Overview of the Format, before it all changes

[Smmenen]

If you are behind, well that's your fault.  What I'm going to do here is give a breif overview of the environment.  I was waiting to do this for a while now, but it's all irrellevant as everything, and I mean everything changes after Mirrodin.

It took a while to figure it all out, but after testing every new deck after I got back from England, I came to some obvious conclusions.

Long's Burning Desire, specifically, the build I developed in the EVF thread, is the best deck in type one right now.  There is no doubt about it, properly played, this deck should win every tournament.  More on that later.

Second, Tog is the second best deck in type one.  Tog has the capacity to deal with almost any deck, it is uber powerful, is fully hybridized as a combo/control deck, and can win on turn 4 without too much difficulty.  But more importantly, it's capacity to actually have a statistical shot at beating every deck with a greater than even chance against against all the decks but three indicate that it is a very solid deck to play.  The only reason I wouldn't play this deck is becuase you can just blitz by people with the stupid combo deck listed above.   One thing I hate about this deck is that like all control decks, it wants the right mana ratio.  It doesn't want to topdeck too much land or too little.  I also hate hands with this deck that have one land and a brainstorm/ancestral but you get no more land with it.  

Welder Mud.  This deck has a very good shot against Tog with Wastelands, Worb, Kegs, Karns, Smokestacks, Spheres, Tangle Wires, and Welders with alot more hate coming in after SBing.  A good tog player needs the proper sb to help alleviate the pressures of this deck.  The problem with this deck is that it is not as consistent as tog.  And so while it will likely beat tog in any given matchup 2/3, in a larger statistical sampling, the inconsistency starts to wear down on it.  It also has an at least 40% chance of beating long becuase it can get and play sphere on turn one or two with that consistency.  However, it requires experience against Long, aggressive mulliganing, and a lack of experience on the part of hte long player on how to handle Mud for Mud to be very successful in that matchup.

Dragon.  This deck sits right below the threshold for tier one.  It is poweful simply becuase it is a natural answer to Tog.  Tog Should be the lightning rod of type one right now as it won the championship, and nothing can really be done about long.  Dragon's best matchup in the upper tier is Tog becuase it doesn't win as quickly either by actually winning (long) or by shutting down the game (mud) as fast as Tog.  If the tog deck has to take more than a few turns, Dragon can start to really abuse the Squee/Bazaar engine for which Tog has no great answer.  Once that happens, Tog is in a losing position.  That said, after SBing Tog really hoses this deck.   Moreover, Dragon is basically a pile with animates, dragons, squees, and other janky sub-optimal conditional cards.  I realy enjoy playing this deck until my bazaar gets wasted and I have to get compulsions becuase I intuitioned for my second bazaar.  Then you have the situation of having bazaar and yet not even having more than one squee becuase it just so happened that three squees were in the bottom 35 cards and you can't cast intution or it was countered.  This deck also has problems casting FoW more than once.  And adding duress doesn't really help.  Also, this deck doesn't run Brainstorm.  Which sucks.  This deck wins in part becuase it has an extremely broken combo and a very subtle and well designed combo, as well as incomprehensible rules.  

Those are what I consider the top 4 decks in the pre-mirrodin environment.  The top three are the only real tier one.  Beyond that you have Neo-Academy, Rector decks, and Fish, as well as well designed Keeper.  

Venguer Masque.  My problem with this deck is similar to my problems with actual Mask.  It wants to put a creature in to play and then win over the course of two turns.  Even Tog is faster than that.  Moreover, this deck can only really force of will once, and not even reliably.  It has terribly poor cards like Birds of Paridise and other extended playables.  Also, it doesn't really do anything until turn 2/3 and even four and relies on surviving those turns on FOW and Duress.  Poor form if you ask me.

This whole format is in for a shake up post Mirrodin.

Stephen Menendian\n\n

[Bastian]

I think anybody who can come to this forum knows or makes a pretty good idea of the state of the format right now. It would've been much more interesting a view on the impact Mirrodin is going to have.

Nice work though.\n\n

[urza's child]

Quote (Bastian @ Sep. 23 2003,19:16)I think anybody who can come to this forum knows or makes a pretty good idea of the state of the format right now. It would've been much more interesting a view on the impact Mirrodin is going to have.

amen

[Ric_Flair]

I would like to disagree with the above posts, except for the original.  I think it is important to see where we are to know where we are going to go.  

Also I would like Smemmen's comments on the up and coming Madness deck.  I have played it and I can say without qualification--this bitch is real.  The deck can hang with the big boys with little difficulty.

That said, good post, as usual.  Could you run a posting seminar for the Newbies.  They are getting worse instead of better at it.

Good job.

[jpmeyer]

Quote (urza's child @ Sep. 23 2003,19:19)

Quote (Bastian @ Sep. 23 2003,19:16)I think anybody who can come to this forum knows or makes a pretty good idea of the state of the format right now. It would've been much more interesting a view on the impact Mirrodin is going to have.

amen

Gotta wait for the StarCity article for that!

[Ultima]

Very good points Steve.

I also am curious about your thoughts on mirrodin and what it will do to the format.

[Brendan]

One good thing about madness post Mirrodin is Chalice basically doesn't hurt it at all. A chalice for 0 is probably the most effective, to shut down LED and even that isn't all that hot.

That's the beauty of having a threat base with such a diverse cmc.\n\n

[Smmenen]

Quote (Bastian @ Sep. 23 2003,16:16)I think anybody who can come to this forum knows or makes a pretty good idea of the state of the format right now. It would've been much more interesting a view on the impact Mirrodin is going to have.

Nice work though.

I figure most people would have a general idea, but maybe not quite as specific as what I said.  And so many people now have a more concrete notion of what they might have vaguely sensed, based upon my actual and extensive testing of each of these decks.  

Another reason to bring this up was to generate some discussion.  That said, it isn't surprising anyone to say that Long.dec dies a horrible, horrible death to Chalice of the Void.  There is really no way for it to survive, as it is simply too easy for any budget deck to mulligan into one and play it for zero.  Anyone playing that deck would have to have balls of steel.  

Steve

[Bastian]

I am much more curious to see the changes that Mirrodin will bring. We all know the hyped cards, but what about those hidden pearls that we'll find along?

I'm very curious to see what will happen to the present decks, what possible new ones will arise and what will become what after all this happens, although I must add, once again, that if Chalice makes workshop decks too dominant that it should be restricted.

[Hyperion]

Chalice of the Void is a card that Type I really needed. Keeping the truly degenerate combo decks at bay has become more and more difficult since the Scourge set was released, and now with Chalice, any deck can do so if it wants to. I think it will ultimately result in a healthier format, even if it gives artifact prison decks a boost. I do not think this card is in danger of restriction, nor that it should be. Coupled with the extremely potent combo hoser in Chalice are other solid cards that I think will strengthen a number of decks that aren't in the spotlight right now. Since many of them are artifacts, their impact will be more significant.

Overall, I predict that Mirrodin will level the Type I playing field dramatically, and I for one am  looking forward to it.\n\n

[Smmenen]

I got totally blasted for not being totally upfront about Tog in my SCG article, so I'm not going to go down that road.  That said, I have one things to say about workshop. I hope they wouldn't restrict a card where there is really only Oct 20th until the last week in Nov for them to decide whether it needs to be restricted or not.  All told, that's really less than a month to let the metagame flesh out.  

Let's try and keep the focus on the topic please.

Steve\n\n

[Eastman]

Quote That said, it isn't surprising anyone to say that Long.dec dies a horrible, horrible death to Chalice of the Void.  

Glad you came around Steve .

[Triple_S]

The problem with a possible restriction of Workshop post-Mirrodin is there will not be enough time to measure the impact of the new set on the metagame.  To measure the true impact of the set, I feel several months worth of results need to be compiled first before restrictions are doled out.  Does this always happen?  No, see Mind's Desire, Gush, Earthcraft, Entomb for examples of that.

On top, I feel Stephen does a really concise rundown of the field and I agree with most of his views on Vengeur Masque.  I do feel that VM/Coal's worst match is Long.dec...VM might win 5-10% of games pre-SB at best.  Post-SB it might get better but I haven't tested that thoroughly.  VM doesn't really have a horrible matchup against the other decks though.  I would say most are 45-50% at worst against the Tier 1 decks.

[Smmenen]

One caveat that I think Gush did have time to prove itself over five months of stupidity.  Earthcraft and entomb were restricted for 1.5.  And desire becuase it was broke.  

But which falls into my point that Oct. 20th to Nov. 31 (earlier since they have to meet before that) is not sufficient time to decide to restrict a card given that there is going ot be massive changes in a format already slow to adjust.

In my Rector article I said there should be distortion or domination in a diverse period for at least one month - but I meant in a relatively settled metagame.  

Steve

[dicemanX]

It would seem to me that long.dec autoscoops to Null Rod as much as it will autoscoop to Chalice when it becomes legal. Of course, at 2cc, its much tougher for budget builds to resolve Null Rod quickly enough. On the other hand, it's much easier to resolve the Rod first turn for fully powered builds like Dragon or even better - wMUD. I'd feel confident in smashing long.dec with Dragon if I decided to run 4 Null Rods in the SB instead of the Mind Twist and Rushing Rivers that are in there now.

Have you done any testing between Dragon and wMUD by the way Steve? Rich and I haven't gotten around to it yet, but I hope to get it done before a major local tournament in Montreal this October. However, just theoretically speaking, it looks like Dragon should get a slight pull, especially post SB. If wMUD locks up the game with quick Spheres and company, so be it. Few decks can compete against certain wMUD draws anyways. Otherwise, its just a race to see if Dragon can animate up a Verdant or Dragon for the win in time. At least Dragon isn't as severely crippled if a Sphere resolves compared to long.dec...sigh, this poor deck just doesn't get enough respect, even if it looks like a collection of "jank" .

Post Mirrodin, I think that Dragon will make some gains, because it can run Chalice to destroy long.dec, while also giving us a way to deal with annoying Plows and Coffin Purges all in one go by setting Chalice to 1. This will be huge. Chalice is not as effective vs Dragon, since setting it for two (only wMUD can do that fast enough, btw, and only if Workshop doesn't get the axe) doesn't hose all of the animate spells, while actually hindering the casting of Spheres and Winter Orb.\n\n

[Ultima]

If dragon gains too much from the chalice, then people will just end up SBing alternate graveyard hate with varying costs in addition to purge such as tormod's crypt, although i think that is already happening in a few circles right now.

Chalice will give dragon much better percents for the first game however if it is MD.

[dicemanX]

Tormod's Crypt is generally less of a problem than Purge. Dragon already runs 4x Keg in the SB to deal with Crypts and a host of other threats (including Chalices and Spheres). Plus, Crypt trades 1 for 1 with an Animate when a Verdant is in the grave; a Purge can nail two Animates. Verdants are usually sided in in a lot of match-ups - it's almost a wonder why we don't run them main . Oh, and lets not forget that if people switch to Crypts, then Chalice can also be set to 0 as a pre-emptive measure, although I would doubt that this would happen very frequently.

My one worry is that Intuition might get the axe along with Workshops in a couple of months, although I personally believe that neither card will be restricted.

[TracerBullet]

Quote Long's Burning Desire, specifically, the build I developed in the EVF thread, is the best deck in type one right now.  There is no doubt about it, properly played, this deck should win every tournament.

Steve, I don't care HOW confident you are with a deck.  You simply cannot truely make these claims, as it asserts that YOU and THOSE YOU BELIEVE TO PLAY WELL are the best players in T1.  The fact is that Burning Desire DOESN'T WIN EVERY T1 TOURNEMENT.  So, does that mean that every person who lost with it is automatically a sub-par player, or at least a sub-par Burning Desire player?  Better yet, does this mean that you will win EVERY tournement you enter with Long, or that you will ALWAYS be higher than every other player than a Long player?

It's bullshit Steve.  It's a blatant overstatement.

[MolotDET]

Quote (TracerBullet @ Sep. 24 2003,00:45)

Quote Long's Burning Desire, specifically, the build I developed in the EVF thread, is the best deck in type one right now.  There is no doubt about it, properly played, this deck should win every tournament.

Steve, I don't care HOW confident you are with a deck.  You simply cannot truely make these claims, as it asserts that YOU and THOSE YOU BELIEVE TO PLAY WELL are the best players in T1.  The fact is that Burning Desire DOESN'T WIN EVERY T1 TOURNEMENT.  So, does that mean that every person who lost with it is automatically a sub-par player, or at least a sub-par Burning Desire player?  Better yet, does this mean that you will win EVERY tournement you enter with Long, or that you will ALWAYS be higher than every other player than a Long player?

It's bullshit Steve.  It's a blatant overstatement.

I thought you people would get used to Stevey getting too hyped about his current deck of choice (See RectorTrix, $taks, WelderMud).  But, the truth is that Long.dec is very good even if it is hard to play.  Which means that even a great magic player won't be the best Long.dec player.


     But that aside, I was sort of suprised that Steve didn't mention Goblinsligh.  It puts up a three turn clock 60+% of the time which is usually fast enough to out-race Dragon and often Hulk.

     Of course we all know that Wmud will be the deck to beat after Mirrodin, though there will be several suprising jumps in power amoung other decks.

     The biggest problem I have with this thread is that it seems once again to be an attempt at misinformation.  We all already know what the top decks are.  But these were the top decks three or four months ago.  Why should people be preparing themselves for Long.dec when in four short weeks, it will be unplayable.  Why should people be preparing themselves for pre-Mirrodin Wmud when post-Mirrodin Wmud will be the deck to beat.  People already know the hulk is a powerhouse and they already know how to hate it.  The only thing useful that most people might find here is Dragon (which anyone that does there own testing would know about already).  If you really wanted to post something useful for the community, you would post something about your findings from your recent testing.

     in short: This thread is a bust!

     You are pointing people to the past, so they are not ready for the future.

[MoreFling]

I think your view of long.dec is a bit overrated Steve. I think it is on par with a combo-deck like our TPS, or Dragon for that matter. If you draw a good 7, you will win. If your opponent draws a better 7, you will lose. That's actually inherent to just about any combo deck. I don't think Long.dec has better chances at drawing a better 7. It might however, have a bit more room for mulling to 6 or even 5, but still, that's only marginal.
To add some practical results to my statements: There were 6 tendrils players in Castricum in September. 3 Long.dec, 3 TPS. Long took 1, 7 and 14 (see a pattern? It's not stable!). TPS took 2, 3 and 5 (see a pattern? It's more stable!).
In total points gained, that means Long.dec has 18 + 12 + 9 (=39), and TPS has 15 + 13 + 12 (=40). So they don't walk away from each other that much.

I can see your counterargument that Long.dec actually won the whole shebang, but a little more luck on the TPS side, and we would've won it, quite simply.

I suppose the rest of your analysis is something I already knew in July, and was proven early August.

[Siral]

I dont think that only 3 decks exist now.

Rector Trix is always a good deck and able to win a tournament. Lock and Stock it's better of WelderMUD IMHO because of the meditate.

And i wanna say one thing on Tendril Combo Deck (Long.dec and TPS)

It's true that they are probably the best combo deck since insane Academy of the Urza's Saga, but this deck is owned by a single card called Null Rod. Even a deck without any kind of protection for the null rod still wins if the Rod comes into play. Yes, burning wish can give the solution (Primal Justice or Hull's Breach) but with a limited amount of mana to spend it's possible that the Tendril Player vs a 1st or 2nd turn null rod spend his 2nd turn to wish for the solution and then the opponent can play duress, therapy, make a draw seven, mind twist, counter the solution if no xantid or defense grid is in play.

This is result of a lot of testing because before i try the null rod in my side i've a lot of problems vs the tendril, but after i've found this solution my deck wins about 70% post-side games vs tendril (i use usually GAT listed on extreme vintage forum)

[MoreFling]

Siral: TPS has duress and FoW, and still the ability to outcombo you before you get to the required amount of mana. Also, since I can fuel Tendrils with rituals and just PLAYING the moxen, I can still outcombo you through a Null Rod. I'm not happy to see Null Rod, but that doesnt mean it spells game.
The lack of FoW in Long is made up by a (possibly) superior speed, and the flexibility that Primitive Justice offers.
So I cannot think otherwise but that your testing is a little flawed on this point.

[Thug]

Quote This is result of a lot of testing because before i try the null rod in my side i've a lot of problems vs the tendril, but after i've found this solution my deck wins about 70% post-side games vs tendril (i use usually GAT listed on extreme vintage forum)

If your running Duresses, Drain, FoW and Rods you do have a good change against Long, but 70% is just totally untrue. As MoreFling said both decks run Duresses and TPS also has FoW where long can bring in Seal of Cleansings to counteract Null Rods.

Quote To add some practical results to my statements: There were 6 tendrils players in Castricum in September. 3 Long.dec, 3 TPS. Long took 1, 7 and 14 (see a pattern? It's not stable!). TPS took 2, 3 and 5 (see a pattern? It's more stable!).
In total points gained, that means Long.dec has 18 + 12 + 9 (=39), and TPS has 15 + 13 + 12 (=40). So they don't walk away from each other that much.

I think this shows another aspect, you need to know the deck inside out to play it good (Long), for one of the Long players it was the first time he played it, and he conceded last round against sligh for a prize split. And the other player was missing Black Lotus and Mox Jet. You could say that the only totally prepared long player took the first place home (me!   ).

Quote On the other hand, it's much easier to resolve the Rod first turn for fully powered builds like Dragon or even better - wMUD

[sarcasm]Running Null Rod in Welder-MUD seems like a very very good idea to me [\sarcasm]

Quote That said, it isn't surprising anyone to say that Long.dec dies a horrible, horrible death to Chalice of the Void.

In my opinion Chalice is just bringer back Long.dec back to earth, to the same level as the other top decks.

Quote Those are what I consider the top 4 decks in the pre-mirrodin environment.  The top three are the only real tier one.  Beyond that you have Neo-Academy, Rector decks, and Fish, as well as well designed Keeper.  

One decks is missing bigtime: Stacker. From mirrodin it gets newer and better tools to work with. It naturally has a good game against combo and chalice just makes that better. It also can handle Tog well and shouldn't die to random.dec

Koen

[MoreFling]

Quote (Thug @ Sep. 24 2003,13:04)I think this shows another aspect, you need to know the deck inside out to play it good (Long), for one of the Long players it was the first time he played it, and he conceded last round against sligh for a prize split. And the other player was missing Black Lotus and Mox Jet. You could say that the only totally prepared long player took the first place home (me!   ).

Maybe your better ability with the deck pulled through in the end, but still, my main points stand in my opinion. Let's not disregard those other guys just because they havent' been playing it as long. I didn't see them make any real bad plays.

[Toad]

Quote (Siral @ Sep. 24 2003,11:30)Lock and Stock it's better of WelderMUD IMHO because of the meditate.

The deck you are referring to as "Lock Stock" is known as Stax, or $T4KS, as we introduced it in our SCG article with Smmenen. Lock Stock was the name of a deck designed by Bebe, with Juggernauts and a Smokestack / Wire lock.

The comparaison between Stax and Welder MUD is not all about Meditates. There are some others facts that have to be taken into account :

* Welder MUD runs 6-8 Mountains, which is good in a field full of Wastelands and non basic hate.

*  Welder MUD runs all 5 strip effects. These are golden against Hulk Smash, combo in all its forms, and Keeper. They act as a fourth lock component along with Spheres, Wires and Smokestacks.

* You don't rely on 3cc non artifact spells as your draw engine. Meditates and draw7 are cool, but 3cc colored mana is really expensive, especially against decks packing Wasteland. Sometimes, you'll have some Workshops on the board and draw spells in hand, with no mana to cast them. Welder MUD drops a Grafted Skullcap easily and as a continuous flow of cards drawn each turn.

* Powder Keg is incredibly strong against budget Aggro. The ideal metagame where you only face Long.dec, Keeper and Hulk Smash is an utopy. Real life metagames are full of Goblins and RG. You'll love your Kegs here.

* Metalworker allows a turn 2 hard lock really easily. Like "Oops, I dumped my hand". He's insane with multiple Grafted Skullcaps or Memory Jar.

Matthieu

[MoreFling]

Quote  Powder Keg is incredibly strong against budget Aggro. The ideal metagame where you only face Long.dec, Keeper and Hulk Smash is an utopy. Real life metagames are full of Goblins and RG. You'll love your Kegs here.

-side note: Time for you to drive up to Eindhoven T1.  

[ZoneSeek]

While Long should be winning the tournaments, Fish actually is. My two cents aside, Type 1 is going to be a rocky adventure in a short time - brace yourselves!

I think we really do need to wait a month at LEAST before making any bids for pre-emptive restriction. Desire scared the hell out of us and was utterly broken to bits in a short period of time; we've failed to do this to any significant degree with Mirrodin - so let's let it settle in.

[dicemanX]

Quote [sarcasm]Running Null Rod in Welder-MUD seems like a very very good idea to me [\sarcasm]

Sorry thug, but that's some seriously narrow thinking there.

If wMUD has some serious trouble vs long.dec you can think about SBing Null Rods. You can't hope to get lucky with Sphere all the time. Yeah, the Rods nail your Moxes and Metalworkers (hence your attempt at a "witty" reply), but you have many more mana sources including Workshops and Cities. Long.dec in the meantime has 11 lands vs your 5 strip effects and 4 Spheres (which are like a strip effect, but even better). If you don't draw your disruption apart from Null Rod, you still have Welders to "protect" the Rods.

Post Mirrodin Chalice negates this idea, but until then, you have nothing on long.dec except one card - Sphere.

Quote The lack of FoW in Long is made up by a (possibly) superior speed, and the flexibility that Primitive Justice offers.
So I cannot think otherwise but that your testing is a little flawed on this point.

I don't think his testing is automatically flawed just because long.dec has solutions. You're going to have a very difficult time resolving a Justice or Seal. You need:

2 lands (out of 11, AND they need to survive past a Strip effect/Sphere)

Even if you manage two mana and spend a turn Wishing/tutoring for a solution, then try casting it during your main phase next turn, you need to get past:

a) Countermagic/Duress (vs Hulk, for instance)
b) Getting comboed out, Duressed or FoWed (vs Dragon)
c) wMUD's disruption (Strips and Spheres) AND Welders, which will get the Null Rod right back after you nuke it. You'll get one shot out of your artifact mana before the Rod comes back. Even in such a rare scenario, good luck in going off.

TPS is a tad less affected by Rod, but again, the opponent isn't going to sit idly by as you find a way to either remove the Rod or try to barely go off with Rituals and stuff.

Quote But that aside, I was sort of suprised that Steve didn't mention Goblinsligh.  It puts up a three turn clock 60+% of the time which is usually fast enough to out-race Dragon and often Hulk.

3rd turn 60+% of the time?? Are you stacking your deck?\n\n

[Thug]

Quote Sorry thug, but that's some seriously narrow thinking there.

If wMUD has some serious trouble vs long.dec you can think about SBing Null Rods. You can't hope to get lucky with Sphere all the time. Yeah, the Rods nail your Moxes and Metalworkers (hence your attempt at a "witty" reply), but you have many more mana sources including Workshops and Cities. Long.dec in the meantime has 11 lands vs your 5 strip effects and 4 Spheres (which are like a strip effect, but even better). If you don't draw your disruption apart from Null Rod, you still have Welders to "protect" the Rods.

Post Mirrodin Chalice negates this idea, but until then, you have nothing on long.dec except one card - Sphere.

Yeah right now wMUD or MUD doesn't have much on Long.dec, I totally agree, but running a card that shuts down a third of your deck and only is good is a single matchup just can't be justified. If you're going that far, you're better of running a different deck... (for instance stacker, Null Rod doesn't hurt it as much and it still gets to run the same disruption as MUD plus Pillars.)

Quote 2 lands (out of 11, AND they need to survive past a Strip effect/Sphere)

Even if you manage two mana and spend a turn Wishing/tutoring for a solution, then try casting it during your main phase next turn, you need to get past:

a) Countermagic/Duress (vs Hulk, for instance)
b) Getting comboed out, Duressed or FoWed (vs Dragon)
c) wMUD's disruption (Strips and Spheres) AND Welders, which will get the Null Rod right back after you nuke it. You'll get one shot out of your artifact mana before the Rod comes back. Even in such a rare scenario, good luck in going off.

a) So even Hulk is running Null Rods already? funny, but don't forget about Duress, Pyroblast and Swarm, you're effectively running as much counters/disruption/protection as hulk does... and they all are 1cc...

c) This is were Chain of Vapor really shines. Return it to their hand eot and go nuts next turn, if a Mud player even ever considers sb'ing Null Rods.

And you can drop Seal before Sphere or Rod even hits the table...

Koen\n\n

[pernicious dude]

Quote While Long should be winning the tournaments, Fish actually is.

Poughkeepsie last week we watched Long shit all over its shoes all day.
Two of the top eight were Fish, and Fish took it home.
Whether Fish has a diverse enough CMC to survive Chalice, I dunno.