[Article] The Five Axis Metagame

[Smmenen]

This is one of my most important (and best articles), I think.  If you were sick of my Long pieces, please give this a try - just click the link.  If you don't like it, fine, but see what you think.  Plus there are Purty Diagrams (thanks to Kevin Cron):

http://www.starcitygames.com/php/news/expandnews.php?Article=6811

This article is my detailed exposition on the metagame - the result of testing, tournaments, and thought - and I've pulled the strings apart and unraveled the mystery.  I hope you enjoy!

Stephen Menendian

[PandaPokemon]

From a view purely based on enjoyment, your articles are unique and nice to read (at the end of a long day).  Will you be doing more of those matchup articles? I like the step by step analysis you do for those.

[slighguy]

i think this is a great article and shows how contraversal the meta is for the time being and why tog is the optimal deck to play now.I also like the five axis matchup analysis whick is helpful.

This is a great article and i hope to read more like it.

[Smash]

p0wns was a nice touch

[Smmenen]

I also posted my most recent Tog list at the end of hte article.  Let me know your thoughts on that too.

Steve

[Dr. Sylvan]

Steve, this was an amazing read. I'm still trying to think if there's an article I've ever enjoyed the first read of more.

[jazzykat]

1. Cool article.

2. I am really scared of running only 22 land. I play an strip and island md in place of the deeps and use the 4 th duress instead of a shaman. Can you tell me honestly that you don't get land screwed from the 5 strip decks?

3.  You never really mentioned landstill (not directly any way), does it do well vs. tog as I am thinking of taking a break from cookie monster(going UR) or is it just a tier 2 budget deck?

4. I guess you aren't worried about combo except dragon because the lack of stifles in the board leaves you pretty vunerable.

[eddavatar]

Just one thing (my whole argument's on starcity)....is aggro-control really that great against Prisons? I've always think that it's the other way around.

[JuJu]

Very nice article Stephen, I agree with you when you say it's your best yet. It's like you wrote a primer for the metagame. Very Good Job. I have a few arguments that I shared with you on IRC earlier, and most of them were answered. A few things that I'd like to ask are these. What version of Slaver do you deem the best for your Metagame Axis? The Control Slaver with no Workshops? Or the more Comboish one with the Workshops? I haven't tried the Control version, but the way you explain Tog in your article makes me think that the Control version is better. Of course this is no simple answer, but it is one that needs answering. Thank You in advance if you get around to answering my question. Once Again, Very nice job on the Article. Best Yet  

[Clown of Tresserhorn]

I really enjoyed reading the article steve...I do love your psychatog deck, but had some questions about it.

1) why no mystical? do you feel that the scroll does a better job fetching cards? I found myself tutoring for a late game will most of the time, and a scroll won't do. Plus, in those odd situations, you can always mystical for a demonic to find a tog.

2) I still don't know how you pull off playing tog with 22 mana sources. I know it's been beaten to death, but I feel it needs to be addressed. With 22 mana sources, I find myself Parising WAY too often. Even playing against keeper, keepeing a 1 land 1 mox hand is risky, as they can strip and play a shaman, leaving you SOL. My current build runs 24 mana sources; I'm ok with cutting a lonely strip mine (as it hasn't proven useful yet), but 22 seems sketchy. As a side note, I've began hating mana crypt more and more. I play vs. heavily aggressive decks, and playing an early crypt with no tog is risky as all hell.

3) Is shaman necessary? You went and said that you needed to have it as an answer for chalice for three, but honestly, how often has that happened? a workshop player needs a workshop, a lotus, and a chalice to be able to chalice for three...and even then, you may have a force, and if you don't (and played first), chances are you'll have a brainstorm and be able to dig up some answer. Even if they do resolve a chalice at three, it's kind of a lost cause. If you hadn't seen the shaman by that time, chances are, they've won...as not only have they screwed over your removal and win condition, but they've essentially screwed over your main draw (intuition) and your comeback card (will). I feel that tog just has enough answers to a chalice for three. You may make the case that vs. control and powered decks, its a house, but I would rather cast tog and just win.

Anyways Steve, GREAT article.

-Bob

P.S. About the march tourney...is it still ok if I stay at your crib for a night or two? I'll PM you about details late this week or early next week.

[winnie]

Nice article as usual.

What do you think about slaver-control. Where does it place in the current meta ?

winnie

[Mon, Goblin Chief]

Great Article! I agree with just about everything you said, although I still like B2B because of its power vs the Bazaar-decks and 4+Color control-decks (an additional minor thing being my decklist, which is incorrect by 1 MD Cunning Wish, Merchant Scroll and Gush ).

As for your decklist, I, like the others, don't think 22 mana is enough. I'm much more comfortable with 24 like my updated build (since Sunday) or jps.

Aside from that, I still don't like Gush MD (just good for Aggro, in my experience) and have learned to love Pernicious Deed enough to run at least two in the SB.
Gorilla Shaman is just a great card, and I'd at least try it out if I were running red. I can't give a more qualified comment on him, as I personally haven't played 4-color Tog.

[BreathWeapon]

I've played against Tog with 22 sources numerous times with wMUD and I haven't managed to take advantage of the Mana Light builds to prove it is a significant weakness. So long as your willing to Paris for 2 Lands you should be fine. I chalk the desire to play 24 sources up to Control Player Paranoia.

JuJu, i'm sure Steve was alluding to Workshop Slaver in his article.

Steve, i'd like to know a little more about Aggro-Combo's role in the environment than what you presented in your article. Mask and FCG don't deserve to be blown of soo easily, IMO, considering the relative cost and effectiveness of such decks in 5 proxie tournaments is incredibly strong. While its obvious that financial restraints played no part in your evaluation of the metagame, it does in mine ... and i'd like to know just how well you think these decks will stand up in "The Pefect Metagame."

-Great Work

[Nehptis]

@Smmenen

Great article.  Just curious, lets say that GenCon and the general T1 scene turns to all Tog.  What would you restrict to neuter the deck?

Re-restricting Berserk won't cut it due to the CWs.  Is the answer, put the first creature on the T1 list and restrict Tog?

[kirdape3]

24 mana means you don't autolose to a single Wasteland.  Otherwise there's nothing wrong with 22 - you have more spells that way with which to influence events.

[kirdape3]

In order to break Tog, you have to cut off it's ability to draw cards.  The mana accelerants are all restricted, restricting Force of Will or Mana Drain would let combo just overrun the place, and Tog in and of itself is not absurd - drawing cards is.

If something would be restricted, my first guess is Intuition.

[wonkey_donkey]

First things first, fantastic article Steve.

I do have a few of issues in mind that could probably do with raising, although this is me being a critic rather than a reader.

1) Rock-Paper-Scissors analogy: how has the old metagame evolved to become the new, apart from the evolution of archtypes? How have these influenced the deck of choice in any given metagame, apart from making metagame understanding that bt more important?

2) Metagaming: Can metagaming alone cause a shift from any of these axes? Where do metagame decks fit in, or does this invariably depend on the deck? How do metagames differ without tog as a dominant force?

3) Control and Aggro-Control: Has the printing and overpowering presence of tog made other control stategies obsolete? Or has it simply fuzzied some of the more clear-cut lines on your axes? I'm aware that you talk about other control decks being worse at their job against tog, but is that enough to render them nothing more than metagame decks alone?
You seem to focus on Gro decks rather than strategies such as Fish, or Gay/r. Could you elaborate on performances of Tog against these decks?

The number of questions raised is me being unfairly critical - like I said, I found it an excellent article to read, and it was a very good appraisal of the situation as we know it. I hope my excessive pickinesss will help. I think points 2 and 3 are the most important though, especially the last point of 2. I do have some of the answers to my own questions, although I'd be interested to see if you agree with me.

Thanks again,

Tom

[Hi-Val]

Nice article! You put succinctly what I had been pondering for the past few months.

Tog seems to roll over to Fish-style decks, at least in my experience. They have uncounterable threats, Null Rod and 5 Ancestrals, as well as 6-9 strip effects. Though their counters are weaker, usually they can slow the game enough. Gay/R can bring in a lot of REBs as well.

[TheFram]

@kirdApe3
Restricting Intuition will do very little to Tog. I have played, and am currently playing, single Intuition builds to much success. The simplest solution is to use a scepter instead of the second intuition to supplement draw, or one could just run more tutors (merchant, mystical, so on).

[Jacob Orlove]

If Tog dominates the metagame, then people will get better at beating it, because all the tog decks will have to metagame for the mirror, and not for other strategies. That gives decks like TnT, Fish, Keeper, etc., the opening they need to take tog down.

[Ric_Flair]

Excellent article Steve.  It wanders into metagame clock territory in places, but all in all it is better than just about anything I have seen insofar as a general metagame picture is concerned.  

Here are some of my questions:

1) Some of the decks that have done well in Europe and other places seem to be missed in your analysis.  For example, Madness is on the chart, but in reality I think this is the best of the aggro decks out there right now.  It has won multiple major tournaments.  TnT is always going to be a favorite deck.  Stompy is another popular choice, but the costs of Madness (all the power and 4 bazaars) along with its lower than it should be profile seem to push it out of the discussion.  You never seem to mention it.  In your look forward Mask and TnT were listed, but in reality I think that Madness is as good if not better than these two decks, especially Mask.  Everyone has pet decks, you seem to be the only person that thinks Mask is as good as it is, but I think you have slighted Madness more than it should be.  I will, however, assume that you did this on purpose.  You put tons of time in, so such a glaring admission, especially in light of recent performances by the deck, is probably on purpose.

2)  You mention this a number of times, but do not clearly spell out what you mean.  What is it that makes Tog so flexible?  I think I know, but I am not sure.  Furthermore, I am sure some of your readers don't know either.

3) Where is Control Slavery and regular Slavery on the chart?  This is a major archetype and I think that it should have been included.

4)  What is the reason for the surprisingly diverse metagame?  I think it has to do with the lack of uniform metagame and the availability of card.  I, for one, think that Scepter control or Phid is not in the same league as many of the decks you listed.  It is certainly no better than Vengeur Masks.  Is the diversity because we are "letting" substandard decks exist in the metagame by not playing the best decks?  This not a criticism or a comment on the article, but just a thought I had after reading what you wrote.

5)  Theoretically speaking how different are EBA and GAT?  I have played both and I can honestly say that I think that EBA is at least as controlling as Phid is, while GAT can stray into combo/aggro mode easily.  

Overally, great article.  Add it to the classics.  But some of the details seems a bit fuzzy.  I am sure this is because of the generalization you mentioned or because of purposely omitted data.  Would you mind clearing a few of these issues up?  Thanks.

[Smmenen]

1. Cool article.

2. I am really scared of running only 22 land. I play an strip and island md in place of the deeps and use the 4 th duress instead of a shaman. Can you tell me honestly that you don't get land screwed from the 5 strip decks?

3.  You never really mentioned landstill (not directly any way), does it do well vs. tog as I am thinking of taking a break from cookie monster(going UR) or is it just a tier 2 budget deck?

4. I guess you aren't worried about combo except dragon because the lack of stifles in the board leaves you pretty vunerable.

22 Land: I think the addition of Mana Crypt has significantly sped up the deck and compensated for the land issue.  Gush also helps the land issue - very often you randomly Gush in response to Wasteland.  I think the it just isn't an issue.

If you look at MANY decks from the past: Chapin Gro, GAT, and many, many other decks, 22 mana sources ia ALOT.  Chapin gro had 9 lands and 4 Land Grants (would be fetchlands) with moxen.  GroAtog - even four color, only had 19 mana sources and played Tog without problem alot.  Granted those decks had more cantrips, but they didn't have Mana Crypt either.  If you think it is a problem, then run a 23rd land.  

Stifle?  My three Coffin Purges are amazing versus Rector and Dragon and are just as good unless they use Xantid Swarm on you.

Re: Landstill.  All control decks have the fundamental flaw that I tried to make clear: they don't have Tog and therefore don't have a tremendous advantage against Aggro strategies that Tog will always have.

Just one thing (my whole argument's on starcity)....is aggro-control really that great against Prisons? I've always think that it's the other way around.

I concluded (I thought) with the opposite conclusion.  As a theoretical matter, they are antithetical.  The reason they lose is becuase instead of stopping the prison deck like Control tries to do, they spend a portion of their deck on permanents, which Prison is equipped to deal with.

Re: Slavery:
I think the Workshop build is superior.  It uses Workshops like Lotuses becuase it has just enough juicy artifacts.   It also can abuse Chalice much more powerfully.  

Re: Mystical:
I simply do not like this card.  It isn't bad, in fact, on the paragons list, I was the first to add it into the Tog deck replacing the 3rd Cunning wish simply because, back then, I generally wanted another way to find Yawg Will.  My view on that has changed.  I think its too slow and just generally unneeded. Even to find Mind Twist.

Re: Gorilla Shaman.  
This guy is insane.  I advocate him even if you have Zero wastelands.  The reason is first, he randomly wins games against STax/mud, but also, second, it will give you a huge bump up in the Slavery matchup, which is an unfavorable matchup.  Chalice for 3 is not autoscoop if you have a Shaman.

Re: People saying I was dismissing Aggro and Aggro-Control.
First, my testing has indicated that Trinisphere AND Tog signals a smothering of these decks.  I realized at the Waterbury, that Tog was actually the winner - not Dryads not EBA despite the finals.  What happened was that people played very controlish - not realizing that Tog beats them if played from a certain angle.  Trinisphere is the final straw.  Play Trinisphere against Madness - its totally insane.  That doesn't mean these aggro and aggro-control decks are dead.  Far from it.  If you are playing in a 5 proxy tournament, they are probably one of hte best deck choices you could possibly consider.

Implicit, if not totally explicit, was that I assume Trinisphere is very present.  Tog does everyone Aggro Controll can try to do but more successfully against Combo and Prison, but also has stronger matchups against Mask, TnT, and other aggro decks.  So the answer is Trinisphere.  You guys don't see it yet becuase you probably haven't seen much Trinisphere around - even in the European tournaments.  But you can bet your booties at Gencon, Trinisphere will PWN.

Re: EBA v. Gro
The only difference really is the presence of Psychatog in one deck and none in the other.  Otherwise, I beleive that EBA might actually be the superior deck.  Exalted Angel is devastatingly underrated in this format.  

Why diversity in the format?  Becuase peopel haven't played Tog correctly: as a control deck against Control and Aggro control, and as a combo deck against Aggro.  

Re: inherent flexibility of Tog:
I mentioned this explicitly, but look at the decklist.  Beyond the core 11-12 draw spells and Intuitions and Togs, the deck is essentially whatever you want it to be.  You can have Wastelands, or you don't have to.  You can have Duress, or you don't have to.  You can run whatever you bloody want - it is the ultimate flexible deck with the ultimate win condition that wrecks both Prison and Aggro strategies and becuase its win condition is bigger and badder than anything the other deck proposes.  And if Tog resolves and is not answered immediately by prison, gg.  Also the natural synergy with Cunning Wish is beyond ridiculous.

Re: More Metagame Stuff.

Reading my article, its probably not hard to extrapolate what I feel are the best decks in type one at the moment.  Permit me to discuss tiers.  

Tier One:
Slavery, Tog, Trinistax, Draw7

Tier Two:
This is the remaining cream of the Type One crop - right behind the big four:
Dragon, Keeper, Welder Mud, Maddragon, TnT, GAT, Madness builds and possibly Fish and EBA.  Possibly Rector as well.  

These are the decks I think serious people consider for tournaments.  As a caveat I should say that I think very good players can win with other decks, but I would not consider them to be the best deck these players can be playing.

[MarkPharaoh]

I really enjoyed this article Steve, it's amazing on how you write such great pieces of work again and again, I just have one SMALL nitpick:

With a deck like this, you avoid the Tog mirrors, but you also strike upon one of the strangest developments in Vintage in quite some time - a hybrid that has never been seen before: Combo-Control-Prison.

Wasn't GAT a Combo-Control-Prison deck?

[Smmenen]

No, it was an Aggro-Combo-Control deck.

Gro is Aggro Control, but the addition of Fastbond+4Gush+ Yawgmoth's Will meant that it could combo out reliably by turn 4 or so undisrupted.

[MarkPharaoh]

Wow, I need to pay attention, for some reason I was thinking Aggro-Combo-Control when I saw that statement, my mistake.

[jpmeyer]

If Tog dominates the metagame, then people will get better at beating it, because all the tog decks will have to metagame for the mirror, and not for other strategies. That gives decks like TnT, Fish, Keeper, etc., the opening they need to take tog down.

I think Tog right now is like how mono-blue and Keeper were back in 2001 before the introduction of U/R Stacker.  Those two decks really were way above anything else out there in terms of power, so they just didn't even have to bother with other cards to deal with other decks.  You had mono-blue that couldn't kill creatures or Keeper that only ran Diabolic Edict as creature removal.

Who cares about Suicide when they Duress you turn 1 and see Mana Leak, Mana Drain, and Misdirection?  They just can't do anything about that.  Also, Morphling worked a lot like Tog there where they could just cast Mana Drain into Morphling and win.  That card would just invalidate whole decks.  I think it's really the same thing right now with Tog.

If something needs to get restricted, I am very certain that the correct card to hit is Mana Drain.  It really is what makes Tog work.

[jazzykat]

I hate the talk of restricting cards. I do not honestly think you can restrict mana drain without restricting Mishra's Workshop. Furthermore without drain I think you just about invalidate blue based control as an archetype. Without the raw power of drain, workshop players can play their big spells without fear of the massive tempo swing that drain produces.

I hope what you said was an observation and not a suggestion as I couldn't think of T1 as anything but brown without drain.

EDIT: I just wanted to say that I am not attacking you JP, my tone is more of concern than anything.

[jpmeyer]

Oh, I completely agree with you.  Restricting Drain causes all sorts of crazy crap to happen.  It's just that it seems like it's really the best card to take out Tog with.

[Eastman]

Nothing about Tog warrants restriction right now.


I've spoken with you on mIRC Steve, but I just want to reiterate here: I really like the article. In the early stages of any subject's analysis such works are crucial in laying the tracks for further discussion. I believe that the most gain can be made by dissecting and critiquing your analysis.

I haven't time to get too involved now, but I will say my first and probably largest criticism is the exclusion of any 'combo-control' category, which I believe would more appropriately describe Hulk and Slaver, as well as a few other decks.

[Nehptis]

Just to clarify my previous comment about restriction, it is purely hypothetical.  I agree with the majority that nothing warrants a restriction right now.  I'm just asking for some thoughts on WHAT IF Tog were to overrun the environment?  What are the card(s) that should be restricted?