Interest in Modified B/R List Tournament?

[bluemage55]

If Gush is a dominant engine, why was there only one gush deck in the Waterbury Top 8?  Just curious...

There's probably a few reasons, among which include a shifting metagame, the fact that Waterbury was the first major tournament for blue players to test out Snapcaster, etc.

My argument that Gush is a dominant engine is based on an analysis of the last two complete months, August and September.  Using Morphling.de and an analytical process that I credit to you, we can look at the top 8s from tournaments with at least 33 players and get the following:

26.8% Gush
25% Shop
17.9% Drain
10.7% Bazaar
8.9% Rod
7.1% Oath
3.6% Ritual

[Diakonov]

Give me a moment to channel the spirit of Smmenen through my PC.

hummmmmmmm  Gush is popular but at 26.8% is clearly not dominant, as you can see, shops are directly behind it at 25%.  We've seen archetypes get all the way up to 40% at other points in time.  [/smmenen]

I personally believe that Gush is a bit overrated.  It's explosive, sure, but if you don't go off, the tempo setback can be rough.  I still prefer Dark Confidant.  Obviously Gush makes more sense in certain lists, though, such as certain Tendrils builds and that new Doomsday deck.

[diopter]

Gush decks are no longer necessarily homogenous in their gameplan.

[bluemage55]

Give me a moment to channel the spirit of Smmenen through my PC.

hummmmmmmm  Gush is popular but at 26.8% is clearly not dominant, as you can see, shops are directly behind it at 25%.  We've seen archetypes get all the way up to 40% at other points in time.  [/smmenen]

I personally believe that Gush is a bit overrated.  It's explosive, sure, but if you don't go off, the tempo setback can be rough.  I still prefer Dark Confidant.  Obviously Gush makes more sense in certain lists, though, such as certain Tendrils builds and that new Doomsday deck.

Lol.

I'm not saying that it's overpowered and needs to be restricted again, but it should be readily apparent that if you restrict Drain, Ritual, Shop, and Bazaar, Gush will clearly dominate whatever's left.

[Mindstab_Thrull]

I personally believe that Gush is a bit overrated.  It's explosive, sure, but if you don't go off, the tempo setback can be rough.  I still prefer Dark Confidant.  Obviously Gush makes more sense in certain lists, though, such as certain Tendrils builds and that new Doomsday deck.

I'm not saying that it's overpowered and needs to be restricted again, but it should be readily apparent that if you restrict Drain, Ritual, Shop, and Bazaar, Gush will clearly dominate whatever's left.

.. Which is basically what I said before, at least in the short term. However, this isn't a JMS-Cawblade-in-Standard situation. There, the problem was a matter of not having the proper tools to fight it in the format. Here, we have plenty of useful tools, including (but not limited to) "meh, just win first." If Gush gets too powerful for the meta, people will just simply build with that in mind.

Mindstab Thrull
Eater of sanities

[bluemage55]

There, the problem was a matter of not having the proper tools to fight it in the format. Here, we have plenty of useful tools, including (but not limited to) "meh, just win first."

With Drain, Ritual, Bazaar, Null Rod, and Shop restricted, there is no option that wins first.  Gush would be the fastest deck.

If Gush gets too powerful for the meta, people will just simply build with that in mind

Using what exactly?  Gush is vulnerable to shops... but shops won't be around.  A proper fish deck could be built to deal with Gush... except that there's no Null Rod.  Not to mention that there's no reason that Gush can't also adapt to hate, considering it has a powerful and versatile engine to build around.

[Smmenen]

If Gush is a dominant engine, why was there only one gush deck in the Waterbury Top 8?  Just curious...

There's probably a few reasons, among which include a shifting metagame, the fact that Waterbury was the first major tournament for blue players to test out Snapcaster, etc.

My argument that Gush is a dominant engine is based on an analysis of the last two complete months, August and September.  Using Morphling.de and an analytical process that I credit to you, we can look at the top 8s from tournaments with at least 33 players and get the following:

26.8% Gush
25% Shop
17.9% Drain
10.7% Bazaar
8.9% Rod
7.1% Oath
3.6% Ritual

Fascinating...

Any chance you could write a more detailed analysis?  I didn't do a Q2 report, so your August/Sept report could be quite valuable?   

[MaximumCDawg]

That list seems really random.  Restrict Elvish but not Simian SG?  Restrict Helm but leave Dark Depths alone?  Did you compile it from tournament results?

[serracollector]

No I just assumed red Rits and Red Guide would be about Nulled due to the restriction of Goblin Charblecher and Empty the warrens.  The reason i selected ESG was to slow down GW beats.  Teeg would be house in this meta I think. Also with the restriction of Dark Ritual, the dark depths combo deck loses a lot of speed.

[bluemage55]

Any chance you could write a more detailed analysis?  I didn't do a Q2 report, so your August/Sept report could be quite valuable?

Done.

I did realize during my more detailed write-up that I included a tournament I should not have, so the percentages have changed a bit.