win that game (as he would have had to set up a will with enough mana to hardcast Iona from the yard, before I drew another duress effect to take will, or just won myself.)

I am pretty sure that he would have had waited at-least a turn to play will then brainstorm. If this is the case it then buys you an additional turn to come up with some sort of win since he has to put the Iona on top then Oath into it. If you were drawing dead it doesn't make a difference anyways.

[2nd_lawl]

If Iona oath continues to gain in popularity, I might add a karakas to the sideboard.

[voltron00x]

R1 - Your boarding here makes sense to me, Fire|Ice is only killing Bobs and maybe Vendilion which isn't in all lists.  If you played against an unknown list of BUG would you still board in 2x REB?  If you know they have 2 Trygon then its certainly worth it but boarding it when they don't seems weak.  

I could be mistaken, but I believe that most BUG Fish lists have run Trygon in the past, and I certainly expect them to going forward given the popularity of Oath.  I think its safe to assume that you want REBs - even if they don't have Trygon (which, again, I would be surprised), REB has a lot of value.  It definitely helps Oath resolve through Force of Will and counters V. Clique to protect your Oath in hand.  My pre-red lists ran specific spot removal like Smother on occasion, but really with BUG Fish the only creature you really fear is Trygon.  You know REB kills Trygon and that their deck has plenty of other targets, so I think its the right call regardless.

R2 - Boarding out Duress/Pierce vs. Tezz and boarding in REB seems like a marginal upgrade on cards when you have other cards which aren't that exciting in the matchup.  I feel like I'd rather be casting Duress/Pierce than Mystical Tutor or Merchant Scroll.  Also Rebuild seems poor and the only situation where it would be relevant is if they Tinker->Sphinx.  If you know they aren't on Sphinx do you still leave in Rebuild?  Also I think Pierce would gain value post-board since with adding REB's you are better prepared to fight a true counter war against Tez.  On those kinds of turns even in the mid/late game I could still see getting value out of the Pierce in addition to its obvious strengths in the early game.  I'd lean towards taking out Rebuild + Mystical.

I've found that Pierce actually loses value in games 2/3, b/c people play around it to the best of their ability.  Given this fact, I'm ok with cutting one, because I still get some advantage out of the fact that they're now playing around a card I probably don't have - this costs the Tezz player tempo, which is what I need to win.  Mystical Tutor and Merchant Scroll are actually key cards for this build against Tezz.  The first helps you find & abuse Will for value, which is the one thing this build does that older King James lists couldn't do (b/c of Blessing and Chalice).  The second finds Ancestral Recall.  Both help find FoW if you need extra protection for a key spell, and both provide support against being blown out by an early Tinker, which is one of the ways Tezz can still beat me.  Also, I'm actually hihgly concerned about BOTH Tinker targets.  A turn 1 Inkwell is difficult to race; Rebuild should stay in the deck, IMO.  It helps cover against all their win conditions, to some extent.  Finally, REB addresses what Duress does not:  A topdecked bomb like Tinker or Gifts Ungiven or Ancestral Recall.  I've found that REB is miles ahead of both Pierce and Duress in games 2 & 3.  I'm also one of the few people that plays the card in Oath, so often I end up in a situation where my opponent is playing around Spell Pierce and I have REB for the blowout.

EDIT:  Also, Mystical finds Ancient Grudge; its actually an ideal Mystical target since its ability to 2-for-1 resets the card you "lose" via Mystical.

R3 - For the mirror match I know some people board down to 1-2 Oath's where you only taking out a single Oath.  Could you talk in a bit of detail about your theory about the mirror match and how it applies to this boarding strategy.  By leaving in 3 it allows you to run it down when your ahead more often as opposed to having 1-2.  But on the corollary your filling your deck with cards that are bad when your behind.  The rest of boarding seems strong so that only leaves the question of should more than 1 Oath be coming out and if so could likely leave in Thoughtseize.

I'm going to write an article about this, but briefly:  I don't like going below 3 Oaths, because my list IS geared to set up Oath + Orchard more effectively than Iona Oath / Vroman Oath.  4x Impulse plus 2x Wasteland and 1x Strip is a big advantage, but you actually need to find and resolve Oath to capitalize on Orchard advantage before the opponent can regain parity.  I've never liked going below 3 Oaths.  The exception would be, and has been, against Oath decks that don't have Key/Vault, because there, they can ONLY win by playing Oath (outside of the legendary hard-cast, of course), so you know they're going to try and play it at some point.  As far as getting behind, the list should be relatively strong at staying ahead of most similar builds (which almost always have less land destruction), however a big part is just taking aggressive mulligans.

R4 - We discussed this a bit on the merits of having 4 creatures to survive getting capped but also the sacrifices that it entitles as hitting non-haste creatures will give the Stax opponent more turns.  I'd think that Cap is popular enough that I would want to board up to 4 creatures not to mention having Tinker->Sphinx in the deck provides an additional out to Chalice@2 which should be a common play from BR and potentially from 5c out of the board.  Also why aren't you bringing in Wasteland against Shops?  I'd always want to have more mana sources against a deck that is attacking my lands.  Not to mention there's sometimes when Stax really needs there Workshop and a Waste can be crippling.  I really hate Duress effects against Shops so I'd be tempted to take some more of them out for 2nd Needle and the Wasteland.

On the contrary, I haven't found Cap to be all that common (in our metagame).  Specifically in this match-up, Twaun hadn't run them in the past, and does run Null Rod, so I had no reason to expect Jester's Cap.  As I noted in the article, there is some value to bringing in Tinker + Sphinx, but I haven't tested it enough to determine - I do know that in past lists, I lost against Stax because I Oathed into Inkwell when I needed to hit a haste creature.  That's led me to adjust my strategy.  However, I do believe I missed that I sideboarded in Wasteland when I wrote the article; I definitely remember bringing it in.  I believe I swapped it in for Sensei's Top, which is mediocre against a deck with Null Rod.  I always leave in Thoughtseize against B/R Stax b/c that deck runs both Bob and Welder.  BR Stax is a slightly different animal than 5C Stax, so I think the strategy needs to be a little bit different.  Twaun definitely caught me off-guard with that Helmline, which had worked really well for me a month ago (well, to the extent that anything worked well in a tournament where I went 2-3).  That said, a 2nd Needle is quite possibly right, on the off-chance they do have Gargadon.  It's not like there aren't a million Needle targets in that deck (Wasteland, Strip Mine, Welder, Bazaar, Shaman, etc).

Whenever you're game for testing Tinker + Sphinx to refine the Stax SB strategy, I am definitely game.

Q - I like this boarding strat but would keep in Top because Top is exceptional against heavy discard strategies.  It does get shut down by Null Rod but theres a good chance your opponent will be boarding them out as Null Rod is only marginal against Oath not to mention you still have Ancient Grudge to answer Null Rod.

I agree 100%.  Taking out Top was a mistake.

[Suicideking]

From Twitter:  "Monday Update - Matt Elias attempts to play something other than Oath in Vintage... then changes his mind."

Story of my Vintage life, wrapped up in that sentence... 

I can relate.

I want to write a bit more when I wake up fully but the one thing I noticed is the maindeck fire/ice.  Why not darkblast.  They serve a similar function but darkblast is like a fifth orchard in the mirror.  With oath rising in popularity oath pilots will need to be prepared for the mirror and Dblast and loam are the best.

[voltron00x]

From Twitter:  "Monday Update - Matt Elias attempts to play something other than Oath in Vintage... then changes his mind."

Story of my Vintage life, wrapped up in that sentence...  

I can relate.

I want to write a bit more when I wake up fully but the one thing I noticed is the maindeck fire/ice.  Why not darkblast.  They serve a similar function but darkblast is like a fifth orchard in the mirror.  With oath rising in popularity oath pilots will need to be prepared for the mirror and Dblast and loam are the best.

Darkblast has some scary drawbacks, especially in that particular list that I ran.  I only have 2 creatures, so I don't want to flip them when I dredge.  Running Krosan Rec would probably fix that problem, in hindsight.  Still, Fire/Ice has a few minor benefits:  it pitches to Force of Will, and you can find it with Merchant Scroll.  There's also always the dream of killing a Tezzeret with 2 loyalty counters after it tutors up Time Vault.

I also think using Darkblast against Orchard is a losing plan, since you effectively never draw again.  Getting yourself out of a hole that way is exceedingly difficult.  That said, you're right, it's an awesome option against Welder and Bob.

EDIT:  Also, interestingly enough, all three of my "mirror" games against Eric revolved around Key/Vault or Tinker/Sphinx.  I suspect this will happen a lot as Oath lists prepare more for both the mirror match and for common hate cards.

[vroman]

I don't like going below 3 Oaths

I board down to zero oaths in the mirror.

[Killane]

I don't like going below 3 Oaths

I board down to zero oaths in the mirror.

What's your plan if they do the same?

The last tournament I played Oath at both myself and my opponent did the same thing. He hardcast a Simic Sky Swallower on turn 12 and won.

[voltron00x]

I don't like going below 3 Oaths

I board down to zero oaths in the mirror.

You play a different deck, with different objectives.  I don't play Gifts or Tezz.  Oath remains my "big spell" win-con post-SB; I just work an advantage to make sure it still works in my favor.  Your list can bank on Gifts, Tezz, and Tinker as big-spell Oath subs post-sb plus try to steal value off the opponent's Oaths.  My list includes cards to make sure my opponent doesn't get ahead on my Oaths and attempts to assemble Key/Vault in a different way (more overlapping filter spells / effects instead of "big spells" like Tinker / Gifts); I have noticed that lately lists that emulate yours are gravitating toward Ancient Grudge and more Thoughtseize / Duress effects, so the blending of the two decks really continues to increase.

Regardless, this doesn't surprise me at all, but it doesn't really affect the ability of my build to get ahead on Spirit tokens in the mirror, and still win using Oath.  It also doesn't necessarily mean that it's correct.

[voltron00x]

I don't like going below 3 Oaths

I board down to zero oaths in the mirror.

What's your plan if they do the same?

The last tournament I played Oath at both myself and my opponent did the same thing. He hardcast a Simic Sky Swallower on turn 12 and won.

That is LOLs.  I'm also surprised anyone is still rocking Simic Sky Swallower...

[hvndr3d y34r h3x]

EA and SotSW surprising easy to hard cast

[Gandalf_The_White_1]

Turn 2, I lay out an Orchard and pass, and Bernie tries an end of turn Ancestral Recall. I respond with my own Recall, which I’d just drawn. Bernie plays Force of Will on my Recall, and I have to choose between using my Force of Will on his Force or his Recall. Ultimately I choose his Recall, so neither of us draw three, and play continues.

I think that it would have been better to FOW his FOW, because you have the chance of drawing REB or Pierce (or another FOW) off your Ancestral to counter his, resulting in a blow-out.  And even if you don't draw REB/Pierce, both Ancestrals resolving doesn't put you at any disadvantage.

[voltron00x]

Turn 2, I lay out an Orchard and pass, and Bernie tries an end of turn Ancestral Recall. I respond with my own Recall, which I’d just drawn. Bernie plays Force of Will on my Recall, and I have to choose between using my Force of Will on his Force or his Recall. Ultimately I choose his Recall, so neither of us draw three, and play continues.

I think that it would have been better to FOW his FOW, because you have the chance of drawing REB or Pierce (or another FOW) off your Ancestral to counter his, resulting in a blow-out.  And even if you don't draw REB/Pierce, both Ancestrals resolving doesn't put you at any disadvantage.

I agonized over this for a while during the game.  I'm still not 100% sure what the right call is, or if there even is one, definitively.  My concern was that I'd whiff on REB / Spell Pierce, and end up with Bernie hitting fast mana and taking over the game during his main phase.

[Gekoratel]

I've found that Pierce actually loses value in games 2/3, b/c people play around it to the best of their ability.  Given this fact, I'm ok with cutting one, because I still get some advantage out of the fact that they're now playing around a card I probably don't have - this costs the Tezz player tempo, which is what I need to win.  Mystical Tutor and Merchant Scroll are actually key cards for this build against Tezz.  The first helps you find & abuse Will for value, which is the one thing this build does that older King James lists couldn't do (b/c of Blessing and Chalice).  The second finds Ancestral Recall.  Both help find FoW if you need extra protection for a key spell, and both provide support against being blown out by an early Tinker, which is one of the ways Tezz can still beat me.  Also, I'm actually hihgly concerned about BOTH Tinker targets.  A turn 1 Inkwell is difficult to race; Rebuild should stay in the deck, IMO.  It helps cover against all their win conditions, to some extent.  Finally, REB addresses what Duress does not:  A topdecked bomb like Tinker or Gifts Ungiven or Ancestral Recall.  I've found that REB is miles ahead of both Pierce and Duress in games 2 & 3.  I'm also one of the few people that plays the card in Oath, so often I end up in a situation where my opponent is playing around Spell Pierce and I have REB for the blowout.

EDIT:  Also, Mystical finds Ancient Grudge; its actually an ideal Mystical target since its ability to 2-for-1 resets the card you "lose" via Mystical.

I can see what your saying about Mystical Tutor being decent in the matchup, I likely just have in my head how poor it is in the Tezzeret mirror but clearly Oath is trying to do different things, also finding Grudge does sound spicy.  I'm not sure about Merchant Scroll because it seems like a card that would help you in the mid to late game but ideally you want to be winning in the early game because as the game goes longer Tezzeret becomes more advantaged.  It could be better in the early game than I'm giving it credit for.  

I still flat out disagree about leaving in Rebuild, right now everyone is either running Inkwell or Sphinx.  For arguments sake I'm going to make up some percentages to highlight my thoughts.  Lets say Tez is going to cast a turn 1-2 Tinker ~15% of the time, within that subset there are still going be games where you come out ahead in the counter war especially with 2 Reb in your deck.  So we'll say that Tez is resolving Tinker 10% of the time.  Inside of that 10% regardless of the creature you still have at least 3 turns to assemble Vault/Key which isn't great but its not an auto-lose scenario.  If that creature is Inkwell and not Sphinx you still can nail down an Oath and be in position to race it especially if you can find Time Walk along the way or don't have an Island in play.  I think the value of having Rebuild in your deck for that 10% isn't worth the value of having an extra Duress which also fights turn 1-2 Tinker and supports the rest of your strategy as a whole.

[voltron00x]

I've found that Pierce actually loses value in games 2/3, b/c people play around it to the best of their ability.  Given this fact, I'm ok with cutting one, because I still get some advantage out of the fact that they're now playing around a card I probably don't have - this costs the Tezz player tempo, which is what I need to win.  Mystical Tutor and Merchant Scroll are actually key cards for this build against Tezz.  The first helps you find & abuse Will for value, which is the one thing this build does that older King James lists couldn't do (b/c of Blessing and Chalice).  The second finds Ancestral Recall.  Both help find FoW if you need extra protection for a key spell, and both provide support against being blown out by an early Tinker, which is one of the ways Tezz can still beat me.  Also, I'm actually hihgly concerned about BOTH Tinker targets.  A turn 1 Inkwell is difficult to race; Rebuild should stay in the deck, IMO.  It helps cover against all their win conditions, to some extent.  Finally, REB addresses what Duress does not:  A topdecked bomb like Tinker or Gifts Ungiven or Ancestral Recall.  I've found that REB is miles ahead of both Pierce and Duress in games 2 & 3.  I'm also one of the few people that plays the card in Oath, so often I end up in a situation where my opponent is playing around Spell Pierce and I have REB for the blowout.

EDIT:  Also, Mystical finds Ancient Grudge; its actually an ideal Mystical target since its ability to 2-for-1 resets the card you "lose" via Mystical.

I can see what your saying about Mystical Tutor being decent in the matchup, I likely just have in my head how poor it is in the Tezzeret mirror but clearly Oath is trying to do different things, also finding Grudge does sound spicy.  I'm not sure about Merchant Scroll because it seems like a card that would help you in the mid to late game but ideally you want to be winning in the early game because as the game goes longer Tezzeret becomes more advantaged.  It could be better in the early game than I'm giving it credit for.  

I still flat out disagree about leaving in Rebuild, right now everyone is either running Inkwell or Sphinx.  For arguments sake I'm going to make up some percentages to highlight my thoughts.  Lets say Tez is going to cast a turn 1-2 Tinker ~15% of the time, within that subset there are still going be games where you come out ahead in the counter war especially with 2 Reb in your deck.  So we'll say that Tez is resolving Tinker 10% of the time.  Inside of that 10% regardless of the creature you still have at least 3 turns to assemble Vault/Key which isn't great but its not an auto-lose scenario.  If that creature is Inkwell and not Sphinx you still can nail down an Oath and be in position to race it especially if you can find Time Walk along the way or don't have an Island in play.  I think the value of having Rebuild in your deck for that 10% isn't worth the value of having an extra Duress which also fights turn 1-2 Tinker and supports the rest of your strategy as a whole.

I'm not sure if its really possible to validate those %, since every Tezz player is going to play differently.  Certainly Tezzeret CAN achieve a much higher % of T1 or T2 Tinkers if the pilot is so inclined; all it takes is T1 Vamp, Mystical, DT, or Tinker already in hand, or Merchant Scroll for Mystical.

In any case, from experience testing and in tournaments, I've found that one of the most common ways that I still lose to Tezz is due to Tinker.  For example, we fight a counter war over Ancestral Recall, Gifts, Tezz, or Will, and both players expend their resources.  Tezz then top-decks Tinker (or any of the other noted ways to find it) and plays it off the top for the win.  Duress can't stop that.  You also need to account for the fact that Tezz runs at least equal counterspells (after SB, if they don't bring in REB, they still have 4x Force 4x Drain vs my 4x Force 2x REB and max 2x Pierce) and often has as many Duress / Thoughtseize as I have (4).  There's therefore by no means a guarantee that I can fight a succesful battle over Tinker, especially given Tezz's ability to draw more cards in many builds.  You can also get into the awkward spot of the opponent having Sphinx in play, and having to figure out how to win with Iona and Hellkite. 

I'm not willing to just accept that I can't beat Tinker if it resolves.  That's not a good game plan for me, b/c I've identified Tinker as one of the main ways that I lose the game against Tezzeret.  Rebuild is never dead - it pitches to Force and cycles.  If it addresses a strategic vulnerability, I can't imagine why I would want to move it to the SB.

[Yare]

How do you feel about cutting Krosan Reclamation overall?

[Gekoratel]

I'm not sure if its really possible to validate those %, since every Tezz player is going to play differently.  Certainly Tezzeret CAN achieve a much higher % of T1 or T2 Tinkers if the pilot is so inclined; all it takes is T1 Vamp, Mystical, DT, or Tinker already in hand, or Merchant Scroll for Mystical.

This is true but from playing the Tez side of the matchup I'd rather be using the listed cards to get ahead either with Recall or find more disruption.  I'd choose lines of play that make the games go longer where my superior disruption and card advantage can kick into effect rather than finding Tinker and crossing my fingers.  But I'll agree that this comes down to playstyle and also if you are running Sphinx an early Tinker is stronger.

In any case, from experience testing and in tournaments, I've found that one of the most common ways that I still lose to Tezz is due to Tinker.  For example, we fight a counter war over Ancestral Recall, Gifts, Tezz, or Will, and both players expend their resources.  Tezz then top-decks Tinker (or any of the other noted ways to find it) and plays it off the top for the win.  Duress can't stop that.  You also need to account for the fact that Tezz runs at least equal counterspells (after SB, if they don't bring in REB, they still have 4x Force 4x Drain vs my 4x Force 2x REB and max 2x Pierce) and often has as many Duress / Thoughtseize as I have (4).  There's therefore by no means a guarantee that I can fight a succesful battle over Tinker, especially given Tezz's ability to draw more cards in many builds.  You can also get into the awkward spot of the opponent having Sphinx in play, and having to figure out how to win with Iona and Hellkite.

I totally agree that Tezz has a stronger disruption package which is why my 15% having it turned into resolving 10% of the time rather than say 7.5%.  I value your thoughts since you have way more testing and tournament experience with the matchup than myself.  Rebuild is also a 3 mana answer to Tinker so your Tezz opponent may be able to get to Drain mana or have REB before you can fire it off.  Also my post was more referring to the early game Tinker and what threat it poses than the midgame Tinker which from your explanation is more of a threat than I thought.

I'm not willing to just accept that I can't beat Tinker if it resolves.  That's not a good game plan for me, b/c I've identified Tinker as one of the main ways that I lose the game against Tezzeret.  Rebuild is never dead - it pitches to Force and cycles.  If it addresses a strategic vulnerability, I can't imagine why I would want to move it to the SB.

You can beat a resolved Tinker either by Oath + TW(Inkwell) or Vault/Key.  Since Tinker at any point in the game is such a threat I can see leaving in the deck but there is a cost which is that your disruption suite will be slightly worse without that extra Duress.  These are all marginal effects since its one card but it certainly impacts the strengths of opening hands.  Imagine this 7 card hand post-board: Orhcard, (Duress/Rebuild), Fetch, Impulse, Force, Merchant Scroll, Mox Pearl.  If you have the Rebuild then your better prepared to fight a Tinker but the latter hand is better against Tez on average.  Anyhow there's nothing wrong with doing whats been working.

[voltron00x]

How do you feel about cutting Krosan Reclamation overall?

Conflicted.  The card does some cool things, but it doesn't address the main problem I still think comes up with 2 creatures:  drawing one of them.  I'm probably going to go back to 3 creatures main, 2 Hellkites and 1 Iona, despite the fact that its "unpopular" and "uncool", it has put up results for me and tested fine overall.

I think really the decision is one of the following:

Iona + 2 Hellkite Overlord (or possibly Iona + Hellkite + Akroma for certain metas)

OR

Iona + Krosan Rec + Timetwister

I'm not sure if its really possible to validate those %, since every Tezz player is going to play differently.  Certainly Tezzeret CAN achieve a much higher % of T1 or T2 Tinkers if the pilot is so inclined; all it takes is T1 Vamp, Mystical, DT, or Tinker already in hand, or Merchant Scroll for Mystical.

This is true but from playing the Tez side of the matchup I'd rather be using the listed cards to get ahead either with Recall or find more disruption.  I'd choose lines of play that make the games go longer where my superior disruption and card advantage can kick into effect rather than finding Tinker and crossing my fingers.  But I'll agree that this comes down to playstyle and also if you are running Sphinx an early Tinker is stronger.

In any case, from experience testing and in tournaments, I've found that one of the most common ways that I still lose to Tezz is due to Tinker.  For example, we fight a counter war over Ancestral Recall, Gifts, Tezz, or Will, and both players expend their resources.  Tezz then top-decks Tinker (or any of the other noted ways to find it) and plays it off the top for the win.  Duress can't stop that.  You also need to account for the fact that Tezz runs at least equal counterspells (after SB, if they don't bring in REB, they still have 4x Force 4x Drain vs my 4x Force 2x REB and max 2x Pierce) and often has as many Duress / Thoughtseize as I have (4).  There's therefore by no means a guarantee that I can fight a succesful battle over Tinker, especially given Tezz's ability to draw more cards in many builds.  You can also get into the awkward spot of the opponent having Sphinx in play, and having to figure out how to win with Iona and Hellkite.

I totally agree that Tezz has a stronger disruption package which is why my 15% having it turned into resolving 10% of the time rather than say 7.5%.  I value your thoughts since you have way more testing and tournament experience with the matchup than myself.  Rebuild is also a 3 mana answer to Tinker so your Tezz opponent may be able to get to Drain mana or have REB before you can fire it off.  Also my post was more referring to the early game Tinker and what threat it poses than the midgame Tinker which from your explanation is more of a threat than I thought.

I'm not willing to just accept that I can't beat Tinker if it resolves.  That's not a good game plan for me, b/c I've identified Tinker as one of the main ways that I lose the game against Tezzeret.  Rebuild is never dead - it pitches to Force and cycles.  If it addresses a strategic vulnerability, I can't imagine why I would want to move it to the SB.

You can beat a resolved Tinker either by Oath + TW(Inkwell) or Vault/Key.  Since Tinker at any point in the game is such a threat I can see leaving in the deck but there is a cost which is that your disruption suite will be slightly worse without that extra Duress.  These are all marginal effects since its one card but it certainly impacts the strengths of opening hands.  Imagine this 7 card hand post-board: Orhcard, (Duress/Rebuild), Fetch, Impulse, Force, Merchant Scroll, Mox Pearl.  If you have the Rebuild then your better prepared to fight a Tinker but the latter hand is better against Tez on average.  Anyhow there's nothing wrong with doing whats been working.

Maybe the right question isn't Rebuild vs Duress, but whether another card should SB out in place of Duress?  I'll have to look back over the list.  Don't misunderstand, I'm not saying having as many Duress effects as possible isn't terrific. 

[healo]

Have you concidered adding singleton Engineered Explosives as an universal answer to anything ?

Of course, its good to have Ancient Grudge and Fire/Ice to adress some specific threats.But on the other hand, EE could be an overall suprising and definite way to deal with some most dangerous hate cards we see lately vs. Oath.

As a bonus, you can always use it as a Tinker target, which is awsome either main, or SB.

Main problem here probably is that it cant be found with MT, MS, etc.. And it doesnt pitch to Force.

edit: I tend to find answers for things, that ultimately stops Oath as in my meta, there are lots of Fish decks and latey. Im tired facing all those Quasalis, Seals, Trygons, Megas and the worst thing - Ray of Revelation. Any suggestion other than playing other deck is appriciated.

[mr.grim]

When I come across the mirror ,I feel its about the orchards. IM still very big on waste / extirpaite. Tho i did not run waste or strip in my build I played at bluebell. I also like tyrant lord cause he is super easy to cast. I came across the same mirror goals as Matt tho,It did seem to come down to who got vault/key first.
@matt...great arti. ..I do really think that three fatties is the way to go. As fantastic as Iona is,I still wanted to see both the dragons more often. Do you feel that fire/ice is better then wipe away?

I am currently running tezz in my build. I think hes ok to good.Pros being hes a two way win con , cons being I give away 1/1 duders. My current list of could be's are...
1.tinker
2.fof
3.tfk.
If anyone has any insight let me know.