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Author Topic: Um.. Judge.. Foil.. FORCE OF WILL  (Read 12079 times)
boggyb
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« Reply #30 on: May 09, 2014, 12:04:51 pm »

It's arbitrary in the sense that it's completely up to Hasbro what the supply is, and they have no consistent or good rubric for determining what gets reprinted, when, and in what quantity. That is determined per their fiat. So, yes of course the market determines price points by supply and demand, roughly, but the supply is completely arbitrary, so therefore the price is arbitrary as well.
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AmbivalentDuck
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« Reply #31 on: May 09, 2014, 12:28:14 pm »

Quote
Market will drive the price, not a dartboard.

...except Hasbro effectively has a local cartel with this game.  So it's almost entirely supply driven, especially as the design teams have become more and more adept at crafting metagames.

I don't see the contradiction.

It is still driven by the market and not arbitrary.
Sort of. Think about how much money Hasbro is forgoing by not selling directly top-priced singles at ~10% below market. Ie. Why not sell freshly printed Misty Rainforests at $50 each?

Even with recourse to claiming that the market is in a bubble, Hasbro is certainly failing to maximize their profit by not providing printing supply to meet demand. While printing additional copies of standard mythics would undermine their ability to sell sealed product, failure to print non-reserve list  (which was itself a stupid decision) Legacy and Modern staples is simply poor business. Like I showed with the fetchlands, their price would necessarily crash on a reprint. Wizards seems to think an obscene secondary market helps sales of sealed product, but that's questionable at best.
« Last Edit: May 09, 2014, 12:32:36 pm by AmbivalentDuck » Logged

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quicksilvervii
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« Reply #32 on: May 09, 2014, 12:35:27 pm »

It's arbitrary in the sense that it's completely up to Hasbro what the supply is, and they have no consistent or good rubric for determining what gets reprinted, when, and in what quantity. That is determined per their fiat. So, yes of course the market determines price points by supply and demand, roughly, but the supply is completely arbitrary, so therefore the price is arbitrary as well.

Hasbro only has so much control.

Supply in circulation is not the same as supply available to purchase on the market.

Price is demand driven just as much as supply.  See price of staples vs price of Dwarven pony.

They obviously don't have enough supply of staples in circulation for most people to be happy, sure, but price speculators and hoarders aren't making this any easier.
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AmbivalentDuck
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« Reply #33 on: May 09, 2014, 12:57:41 pm »

price speculators and hoarders aren't making this any easier.
They could end that overnight. Tarmogoyf: the Market Floodening. Or From the Vault: Fetchlands, available at your local Walmart.
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« Reply #34 on: May 09, 2014, 01:06:28 pm »

All you have to do is prove 1 time that you'll willing to keep printing till the price comes down to were you want it and the speculators will leave the market. I don't think there's enough volume on reserve list cards to support speculation.
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Norm4eva
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« Reply #35 on: May 09, 2014, 05:24:26 pm »

Reprints do not necessarily drive anything down.

Everyone always points to BoP. BoP is a lousy example because it pretty much did not drop until Noble Hierarch was printed; it saw a buttload of printings for years and was almost never *not* a 10-15 dollar card, even the white border assy Standard ones. Like seriously, it took a decade of reprints and then getting kicked in the beak by Hierarch to truly topple its price point.

When MMA came out I talked to my LGS owner to see what he thought the market impact would be. He said it went like this -- (well, kind of like this - I'm ignorant as sin when it comes to Fancy Econ Words, so he summed it up)

New printings of Goyf and Jace *raise* demand more than they raise supply -- because the hype is enough to drive sales to the point where people aren't just closing in on a playset of Goyfs; there's a bunch of people opening their first Goyf, and now they naturally are compelled to think they might have a shot at the 4x. Of course *some* will sell or trade, but by and large one person generates that 4x interest and offsets the number of traders/sellers. At the same time, sellers are able to price both New and Old Goyf as unique items, because they are the same in-game, not 'in spite' of it. So their actual real-world rarity (not the rarity color on their expansion sym) is individual to themselves; there are X Future Sight Goyf, and there are Y Modern Masters Goyf, and each one being unique while also being Tarmogoyf means their prices are not affected by each other -- except they are, because demand. IOW -- it need only rise.

It's totes inconsistent and I don't even and I'm sure someone will tell me why that is incorrect, or why TCGPlayer.com shouldn't be trusted with their price ticker which verifies that same phenomenon for the most part - I mean holy hell, it's a $200 card, damn near. Blaaah. Duals are one thing, but a Green creature? Christ on a crumb cake!
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« Reply #36 on: May 09, 2014, 08:07:52 pm »

Wizards seems to think an obscene secondary market helps sales of sealed product, but that's questionable at best.

I believe you are finally starting to see what is really going on here.

We know certain things:
1.) Wizards can print whatever (non-RL cards) they want, whenever they want.
2.) They would make a bunch (whatever that means) of money doing it.
3.) They don't.

Probably the best way to reconcile this, since WotC is a business, is to follow the money.  Not the make-believe money they could make, but the money they are making.

I believe that the continuation of a very antiquated and horribly unfit (for the games current player base) is twofold: Standard and Limited.

Wizards has said with it's reprints that it wants you to constantly buy into Standard and Limited.  Wizards really only wants to sell it's new set.  When they drop a turd on Eternal with something like Theros, how are they going to sell it to us?  In fact, how are they going to sell it at all?  Standard is how; you want to play, you need to pay (even if you think the set sucks).  Limited fuels this too, the cards don't even need to be good, just work together well.  They actually believe that we'll be priced out of Eternal and then pay into the never ending cycle of Standard.  I have no idea if this actually works, but anecdotal evidence seems to point to yes.

This really doesn't have to be a cloak-and-dagger conspiracy theory, or some nefarious plan to screw us over.  It's just flat business sense.  Wizards wants to sell as much of it's new set as possible, ergo the best way to do that is to make it clear that the easiest and cheapest way to play the game is Standard and Limited.  Take for example Theros, which even from the Standard kids who have played for less than a year, say is pretty bad from a constructed POV, is the BEST SELLING SET OF ALL TIME.  Which tells me and, no doubt tells them, that what they are doing (and probably more importantly, not doing) is working.

It's sad to say, but we won't see real mass reprints until they game has begun to fail.  Once multiple sets fail to sell like hotcakes, even when they are mostly disliked, will they really feel they need to change anything.
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AmbivalentDuck
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« Reply #37 on: May 10, 2014, 12:27:34 pm »

You can say that, but at some point revised duals top $1k and everyone looks around trying to figure out who's willing to pay sports car prices for an EDH deck. While the abstract value of these cards is definitely increasing, it's partially because there's just so little supply BECAUSE the prices keep rising faster than inflation. I'm seriously considering selling out of paper Magic before the end of the summer just to make sure there's still a greater fool around willing to actually pay market prices for my collection.
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Smmenen
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« Reply #38 on: May 11, 2014, 05:01:36 am »

They opened around $760 on eBay. Wow.
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Soly
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« Reply #39 on: May 11, 2014, 05:05:01 am »

They opened around $760 on eBay. Wow.

I think their realistic price will be $400ish after the initial rush is done.  All these foils drop from their opening rate after the early adopters buy theirs.
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« Reply #40 on: May 11, 2014, 05:57:24 am »

You can say that, but at some point revised duals top $1k and everyone looks around trying to figure out who's willing to pay sports car prices for an EDH deck. While the abstract value of these cards is definitely increasing, it's partially because there's just so little supply BECAUSE the prices keep rising faster than inflation. I'm seriously considering selling out of paper Magic before the end of the summer just to make sure there's still a greater fool around willing to actually pay market prices for my collection.

Do you really think Wizards really cares that kids won't be able to play duals in EDH?  I don't think they actually do at all.  You can still play without them at almost no disadvantage in EDH, as long as you aren't playing 5 color.

Thing is, I didn't get into Magic to make money, so I am not getting out to.

700 seems like a fine starting place for these foil Forces.  I'll be looking for these near 300 in a few months.
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boggyb
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« Reply #41 on: May 12, 2014, 06:50:50 pm »

Holy shitski!

http://www.ebay.com/itm/DCI-Foil-Force-of-Will-Judge-Promo-Awesome-/281333677250?pt=Trading_Card_Games_US&hash=item4180cb3cc2
http://www.ebay.com/itm/Magic-The-Gathering-MTG-Force-of-Will-Judge-Foil-Promo-/191170072197?pt=Trading_Card_Games_US&hash=item2c829fce85
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Bakalias
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« Reply #42 on: May 13, 2014, 05:16:54 am »

SCG are selling them at 999.99 as well, so...
http://sales.starcitygames.com/carddisplay.php?product=567474
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