[Free Podcast] SMIP # 10: Five Vintage Scenarios!

[serracollector]

Yea but one could also say that they are running Gush, and giving them Mox Emerald could allow them to cast fastbond, and go off.  In todays meta with so many tutors, and blue draw engines, a pile of 4 moxen, and jace, is well, extremely hard to seperate.  4 Lands, and jace could still be bad given they have a Bond/Gush in hand.  Honestly I am not sure if enuff info is given to make a "right" decision, moxen or lands.

[Metman]

Great podcast guys.  I really like the talk at the end regarding the way we think and act using shortcuts and pattern recognition to process more information as I think it is important, not only in terms of Magic but the way we view the world around us.  The ability to be aware that we may be looking at things incorrectly, or correctly for that matter, is both interesting and valuable.  

[Joblin Velder]

If permissible, I'd like to expand on the Fact or Fiction splitting question.

If it seems generally agreeable that a split of four lands vs. Jace is optimal for those five cards, how would your split change if the Fact instead revealed:

Mox Ruby
Mox Emerald
Mox Jet
Mox Sapphire
Jace the Mind Sculptor

I think this will underscore the declining marginal return to lands that Steve was getting at.  Since we're limited (usually) to one land per turn receiving four lands at once is not significantly different from receiving three lands.  There's no such restriction however on Moxen so the calculus changes drastically.

I know how I would split that pile.  How would you do it?

I think this is one of those FoFs where there is a "right" answer that is largely irrelevant.

[diopter]

Sweet podcast as per the usual.

I would never put you on Dredge on that opener. Turn 1 go with a grip of 7 practically telegraphs multiple Forces and bomb. If you were holding 4 or 5 I would seriously consider you as Dredge though.

Regardless it likely doesn't matter for the Shop player - I know I would probably walk into MBT with my most explosive hand - Shop Mox Chalice Golem. I think you lose to a number of mediocre Shop hands though, like land mox sphere with second turn land sphere, or tomb chalice 1. A read of your opponent is very important: if he/she is an experienced Shop player that wouldn't keep trash, you may be better off keeping the hand.

It is a very difficult decision if you know the opponent is playing a Gush variant. Your odds of drawing 1 or more lands in the first 3 turns is approx. 60%. Of these games you probably win, say, 80%. Of the games where you don't draw land in the first three, you probably win 10%. So in sum you have a 52-48 edge.

Simple math here and it can tip quickly to 60-40 or higher if your opponent mulls at all. However if it is indeed a 50/50 proposition I think you'd be better off mulling.

[Smmenen]

It would be nice if more folks answered the question of the day.  Thanks

- Public Service Announcement.

[saspook]

It would be nice if more folks answered the question of the day.  Thanks

- Public Service Announcement.

I listened to the podcast while driving, and I did hear the qotd, but if it was included in the first post, I might remember it and provide an answer.

[evouga]

Is there really no merit to the Jace+2 lands vs. 2 lands split?

If I'm playing shops, I would seriously consider it, depending on the hand. With Wasteland and spheres but no early Golem, I would be much more worried about giving my opponent land drops than an uncastable Jace.

[Killane]

If I'm on shops, I'd be more inclined to split is Jace plus one land vs. 3 lands.  The 2/2+Jace split.gives them an obvious choice, whereas this split gives the the chance to screw up, and makes it harder to resolve the Jace if they keep it.

When is SMIP 11 coming out? I miss these.

[Smmenen]

It's been posted: http://www.themanadrain.com/index.php?topic=43762.0