staying ahead of workshops

[desolutionist]

So I haven't played Vintage competitively this past year (taking breaks from this game is definitely a good thing) and it seems to me that a certain blue draw engine has sort of drifted away from the mainstream.  Instead we have the "Suicide Jace Vault" decks that I thought were made obsolete when blue mages were on a Gush high.
 
I believe the summer of 2011 was the summer of Gush.  Even Paul Mastriano switched to a Gush engine.  And ultimately, it was a combination of Bob and Gush that proved to be the top performer. 

Coming back into the game after another hiatus Spring 2011, Allen Fulmer pointed out to me that Espressso Shops was the best deck and practically no one was playing a strong blue deck.  Espresso looked really good on paper, but I knew from experience that there was something wrong with 4x Gush not being played.  We through a pile together that was basically just a combination of the best cards and a Gushbond engine.  We metagamed it for Shops with maindeck cards like Ancient Grudge and Nature's Claim and it worked beautifully; East Coast Wins was one of the best decks I've ever played.  I actually believe its better than the Meandeck "Bob Gush" version when it comes to blue mirrors, but as they proved, Bob is really good for going the distance against things like Slash Panther and whatever else you'll encounter at Worlds.

So basically what happened is Workshops evolved.  Raf Forino and Nick Detwiler work so diligently on their Workshops that no matter what we (blue mages) will play, Workshops will figure out a way to beat it.   And then its time to change.  This will continue for as long as those two are playing Vintage.  I've seen this first hand.  These two sit down and analyze everything about the top performing blue deck and pick it apart.  It's almost as if once you win a tournament with a brew, it's time to start brewing something different. You have to stay ahead of these guys because for whatever reason, Workshops is a popular deck to play.  And these guys keep it on a competitive level.

[Commandant]

Plently of people metagame properly, this is nothing new.

[desolutionist]

Specific people respond to specific players and this is where the tournament is decided.  Joe Brown, for example, has a certain "joe brownish" element to what cards he has; hell have a vendiliion clique in a painter deck as the 61st card.  Nothing new maybe, but it is strategy nonetheless to think... How can I use what I know to my advantage?  You start with what you know. Justin Kohler will play Bomberman in the next vintage tournament.   Bomberman is nothing to mess around with either. He's gonna start with Tolarian Academy, Mana Drains, and a Gifts Ungiven. Now how can I use that to my advantage?  I certainly don't want to play into Mana Drain,  EoT instances to put me ahead would be the way to go; perhaps fact or fiction that adopts the artifact mana plan that is pushing the burning tendrils deck.

[median]

One card that's been strong for me is Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas, especially in lists like the Burning Long list that have lots of artifact mana. I can cast it off two mana sources and a ritual. If one of those is a mox then I have a 5/5 on turn one. He's been working as tinker 2-5 for me. I would start with the burning long list and switch the duresses for Xantids and the Oaths for Tezzerets, then try and fit in Force of Wllls.
I think that would be the stronger deck to take down workshops while still having a game against other decks.

EDIT: the reason for including Tezzeret over the superior Oath is because I would like Force of Will. I think having both of those available to me turn one would merit the significant changes I propose.

[desolutionist]

One card that's been strong for me is Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas, especially in lists like the Burning Long list that have lots of artifact mana. I can cast it off two mana sources and a ritual. If one of those is a mox then I have a 5/5 on turn one. He's been working as tinker 2-5 for me. I would start with the burning long list and switch the duresses for Xantids and the Oaths for Tezzerets, then try and fit in Force of Wllls.
I think that would be the stronger deck to take down workshops while still having a game against other decks.

EDIT: the reason for including Tezzeret over the superior Oath is because I would like Force of Will. I think having both of those available to me turn one would merit the significant changes I propose.

That's interesting because when Chrome Mox was unrestricted, it seemed like no one really wanted anything to do with it.  I think everyone can agree it can be good against Workshops.  Permanents are good against board control strategies. We've already seen Dark Confidant work as an effective counter measure since it draws into moxes and lands and keeps a permanent on the table to sacrifice to Smokestack and Tangle Wire.  Chrome Mox not only powers out the turn 1 Draw7, but it stays on the table to pay for Spheres on the next turn.

Just for discussion, what do you want to Force of Will specifically? 

[median]

I'd like to Force of Will the first lock piece. If they over extend to play a Lodestone Golem, or tap out for a Chalice at two (major concern these days) Forcing that first lock piece essentially adds up to be a free time walk, and if I'm on the draw, basically corrects the draw disadvantage.  

[nedleeds]

Forcing that first lock piece essentially adds up to be a free time walk, and if I'm on the draw, basically corrects the draw disadvantage.  

This type of statement baffles me. He made a land drop, may have cast other spells ... and mind rotted you. But you time walked? Having to force of will something on the draw in vintage is a significant decision and can often mean losing the game anyway if you are unable to recoup the lost cards.

[median]

Forcing that first lock piece essentially adds up to be a free time walk, and if I'm on the draw, basically corrects the draw disadvantage.  

This type of statement baffles me. He made a land drop, may have cast other spells ... and mind rotted you. But you time walked? Having to force of will something on the draw in vintage is a significant decision and can often mean losing the game anyway if you are unable to recoup the lost cards.

So the important stuff here is,
1) I'm on the draw, -I'm up one card
2) time walk cost a card to cast (IE the time walk itself)

Casting a free force of will costs one card plus the force of will itself. This ends up putting it on par in card parity with the time walk if I was on the play.
Also importantly, my opponent is down by one threat. This matters significantly is the workshop match because they will usually have at the most three threats in a good hand, -less if they mulliganed.   I'm not worried about the moxen and mana my opponent played, just the stuff that going to stop me from winning. If I'm on the draw and can negate what will impact my turn one then I will likely win turn one.

Having to force of will something on the draw in vintage is a significant decision and can often mean losing the game anyway if you are unable to recoup the lost cards.

Just imagine how many dead cards I would have in my hand if a chalice @ 2 resolved.

[vaughnbros]

Forcing that first lock piece essentially adds up to be a free time walk, and if I'm on the draw, basically corrects the draw disadvantage.  

This type of statement baffles me. He made a land drop, may have cast other spells ... and mind rotted you. But you time walked? Having to force of will something on the draw in vintage is a significant decision and can often mean losing the game anyway if you are unable to recoup the lost cards.

So the important stuff here is,
1) I'm on the draw I'm up one card
2) time walk cost a card to cast (IE the time walk itself)

Casting a free force of will costs one card plus the force of will itself. This ends up putting it on par in card parity with the time walk if I was on the play.
Also importantly, my opponent is down by one threat. This matters significantly is the workshop match because they will usually have at the most three threats in a good hand, -less if they mulliganed.   I'm not worried about the moxen and mana my opponent played, just the stuff that going to stop me from winning. If I'm on the draw and can negate what will impact my turn one then I will likely win turn one.

Time walk replaces itself and allows you to drop a land.  Force of will makes you lose an additional card and does not affect your land drops at all.  They really aren't comparable cards at all.

Having to force of will something on the draw in vintage is a significant decision and can often mean losing the game anyway if you are unable to recoup the lost cards.

Just imagine how many dead cards I would have in my hand if a chalice @ 2 resolved.

What shops player is dropping turn 1 chalice at 2?  That means I don't have to worry about spheres for the rest of the game and in which case that's awesome for me.

[median]

Time walk replaces itself and allows you to drop a land.  Force of will makes you lose an additional card and does not affect your land drops at all.  They really aren't comparable cards at all.

I feel negating someone's turn is equivalent to a time walk, Jacob Orlove wrote an excellent article called putting it all together (http://www.starcitygames.com/magic/misc/10512_Putting_It_All_Together.html) that explains this.

Having to force of will something on the draw in vintage is a significant decision and can often mean losing the game anyway if you are unable to recoup the lost cards.

Just imagine how many dead cards I would have in my hand if a chalice @ 2 resolved.

What shops player is dropping turn 1 chalice at 2?  That means I don't have to worry about spheres for the rest of the game and in which case that's awesome for me.

I can cast a burning wish for shattering spree at any other chalice #. Chalice @ 2 is all I really care about.

[vaughnbros]

Time walk replaces itself and allows you to drop a land.  Force of will makes you lose an additional card and does not affect your land drops at all.  They really aren't comparable cards at all.

I feel negating someone's turn is equivalent to a time walk, Jacob Orlove wrote an excellent article called putting it all together (http://www.starcitygames.com/magic/misc/10512_Putting_It_All_Together.html) that explains this.

That would be true if you were negating their turn, but you aren't.  This has already been stated earlier, but I'll restate it they can still cast other spells and they still got to use their land drop...

Having to force of will something on the draw in vintage is a significant decision and can often mean losing the game anyway if you are unable to recoup the lost cards.

Just imagine how many dead cards I would have in my hand if a chalice @ 2 resolved.

What shops player is dropping turn 1 chalice at 2?  That means I don't have to worry about spheres for the rest of the game and in which case that's awesome for me.

I can cast a burning wish for shattering spree at any other chalice #. Chalice @ 2 is all I really care about.

Casting burning wish into shattering spree is a lot of resources to expend.  Chalice at 1 means you would need to spend 1RRR to kill their chalice.  A chalice at 0 means that you won't have a lot of your artifact mana to hit the 1RR you need to blow that up.  And this is all without any sphere effects in play...

[median]

Time walk replaces itself and allows you to drop a land.  Force of will makes you lose an additional card and does not affect your land drops at all.  They really aren't comparable cards at all.

I feel negating someone's turn is equivalent to a time walk, Jacob Orlove wrote an excellent article called putting it all together (http://www.starcitygames.com/magic/misc/10512_Putting_It_All_Together.html) that explains this.

That would be true if you were negating their turn, but you aren't.  This has already been stated earlier, but I'll restate it they can still cast other spells and they still got to use their land drop...

As i said earlier, I will be winning on my turn one so the land drops and mana are useless.

Having to force of will something on the draw in vintage is a significant decision and can often mean losing the game anyway if you are unable to recoup the lost cards.

Just imagine how many dead cards I would have in my hand if a chalice @ 2 resolved.

What shops player is dropping turn 1 chalice at 2?  That means I don't have to worry about spheres for the rest of the game and in which case that's awesome for me.

I can cast a burning wish for shattering spree at any other chalice #. Chalice @ 2 is all I really care about.

Casting burning wish into shattering spree is a lot of resources to expend.  Chalice at 1 means you would need to spend 1RRR to kill their chalice.  A chalice at 0 means that you won't have a lot of your artifact mana to hit the 1RR you need to blow that up.  And this is all without any sphere effects in play...

The chalice at two is unanswerable for modern storm lists preboard, I'm using stephen menendian's burning long and shrewarmies Burning tendrils lists as a baseline for what a modern storm deck looks like. I'll take very hard to deal with over imposible any day of the week.

Edit:

For what it's worth I'm only advocating force of will for situations where a chalice at two happens. I haven't tested it and I don't know what's coming out for it. I just know I don't want to auto loose to a turn one chalice at two or other workshop shenanigans.

[vaughnbros]

Time walk replaces itself and allows you to drop a land.  Force of will makes you lose an additional card and does not affect your land drops at all.  They really aren't comparable cards at all.

I feel negating someone's turn is equivalent to a time walk, Jacob Orlove wrote an excellent article called putting it all together (http://www.starcitygames.com/magic/misc/10512_Putting_It_All_Together.html) that explains this.

That would be true if you were negating their turn, but you aren't.  This has already been stated earlier, but I'll restate it they can still cast other spells and they still got to use their land drop...

As i said earlier, I will be winning on my turn one so the land drops and mana are useless.

Having to force of will something on the draw in vintage is a significant decision and can often mean losing the game anyway if you are unable to recoup the lost cards.

Just imagine how many dead cards I would have in my hand if a chalice @ 2 resolved.

What shops player is dropping turn 1 chalice at 2?  That means I don't have to worry about spheres for the rest of the game and in which case that's awesome for me.

I can cast a burning wish for shattering spree at any other chalice #. Chalice @ 2 is all I really care about.

Casting burning wish into shattering spree is a lot of resources to expend.  Chalice at 1 means you would need to spend 1RRR to kill their chalice.  A chalice at 0 means that you won't have a lot of your artifact mana to hit the 1RR you need to blow that up.  And this is all without any sphere effects in play...

The chalice at two is unanswerable for modern storm lists preboard, I'm using stephen menendian's burning long and shrewarmies Burning tendrils lists as a baseline for what a modern storm deck looks like. I'll take very hard to deal with over imposible any day of the week.

Edit:

For what it's worth I'm only advocating force of will for situations where a chalice at two happens. I haven't tested it and I don't know what's coming out for it. I just know I don't want to auto loose to a turn one chalice at two or other workshop shenanigans.

Stephen's list does not consistently win on turn 1 especially if you are talking about discarding two cards from your hand.  The deck much more commonly wins turn 2.

The biggest issue with adding force to his decklist is currently it is not playing enough blue cards to support it.  You are talking about adding 4 force and at least 4 other blue cards to have a decent blue count.  That means you are also advocating finding space for some combination of preordain, gitaxian probe, tezzeret, show and tell...

Wouldn't it be easier to just add an answer to chalice at 2?  Even just fitting in a main deck Empty into the list and you can just ignore their chalice at 2.

[median]

If you scroll up I advocate 4 tezzeret, agent of bolas to up the blue count (also a 4 CMC win condition). I've been playing around with stephens list and as I said I don't know what to cut for the force of will or if they would be worth it. I doubt I'll know next week and in the end the idea will probably get shelved once somebody puts up results with something. But that's where I would start if I wanted a rock solid workshop match that also interacted with other decks.
My personal brew wins 60-80% of it's games turn one. I'm counting a turn one oath, or tinker -> robot a win.

[vaughnbros]

If you scroll up I advocate 4 tezzeret, agent of bolas to up the blue count (also a 4 CMC win condition). I've been playing around with stephens list and as I said I don't know what to cut for the force of will or if they would be worth it. I doubt I'll know next week and in the end the idea will probably get shelved once somebody puts up results with something. But that's where I would start if I wanted a rock solid workshop match that also interacted with other decks.
My personal brew wins 60-80% of it's games turn one. I'm counting a turn one oath, or tinker -> robot a win.

If you are counting turn 1 oath and tinker bot is going to happen almost 50% on its own.  I don't think you can really say that these are auto wins though.  Mishra's factory can definitely beat an inactivated oath and phyrexian metamorph can definitely beat tinker bot.  In the end workshops isn't the only problem match up.  Its also counter heavy blue decks.  Your force of wills and tezz's don't really help those match ups as much as you need them to.  I've found cutting the oaths for bobs, a 3 color mana base and more main deck disruption to be more effective than the original list.

[shrewarmies]

For what it's worth I'm only advocating force of will for situations where a chalice at two happens. I haven't tested it and I don't know what's coming out for it. I just know I don't want to auto loose to a turn one chalice at two or other workshop shenanigans.

If you are worried about chalice for two then I would suggest playing a Chain or Repeal in addition to X Rebuild + X Hurkyl's. Forcing Chalice to be at three different costs make it very hard for your shop opponent to stop you being able to bounce certain lock pieces (or all of them) which are holding you back. Rebuild is particularly powerful as they have to spend 6 Mana (disregarding spheres) for the Chalice which equates to a whole turn, even later in the game. Your additional acceleration pushes you past spheres (in the early turns) so you can generally get to Rebuild mana faster than your opponent can to Chalice it.

As Vaugnbros puts it, having an actual win condition maindeck (Empty) is another way around chalice at two. That way they are only cutting off DT and Cabal Ritual for your storm plan. Without access to Will it may be a smaller storm count but if you throw enough Goblins at a problem there will be no problem. At least there will be less Goblins...


About Force, I originally had Force in my list but I eventually cut it because, as people have been pointing out, I was only running 12 other Blue spells which was not enough to force twice from my opening hand + Natural draws. Adding Tezzeret AoB may help this but I would question it's role in an otherwise Storm orientated deck. I have played Tezzeret AoB and have loved it as a 5/5 in the early couple of turns can smash through so much, but it's such a dead draw when storming I would avoid it. You want to win your games before your opponent has the chance to stabalise, Tezzeret AoB does not help that plan. If you are boarding it in it may be useful if you want a easier game against the decks uncapable of deal with a 5/5 or two until you blast them with the final ability, but if you are bringing both Tezz AoB and Force in your SB is looking very very small. If you have playsets of both in the main, why don't you lose some of the acceleration, add Bobs and just play and artifact heavy Bob Tendrils list?

I would not consider Tinker> Bot a win by any stretch. Oath maybe close to but Tinker certainly not. Every deck as answers to Tinker, even the decks it has been great against in the past. MUD can metamorph, Dredge can race and Fish carries Swords.

[desolutionist]

Force of Will is so good that it permits the use of some suboptimal cards just because they're blue.  I think we've seen this with Jace, the Mind Sculptor.  I'm not saying that Jace is a bad card, but it falls short when compared to everything that was used before it (Gifts Ungiven, Merchant Scroll, Thirst for Knowledge); I've played Jace in TPS and a majority of the time it was just there to pitch to Force.  Except, its also a fine play if you don't have anything else because it will draw into what you need.  With Tezzeret AOB, I'm only seeing it as a blue card that will pitch to Force.  You could play it, totally changing your game plan, but it seems kind of awkward to me; you'll be sitting with unused Rituals in your hand and have all your chips on a 5/5 Chrome Mox.  I'm not convinced Force of Will is totally necessary, or even plausible, but I would start with some extra blue cards in the form of Fact or Fiction, Mystical Tutor, Frantic Search, etc.  These cards are mostly going to be RFGed, but they have the possibility of getting what you need to win.

[median]

Force of Will is so good that it permits the use of some suboptimal cards just because they're blue.  I think we've seen this with Jace, the Mind Sculptor.  I'm not saying that Jace is a bad card, but it falls short when compared to everything that was used before it (Gifts Ungiven, Merchant Scroll, Thirst for Knowledge); I've played Jace in TPS and a majority of the time it was just there to pitch to Force.  Except, its also a fine play if you don't have anything else because it will draw into what you need.  With Tezzeret AOB, I'm only seeing it as a blue card that will pitch to Force.  You could play it, totally changing your game plan, but it seems kind of awkward to me; you'll be sitting with unused Rituals in your hand and have all your chips on a 5/5 Chrome Mox.  I'm not convinced Force of Will is totally necessary, or even plausible, but I would start with some extra blue cards in the form of Fact or Fiction, Mystical Tutor, Frantic Search, etc.  These cards are mostly going to be RFGed, but they have the possibility of getting what you need to win.

The reason I liked tezzeret is that he's a good turn one play, I can't reliably get  on turn one for jace. Frantic search and thirst knowledge are what I see as set up cards and I see very limited space for cards like that in what I'm working with. I like the idea of fact or fiction and gifts though, depending on what I get from them, and what I have going in, I can win on the spot. My problem is I want a deck that reliably wins or makes fundamental plays, on turn one. It's very acceptable to win much later, and I may have to accept that. 

[gkraigher]

As i said earlier, I will be winning on my turn one so the land drops and mana are useless.

This statement is arrogant and wrong.  My top 8 deck list from GenCon Worlds ran 4 Mental Missteps in the board.  

I chose to run Mental Missteps over Chalice of the Void for 5 reasons.  1)  I once lost a game with chalices for 0, 1, and 2 in play.  An opponent can play around them with ingot chewer.  Essentially, all chalice does is delay the game, it doesn't win , and rarely nets card advantage.  2) Mental Misstep always gets a card.   Occasionally a great card, an Ancestral Recall, a key Steel Sabotage, Nature's Claim, or, best yet, a Tutor.    When a tutor gets countered unexpectedly, your opponent is left without his perceived line of play, and that wins games faster than wasteland.   3) Any opponent has boarded out all missteps after game 1 because that was the plan.  Their defenses are down and you won't board them back in game 3 because you would be playing around a sideboard card I don't need to win.  4) Misstep is great against dredge, answering all their answers except for ingot chewer.  5) You find yourself on the draw, often.  Misstep is greater than Chalice on the draw 100% of the time.  

I would recommend any MUD deck not playing kuldotha forgemaster to cut chalice for mental misstep.  

If you were wondering, I went 7-1 in swiss, getting the 2nd seed.  Then I lost to Blaine Christiansen for a second time in the first round of the finals.  The culprit was my sideboard, I should have run duplicant over triskelion.  It really showed in game 3 when I drew 3 triskelions to his 2 wurmcoil engines.  7-0 vs everyone but Blaine, who I was 0-2 against.  The snow-covered island got boarded in a lot, vs. ghost quarter and in the mirror on the draw (better than a sphere effect).  I had expected to play it vs. path to exile, but the situation never came up.