The state of the format

[Phantom Tape Worm]

This weekend I spent some time mulling over what to do about gencon, ie. what deck to play, what is viable, what to expect, etc.  I myself lack some of the power cards so that limits my choices on what i can or cannot build.  As it stood, i was considering an attempt at going rogue.  I don't get much time for playtesting up in NoVa where i am, so i went to a playtesting session with several of the Richmond guys to put my rogue deck through the ringer.

When i arrived, late i might add, they had already been playtesting for a while.  I managed to get some testing in, but the most valuable finding that night didn't have anything to do with my goofy deck.  We had a serious discussion about the state of the metagame, the direction it's headed, and more importantly, the effect this will have on the survival of our format as a whole.  It was the content of this discussion that i feel needs to be shared with the manadrain community, and that is the reason for this post.


Do any of you remember combo winter?  I do.  Combo winter was the period in magic's history where the combolicious urza's block was unleashed.  Academy, combo enchantress, jar, yawmoth'swill necro, high tide were all born and then banned (i think in that order) during this time.

Each one of these decks had the capacity to win (or virtually win through insurmountable advantage, in necro's case) on the first few turns of the game.  It was also during this period in magic's history that terms like "going off" or "goldfishing" came to be.  Combo winter was a time of extremely broken things and little interaction with your opponent.  And of course, i should mention it had the additional effect of making more players quit magic than ever before.

Combo winter was extremely bad for magic's popularity.



Now, given the lessons of combo winter, disrupting sPECter has, in a previous thread, stated exactly what should be on the minds of all of us right now:

Quote I ain't crazy about the current environment. All the things people complain about type one are becoming harder to argue against.

1) Building  an unpowered, monocolored or budget deck that is decent is harder to do. It used to be possible to build one no matter what your play style is. Not so much anymore.

2) Too many decks do just cream all over your face while you can only sit there and smile at the camera. Many people think type one is all "land,mox,lotus,channel,fireball". How far away from that is it, really?

This is bad.  And i think most of us realize that he is right.  Look at the top decks right now: hulk, GAT, stax, mask, trix.  Each one of these decks has the capacity to win (or virtually win through insurmountable advantage, in stax's/hulk's case) on the first few turns of the game.

The type 1 environment is beginning to feel like combo winter.  

And while true, right now many decks are viable, unpowered decks are not on an even playing field.  And games against these unpowered decks with one of the aforementioned top decks often resemble something like this:


unpowered player: Mountain, jackal pup, go

powered player: lotus, merchant scroll, ancestral, mox, fetchland, time walk, fetchland, tog


The powered player has already won at this point.  The rest of the game is just a formality.  And any of those top decks is capable of a comparable opening.  The sligh player's best hand may defeat a bad hand from one of those decks if the sligh player is lucky, but the odds are stacked terribly against him.

Do you see what is happening though?  Opening hands are becoming more and more important while interaction with your opponent is becoming far less relavent.  Over the weekend it was summed up nicely with this comment:

"It's getting to the point where the early game is the die roll, the mid game is the opening hand (mulliganing), and the late game is turns 1 through 3."

Imagine a field of type 2 academy, type 2 jar, high tide, and yawgwill necro.  This is essentially what we have right now in type 1, the names may be different, but functionally it's the same.  We have many viable decks that try to win before the opponent's game starts.



If combo winter was bad for type 2...this may be worse for type 1 because...


Unpowered players may not return
Remember, each of these decks requires power to build.  Unpowered players who may be interested in trying our format, perhaps drawn to it through oscar tan's "you too can play type 1" articles on starcity are going to be on the receiving end of all the "going off".  Now, if you are a newbie and you don't have all the power you may come to the tournament not expecting to win anyway due to your unfamiliarity with the cards, metagame, etc.  But you DO expect to be able to play your game.  You expect to have some interaction with your opponent positioning for the win.  You don't expect to get tangle wired on your first turn and then smokestacked on your second with a sphere of resistance out.  And before you could even cast your second spell, the game is essentially over.

With an experience like that why return to that format?  There really was no game at all.  The powered player was going to win strictly on the basis of the strength of his opening hand regardless of what the unpowered player did during his first turn.

This is especially bad right now for type 1 since the format is trying to grow in popularity.  People are intrigued by the format at present; we don't want to scare them off.




Powered players may lose interest due to a less interactive game
The game moves further away from being like chess and further towards being like blackjack.  Powered players may find themselves interacting less when playing eachother since about a third of the time there really isn't a game at all.  Decks today have more emphesis on broken openings than they have for quite some time.  Games in type 1 generally can be summed up like this:

a) One of the players goes broken, that player wins, no game occured.
b) Both of the players go broken, a game may actually occur.
c) Neither player goes broken, a game occurs.

For me anyway, winning is less satisfying if you don't feel like you outplayed your opponent.  And there is a big difference between the deck beating your opponent, and you beating your opponent.


As both powered and unpowered players lose interest in the game, tourneys dwindle and eventually the format dries up.  We need as many type 1 supporters as we can get, if we want our format to flourish.  If the game is not accessable to unpowered players it will die.



And I hate to be all doom and gloom, but there is more bad news.  Critcal mass of the restricted list is inevitable.  Eventually there will come a point (and we may be approaching it now) where it won't matter if such and such card drawer is restricted, since there will be another to take its place.  For example, people have been saying for some time that all academy needs is one more draw 7, eventually a card will see print that gets the job done.  And restrictions will not matter since you only need one.  Then you really will have combo winter just like in the old days.



Smmennen wrote an article for starcity recently where he said that force of will was the glue that holds our format together.  This is very true, both force of will and misdirection are both incredibly amazing not only for the reasons he mentioned but also because they allow you to interact with your opponent even when he wins the die roll.  And sometimes in this environment, that's the only chance you get.  The problem is not every deck can run force or misd.


Legend stated that when sligh is not competitive something is wrong with the format.  He picked up some heat for making that statement, but i am starting to believe he was right.  Sligh is the deck with the least amount of player interaction that still provides a game to its opponent.  It can't kill turn one and it can't virtually end the game turn one either.  It kills fast, but not so fast that your unpowered opponent feels cheated.



If your a deckbuilder, and you just like building decks and not playing them, then it may not bother you that sligh is not competitve.  It may not matter to you that unpowered players cannot realistically compete anymore.  

But if you honestly enjoy playing type 1 magic, and you want to continue having actual games where you have good back and forths with your opponents where you win or lose through out playing/bluffing rather than bullying them through card brokenness before the game begins, surely you see that something must be done.



The question is what do we do?  I open the discussion there.

[Lord of the Goats]

sligh is perfectly competative. i've always see multiple sligh decks at high table late in a tournament. i almost always see one make top 8. last week at ng, my friend made top 8 with goblin sligh. legend has done well with ankh sligh. is sligh tier 1? not in my opinion... but i'd easily put it as tier 2 (if i can say that without starting a tier argument). didn't sligh win that 5 mox tourney a little while ago?

also, fish is a pretty good budget deck that a lot of people have been looking at again.

i think the compareson to combo winter is a bit rash... especially considering we don't know what the post gat metagame looks like. in a metagame w/ gat, one would expect the enviroment to degenerate into a combo winter like state... the dci recognised this and kicked gat in the balls. i think everyone was pretty happy with type 1 after tnt came out but before gat did.

if you want maximum player interaction, play extended or 1.5. type 1 has always been about getting a randomly broken hand and just winning some of the time. keeper in the past has been almost based on winning off sheer brokeness. i see your point.... but i think that with gat out of the picture the metagame will go back to being healthy.

[Milton]

I know your frusterations.  But, let me say this.  The metagame is healthy.  It's good.  The metagame has shifted from slow lockdown decks like Keeper throwing down Moat and Disrupting Secpter to fast lockdown decks like Academy and Stax.  And, your right, they blow all over your face while you sit and take it.

But, I think the sideboard makes up for this.  Using the Sligh example you gave:

Quote unpowered player: Mountain, jackal pup, go

powered player: lotus, merchant scroll, ancestral, mox, fetchland, time walk, fetchland, tog

After boarding,

unpowered player: Mountain, go

powered player: lotus, merchant scroll, ancestral

unpowered player: Red Blast, bitch!

powered player: shit, done, go

unpowered player: Ankh of Mishra, done go

powered player: Fetchland, sac (take five) Fastbond?

You see.  At GenCon I'm playing Ankh Sligh.  Ive tested everything.  Academy, Stax, Mask, Keeper, Hulk, Fish.  Ankh Sligh is the most consistant deck of them all.  I'm playing in four or five tournaments and I'm running Ankh Sligh in most of them.  I might play Mask in one or two, but in the big tournaments I'm going Sligh.  It consistantly does very well.  Rack and Ruins, Red Blasts, Pyroblasts.  

Look, no one plays Wastelands anymore.  All of the combo or aggro combo decks run low mana curves.  Dangerously low.  Gush's restriction will make Wasteland more playable now.  Also, running 7 or 8 Red Blasts in the board and 4 Price of Progress main helps greatly against just about every combo deck out there.  How huge is Price of Progress now?

Anyway, I understand your frusteration.  It's the kind of frusteration that comes from playing against good decks and seeing those decks do what they are suposed to do on turn one.  It's the frusteration of seeing your opponent drop a first turn Factory - Sphere of Resistance - Mox, second turn Tangle Wire.  And it sucks.  You sit and take it.  You die seven turns later with no permenants in play.

But, these types of opening hands are rare.  And, your opponent could very easily play a land, lotus, Null Rod first turn and shit on your day.

So, I think the game is in pretty good shape.  We will see at GenCon for sure.  But, it sounds like Origins went off well.  Hopefully the new restrictions will make for an even healthier series of tournaments at GenCon.

[Fever]

I have to say, i agree with both of you.

While i really hate the fact that unpowered players have no decent chance at winning, i feel like the post-GAT metagame will be one of the most diverse and entertaining ones we have seen. Basically, we have to accept that as time goes on, T1 will become harder and harder to break into, because the power cards will be more difficult to aquire.


I once hypothesized that the eventual death of T1 will occur for two reasons:

1) The increasing price of power cards will make it near-impossible for new players to break in. With no new blood coming in, it is inevitable that the format will die out.

2) The sheer number of cards playable in the format will end up being its demise. If you look at the top decks right now, and compare them to those of 3-4 years ago, you see a huge gap in power level. Where once Keeper was the uncontested king, now it has several decks at or above the same level. Conclusion; decks are getting faster and more broken. With an ever increasing card pool, there is no doubt in my mind that the decks will just keep getting faster and more powerful, which will lead to a format that hinges on the roll of the dice.

Now, there is no need to panic, because we have not reached this breaking point yet. But with the way that T1 is set up, i dont see anyway that things will go otherwise. At best, Wizards stops printing any decent cards, and the decks never get better than they are right now. However, i doubt this will happen. Slowly, over the course of several blocks, more T1-worthy cards will emerge, and added to the current cardpool will lead to decks which bend the rules of the game to an unsavory extent. Vintage is about broken stuff happening, that is true, but there is a point(such as combo winter) where its no longer fun.

[Azhrei]

As one of the participants in the discussion, and of the unrepresented view that things are fine, I should probably say something here.

The builders out there work to do one thing: break a deck as much as possible. This means win as fast as possible, as often as possible, and be as resistant to disruption as possible. The builders are who allow a format to degenerate.

The players want to go to tournaments, have fun, and win. The only problem is that since tournament play rewards winning and not fun, players use what the builders have made. Everyone plays the most degenerate deck they can; if you don't, then you're either not interested in winning or you're a fool. In which case, why are you at a tournament instead of a casual night?

It should be noted that I saw maybe half the games played this past weekend with these so-called incredibly fast decks go to time limit draws and no turn three kills at all. How can this be? Well, almost everyone played good decks or at least decks with focus and power.

But what about budget decks? Well, what about them? They haven't had a realistic chance in ages. You show me more than a handful of major (40+ player with a majority of powered decks) tournaments that were won by a budget deck in the last year and I'll be surprised. Around here, Sligh has won twice and Suicide twice... in I think about 3 years now. Every other time has been a deck with all of the appropriate power (Keeper, Reap, OSE, TnT, Mask, Fish (which is blue)) . Budget decks went the way of the dodo for competitive Vintage since the day "Ritual-Necro" became an uncommon first turn-- and in fact, at that time the fully powered Trix deck was majorly superior to the budget Necro deck, so even that is an imperfect example.

The closest thing to a highly viable budget deck in Type One in the last 3 years has been BBS. It didn't take any dual lands, Workshops, or Masks to build.

Now, the flip side of this is that for most smaller, local tournaments, where most people are unpowered or uninformed, none of this matters. As I've been around to different stores in different states, I've seen places advertise Vintage tournaments that DIDN'T USE THE RESTRICTED LIST... because there wasn't any power around and no one could build anything broken if their life depended on it. Somewhere in the middle is the average place, with a couple powered players and mostly unpowered one-- where budget decks are still perfectly fine to play.

Budget decks are notoriously bad at a few things: card drawing and fast mana development.

Magic is notoriously about a few things: card drawing and fast mana development.

I saw a budget deck DEMOLISH a powered deck (the same one in PTW's example) this weekend, but it took a Gorilla Shaman, 3 Wastelands, and a Strip Mine to do it. This is not terribly different than it has always been.

The complaint here is not "budget decks can't win," so much as it is "it is becoming very obvious that budget decks can't win." Locally, budget decks are fine in probably 90% of the cases, but at something like Origins I strongly doubt it.

What does this mean for the game as a whole and so forth? Critical mass WILL be reached eventually, because nothing ever leaves our format barring bannings-- and even restriction won't solve the fundamental FACT that good Type One decks are either blue, Mask, or Workshop-based. Mana, cards, and speed are what define our format, and they ALWAYS HAVE. Nothing is really changing, but the inequities are becoming more apparent. How long have crackpots like me been saying that only a handful of decks are really worth playing? Now the evidence suggests more obviously that we've been right all along.

Type One has more viable decks than ever before. It also has the highest cost ceiling for entry to the upper tier. I'd rather have more good decks available than have the field return to "Keeper and a bunch of bad decks people hope might beat Keeper."

So, what do I say to people who complain that the format is becoming a problem? I say adjust to the format-- don't cry about it and expect the format to adjust to your desire to play with Mahamoti Djinn, because it's not going to happen.

[Fever]

Very well said Darren. I am in total agreement.

I just wanted to clarify something. I am not down on Vintage in the least, in fact i think its more fun right now than it has ever been. My metagame is one of those with mostly powered players, where budget decks have zero chance at winning. This is unfortunate for me, since i lack the power or the funds to aquire it. However, i much rather Montreal have a good T1 scene where i cant compete, then one that is scrubby where i can win on a regular basis. Of course, this keeps me out of tourneys except on those few occasions where i can borrow something powered, but thats really ok with me.

Basically, i think we should all enjoy it as much as we can while it lasts.

[Bastian]

Phantom Tape Worm: are you frustrated because budget decks aren't viable or is it because you don't have power to play one of the "big" decks available?

I'm aware of your frustration and what you must be feeling but things haven't been different at all for quite some time. And in that which they have become different it was for the better. I don't remember seeing such a healthy varied format as it has been for the last months and I'm glad for it.

I'm not a player with power available to play and I miss the oportunity to be able to play a "budget" deck. Budget decks are possible in less powered environments where they can be prevail. If you want to run along with the big decks either adapt your decks to pack the disruption they need to fight others or simply start sparing money to get power.

Yes, type 1 is the most expensive format when it comes to get into the format, but at least you know that you're not spending hundreds of bucks on cards that will rotate in some time and you'll get to enjoy the decks you make for more time.

As a type 1 player I'm not that much unhappy with the state of the format. I know I don't have the power to play the fully powered decks and I know that it's hard to build a unpowered deck that can beat a powered one, but most of the pleasure in this format comes from that too: from being able to break the mold of the format by breaking into new ideas.

Resuming... :

1) type 1 hasnt been this healthy in a long time. Plenty of different decks are available.

2) budget decks are possible in unpowered metagames. I think that they might be too when facing powered decks, if fully tuned for the metagame you're facing.

3) getting power is hard but cheaper than playing other formats such as standard.

4) you'll find it far more fun to play a fully powered deck if you have the patience to cummit to one.

Since I went through it sometime ago I'm just left with a question: is it really the state of the format that bothers you, or the fact that you cant play with power decks?

If you had access to a full set of power cards, duals, etc you would probably not complain about the state of the format and the lack of budget decks, etc, now would you?

One thing I disagree withe Azhrei is that tournament play or not, rewards or not Magic is a game and as such it's meant to be fun. It's not about winning. If the essence of the game has truly changed into that then something's very wrong, when we thing more about winning than playing for fun.

Don't get me wrong, I like to win too, but winning shouldn't be the reason that comes before having fun in playing tournament playing or otherwise.\n\n

[Fever]

Basketball, Football, Hockey... these are all games too, and they also have only one goal: Winning.

"You dont win the Silver, you lose the Gold."


Its a fact of life. Humans are highly competitive by nature, and no matter what the game, we like to win. The same is true for Magic, although it varies from one individual to another. I like playing Casual just as much as i enjoy tourneys, but one thing remains constant for me; i want to win. I am just as upset when i lose a casual game i thought i should have won as when i lose in the finals of a tourney.

[Grand Inquisitor]

Quote It should be noted that I saw maybe half the games played this past weekend with these so-called incredibly fast decks go to time limit draws and no turn three kills at all. How can this be? Well, almost everyone played good decks or at least decks with focus and power...I'd rather have more good decks available than have the field return to "Keeper and a bunch of bad decks people hope might beat Keeper

This sums it up for me.  I played at a tournament of nearly 30 people this past weekend; about 2/3 were fully powered, and the 5 proxy rule helped the rest.  I lost to sligh, and got beat down by spiritmongers in another round, while playing combo-keeper.  The deck with spiritmonger made T8.

I am concerned about combo becoming a problem for the format; the storm mechanic may have been a huge mistake.  However, right now life in Vintage is good:

Its growth in popularity, largely spurred by this site, is obvious almost world wide.  Format staples are becoming more expensive, but proxy tournaments help alleviate some of the pressure.  On top of this, Wotc has done a decent job of developing usable, but not overpowering cards and mechanics to keep the metagame moving.

I wasn't around 2 years ago, so I can't comment on whether budget decks are still competive.  However, I always consider sligh when constructing a deck & sideboard, and I'm not alone.

[Cluey]

i agree with most of what has been said and i think the post gush meta game will be an interesting one.
here in Melbourne Australia we are only just starting to get regular sanctioned type one events so we don't really have a meta game yet.
i am looking forward to the next few events as i have most of the cards to play basically anything i want.
but i don't know what to play and i know a couple of other people are feeling the same way.
for me it is not too much of a hassle as i play because i enjoy the game.  i also want to use the cards which cost me so much money to get    
sure i like to win but i don't mind being beaten, as long as i competed and didn't sit there with no chance.
the worst thing is losing after making a mistake.  so if i play well and don't make any mistakes and still lose its ok.

i wasn't playing during combo winter but i have heard about it.
it sounded bad and i expect it was worse playing in it.
if type one becomes like that then i will stop playing but i think that time will be a while off yet.

maybe the DCI will have to ban cards to keep it balanced even though they don't like doing that.
only time will tell.

[Rico Suave]

If things ever got to critical mass where only one deck dominated, and it was impossible to stop, then I'd think a few key bannings would be a good idea.  It may not be all too flattering, but it would certainly get the job done.

EDIT-Dammit, you beat me to it.

[Fever]

I dont want to speak for Darren, but when i talk about "critical mass", im not referring to one deck in particular. I mean that, because of the unlimited cardpool, the format will one day reach a critical mass where the sheer number of cards produces decks which are too good. Personally, i dont think decks should get any better or faster than the current crop of top decks, or else the game becomes just as much about luck as it is about skill.

[Crater Hellion]

As the game is now, I think its emphasis is too strong on luck and funds as compared to its emphasis on play/deck design skill. Power makes a huge difference. I think budget decks can win, but they will not win often, come the July 1 metagame. Although my only power card is a mox jet, even if I owned power I would see that something needs to be done to balance the playing field. Something close to power needs to happen, perhaps a set of fifteen cards legal only in type one tournaments as to not ruin the other formats that bring in WotC's cash. These cards could be better than average cards like brainstorm, but not as good as Ancestral Recall, for example.

[Smmenen]

Tape Worm.  The point I am confused about is how you think the issues you articulated are _worse_ come July 1st?   If anything, budget decks are marginally more useful now that GAT is dead.  

Steve

[Kheoinn]

I've been pondering this very same thought for quite a while now, and I've come to a few conclusions and solutions.

1. Reprinting of the Power 9 and other rare cards is inevitable.
Because there is a limited amount of these cards, it puts a strict limit on the number of Type 1 players that can be very competative. Reprinting these cards would bring in thousands of new players who, with the now available cards, can easily get into the Type 1 game for possibly less than some expensive Type 2 decks. Of course, I do not mean reprinting them in a normal expansion or edition, as that would severly mess up Type 1.x and Type 2. They would have to be reprinted in a special edition (like "Anthologies") that means they are legal in any format in which the original card is legal.

2. Bannings are inevitable.
Because, unlike other formats, the Type 1 card pool never gets smaller, this means decks will never become obsolete (barring solution decks and metagame problems). For instance, TnT will never get slower unless the DCI does something. At a certain point, there will be so many cards that could go into a deck that even an entirely restricted deck will be too fast. At this point, we need to go past restricting, and ban cards.

There are two ways, in my opinion, to temporarily solve this problem. They are:

1. Restrict key cards in every deck to slow the environment down.
We all know that GAT was too fast for this metagame, and that it needed to be put on equal footing with every other deck. But to slow the metagame down, you can not just take individual decks and slow them down. You have to take every competative deck, and restrict cards in it. For instance, here would be an example.
Keeper: Cunning Wish
Hulk: Intuition
TnT: Mishra's Workshop
Smokestack: Mishra's Workshop
Rector Trix: Academy Rector
These are the majority of the prominent decks right now. Restricting these cards would put them on equal footing with most every other deck, and slow the metagame down tremendously. The decks would still be viable, but not nearly as powerful as they are now.

2. Print Solution Cards.
The second thing that can happen is that WotC can print cards that are on par in terms of speed with the deck they stop. For instance, Serenity and Pulverize are both potent hosers against TnT and Stax. If the DCI printed cards that can be played first or second turn that will slow the problem deck down, then the game won't be as much of "I can't do anything about it." Notice the difference between slowing the opponent down and benefiting the playe rplaying the card. No one would want the environment to turn into a game of whoever gets the bomb against that certain deck wins. The card would only give that player more of a decent chance against the deck. Of course, these cards wouldn't be given to dominant decks, but instead given to colors that don't have dominant decks in them (White, mostly, but Green as well).

Of course, without putting any of this into action, this is mostly just theory. But most actions start out as theory, and they have seemed to work so far. I hope the DCI will do something eventually about the metagame gradually speeding up.

[Phantom Tape Worm]

@ lord of the goats: Perhaps i am overreacting by making the comparison to combo winter, but i don't think i am.  The point of this discussion is to acknowledge the problem so that we can do something about it before it gets out of hand.  There is no denying that decks are getting better, ie. faster, stronger, more resistant to disruption.  As things are currently in these "top decks", the opening hand already has as much if not more to do with your possibilty of winning a match than your play skill.  If this trend continues and the problem becomes more pronounced than it is now, not only will unpowered decks be totally unable to compete thereby leading to less new players, but the game degenerates into something that is not a game at all.  And even old powered players see less point in "playing", since it's just a gamble on who has the better opening hand and who won the die roll.

In the past the random and rare broken opening has been tolerable, but these days it is becoming more and more common.  My worry is that we are getting to a point where it is the rule rather than the exception.




@ milton: sideboards cannot address the plethora of broken decks you must expect to face in a big tourney like gen con.  Sure 8 blasts may be a good idea vs hulk.  It may even be enough to win, but you still have to plan for trix, tnt, mask, academy, etc. etc.  AND these decks can still bypass your blasts/hate/tech by winning the die roll and doing something that your unpowered deck is utterly incapable of before you have the opportunity to do anything.  And deck building is getting better, broken openings are becoming less uncommon.




@ fever:

Quote Now, there is no need to panic, because we have not reached this breaking point yet. But with the way that T1 is set up, i dont see anyway that things will go otherwise. At best, Wizards stops printing any decent cards, and the decks never get better than they are right now. However, i doubt this will happen. Slowly, over the course of several blocks, more T1-worthy cards will emerge, and added to the current cardpool will lead to decks which bend the rules of the game to an unsavory extent. Vintage is about broken stuff happening, that is true, but there is a point(such as combo winter) where its no longer fun.

This is exactly what i'm talking about, the eventual death of type 1.  I came to this conclusion for the first time this weekend, and the realization of it's truth fragged me enough to  post this topic to begin with.  I guess what i'm looking for is an answer to these questions: Can we stop it?  If so how?



@ azhrei: but things are not headed in the direction of being "fine".  When budget decks are no longer an option, we lose new blood and the format loses popularity, ie. players which are necessary for tournaments.  This is bad.  But still much worse, is that the game is moving toward something that is not a game where playing skill has much relavance.  And i can't say this enough, opening hands are becoming much more important.  Look at a matchup like rector trix vs stax:  

"Do you go broken?"
"No, do you?"
"Yeah."
"shit, you win."

This is a typical "game" for two of our environment's"top decks", but there was no "game" to this at all.  There was no back and forth, no bluffing, no interaction.  Well, barring the mulligan.

Sliverking was dead on in his statement: "It's getting to the point where the early game is the die roll, the mid game is the opening hand (mulliganing), and the late game is turns 1 through 3."


When play skill leaves the format, this is the problem.  I cannot adjust to winning my die roll, and aggressive mulliganing still leaves too much out of my hands.  I'm not asking to be able to hard cast verdant force every game, but i am expecting to have a "game" to begin with.




@ bastian: I am not so much frustrated as i am worried.  I can get all the power i need through borrowing or trading, and i can play just about anything i want.  For me personally, the problem is not about "i can't compete", but more about, "am I actually competing?" It is becoming the case that decks can just win based on opening hands.  And because of excellent deck construction, they in large part, play themselves.  This is a testament to our phenominal type 1 deck builders yes, but at what cost?  Sure i can go to a tournament and roll with hulk or GAT or stax etc. But lately my play skill matters less and less, and what satisfaction do i get from winning without truely playing?  I didn't win, the deck did.  And I didn't even get the chance to win, because my deck ended the game before it really got started.

Also, like fever said, in truth competitive magic is not meant to be fun, but it is meant to be a game.

Quote Basketball, Football, Hockey... these are all games too, and they also have only one goal: Winning.

And none of these games would be as popular or have endured as long as they have if they were over before they got started, or largely decided on the coin toss.  Could you imagine a football game that is decided on the first completed pass?  This is where we are headed boys, and it needs to be stopped before it gets any further.

[Fever]

I have actually been talking to people about the eventual death of the format for months, both online and in real life, and most people probably thought i was crazy. I am sad to say it contributed to one of our best members quitting the game altogether, and who can blame him? Why keep playing a format if you can see its certain doom looming on the horizon?

Now, for myself, im going to try to enjoy Vintage for as long as its playable, but i dont see Wizards doing anything to save it. The fact is, even with the renewed interest, i dont think they care all that much.

Fact: The only way the game can survive the long run is if they ban/restrict several cards which are not necessarily worthy of restriction such as Workshop, Intuition, Rector, etc. While i certainly dont think these cards should be restricted at this time, or even that these particular cards need the axe, something along these lines is what is needed to ensure the continued growth of Vintage.

[Zherbus]

I just want to add that Proxy tournaments have really kicked the interest of this format into high gear. I can't imagine why.

[Fever]

Quote (Zherbus @ June 30 2003,12:39)I just want to add that Proxy tournaments have really kicked the interest of this format into high gear. I can't imagine why.

Does this mean you would support the printing of an Anthologies-like set containing all the power cards?

[MoreFling]

Quote (Fever @ June 30 2003,21:43)

Quote (Zherbus @ June 30 2003,12:39)I just want to add that Proxy tournaments have really kicked the interest of this format into high gear. I can't imagine why.

Does this mean you would support the printing of an Anthologies-like set containing all the power cards?

Actually, I would.

t1 is great fun, and that would really offer the opportunity to play it competative to everyone, and also on a higher (pro) level.

[Lord of the Goats]

Quote I guess what i'm looking for is an answer to these questions: Can we stop it?  If so how?

the anwer (assuming i agree with your points) is that we can't stop it. but there are other solutions to keeping new players in the game. proxy tournaments for one do this very well, and while they can't be sanctioned it eliminates all of the budget deck arguments since you typically have 5-8 free cards to play something. with 8 that lets you play any control deck in the format if you have drains. and lets you play pretty much anything outside of tnt or stax

should budget decks really be able to be highly competative though? if you ignore the price aspect and avalibility there is absolutle no reason to go unpowered. as long as everyone's on equal footing it doesn't matter how fast everything is. your example about stax vs rector trix i don't think is reflective of type 1 as a whole. trix is combo so it's goal is to not interact with you. stax is a lock deck... lock decks are notorious for not letting you interact. by compareing 2 decks that are build to have as little interaction as possible i think you're a bit skewed. look at u/r phid or keeper vs tnt, there's plenty of interaction there and play skill definately plays a huge part in the outcome of the match.

as for decks just winning on opening hands, of course it happens. it also happens in all other formats.

[pernicious dude]

Wizards has said any number of times that reprints will never happen.
The option, of course, is what we have now: proxy tournaments.
Fine, if you don't care about sanctioning.
You might be able to make a case for proxies to the DCI,
since they make nothing off the cards they won't reprint.

Bannings have already happened.
It's called 1.5.
It's a remarkably good format.
I wish someone around here played it.

Another option might be to restrict the total number of restricted cards allowed in a single deck.
This would probably mean that the weaker restricted cards would simply not get played.

[Dante]

In terms of the "take the competive decks and restrict a key card in them", what exactly is the point?  I.E. which decks are we trying to "put on an equal footing".  Let me tell you this, there were a whole list of decks that were competitive (i.e. had chance of top 8'ing at tournaments) pre-GAT, your whole list and also fish, sligh, reanimator, U/r phid, ABM (say what you want, people won with it), and even suicide/void still did well in cases (I'm sure I'm missing a few as well).  Exactly which decks are we trying to put these now-neutered decks on par with?  Bad R/g kird ape decks? (those of you with good R/g decks please don't take offense).  If your deck has little-to-no disruption/removal/countering, of course your going to get rolled.  Please tell me which decks we are trying to bring the others down to.

Doing that would defeat the whole purpose of Type 1 - to play with older, faster, more powerful cards.  If I wanted to play with 4 casting cost creatures that I needed to wait until turn 3 or 4 to cast, I'd play Type 2.  Dumbing down decks to make "budget" decks playable would be a far worse offense to Type 1 than leaving Gush unrestricted.  I can tell you now that I would rather have the Type 1 environment that we have now over restricting older, non-broken cards to accomodate "budget" players to keep the environment alive.  If I can't play Type 1 more or less as it is (good decks, with power, with broken stuff, etc), then I'll sell my cards and find another game I love (chess, poker, computer games) to spend my free time.  Again, if the choice is between 2-3 more years of Type 1 as-is and then it dying out OR having to dumb down the environment to extended-type decks to accomodate having enough players, I'll take the 2-3 years of Type 1 like I like it.

Let me tell you, I've played a lot of games with a top tier deck (Keeper, GAT, TnT) against other top tier decks (Keeper, GAT, TnT, Vengeur Mask, Tainted Mask, U/r Phid) and had a lot of 20+ minute games that did NOT involve "drop the opening hand and ignore the opponent" despite both players having good hands.  Yes, I've had 2 minute games that involved "turn 1 juggernaut, turn 2 juggernaut, good game", but that's type 1.  I've had plenty of games where turn 1 juggernaut is met by ritual, mox - edict, hymn.  Again I here this cry about budget decks, but there were only really 2-3 that were competitive (sligh, suicide, r/g zoo) and sligh and suicide will more than likely be just fine come tomorrow.

As for bannings are inevitable because "this means decks will never become obsolete" - decks will become obsolete due to new decks coming on the scene (i.e. the way suicide wasn't as good due to TnT/Mask), not from bannings.  There's a very good chance that 50% of the viable decks now aren't viable in 2-3 years because other decks have taken over.

Dante

[Matt The Great]

Quote (Lord of the Goats @ June 30 2003,14:52)as for decks just winning on opening hands, of course it happens. it also happens in all other formats.

No, it doesn't. For awhile last season it looked like 1.x would be that way, but the format stabilized and ended up being pretty good. And nothing in Standard relies on its opening hand so much. Even Sligh is dependent on drawing something good to supplement its initial seven.

[Kheoinn]

Dante: Your point of view is extremely narrow. It sounds like you only care about yourself, and your personal enjoyment for the next few years. What about the people without power? The people who are just getting into the game? Even the people with power, who (have some people have said) feel like the deck is just playing itself?

And saying that "That is Type 1" is just giving into to what could happen. GAT was "just Type 1." Combo Winter was "just Type 1." Black Summer was "just Type 1." Does that mean we should have left it alone? No! Thats why Mind's Desire and Gush were restricted. It was to keep the game in check, and to make sure that the reality of the format isn't like the stereotypes that many players who are thinking about Type 1 hear every day.

And I really don't think that decks like TnT will every become completely obsolete. You can still play Sligh today and do moderately well. You probably don't have great chances of winning, but you will do well. Also, I'm not talking about the exact decklist people are using today. Decks adapt to a metagame, but rarely do they completely die. For instance, Sligh turned into Ankh Sligh, Suicide turned into Brought Suicide, and Keeper turned into Paragon, Combo, and Trinity Keeper. How long have these decks been playable? They've all been around for a long time, and I don't forsee these things dying out. I just think we've had a spur in intelligence and that we now have better and more deckbuilders than ever before, leading to more and more decks.


Question: Does WotC have the complete rights to print these cards? Or is there some way we can get around this, print our own, and start our own league?

[Radagast]

Answer: Yes, no.
Or rather, you could use (high-quality) proxies or appr/MWS, which is what people currently do.

[Saucemaster]

Quote When play skill leaves the format, this is the problem.  I cannot adjust to winning my die roll, and aggressive mulliganing still leaves too much out of my hands.  I'm not asking to be able to hard cast verdant force every game, but i am expecting to have a "game" to begin with.

I agree with the sentiment of this, and let me start by saying that I've had vague worries about the format, too.  But while the format is speeding up, and more decks need to be able to "go off" in order to be competitive on the highest level, I don't think we've reached the above state of affairs yet.  Look at it this way: what evidence do we have that playskill is actually becoming less of an issue?  In my metagame, the best players in the tournament are, 95% of the time, the ones who win.  And honestly, we have some mediocre players who have a full set of power and bring card-for-card copies of a deck posted here on TMD.  Do they do better than the mediocre players who bring budget decks?  Yes, usually.  Do they do better than the good players with similarly broken decks?  Nope.  Almost never.

Or take a look at high-level Type 1 events.  Smmenen, as I and many other people on TMD can attest, is a very good player, who playtests well and often, and who has a very good fundamental understanding of the game.  And he's ripping it up at Origins.  And one of the best of our players here at C&J's just did very, very well at the Nationals T1 side event.  I still see playskill playing a huge role in the format.  As long as that's still the case, I think the format is probably doing fine.

[Azhrei]

When I talk about critical mass, I mean a point where there are so many good cards that restrictions become irrelevant.

When I talk about winning, I mean in tournaments. Tournaments are about winning. Casual games are about having fun. If you have fun at a tournament, more power to you, but come tournament time I am interested in winning.

I think there's nothing inherently wrong with a game where the early game is the die roll and so forth. The reason is pretty simple: it has always been that way.

Brian Weissman said, in 1995, that the Deck matchups could always be determined by who drew LoA or Mind Twist in their opening hand. In fact, the very reason we have mulligans is that the opening hand is so important; it defines how well you will do immediately upon being drawn.

All else being UNequal, play skill plays a factor. Play skill can also win an otherwise lost cause. Play skill ONLY matters when there is an advantage or disadvantage. The games I play against SliverKing are almost always decided by luck because the skill of the players is comparable, assuming we have equally good decks. If skill and deck quality are equal, luck wins games.

Magic cannot be even mostly about skill because there are too many random elements. Who goes first? What deck are you using? How are the cards arranged? Does your opponent know your deck?

If you want something that can always be just about skill, play Chess. Magic is designed to have many variables, which is why the AI on Magic software was awful.

Furthermore, I will make the claim that MOST of what we consider "skill" is actually knowing what deck to play, having the cards for it, knowing how to play the deck, and then playing the best list possible. Most of what ACTUALLY happens in a match is 100% predictable-- and it all comes down to the draw and maybe one or two decisions thereafter. If the game drags out into the "skill" area, what you are actually doing is testing to see who topdecks better. This will generally be the deck with the most tutors and draw spells.

This is why all the best players played control for so long; those decks drew cards and topdecked very well. None of that ever has anything to do with in-game skill unless you want to count an awareness of your deck as skill. Removing Misdirection from the graveyard with Psychatog to Cunning Wish for it to stop a Mind Twist doesn't make me a skilled player; it makes me a player who was aware of my own deck's card interaction. It makes me an informed player.

What makes me, or anyone, a skilled player is simply:

1) What cards are in my deck and sideboard?
2) How much do I know about how all these cards work together?
3) How do I react to situation X when situation X occurs? Do I know about everything that might happen, as well as what my opponent is likely to be playing?

What affects my actual games are merely:

1) Which/how many cards are in my opening hand?
2) Am I playing or drawing?
3) Do I topdeck well or not?
4) Do I forget about anything important from #2 or #3 from above at any point?

It seems to me that all that actually denotes skill WHILE PLAYING is whether or not you forget what to do in a particular situation. It's really the simplest thing in the world, but I think a lot of people confuse familiarity with skill. Familiarity is what lets you make correct decisions based on incomplete information, and that is just a matter of practice.

So, success in Magic is attributable to:

1) Available card pool
2) Information
3) Practice
4) Luck

Skill is an illusion. It's all experience and luck.

[Lord of the Goats]

Quote (Matt The Great @ June 30 2003,13:24)

Quote (Lord of the Goats @ June 30 2003,14:52)as for decks just winning on opening hands, of course it happens. it also happens in all other formats.

No, it doesn't. For awhile last season it looked like 1.x would be that way, but the format stabilized and ended up being pretty good. And nothing in Standard relies on its opening hand so much. Even Sligh is dependent on drawing something good to supplement its initial seven.

what hapens in obc when your opponent drops turn 2 mongrel, turn 3 and 4 arrogant wurm and backs it up with circular logic? you either mutilate or die. what do you do when your opponent goes mox diamond, hermit druid playing first?

obviously type 1 is the fastest most broken format, but "i win" hands aren't a new thing. i'm not saying that most decks rely soley on their intial hands at all. i'm saying it does happen in all formats (although i haven't played type 2 or limited in some time) and it's not a bad thing.

we're not flipping coins to see who wins unless it's a combo on combo matchup or something similar. look at the oposite end of the spectum which is a control mirror it's all about playskill.

another thing (which will probably help elaborate my stance here) is that as a builder i really hate having things banned/resticted before i can break them or sufficiently combat them. i'm perfectly happy to leave gush unrestricted... and mind's desire, and necro.

Quote And saying that "That is Type 1" is just giving into to what could happen. GAT was "just Type 1." Combo Winter was "just Type 1." Black Summer was "just Type 1." Does that mean we should have left it alone? No! Thats why Mind's Desire and Gush were restricted. It was to keep the game in check, and to make sure that the reality of the format isn't like the stereotypes that many players who are thinking about Type 1 hear every day.

the flip side to that is, would it have been better if those cards were never printed? no, it wouldn't. combo winter was what attracted me to magic to begin with. it's good to have something degenerate sometimes, it presents challenges which deck builders need to have. it's so boring to try to break the same metagame over and over with no shifts. since type 1 doesn't rotate, the only way to provide rotation is by creating format altering decks and then restricting them later and letting the dust settle.

[Saucemaster]

Quote It seems to me that all that actually denotes skill WHILE PLAYING is whether or not you forget what to do in a particular situation. It's really the simplest thing in the world, but I think a lot of people confuse familiarity with skill. Familiarity is what lets you make correct decisions based on incomplete information, and that is just a matter of practice.

With all due respect... then what exactly is your definition of "skill"?  It sounds like what you're describing is, in fact, exactly skill.  Poker is a great comparison here--much more so than either Chess or Blackjack as in the original post.  Everything ends up depending on your hand in Poker, as long as you reach a showdown.  But playskill is what always separates the men from the boys in Poker.  Whether you call that skill "familiarity and a little luck" or "Xtreme skillz!!" matters little.  The basic idea is still that someone who notices more plays, is familiar with the deck and the matchup he's in, and (most importantly) can react quickly and correctly to never-before-encountered situations--which I'm going to go WAY out on a limb and call "skill"--will do much better than someone without all those things.

Quote Play skill ONLY matters when there is an advantage or disadvantage.

This is true.  However, when was the last time you played a game where someone didn't, at some point in the game, have either a slight advantage or slight disadvantage?  I agree that games between equally- or nearly equally-skilled players will be much closer to the expected win percentages in a matchup than between two players of differing skill levels, but my point is that skill will always have some bearing on each game.  It may not be enough to win you the game, but over the long haul, making the correct decisions more frequently than your opponent will win you more games.  It's that simple.

Quote It seems to me that all that actually denotes skill WHILE PLAYING is whether or not you forget what to do in a particular situation.

Think of it like practicing an instrument: when it comes time to give a recital, you should have the piece thoroughly memorized, you've developed an interpretation of it, you hopefully understand the music, etc.  That's all part of what it MEANS to say that I am "skilled" with an instrument.