Revisiting UB Control

[FeverDog]

A few months ago, i posted a UB control deck on the forum with mixed responses. As happens with many of my deck ideas, i eventually gave up trying to fine-tune it and went back to playing "standard" T1 decks. However, a recent PM by a certain member made me revisit the idea of the deck and see what some of the new cards could provide in terms of improvements. First, let me list my most current version.

        1 Zuran Orb
        2 Powder Keg

        1 Mind Twist
        1 Demonic Tutor
        1 Yawgmoth's Will
        2 Chainer's Edict
        1 The Abyss

        1 Ancestral Recall
        1 Time Walk
        1 Fact or Fiction
        1 Stroke of Genius
        1 Mystical Tutor
        1 Merchant Scroll
        2 Brainstorm
        2 Cunning Wish
        2 Misdirection
        4 Force of Will
        4 Mana Drain
        3 Morphling

        1 Sol Ring
        1 Black Lotus
        1 Mox Sapphire
        1 Mox Ruby
        1 Mox Pearl
        1 Mox Jet
        1 Strip Mine
        3 Wasteland
        1 Undiscovered Paradise
        4 Polluted Delta
        4 Underground Sea
        1 Swamp
        8 Island

SB:  1 Recoil
SB:  1 Ebony Charm
SB:  1 Vampiric Tutor
SB:  1 Diabolic Edict
SB:  1 Skeletal Scrying
SB:  1 Misdirection
SB:  1 Capsize
SB:  1 Psionic Blast
SB:  1 Blue Elemental Blast
SB:  1 Powder Keg
SB:  1 Ensnaring Bridge
SB:  4 Back to Basics

First, as many of you will notice, this is basically UB Keeper. I am very aware of this fact and i dont need to be reminded of it, thx.

Now, heres what the main improvement has been: fetch lands. Of course, almost all T1 decks are now incorporating them, they help smooth out your mana and make 2 color decks such as mine much more resistant to non-basic hate. But the reason they are so good in this deck is Back to Basics, the original version had them in the side, and they were well worth it, but with Polluted Delta in place of Rivers it makes B2B much better. The deck is now almost totally immune to B2B, with only Seas really being affected, this lets me side them in much more freely.

Of course, i have also incorporated Cunning Wish in the deck, the card has proven itself very useful in Keeper and its almost as good here. Unlike Ur or Ug, there are enough blue and black cards to make a Wish sb viable. The main thing you will notice is both Capsize and Recoil in the side, i have to say although they are very similar, each has situations where it is more useful and i am reluctant to cut either at this time. If you are Wishing early and you know you cant pay the buyback on Capsize, then Recoil is obviously better, but in the late game its not so clear-cut.

Although my testing so far has been limited, here is how the deck fares against some of the more popular decks:

Sligh-
Here, the decks lowered vulnerability to Strips and especially PoP really help, as well as the pair of maindeck Kegs which really hurt Sligh. You may miss Balance in this matchup, but the greater consistency of the deck along with the Kegs should help that.

Mask-
I have tested against Mask the most so i think i have a decent handle on it. Here, the mana base really doesnt matter as Mask doesnt run any non-basic hate. What does help are the Kegs(again) and the pair of Edicts, not to mention the sideboarded Ensnaring Bridge. Unfortunetly, you cant Wish for a Pulse like Keeper, so you have to rely on Capsize, Kegs and Bridge to slow them down and contain them. Bridge is really the key here as their only answer is Recoil, if you can protect it the game is yours.

TNT-
Most TNT decks pack Blood Moon in the sb, which is one of their main weapons against control, obviously this doesnt work vs you. In fact, its you that can actually board B2B against them, depending on the build this can seriously hurt them. I admit i havent gotten more than a few games in vs TNT, but i think the key is keeping Survival off the table and blasting their Welders. Bridge is only effective if you dont have any other artifacts in the grave so be very careful.

Keeper-
This plays out much like the mirror for them, coming down to player skill and who has better draws. Post sb, you have B2B for them but they have REBs to answer, its a very interesting matchup. Resolving and protecting B2B is your main key to victory here, if you are able to accomplish that you are in an excellent position. I usually keep a Keg or two post-sb to kill their Moxen, although it hurts both players, they will have to rely on them much more than you if B2B should resolve.

As always, i welcome all contructive critisism and suggestions. Please keep the flames to a minimum. Thank you.

[Os-Vegeta]

Quote However, a recent PM by a certain member made me revisit the idea of the deck and see what some of the new cards could provide in terms of improvements. First, let me list my most current version.

It was me!    Amazing what a little PM can cause when you're researching various decks.  

Quote   2 Misdirection
       4 Force of Will
       4 Mana Drain

I see you have the same amount of counters as Keeper here, but did you test out going the route similar to URPhid by running 4 Mana Leak in addition? Then again, what would you cut?  Would I be correct in saying that if you ran those Mana Leak you would end up losing out on card advantage and/or removal?

I'd like to see how this deck fares vs. Parfait, Sui, and URPhid.

[specialk]

here's my decklist from montreal It worked good and I also took it to first place in toronto. In montreal I defeated grow, sui, Uw control, fires(I know it isn't teir 1 but me with no abyss it was hard) and got stomped down by keeper and TNT(very close after boarding). In Toronto I faced Ghetto Keeper(he was getting back in after being out of magic for a few years and had few duals and no power) cherry parfait again close but it is all about recoil and having basic lands) and Ur control fully powered.

5th place - Arend R Kraehling
Deck Name: U B Engine
Deck Designer: Arend Kraehling

1 Ancestral Recall
1 Braingeyser
2 Counterspell
1 Cunning Wish
1 Fact or Fiction
4 Force of Will
4 Mana Drain
1 Merchant Scroll
3 Misdirection
2 Morphling
1 Mystical Tutor
2 Ophidian
1 Stroke of Genius
1 Time Walk
1 Chainers Edict
1 Demonic Tutor
2 Diabolic Edict
1 Mind Twist
1 Vampiric Tutor
1 Yawgmoths Will
3 Shadowmage Infiltrator
1 Black Lotus
1 Mox Emerald
1 Mox Jet
1 Mox Pearl
1 Mox Ruby
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Sol Ring
3 Island
1 Library of Alexandria
4 Polluted Delta
1 Strip Mine
1 Swamp
1 Tolarian Academy
1 Underground River
4 Underground Sea
2 Wasteland

Total: 60 cards

2 Blue Elemental Blast
1 Chainers Edict
1 Diabolic Edict
1 Ebony Charm
1 Haunting Echoes
1 Skeletal Scrying
2 Recoil
2 Masticore
2 Powder Keg
2 Scrying Glass

EDIT:Fixed his formatting. -Z

[FeverDog]

@Vegeta
Yes, it was indeed your PM which promted me to take another look at the deck. As for Mana Leaks, i never even considered them, this deck is not BBS with 18-20 counters, its more like Keeper. I have enough trouble finding room for all the cards in the deck, i cant imagine trying to fit in more counters, not to mention they really arent needed.

@SpecialK
Your deck is UB Phid, which is a very different deck even though it shares a lot of cards with mine. Also, no offense, but could you list your decklist differently next time? Its really a pain to read in the format it is right now.\n\n

[MolotDET]

Feverdog,

     I haven't had time to really run the numbers on this one yet but I have a question.

Why no Duress?

I would think that it is one of Blacks best spells.  Why didn't it make the cut?

[BillTheDuck]

Yes, I dont see how you can live without duress here. It either has to be the REB replacement in the sb or you should run it where Urphid runs mana leaks. You'll lose to any type of control, esspecially with red.

I would also find room for a 3rd keg main. You can compare your deck to OSE, and it seems like your deck is weaker vs aggro given your lack of factories.

I would also find room for a smother in the sb.

[FeverDog]

Quote Yes, I dont see how you can live without duress here.

I dont understand this statement at all, why is Duress a necessity? I dont see Keeper or OSE running Duress, why should i?

Quote You'll lose to any type of control, esspecially with red.

Blatantly false. I understand you have never played the deck, but to assume i lose to any type of control simply because i lack Duress is ridiculous.


Yes folks, Duress is an excellent card, that doesnt mean that every deck with black has to run them. I really dont see why i would need them in addition to my 10 counters, and i cant imagine what i would cut for them. People seem to think i have all these free slots in my deck when in fact its the opposite. Sure, if i had 2-3 slots to fill i could use Duress, but im not going to cut Edicts, Kegs or any other card for them. Yes, Keeper will board REBs against me, and they are gonna need every single one to get rid of my B2B. I would rather have more must-counter spells than just more counters.

The only spot in the deck which is really in question is the Zuran Orb, which may end up moving to the sb in favor of a Recoil or Capsize. Mostly because i have bigger worries than Sligh at the moment, but also because i really dont have problems with Sligh overall.

[Os-Vegeta]

@ FeverDog - I think I made a mistake asking about the 4 Mana Leak, as I should have seen that this deck is not a part of the Forbiddian Archetype Family.

I do have a few more questions for you:
1) Did taking Library of Alexandria  out of the deck hurt it at all, regarding card advantage?  The extra card drawn could really help at times, but I can see exactly why it was removed - Back to Basics would make it useless in the Keeper, Zoo, and TnT matchups.

2) Regarding Vampiric Tutor and Skeletal Scrying in the SB, do they work that well for you? There's been much talk of giving Vampiric Tutor the boot from Keeper builds, and since this deck works similar to the way Keeper does, I'm interested to see how much of an asset this card is.  Now, I've never been a big fan of Skeletal Scrying, but I'm curious as to how well it performs for you.  How often do you wish for both of these cards?  

3) Though I love the idea of Ensnaring Bridge as a sideboard item against Mask and TnT, I'm wondering how often it's effective vs. TnT.  In order to halt the Su-chi's along with the Juggernauts, you would have to have three cards in your hand on TnT's turn.  Do you find this difficult?

Also - I like the Zuran Orb MD; I wouldn't cut it.  In Keeper, it seems to work just as well as Circle of Protection: Red. Why not keep it in, as you may see a Cunning Wish before you see a Capsize or Recoil?  Would it not be better to take full advantage of Cuning Wish by keeping Recoil and Capsize in the SB?  


Now, for the Duress issue:  

I'm going to have to side with FeverDog on this, as:
1) I don't see what can be cut for Duress besides the third Morphling and a Misdirection. (I went and looked at what differences there were between Keeper and UB Control, and I found that there was room left for the extra Morphling and Misdirection added.)   Both would rather stay in the deck.
2) The deck has denial and card drawing to gain its advantages.  Adding Duress could be helpful, but it may not be necessary.  Like FeverDog said, Keeper and OSE don't run Duress, so why should this build?
3) Let's look at what Duress can provide, saying 2 would be run MD (that's about all that can be squeezed in from what I can see):  
     vs. Aggro: Will remove burn, disruption from Sui, and Survival from TnT.  
      vs. Control: Removes opposing counterspells, REB, and opposing removal (Diabolic/Chainer's Edict).  You're not going to get hosed by URPhidian's Blood Moon, but you can still remove that.
      vs. Combo Removes combo components, anything to protect the combo when it goes off.

Now what's actually changing:
     vs. Aggro: Not a whole lot, as you have Misdirection for burn and Sui's Hymns and Sinkholes.  You can still counter Survival to keep it from coming on the field.  
      vs. Control: The benefits of removing a counter from your opponent's hand is nice.  Remember, however, that you have counters and must-counter spells in your deck to combat and bait the Control player's counters.  
      vs. Combo: Well, Academy is tougher to disrupt than most other Combo, and most Control handles Combo pretty well anyway because it has removal and counters... So I'd keep the counters in over Duress.

[FeverDog]

@Vegeta

1) Library is especially useful in the control mirror, which is exactly where i want B2B. I have considered running it anyway and then either a) siding it out  b) just dealing with an extra dead land. For now, its not in the deck, but that may change if i get the time to test it and see how often it really hinders me post-sb.

2) Skeletal Scrying is golden, its always great to Wish for it late against control. My Wishable sb is lacking in cards that are good vs control so Scrying is one of my primary targets in that matchup. Vampiric is there simply as a safety measure, so far i have only Wished for it once, but it did win me the game. Its not a must-have by any means, but its nice if you can fit it in.

3) As i stated in the original post, Bridge can be tough to maintain vs TNT for several reasons. Obviously you have to be able to keep a 3 card hand the whole game, but you also have to be extrememly careful not to get any other artifacts into your grave or else you get fukked by Welder. The card is essentially there for Mask but i think its still worth bringing in against Tubbies.

As for the Duress thing, you pretty much nailed it on the head. Its not that its bad, its just i dont see it being better than any of the cards i would cut for it. The Zorb slot is still under consideration, i havent had a chance to test without it vs Sligh, that should help in determining its fate.

[Mith]

I was messing around with the U/B concept a bit back. I found that I loved running Duress maindeck...and one Masticore too (with more in the board). I did originally want to try Finkle out...but I need my Abyss. Anyways, here's what I played for a bit...I was overall pretty pleased with it, but I'll take Keeper over UB anyday

4 Force of Will
4 Mana Drain
1 Misdirect
2 Cunning Wish
1 Merchant Scroll
1 Mystical Tutor
1 Stroke
1 Brain Geyser
1 Ancestral
1 Time Walk
1 Fact or Fic
1 Power Artifact
2 Morphling
1 Masticore (Always managed to tutor for it when needed)
1 Demonic Tutor
1 Mind Twist
1 Chainer's
1 Vamp Tutor (Gotta get that combo)
1 Yawg's Will
1 Abyss
4 Duress (MVP)
4 Polluted Delta
4 Underground Sea
2 Underground River
4 Island
2 Wasteland
1 Strip
1 Dustbowl
1 Sol Ring
1 Grim Monolith
1 Library
1 Lotus
1 Mox Jet
1 Mox Sapphire
4 Mishra's Factory (I tried em, and I liked em)

Board:
1 Capsize
1 Diabolic Edict
1 Skeletal Scrying
1 Ebony Charm
1 Misdirect
3 Masticore
3 Nev's Disk (used to be kegs...but I needed something big)
4 Negator (MVP of the sidboard)

[the phoenix]

Nice to see you back in action Brian  Thank god for apprentice, eh?  Solid deck, but I do have one question. One can make a ton of different control decks that could all be fairly successful; as long as you have the blue core cards and powerful cards from supporting colour(s) then the deck can't be too bad. My question is, why would I want to play your deck over OSE, Urphiddian, keeper, OSC, U/w control, mono-U control...etc?

Actually, I have a second question: why no Library?? I mean I understand your reasoning, but here's how I see it. If you resolve B2B early on then you're in good shape already, and if B2B does get destroyed then LoA becomes active again to help you recover. If you cast B2B mid/late game then you'll have already gotten plenty of card advantage from LoA before it hits play, certainly enough to justify it's inclusion in the deck. Not to mention all the games where you *don't* board in B2B...and also I hear that game 1's are pretty frequent.

[FeverDog]

Hey Andy, nice of you to drop by.

I had been really considering Library for a few days, and your argument really drove the point home for me, its in the deck as of today. In retrospect, i dont think you can cut a card that broken just because it doesnt work with one key sb card.

Now, as for reasons to play this over other blue-based control, i will go one by one:

Keeper-
I think i already went into this with my original post. This deck gives you most of Keeper's brokeness but with a really solid mana base. You would play this over Keeper if your metagame is packed with non-basic hate.

OSE-
As far as i know, nobody plays OSE anymore but i will list it anyway. I think my deck is more of a traditional control deck, and thats fine, OSE made its mark because it was different. My deck really isnt very aggressive in nature, especially compared to OSE. Again, i mention the more stable mana base and reduced vulnerability to non-basic hosers.

OSC-
Im sorry, i dont know what this deck is at all. If someone can tell me then i will reply.

UW Control-
Well, black is just a better compliment to blue in my opinion. White gives you great utility but nothing broken outside of Balance.

MonoU/Ur Ophidian-
I dont think you can really lump Phid decks in with mine. The play style is very different, you have no permanent answer to creatures and you have to worry about countering removal.


I had a conversation with Zherbus a few days ago on mIRC, we were discussing Oath. I asked him why people would play Oath over Keeper and he gave me these 3 reasons(losely quoted)
1- Oath is cheaper to build
2- Oath is easier to play
3- Oath is more resistant to non-basic hate

I told him i only agreed with #3 because i dont think 1&2 are valid. Of course if you cant afford to build Keeper or you arent skilled enough to play it, then you can play Oath all you want, but when we discuss top decks for T1 i think we have to put everyone on the same level. Right now when most people on this site discuss Oath builds, im fairly sure they arent doing so because they suck and they dont own all the cards, in fact theres a really good Oath thread right above this one.

So if, according to my beliefs, the only "real" reason to play Oath over Keeper is its mana, then maybe Keeper players who are getting hated to death can give my deck a try. Im not claiming its better than Keeper(not at all), just thats its a resiliant alternative that gives you many of the same tools.

I hope i have articulated my opinions well, i am quite tired right now and am way too tired to go over this post(10 hrs of Splinter Cell will do that to ya). Thank you for reading, keep the comments coming.


NOTE TO THE SUPER-ADMINISTRATOR: Im sorry for not asking if i could quote you, but i really didnt think you would mind. Feel free to correct me if im wrong.

[Zherbus]

No problem, but what I meant by easier to play is this:

An Example: Its alot easier to deal with TnT with an Oath on the board than it is with Keeper. Keeper just has to scramble more to pull itself out of that position, where as an Oath player has to sit back and fog, and beat with Morphling.

Its alot easier to deal to just blanket aggro, since so many Keeper players seem to be losing to it, lately. Maybe a year ago it was easy to pilot Keeper in a scripted game of 'Yawn, play Abyss early, Mana Drain something, play Morphling and then win.'

Since you are blanketing aggro, you also by virtue of being a blue based control deck blanket combo for the most part. As a nifty side effect you also have a few bonus's against BBS and URPhid, which both rely on Ophidian (a creature) to provide them with a steady flow of card drawing and non-basic hate to overcome a control matchup.

Simply put, many people who play Keeper are just not cut out for it or need to revise their views on playing it. With Oath, its easy to understand that all you need to do is counter a few key cards and ride Oath to a victory.

You would want to play Oath over Keeper if you cant afford Keeper, of course. Of course, playing against rounds of non-basic hate, round after round WILL get you eventually. But other than those 2 reasons, not being able to deal with occasional non-basic hate or having the ability to deal with aggro properly is just a flaw on the players end of things in my point of view.

If an unsuccessful Keeper player can set his ego aside for a minute to accept that how he is approaching these matchups is failing him, he will see that Oath will fit into both his play ability and his metagame just fine.

So yeah, thats the 3 reasons to run Oath (U/G) over Keeper:

1. You can't afford Keeper
2. You aren't a great Keeper player
3. Keeper is just too unweildy in a hateful environment.

With your deck, Feverdog, you basically took Keepers bone structure and ripped it out. You fleshed it out with muscles more rigid and strong, yet is lacking in flexability and potential. From what I can tell, you made OSE before red was added and without factories and thus probably plays less aggressively.  

Your early analysis misses a few points I'd like to run by you:

1. Sligh - You miss COP: Red too.

2. B2B doesn't completely shut them down since they run basic Forests, and if Survival hits you cant get rid of it. Ebony charm will work on on Squee, but generally TnT runs 2.

3. Keeper -

Quote This plays out much like the mirror for them, coming down to player skill and who has better draws. Post sb, you have B2B for them but they have REBs to answer, its a very interesting matchup. Resolving and protecting B2B is your main key to victory here, if you are able to accomplish that you are in an excellent position. I usually keep a Keg or two post-sb to kill their Moxen, although it hurts both players, they will have to rely on them much more than you if B2B should resolve.

They also have Allay and Aura Fracture in addition.

I think your deck has some very strong game 1 matchups, but post-SB, especially with the greedy Wish, you gro pretty weaker against most other decks.

So it comes down to this for me:

You get a more solid mana-base, and Keeper gets better maindeck solutions and better SB options.

[FeverDog]

A very fair analysis. In the end, the deck's strenghts may not outweigh its weakness' when compared to Keeper, but for now i will keep playing it.

The only thing which is unfortunate about this deck, is that it really has no place to grow, because both Keeper and OSE are like evolutions of this deck. But hey, i never claimed it was better than Keeper.

[Rico Suave]

Quote OSC-
Im sorry, i dont know what this deck is at all. If someone can tell me then i will reply.

If I remember correctly, it stands for "Old-School Control".  It's an off-shoot of OSE, before rOSE came about.  It's essentially an OSE deck splashing white (Balance and D.Blow) and green (Regrowth).  It had City of Brass, Mishra's Factories, and tons of basics (BBS mania at the time).  Quite the interesting mana base.

I haven't seen it in a LONG time.  I think rOSE just kinda overshadowed it.

Back on topic, I agree with LoA being in.  First game, B2B isn't even in the deck.  In the 2nd and 3rd games, LoA has to be dealt with or they'll lose anyway.

No Braingeyser?

[spin13]

The reason OSC isn't recognized as a real archtype by many is simply because only one name (or "nameless", as the case may be ) player ever championed it [the creator, of course].

And it was a 4 color [aggro]-control deck based somewhere between OSE and Keeper with Factories.  The creator has sinced moved on to full blown Keeper like many people.

As for "nobody" playing OSE, that's false.  Fewer people are playing the deck, but there are those of us who haven't switched to Keeper.  Heh, although as soon as I say that I still play it, I should probably add that if I owned 3 more Moxen and Tundra's I would play Keeper as well.

 -Eric

[Dante]

@ Feverdog- correct me if I'm wrong, but the Mask player can still play around the Bridge as follows:

Mask player has a face-down Dreadnought, which is currently 0/1 and keeper player has at least 1 card in hand.  Mask player declares attack and attacks with 0/1 creature.  Anytime before damage is dealt that the Mask player has priority, he flips over the Dreadnought.  You take 12 (barring edict, etc).  Obviously that 'nought can't attack anymore, but other face down creatures can get 1 shot each in.  (barring an Abyss on the table).  In fact, that useless Dreadnought can now soak up Edicts so the second face-down beast can kill you.

So you would need to do more than just protect the Bridge...

Dante

[Milton]

Here are some questions about the B/U archtype that should be addressed by anyone interested in advocating this deck build.

1) Is B/U better than four color Keeper?  In what situations and metagames is this deck design superior to Keeper?

-I would answer this by stating that B/U is better in a hate filled, heavily aggro metagame or in a Keeper filled metagame.  Clearly the basic land provides some interesting options, such as Back to Basics, which can do some damage to powerful deck types, while creating the stablity to withstand early and aggressive non-basic hate.

2) Does this deck need to splash red to survive?

-Yes and no.  I would say no if you are running Duress as an anti-control measure.  I would say yes if you are seeing too much Keeper or Mono Blue (with Phids) and you need Red Blasts for control.  Is it in the best interest of this deck to splash three Volcanic Islands, along with a Mox Ruby, and throw some Red Blasts in the board?  I would say so.  

Also, I see Back to Basics as being a bad anti-Keeper measure simply because it can be Red Blasted.  Keeper will board in three or four Red Blasts against you and they will be able to kill your Back to Basics end of turn.  So, if you run four Back to Basics, there is no reason not to run Mana Short in the board to make this more difficult.  However, I would say that Bloodmoon is a much better Keeper Killer than BtoB, and a splash of Red woudl make Bloodmoon possible.

3) Without White, how to kill enchantments.  Is Recoil enough?  

-I would argue no.  In fact, I would go so far as to include a maindeck Nevs Disk.  In the B/U or even B/U/r archtype I would argue that a Nevs Disk is necessary.  Maybe even two Disks are necessary for board control.  An active Disk against TnT or Mask is awesome.  This, of course, assumes you can keep your disk away from TnT's welders and Masks Duresses.  But, I started running a Disk and I am very happy with it.  Why on earth did we stop playing with Disks?

4) Do we need Factories?  

-Factories kill Phids, Mongooses.  They help stall against Aggro.  They provide a good clock against Control.  They allow us to play Response.  But, they mess with the mana base.  Maybe it's worth it to just run one or two.  But, what about the newly trendy 4 Wastelands, 1 Stripmine?  What about Dustbowl?  The options!  The madness!  In my metagame, I wouldn't run Factories.  But, in a general field I would run 3 wastes, 1 strip and 2 factories.  

5) To Wish or not to Wish?  

-I say no.  I'm pretty much alone on this one, though.  I'd prefer the four tutors (Mystical, Scroll, Vamp and Demonic).  I think Wish is sub-par and I feel that it forces us to have to really bastardize our boards.  I prefer Crypts to Charms.  I like Miners or Bloodmoons or Negators or Duresses.  But, there is something really cool about throwing down a Back to Basics and Wishing for Mana Short!  I just haven't had luck with the wishes.

[Piggy]

Blood Moon is definitely superior to Back to Basics in the keeper post board match-ups.  I play U/R phidian and it generally winds up that if you resolve blood moon then they will be stuck at 1-2 blue if they have the more optimal builds w/fetches.  Ask CrazyCarl, if they don't run any basics as long as you can get one counter somewhere they basically just have to scoop.  Whereas with BtoB they can still drop nonbasics and get one use out of them.  This means you still have to be careful of counters or counter backup on a spell to destroy your BtoB.  Plus as it was previously pointed out, BtoB is targetable by red blast while Blood Moon isn't.  The phids are also great for extra reusable drawing power, and the red will be an mvp in the aggro matchup.  U/B seems to be much better vs control due to it's incresed tutoring and instant speed drawing.  In general though, U/R just seems to be much better for a varied metagame.
P.S.- I also have good records vs control in my limited experience.
Tourney record from the Gamemaster(lotus tourney which i took third in and mox pearl tourney which i won) in games:
Keeper-6-3
U/R Phid-2-0
Gro-2-1
Mono U Trix-2-0
U/W Control-2-1
Five of those keeper games were vs NG:NY regulars only one of which was a loss.
Just my opinion thanks for your time.
Team Goat For Life