with the new restrictions, all my budget lists on
here are going to need to be tweaked. so i want to discuss what changes the other decks are going to have to make now.
here are my predictions...
a.) with long gone, blood moon is fast enough for vintage again as it hurts both dragon and workshop (the current kings of vintage now) if it comes into play early enough.
b.) chalice officially gets the boot from most hate decks to be replaced by null rod? pity, i used to love the card, now I hate it as it's less playable in budget but still squeezes out a bunch of random budget decks.
c.) fish is better than ever mainly because madness is now dead as well, but also because it can afford to replace some long hate (maybe misdirection, stifles etc) with graveyard hate (against workshop and dragon).
d.) chalice black isn't as viable anymore since neither dragon, nor workshop were great matches for it, and those two decks are going to see a lot more play. but then again, it wasn't that great against long either, so i don't know. but i do know it'll evolve into bloody black and be stronger than ever with four bloodmoon on the side and enough disruption to see to it that bloodmoon hits play before the opponent has a smokestax out.
e.) not sure how keeper and parfait are affected by this. keeper may also be hurt for the same reason as chalice black and from the loss of burning wish (many versions loved that card). but parfait might be a different story. and i'm almost certian hulk is a lot better now.
f.) gobbo combo is more viable now since it's main weaknesses were that it could at the earliest combo out on turn two but had no disruption to stop a turn one, or turn two long combo.
g.) rector trix and tendrils is back baby with long now long gone and the metagame a little bit slower. but it will have to make up for the loss of burning wish.
Many decks are definately more viable with long now gone. But now more than ever, Workshop variants, Dragon, and to a lesser degree Mask based combo decks will make up a large part of the meta any where where people actually own power and play competitively. And these decks are so synergetic that the only way in which other decks can have a chance with them is by packing their sideboards with the appropriate hate. Thus the only decks that are even remotely viable in a competitive environment are those that pack said hate. This isn't a problem regarding Dragon and Mask as essentially every color has easy to cast cards that significantly hurt both decks. But while Mishra's Workshop unduly shuts out a lot of strategies that just don't have the brokenness to race the locks, through no fault of their own, there really isn't any way to effectively hate it out without a blue or red splash.
Until wizards decides to print artifact hate cards for all the colors or decides to restrict the permenant version of black lotus, the only viable noncombo decks are those that splash a significant amount of either blue or red. While this may not seem apparent, anyone who has played against a good workshop deck can attest to incredible amounts of mana the deck can generate in the first few turns, the raw synegetic power of the cards to be able to totally shut you out by turn two, or the futility of trying to trade with the key cards one for one.
Trading for land one for one with cards such as Wasteland or Sinkhole rarely works as there are far too many mana accelerators to be dealt with effectively, and by the time the mana denial can actually hit play, Workshop variants often had already had the key turn one or two needed to lock you out. Trading one for one with threats or by utilizing discard is often just as futile as no deck could match it's hate with the number of threats found in the deck. Current artifact based artifact hosers such as Null Rod and Chalice of the Void deal with far too few threats, and almost always deal with them too late and very poorly at that. Graveyard hard proves just as difficult as the graveyard is typically only a very minor component of the combo. The original MUD builds did very well and never once bothered to utilize their graveyards.
Even after combining all these forms of hate to make up a third of the main deck and almost all of the sideboard, the incredible challenge that decks like Chalice Black face against workshop based decks proves unconditionally just how futile the above measures are. Currently, the only cards with which workshop variants can truly be crippled and hated out are cards that can deal with multiple key artifact threats at once. These consist of Energy Flux, Artifact Mutation, and Rack and Ruin. Hurkyll's Recall and Blood Moon are also effective provided you only need to stall them temporarily. These and only these cards deal with enough threats at once to have any chance to make up for the raw synergy and power found in Workshop variants. And considering that all five cards require a red or blue splash, it becomes quite apparent why so many decks and archetypes are made unplayable by the unresticted presence of Workshop variants. And it also becomes apparent why workshop decks consistently manage to take 4 or 5 slots on almost every top 8 list even while being such a new deck, even with long around and with workshops being so rare. Four copies of a permanent black lotus is afterall no small advantage.
So if the DCI remains firm on it's refusal to restrict Mishra's Workshop, Wizards should at the very least ensure that cheap and effective artifact hate is made accessible to all the colors in the next set whether in the form of individual cards or with more effective artifact based artifact hosers. Afterall, it's not just vintage that's being deformed by artifact decks, extended suffers from the same problem and I predict standard will soon as well.
i still don't get why they took out one broken tempo breaker (lion's eye) but left the even stronger one (workshop). and i also don't see why they hurt dragon last time when it was weaker, but chose to left it alone when it stronger than ever now and downright evil in 1.5. i'm not convinced chrome mox or burning wish needed to be on the list, they really wouldn't see that much play in the current environment. i also didn't want spoils on the list since i though dragon, the only deck that i think can really abuse the card to destroy 1.5 was going to get neutered. but now, i'm not so sure.
what metagame shifts do you think i missed?
