Lately, I have read many posts where a member of this com...

[Gradek]

Lately, I have read many posts where a member of this community states that power/type 1 is an investment and that one can always sell out after a while for a profit, thereby essentially getting paid for entertainment.  I have serious issues with the "investment" arguments, as they mislead new vintage players into believing prices will never go down and attempt to persuade "budget" players into buying power.

While I will admit that prices have gone up over the last 10 years and quite dramatically in the last 1-2, this does not mean that prices will never go down again.  Let us not forget the Nasdaq of 1998-2000.  Probably the most significant factor in the recent increase in power prices is the $/Euro exchange rate.  As the dollar fell to the Euro, power prices went up as Europeans were able to essentially outbid Americans without actually spending more.  This is only a temporary situation, as the euro will not stay at its current high vs. the dollar.  I say this not as an anti-euro smack, but in real terms, as the EU does not like a weak dollar either (it costs their exporters money).  

Also, one must take into account the banned/restricted list, as at any moment WOTC can instantly change the value of a card dramatically.  What will you do if Monday Workshop and Bazaar are restricted and Illusionary Mask is re-errated.  Many will "lose" hundreds of dollars with no control.  

My message to the community is treat Vintage as a game and enjoy it.  If you have or want power great, it is more fun to play with and helps you win, but please do not call it an investment.

**Sold my power on Ebay in June**
***Loved playing with power, it is how magic was meant to be played, just ran out of time to play***

[Crater Hellion]

But it is an investment. The definition of investment is "something acquired for future benefit". This does not mean that a benefit is guaranteed- just that a benefit is hoped for. Perhaps the only benefit is getting to play with them. It's still an investment, is it not?

[BuboniC]

Quote (Gradek @ Nov. 25 2003,11:49)My message to the community is treat Vintage as a game and enjoy it.  If you have or want power great, it is more fun to play with and helps you win, but please do not call it an investment.

Listen: This is not true, Magic in general should be treated as a game, not an investment, vintage cannot possibly be treated as a game, unless you want too be bad at it. Budget decks are good- but they will never be as good as the real thing of the budget deck. But now with 5 proxy tournaments, players can build a medioker deck, put power in it, and win a tourney. But there is another problem, from what I have seen, these decks get power arent winning the tournaments, and the people who already had the power are. Vintage isnt a game, its an investment, you buy the power too play for more power, then you can either play another and win, win boxes and sell them, and eventually you get your money back. T2 is a game, because budget wins everything because the only deck is budget compared too T1.

[Kleith]

What? your post has completely lost me! #1... none of those things you said will happen. they will not change the use of mask just because of a borderline tier1/tier2 combo.

and it is an investment because it gives entertainment, and realistically you can sell cards back for a profit almost always!

is it just me or are you trying to say make is a fad? its been around 10 years and its not going anywhere for 10 more thats for curtain. this isnt pokemon a game that died off just like the card values. so as long as people buy cards values will go up.

the fact about budget decks winning is misleading as well. the only seriously competitive budget deck is the U and UrPhish decks.

[blue_negator]

How does this even make sense?  There's no such thing as a "guaranteed" investment.  Even if you buy U.S. bonds you're still running the risk of a default if the U.S. collapses (highly unlikely but still a possibility)  I don't think anyone here is trying to mislead new players into buying power cards.  Of course buying mishra's workshops might be a "bad" investment and buying ancestral recalls may be a "good" investment but nonetheless they "are" investments.

[Smash]

My power gives me a return on investment much higher than my stock   Not only do I get to play with it, the value increases 20% a year.

[jazzy kat]

Good bad, whatever. I believe that when the dollar and the Euro equalize (and they will, because with all production, tariff, and margins held equal our goods cost less making European goods less competitive in global markets) the price of power will go down.

Someone else mentioned that Europeans are able to pay more in US dollars without actually paying more (for them) which is pretty true. This has pushed up ebay prices more than they normally should go up, despite the recent interest in T1.

I got some really good deals on some of the cards I own. Remember when berserk was restricted? I picked up 2 of them on ebay, one for $13 shipped, and the other for $20 shipped. I bet that some of you can remember paying 25 dollars for mana drains. Anyway, I am still checking around for power but I have enough for five proxy to make anything except dragon and mud and that is probably all that I will ever have.

As to the comment that this is a game not an investment. Well technically anything can be an investment if you are planning on getting a return on it in the future. For example: a farmer has a bunch of cow poo that he needs out of his stalls so his cows will be healthy and cleaner. So you enterprisingly decide to invest your time/effort/money into removing it from him for free because you want to sell all natural fertilizer to earth friendly people. Here the payoff is pretty certain, but between the time you clean out the stalls and the time you get the fertilizer ready to sell the price may have sky rocketed or dropped through the floor for all natural fertilizer. Obviously it isn't likely but this was for illustrative purposes.

Also, remember that the stock market isn't around for the peons to get rich, and hasbro doesn't keep MTG around for our benefit they both do it for theirs. So whatever makes them money they will do.

[BreathWeapon]

I fail to see how Magic is any less precarious than the stock market  Lets see, the return on Jewelry has increased for over 10 years with total disregard for any Economic down turn ... thats a lucrative investment in my eyes.

You have less control over the FTC than you have over WOTC. I would buy a Mox Saphire over a piece of Tech Stock anyday ... anytime.

Granted, there are "High Risk" Magic Cards like there are "High Risk" stocks. The existance of un-resticted Workshop and Bazaar of Baghdad may be in question to some, mostly fools, but the buyer has to take that into account before he purchases the card. Nevertheless, it will be a cold day in hell before an Ancestral Recall or Time Walk decreases in their value.

I think you gave an incredibly one way view on the matter.

I kick myself every day for holding stock in Enron, and keep my Power cards at the top of my lock box.

[MTG_Djinn]

I think of my power as an investment. As long I dont lose money on them im VERY happy. And if it turns out that Wizard "kills" magic tomorrow, I can look back on the many many houres that I have happely spend.

-MTG_Djinn

[The Advantage]

Magic is a hobby that people play for enjoyment; I fail to see how it is relevant if it is classified as a game or an investment.  Do you go out and spend $300 on a new bike for yourself or your child without shopping around?  Do you spend anywhere from $500 to $2000+ for a computer without pricing your alternatives and comparing the performance of each?  If you do, then you are a bad consumer.  There are bad consumers as there are bad magic players.  Do you feel sorry for bad consumers or do you laugh at their ignorance?  If, by investment, you mean that one must make an informed decision on his or her purchases, then yes, magic is an investment.

If someone purchases a playset of an expensive card without considering the ramifications said card has on the metagame(ie said card distorts the format), then I fail to sympathize with that person, as "investing" that much money without investing the time to analyze your decision only displays stupidity.  My question is this:  Why does one concern onerself with the spending habits of idiots?

The only reason I could possibly see for Bazaar, Workshop, or Mask getting the axe would be if they are distorting 1.5, and we all know that separate lists are needed for the two formats.

[BreathWeapon]

Quote (The Advantage @ Nov. 25 2003,14:53)The only reason I could possibly see for Bazaar, Workshop, or Mask getting the axe would be if they are distorting 1.5, and we all know that separate lists are needed for the two formats.

Or if anybody is retarded enough to listen to

[Hunted Wumpus]

Vintage magic is defintatly an Investment. I have a good friend that makes good money off buy/sell of MTG and MTG online w/ his specialty being T1 magic. Not that im sharing any really amazing information, but the key is to USE YOUR HEAD! Dont pay $350 for a Unlimited Timewalk, when you can get a perfect looking one for 290-300. Unfortunatly e-bay usually is a full or overpriced market. I have been buying many expensive cards and power latey and i watch ebay, and so far i have seen e-bay is not the place to buy cards w/ value over $50 a piece. Generally you can get the cards for 5-15% cheaper in other sources. Watch what you buy, dont buy cards at the peak of popularity, example Goblin Lacky, a Saga Uncommon with 1.50-2.00 value was going for 5.00 on ebay. I wouldent suggest buying bazars or workshops right now, since they are on a watch list. Just because cards go onto the watch list donsn't mean that they aren't sellable. Bazar and workshop are still very easy to sell right now. As for power, its a safe investment. Just like most investments prices will fulxuate, but unless wizards shuts down, DCI stops running tourney's power will hold its price. If you want to play Vintage, there is no need to be scared for investing in High Price Cards, generally your fairly safe.

[Tha Gunslinga]

I hate to say it, but I do look at my collection as an investment.  I know what it's worth, and when I'm buying cards I rarely buy anything at market value, let alone above market price.  Ebay is full of bargains, if you look carefully.  While M:TG wasn't originally intended to be an investment, that's what it's become.

[TylerS]

All that said, it's a different kind of investment. You might not be likely to lose all your money on jewelry, but you may lose some... say you lose $100/card on your P9 set, after you've played with it for five years. $900 for five years of entertainment is... a lot better deal than most other movie/amusement park/"trade money for entertainment" propositions I've seen lately.

[Loci]

Just to set the record straight. $ versus € has made things easier for European buyers, but certainly not close to equal, let alone a benefit. Sure the Euro is worth more at the moment so when I bid €300 on e-bay someone in the US needs to dish out about $330 to reach the same bid. Unfortunately, the US buyer does not have to pay taxes for bringing goods into another country. Oversea buyers do. I bought a Ancestral Recall on SCG which cost me $269 for the card (Which is €244.55). A good deal? No way, because I didn't know that I also had to pay €57,50 for bringing it into the country. In the end the card + tax + shipment cost me a bloody $376.25. I could have bought a Beta for that much money. The only edge to be gained here is to ship the card(s) unsecured which is not a good idea. In the end the only good thing is that it is very hard to find power here, so in the end the demand versus availability would have me either search forever or dish out the cash anyway.

Further more. You could see P9 and such as an investment and you also could ignore this and just see it as a game.
I use to have a Black Lotus and 3 moxen. I was unable to sell them for more then I payed for them. Since then I changed my view on the game. I want those cards again, but I have no intention to sell them again. Dishing out the cash becomes a one time cash throw without return (Moneywise) just like food or something like that.

What I am saying is that I just want to make it clear that it is a certain view on things and there is no right or wrong view in this, so discussing it is rather pointless.

[Puschkin]

Vintage cards are an investment as a sideeffect. I dont mind paying 150 Euro on a Mox bexause I know I can get that money back at any time. I do not buy them for profit, though, but I am much more comfortable with them than I am with Type II cards. Those are like your PC, they have an expiration date and you can see your money flushing down the toilet while they are getting older. Vintage cards, otoh, are like wines that get riper. And once in a while one of them is dicovered to be very tatsy like Bazaars right now.

Anyway, if I am in serious need for money, I can cash in my collection. Without being able to do this, I would not be able to maintain this wonderful hobby.

[dandan]

In order for there to be a healthy Type I format in 10 years' time, there need to be reprints or proxies. I would sacrifice the value of my power cards for either of those.

Most car owners are in favour of roads.

To be honest the more widespread availability of Type I power would increase the number of people wanting 'real' cards and could possibly increase prices of Alpha and Beta cards. I would guess that A/B/U Icys have increased in value lately. (they declined in value, not due to the ugly IA card but due to being obsolete).

[Milton]

Quote In order for there to be a healthy Type I format in 10 years' time, there need to be reprints or proxies. I would sacrifice the value of my power cards for either of those.

Most car owners are in favour of roads.

To be honest the more widespread availability of Type I power would increase the number of people wanting 'real' cards and could possibly increase prices of Alpha and Beta cards. I would guess that A/B/U Icys have increased in value lately. (they declined in value, not due to the ugly IA card but due to being obsolete).

You are taking a whole bunch of factors and using them to justify reprints.  The arguments you make are not good.

First, the value of T1 cards (P9, Drains, Workshops, etc...) is based on the very rare aspect of these cards.  There are only so many Lotuses, the demand is high and a shortage is created.  If demand continues to grow, as it has, while the supply remains the same, as it will, then prices increase.  In fact, every day there are fewer and fewer Black Lotuses of high quality.  Supply is diminishing.  Some get damaged, some get destroyed, some get beat-up through play.  So, 10 years from now there may very well be only a few PS10, pack mint Lotuses available.  To expect these cards to sell for anything less than a premium price is insane.

Reprinting cards would crush the prices of these cards.  This can be seen in the basic argument for reprinting cards: reprints will make more cards available, thereby decreasing prices so everyone can compete.  Anyone who thinks that they can reprint cards and not see a decrease in price is ignorant.  In fact, the basic argument proves that cards will lose value, otherwise why reprint?  

Begin rant: Well, I don't want everyone to play my format.  I like the fact that there is a high price of entry into the format.  For the most part Type 1 is like an elite brotherhood of good, considerate players.  I like that.  You ever been to a pro-tour qualifier?  It sucks.  Sniveling, whining, cheating, stalling bastards is what they are, the whole lot of 'em.  I like our brotherhood.  End rant:

If you want to blame anyone for the increase in the value of T1 cards, blame Rakso and Zherbus and Smmenen.  These guys have really done a good job acting as ambasadors for our format, writing articles, maintaining web sites, offering advise.  This is what has generated interest, created a buzz on the street and brought people to us.  The result has been an increase in demand for cards and tournaments, and a subsequent increase in price.

Also, to address the original issue, many people are attracted to T1 because they know that their cards won't lose value.  I remember when a foil Masticore was worth $70 and you could trade one for a Library of Alexanderia.  I remember when a foil Absorb was as valuable as a Mana Drain.  I remember watching a guy trade his four Abayances for a Mox Ruby.  What is an Abayance worth now, $2?  Maybe?

At least with T1 you know that your cards will maintain value.  Many people appreciate that.  So, yes it's a game, but it's a game that brings in more people because it is also a nice, safe investment.\n\n

[Diddler]

Quote (Puschkin @ Nov. 26 2003,07:49)Vintage cards are an investment as a sideeffect. I dont mind paying 150 Euro on a Mox bexause I know I can get that money back at any time. I do not buy them for profit, though, but I am much more comfortable with them than I am with Type II cards. Those are like your PC, they have an expiration date and you can see your money flushing down the toilet while they are getting older. Vintage cards, otoh, are like wines that get riper. And once in a while one of them is dicovered to be very tatsy like Bazaars right now.

Anyway, if I am in serious need for money, I can cash in my collection. Without being able to do this, I would not be able to maintain this wonderful hobby.

These are very good points.  I must add that some people make a profit with Magic cards and some people do not.

My story:

About two years ago I bought the following and just finished selling them on eBay.  My buying price is first, sold for price is second.

Mox Sapphire: $125, $210
Mox Emerald: $100, $200
Mox Jet: $95, $195
Mox Pearl: $85, $220
Mox Ruby: $90, $200
Ancestral Recall: $195, $350
Beta Timetwister: $125, $190

Mana Drain x4:  $80, $160 (I set the Buy It Now lower than I could have...)
Moat (It): $25, $35
Abyss (It): $23, $38
.
.
.

Dual Lands: Made some money, not a huge amount though...

I've illustrated a real story of someone that made a profit.  You have to make smart buys, and good sales.

[BrokenDeck]

Everyone here keeps saying that you just have to not buy on e-bay.  Can anyone suggest a site that sells power for less than e-bay prices? I have been unable to find one, and would greatly appreciate it if someone could give me the address of such a site.

[mtgmooner]

This has got to be the fourth or fifth forum now across the big magic websites that I have posted in with regards to the T1 argument.  

I know players look at their cards as an investment, I do myself...quite frankly, youd be stupid to not be aware of the market value of your collection even if it is just so that you have a good knowledge for trading, but with regards to the environment, the "investment" vs. "game" argument doesnt have the slihgtest bit of weight.

It is clear and accepted that having POWER in your deck statistically increases your chances of winning/of drawing a broken hand/doing broken shit, etc. , but I MUST keep insisting that just because a player has POWER in his deck, that does not automatically, 100% gurantee that player a win in every game/matchup/sideboard situation they will run into.  I hate hearing about players saying "oh, dont get me wrong budget decks are good, but they just cant do well in a tournament, especially where power is prevalent".  That forces me to digress into another argument I have been trying to make, in that, a budget deck in the hands of a skilled player has just as good a chance at beating a powered player as anyone else.  There are over THREE TRILLION unique draw combinations for any given deck at the beginning of a game, which of course has permutations to account for parising and other variables, which gives more than a solid ground to make the argument that a powered deck isnt going to draw a ridculous hand that often.  It also suggests that a powered deck that parises may seem an average hand, but nothing devastating against a skilled player.  

Furthermore, I think is a vast misconception that the value associated with a card has a direct relationship to the playability of said card.  A common argument is that "power keeps up daily, that MUST mean or imply that power cards are getting better and better in the Vintage environment".  This thought process couldnt be further from reality.  A great example could be the Juzam Djinn...sure it had its hay-day, it was a decent card in void way back in the day, but has superceded by new printings of cards...such as the Nantuko Shade.  However, the value of the Juzam still seems to sit in the ballpark of $150.  

What the point I am trying to make by that last line of thinking is that, looking at an environment FOR A GAME and trying to denote a direct monetary value relationship between the two is silly.  December 1st comes along, and the DCI makes some changes to its B/R list...deck archetypes that dominated or made Vintage fun to play for some players can be crippled.  And just like that, the monetary value of the card falls.  It doesnt make the card less playable, but the value falls nonetheless.  Of course there are exceptions, I mean certain cards only are good when they synergize with another, but for the most part, I think the argument is apt.

Vintage is 100% a game.  There is NOTHING wrong with the Vintage format in terms of availability or price in cards.  The DCI KNOWS what they are doing (putting my neck out on that one), and the environment will continue to adapt through B/R changes as it ALWAYS has.  The game goes on, and some people will inevitably have boughten hi, and sold low.  But thats the way the cookie crumbles...

[BrokenDeck]

Quote The DCI KNOWS what they are doing

They absolutely do not.  But I don't want to get into an argument about this, i'll save it for the right thread.

You said that a budget deck can do well in a tournament where power is prevalent.  I think where this argument about whether or not budget is able to do well at a tournament boils down to what the definition of "doing well" means.  If you go into a 16 person tourney where first place gets a mox, second place gets a mana drain or something, guess what.  If half the field is budget, I would say 3rd and/or 4th would be taken by budget decks.  Once in a while the drain may be won by a budget deck even.  But there is no way that a budget deck will be able to blow by all 8 powered decks to get that mox.  And in my opinion, a deck does not do well at a tournament unless it gets the top place as often as the other decks there.

[Gilberry]

I love vintage and you can't really play vintage without power. As several people already said: You just won't do well.

Now is power an investment? Let's do some math:

A mox 3 years ago: around $100
A mox now: around $240

An Unlimited Black Lotus 3 years ago: around $380
An Unlimited Black Lotus now: around $650

Even if you subtract the projected short term loss, due to the Euro/$ exchange rate that is a 180% return on any investment.
Plus tournament prizes and:

The fun of playing magic: priceless.

[defector]

As far as the value goes, power cards are like any collector piece, as time passes the value should increase.  We are vulnerable in that our game seems rather generational, and if not picked up by our kids, the power we play with will begin appraoching zero in value.  If people quit playing magic in 75 years, and power becomes null in value, so be it for me and my friends as we chew oatmeal in the nursing home, or the worms chew us.  In the meantime, they are expensive cards and will continue to be expensive cards.  I am a vintage player for a numbe rof reasons, the collectibility of the cards being the last factor.  The largest factor is that I get to play with more cards, power is cool, I own two, but force of will and mana drain and dual lands are cooler.  I play in one tournament a month at most and lose, oh well.  In the hundreds of casual play games in between, mainly group games, I've found demonic tutor a more devastating card than mox jet when in a chaos game of 3-6 players.  I'm going to play with my demonic tutor for as long as I play, my one allowed copy per deck.  My freinds and I recently decidided that any card worth more than a hundred dollars would simply be faked by photoshop and printed for casual play, we made our own power for our own play.  The value of those cards is zero, but the playability is the same.  Magic is a multifaceted enterprise, I play by my own rules with my own friends, I advocate others to do the same.  I don't know if this constructively adds to the conversation or not, just my angle.

[skycreatoR]

Nobody said Nasdaq would go down, other then a few guys who now have more money then they possibly could use.

The fool say the prices will keep going up.

[dandan]

Quote (Milton @ Nov. 26 2003,14:21)

Quote In order for there to be a healthy Type I format in 10 years' time, there need to be reprints or proxies. I would sacrifice the value of my power cards for either of those.

Most car owners are in favour of roads.

To be honest the more widespread availability of Type I power would increase the number of people wanting 'real' cards and could possibly increase prices of Alpha and Beta cards. I would guess that A/B/U Icys have increased in value lately. (they declined in value, not due to the ugly IA card but due to being obsolete).

You are taking a whole bunch of factors and using them to justify reprints.  The arguments you make are not good.

First, the value of T1 cards (P9, Drains, Workshops, etc...) is based on the very rare aspect of these cards.  There are only so many Lotuses, the demand is high and a shortage is created.  If demand continues to grow, as it has, while the supply remains the same, as it will, then prices increase.  In fact, every day there are fewer and fewer Black Lotuses of high quality.  Supply is diminishing.  Some get damaged, some get destroyed, some get beat-up through play.  So, 10 years from now there may very well be only a few PS10, pack mint Lotuses available.  To expect these cards to sell for anything less than a premium price is insane.

Reprinting cards would crush the prices of these cards.  This can be seen in the basic argument for reprinting cards: reprints will make more cards available, thereby decreasing prices so everyone can compete.  Anyone who thinks that they can reprint cards and not see a decrease in price is ignorant.  In fact, the basic argument proves that cards will lose value, otherwise why reprint?  

Begin rant: Well, I don't want everyone to play my format.  I like the fact that there is a high price of entry into the format.  For the most part Type 1 is like an elite brotherhood of good, considerate players.  I like that.  You ever been to a pro-tour qualifier?  It sucks.  Sniveling, whining, cheating, stalling bastards is what they are, the whole lot of 'em.  I like our brotherhood.  End rant:

Milton - you are both right and wrong. Clearly the law of supply and demand apply to Magic cards. Prices are rising due to increased demand and lower supply. With no reprints, supply will continue to fall, suggesting that all other things being equal, prices will continue to rise.

The only problem is, that all other things are not equal. The increased demand has been generated by the globalisation of Magic and as you rightly point out, by the good work that some of the members of this community have put in to promote the Type I format. Do you think that demand will continue indefinitely? Do you think that it is possible that some players will lose interest in a format that has become too expensive for them to compete in? Magic is a fad. Luckily it is a fad that has shown more staying power than most and Type I is easily the most durable of formats in Magic. Your entire argument centres around things continuing as they are now, a premise that would get you killed at the first set of traffic lights you come to.  I expect prices to continue to rise in the short to medium term given nothing drastic like a reprint/proxy ruling. But will anyone pay good money for these cards in 50 years? Maybe, maybe not.

You then apply the aforementioned law of supply and demand in the case of reprints. More supply + same demand = lower prices. Correct.
However, think about what is in more supply. New format, possibly white bordered, new art reprints. You will be able to get those cheaply, well, at least the packs cheaply, I expect power versions to have a value well above the cost of a standard rare (see CE cards for example). Will there be any more Betas, Alphas, UL cards? Nope. Constant supply there. So we have a greater supply of some cards and a constant supply of others. Again think of CE cards.
What about demand? Is it reasonable to expect an increase in demand? Would you buy packs that might contain a Power card? I laugh at any attempt to deny an increase in demand.
How about demand for the 'elite', the originals? Is it reasonable to expect some of the influx of new players (assumption - players playing with their cards) to want to pimp their decks? Is it possible that this increase could outweigh the number of players who, at present, buy Power cards but would not buy them, chosing their lesser cousins instead? I don't know.
So where are we?

More supply (some cards) + Constant/decreasing supply (existing cards) + More demand (total) = ?

I dont know.

The prices of the original cards could go up or down or stay the same (I personally would forecast a small initial decrease folowed by a similar growth to the current situation). Clearly the reprints would have a lower value than the originals but it is not unreasonable to expect that they could be similar to those of chase Type II cards (depends on the format of the reprint).

Ask yourself if it is possible that Type I could be a format where some people use Moxen that cost $300 and others use $20 Moxen.

Ask yourself if Type I is currently a format where some people use $300 Moxen and others use $0.01 Moxen (proxies)?

Regarding the basic argument that cards will love value, otherwise why reprint - I assume you don't post letters using Penny Black stamps. You use a cheaper functional alternative which no collector would look twice at.

I dislike being called ignorant for believing that there would be a difference between the prices of the original cards and the prices of the reprints. I don't claim to know what that difference would be.

Regarding the rant - considerate? Does that mean that 'considerate' players (like you) are happy to see this great format denied to the majority of players? You like it, I don't.

[Milton]

Quote You then apply the aforementioned law of supply and demand in the case of reprints. More supply + same demand = lower prices. Correct.
However, think about what is in more supply. New format, possibly white bordered, new art reprints. You will be able to get those cheaply, well, at least the packs cheaply, I expect power versions to have a value well above the cost of a standard rare (see CE cards for example). Will there be any more Betas, Alphas, UL cards? Nope. Constant supply there. So we have a greater supply of some cards and a constant supply of others. Again think of CE cards.
What about demand? Is it reasonable to expect an increase in demand? Would you buy packs that might contain a Power card? I laugh at any attempt to deny an increase in demand.
How about demand for the 'elite', the originals? Is it reasonable to expect some of the influx of new players (assumption - players playing with their cards) to want to pimp their decks? Is it possible that this increase could outweigh the number of players who, at present, buy Power cards but would not buy them, chosing their lesser cousins instead? I don't know.
So where are we?

More supply (some cards) + Constant/decreasing supply (existing cards) + More demand (total) = ?

I dont know.

I think what you are trying to do here is use supply side economics.  Does supply create its own demand?  Maybe.  Probabally not in this case.  We are not talking about aggregate demand here, we are talking about demand for a speicfic niche product in a specific niche industry.

Look at what happened to Beenie Babies.  The good people at Ty flooded the market, the shortages turned to surplusses, the demand dropped and the collectable value quickly diminished.  The same thing happened to the comic book industry in the 1990's.

It also happened in Magic a few years ago.  Chronicles killed the secondary market for a little while.  Also, what was a beta Icy Manipulator worth before it was reprinted in Ice Age?  Now, I understand that playability has something to do with this also.  Is Icy a playable card?  Not really.  It hasn't been for a while.  But reprinting playable, valuable cards will kill the value of existing cards.

Look at how many people want "beat power".  They want the most affordable version of the playable card, so they are looking for extremely played cards that can be put in sleves and used.  What happens to the value of these extremely played cards if you can buy a pack and get a shiny new (perhaps foil) version for the cost of a pack?  What happens to the store that is selling singles and suddenly can't sell these singles for the prices they paid for them?  How much money do they need to lose on singles?

I basically refuse to believe reprints are a good idea because I don't see thousands of people saying "damn, I wish I could join a T1 tournament, but I can't because I don't have the cards".  Instead I see people starting with budget decks (suicide or sligh), building a base of cards from which they can trade or buy bigger cards and eventually becoming fully powered.  

And, no, I don't see too many people losing interest in a format that is too expensive for them.  The past four years have shown us that the format has gotten increasingly expensive, yet also increasingly inexpensive.  The cost of power has gone up, but the power of the budget decks has gone up considerably.  Remember Ankh Sligh?  Very competitive even up until Gen Con 2003.  A deck like that draws people into the environment.  Budget decks have gotten more and more deadly, there are more and more hate cards and the field has diversified from a Keeper dominated format to one in which any number of good decks can compete.  Type 1 has thrived through it all.  Tournaments are very well attended, innovation is everywhere.  People are playing.  It's not broken.  Why try to fix it?

If we do see a situation in which tournament attendance drops significantly, there is little innovation and interest, then I will back re-prints as a last ditch effort to stimulate interest.  

And, to finish, I would like to share this:

Crazy Con Results:
2nd Sam Larsen, Floofy Bunny.dec

4 Deed
1 Balance
4 Swords to Plowshares
4 Naturalize
4 Duress
1 Maze of Ith

1 Demonic Tutor
1 Regrowth
1 Sylvan Library

4 Call of the Herd
2 Ravenous Baloth
4 River Boa

4 Mishra’s Factory
4 Treetop Village
1 Bloodstained Mire
3 Windswept Heath
2 Bayou
2 Scrubland
2 Savannah
1 Swamp
2 Forest
5 Strips
1 Black Lotus
2 Mox (Jet, Pearl)

Sideboard

2 Sacred Ground
2 COP: Red
2 Maze of Ith
2 Engineered Plague
2 Serenity
2 Seal of Cleansing
2 Tormond’s Crypt

You really don't need the Lotus and Moxes in this deck.

How can a deck like Sam's do so well in a format with five or six Keeper decks, multiple Dragon and Hulk decks, Welder MUD, Phid?  Well, it's well put-together, it has many, many threats and it is a good call for a specific metagame.