[Article] Tough Nuts: A Balanced Type One Metagame?

[Smmenen]

http://www.starcitygames.com/php/news/expandnews.php?Article=7215

This article is my ambitious attempt to analyze every good deck in Type One.  This covers A-F.  Next week will cover G-R, and after that, the rest.  

I hope you enjoy it becuase I worked really hard on this.  

Steve

[Dxfiler]

The article was very nice but it has a clear bias in how one of the deck commentaries was presented:

 Control/Drain Slaver
by Richard Shay
1st place, 2004-03-21 Newington
1 Platinum Angel
1 Pentavus
4 Goblin Welder
3 Fire / Ice
4 Mana Drain
4 Force of Will
2 Cunning Wish
4 Thirst for Knowledge
3 Brainstorm
1 Ancestral Recall
1 Memory Jar
1 Demonic Tutor
1 Time Walk
1 Tinker
1 Yawgmoth's Will
2 Mindslaver
1 Black Lotus
1 Mana Crypt
1 Mana Vault
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Mox Emerald
1 Mox Ruby
1 Mox Pearl
1 Mox Jet
1 Sol Ring
1 Library of Alexandria
2 Underground Sea
4 Flooded Strand
4 Volcanic Island
6 Island

Sideboard
1 Echoing Truth
1 Shattering Pulse
1 Fire/Ice
1 Fact or Fiction
2 Blood Moon
4 Rack and Ruin
2 Blue Elemental Blast
3 Red Elemental Blast

Background:
This deck first appeared at the Dulmen, and after the restrictions of December and a brief moment of uncertainty in January, this deck has quickly become one of the most popular and successful decks in the format - partly in response to the theoretical predominance of Tog and its success as a foil to Workshop Slaver.

A list I consider much closer to optimal simply because it seems better suited to deal with real metagame threats than the more experimental and earlier list of Rich's is what Jason Stinnett played at a recent Columbus tournament:

Jason Stinnett
2nd Place
Columbus, April, 2004
Draw:
4 Thirst for Knowledge
4 Brainstorm
1 Fact or Fiction
1 Ancestral Recall
1 Memory Jar

Combo:
4 Goblin Welder
3 Mindslaver
2 Pentavus

2 Gorilla Shaman
4 Mana Drain
4 Force of Will
1 Demonic Tutor
1 Time Walk
1 Tinker
1 Yawgmoth's Will
1 Black Lotus
1 Mana Crypt
1 Mana Vault
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Mox Emerald
1 Mox Ruby
1 Mox Pearl
1 Mox Jet
1 Sol Ring
1 Library of Alexandria
2 Underground Sea
4 Flooded Strand
4 Volcanic Island
5 Island
1 Tolarian Academy

Sideboard
2 Blood Moon
1 Duplicant
4 Flametongue Kavu
2 Gorilla Shaman
1 Platinum Angel
2 Rack and Ruin
3 Red Elemental Blast

How is this guy's list so much "more closer to optimal" than Rich's list?  What real metagame threats do you speak of?  How much more vague could you possibly be in recommending Stinnett's second place list in a local columbus tourney over Rich's 1st place finish in a 150 person tourney?  Let's get down to brass and tacks, this guy's version is virtually identical to Rich's with the exception of a few things:  
Stinnett doesn't run any fire/ice or cunning wish, instead opting for a fact or fiction, 1 more brainstorm and 2 gorilla shaman.  Having tested against control slaver far more than most people (I'm Rich's whipping boy ), I feel that some of these changes are actually good ideas.  The addition of the fact or fiction and the fourth brainstorm are things that could work in a control slaver... actually wait, they did work.  In the same tourney that Rich won, you know, that small 150 person one that was run so well :-p, ELD made top for with these exact changes.  ELD has  advocated these changes in this very forum.  Mr. Stinnett's deck is fine, but to call Rich's list "experimental" when he's worked on it for months upon months is just plain false.  To also say that Rich's list is much earlier than Stinnett's is too false, since ELD ran practically the same list as Stinnett but an entire month earlier in the exact same tourney in which you cite Rich's deck.  To cite Stinnett's list over ELD's also seems wrong.  

I'm doing minor nitpicks, but really... would it be too much to just credit the right people with the right things instead of morphing it to somehow relate to you or friends you know?

- Dxfiler

[Matt]

All Goblins look the same in the eyes of Smemnarch!


 It's true.  The goblin thing has been fixed.  

-Smemnarch
[/b]

[jpmeyer]

You said "nuts."

[jdl]

You said "nuts."

http://www.themanadrain.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=16246

Grasshopper, when you take this stone from my hand you will know technology. -jpmeyer

JP rides the "special" short school bus in between introducing multiple archetypes to Type One. We'll let this one slide, methinks. -Dr. Sylvan

[Smmenen]

The article was very nice but it has a clear bias in how one of the deck commentaries was presented:


I'm doing minor nitpicks, but really... would it be too much to just credit the right people with the right things instead of morphing it to somehow relate to you or friends you know?

- Dxfiler

I thought it was clear about who invented the deck - the Germans in the Dec. Dulmen?  Isnt' that where credit goes?

Steve

[Dr. Sylvan]

I was impressed, though I was also reminded that I need to send Pete an update on the DTB database. Maybe after finals (which clearly hasn't stopped you). :)

I'm particularly curious about your perspective on Dragon: I see it as a cyclical deck that can win through mild but not major hate, so its success will oscillate up and down as players tighten and loosen their defenses against it. Given the success by the illest of dawgs (and two other T8ing Dragon players) at November Waterbury in a control metagame, how much of this "oscillation" should we expect, and how much of the early victories should be attributed to opponents not understanding how to win?

[skecreatoR]

Very good article. The viewpoints presented inside are both precise and accurate, I do miss various opinions in where to actually play the different deck. Not that it matters the most, it would just be nice to get some info on where you believe the deck is playable.

Besides, I think the fact that you said 'The Clock' would lose against Tog hold very little truth. I extensively tested against 'Teh_Clock', and I extensively lost a whole bunch of games. The problem against 'Die_GeClocken' is the resiliency the deck in its current form have. A Force of Will won't stop the deck, as it run way to many threads to be outcountered, kinda like Darg0n before the hate arrived, it would simply outplay the opponent by resolving animate spell after animate spell, until the opponents counterbase was exhausted, and I believe this is the case too with 't3h_col0k'.

But nonetheless, beautiful article and beautiful work, it will be great to have all parts up.

[dicemanx]

This is shaping up to be a good series. Good job Steve.

I am not as convinced as you or Bryan Finch that going back to the roots is the way to go with Dragon, although I totally agree with the assessment of Compulsion. Bryan's build has been successful recently because Dragon hate has waned - the strength of this deck is directly proportional to how unprepared the field is for it, moreso than any other deck. Still, there is a greater prevalence of instant speed hate compared to the danger that non-basic hate can pose. Blood Moon is played by very few decks these days, because it just doesn't get the job done very effectively anymore. Even the two cited Control Slaver decks have just 2 Moons in the SB, and the only other top-level deck I can think of that would run Moons is FCG. This means that it's probably best to leave the green splash in Dragon, rather than play around a seldom-seen SB card. And it's not just the Xantids that green provides - it's also the Deeds, which are very effective in fighting much of the permanent-based hate such as Ground Seal, Crypts, and Damping Matrix, not to mention their ability to wreck the opponent's game plan if it involves numerous permanents.

The importance of FoW in Dragon is up for debate as well in my opinion - I'm still on the fence about this card. Dragon is the fastest deck around that doesn't suffer from inconsistencies (like the faster Belcher or draw7 decks), so it usually benefits more from proactive disruption. Xantids are much better, for example, versus decks like Keeper, Fish, Landstill, Hulk, and Control Slaver. While many other decks might rely on FoW to stop the opponent's game breaking play, Dragon usually has an alternate response in mind - winning outright. It would usually rather use Xantids to ensure victory rather than worry about what the opponent is doing. That's my pro-Xantid spiel, but like I said, I'm still on the fence because there are obvious strengths to running FoWs as well.

Bottom line is: Dragon is such a flexible deck and the number of possible builds or individual card choices is pretty staggering, so it's almost impossible to accurately discern how effective it is in today's meta or what the best builds are for that matter. It's a deck that I believe always has a chance to win every single tournament it enters as long as it's built to handle the field that you'd expect, EVEN if that field consists of decks that load up on hate. Maxing out the hate cards does not guarantee success against Dragon by any stretch, despite what many people think.

[Jhaggs]

Steve,

  These are fantastic article.  They are really great reference tools to be used for everyone in the format, espically those that are trying to hone their skills by playing testing against a standardized meta.  This may go beyond the scope of your article, but I was hoping that you could comment at the end of your series on where you see deck developed headed.  Do you expect more innovation to continue within our current card pool?  What has been the major cataylst that lead to all these decks?  Is it the  DCI, the increased format attention, or simply its just Mirrodin & Darksteel?

[eddavatar]

Smmenen: Great read.

Just wondering, which GAT list are you going to post? I hope you'll post both the original AK version and the TFK/DA version, as I believe we GAT players have yet to settle on which one is superior.

[Smmenen]

I was impressed, though I was also reminded that I need to send Pete an update on the DTB database. Maybe after finals (which clearly hasn't stopped you).

I wrote this over two weeks ago - so this was finished some time ago.   However, part 2 is only half done and i'm not going to touch it until this weekend.

I'm particularly curious about your perspective on Dragon: I see it as a cyclical deck that can win through mild but not major hate, so its success will oscillate up and down as players tighten and loosen their defenses against it. Given the success by the illest of dawgs (and two other T8ing Dragon players) at November Waterbury in a control metagame, how much of this "oscillation" should we expect, and how much of the early victories should be attributed to opponents not understanding how to win?

Interesting - I think its success, like most decks, depends on the strength of the player.  I really really like my "back to roots" Dragon deck and I'll post it when I get a free moment.

[Smmenen]

Very good article. The viewpoints presented inside are both precise and accurate, I do miss various opinions in where to actually play the different deck. Not that it matters the most, it would just be nice to get some info on where you believe the deck is playable.

Besides, I think the fact that you said 'The Clock' would lose against Tog hold very little truth. I extensively tested against 'Teh_Clock', and I extensively lost a whole bunch of games. The problem against 'Die_GeClocken' is the resiliency the deck in its current form have. A Force of Will won't stop the deck, as it run way to many threads to be outcountered, kinda like Darg0n before the hate arrived, it would simply outplay the opponent by resolving animate spell after animate spell, until the opponents counterbase was exhausted, and I believe this is the case too with 't3h_col0k'.

But nonetheless, beautiful article and beautiful work, it will be great to have all parts up.

Here is the deal.  I did alot of testing against Tog - in fact, after this series is over, I'm going a one-shot article "Matchup Series: Belcher v. Tog" to demonstrate my games.

However, I think the way Belcher loses, and I'll get into this later - is not FoW, not Mana Drain, not even Duress.  It's once again, Cunning Wish.  If the Tog player wishes up R&R and or Artifact Mutation they can win.  Or alternatively, if they Force the Belcher and then Fire the Welder, they can win.  Shaman is also very good.  Let's reserve that discussion for that article (three weeks from now )

Eddie: I'm posting both GAT lists.

Peter: My dragon has more blue spells than his - but I love his basic count.  It's so good.

Steve

[defector]

Excellent article Steve, I can't wait to see what you have to  say about workshop slavery.  I like the dragon list, that was where my friend and I started, we ended in a different place mainly through the limitations imposed by our collection, but believe me every list ran 3 Compulsion.  I'll post it sometime in the budget forum.  Keep up the good work.
defector

[chosen_one]

Wow! I'm really looking forward to the next part. This article is almost as good as a Rakso piece.

[Apollyon]

You know how to beat Belcher? Trinistax. It's the one good matchup that Trinistax does have. Nothing like a turn 1 Trini to turn your opponents god hand into a hand full of Parts of Ramos.

[Prism]

This article is almost as good as a Rakso piece.

is that supposed to be an insult?

[Smmenen]

You know how to beat Belcher? Trinistax. It's the one good matchup that Trinistax does have. Nothing like a turn 1 Trini to turn your opponents god hand into a hand full of Parts of Ramos.

That is so easy to discover that it suggests conspicuousness or little need for perspicacity in the observer.  And you know how to beat Trinistax?  Play Workshop slavery.  Nothing like countering thier only good prison part and then using their welders to take there turns while you have 2 active Gilded Lotuses.

@Peter - I was thinking about opening up a thread to talk about Dragon. Woudl you like to do the honers?  Otherwise it'll have to wait until next week.

God I hate to think that my articles are dead.  Are people reading?  I really appreciate Diceman's feedback.  I had alot of positive feedback after the Tog. v. TnT matchup article, but for some reason I never got the sense that it was widely popular.  Any suggestions?

What I want to accomplish with this series is very ambitious.  I'll try to ramp up the analysis next week.  I want to get into details about deck weaknesses and strengths - I'm trying not to just assert something, I'm trying to explain it.

Steve

[Machinus]

This series looks to be really excellent, MUCH better than apprentice logs of outdated keeper matchups.

[skecreatoR]

Smmemen - I loved the Matchup article(s?) you did, I always enjoy seeing good players playing decks, they usually have a edge few people have, of course therefore they are the players they are.

If they should be done in any way, situational analyzis is in my opinion the most important part. Whenever an array of choices show, every option should be covered with thoughts and possible outcomes, plus of course advantages. That is what, in my opinion, really improve the matchup for the players. To understand whether a Accumulated Knowledge for 1 or a brainstorm is the correct EOT play.

Step-by-step is, on the other hand, also very note dependant, and it might just take too long to do such a thing. It also depends on the article you want to write, whether it is a "Tog Encyclopedia" or 'normal' analyzis.

Me myself have also thought about doing some matchup articles with the full step-by-step discussion included. It just very quickly ends up in both extensive reading and writing, you easily use a page to discuss a simple choice. As we both seem quite interested in making such articles you could drop a Pm or note, I would happily discuss it, it is always interesting to hear different peoples opinion, since there is so many different approaches to analyzing the matches.

But please, PLEASE do the match-up articles, they are great a read for any player.

[Apollyon]

Smmenen, you see what I said?

It's the one good matchup that Trinistax does have.

Next time that I play my Stax deck, I'm going to be playing Gilded Lotuses as well. They seem to be pretty good.

[dicemanx]

@Peter - I was thinking about opening up a thread to talk about Dragon. Woudl you like to do the honers? Otherwise it'll have to wait until next week.

I'd do it, although I'm not sure if I would have anything original to contribute at this time. Dragon hasn't changed much over the past 5 months or so - I think the primer still holds up pretty well except that there are now new match-ups to consider (Slaver, FCG, O.Stompy), and there are some new card choices (Caller of the Claw, Scrivener + Cunning Wish combo). Nevertheless, it might be a good idea if we got a discussion going again in the open forum to see what other people have to contribute. I'll put something up by next week to get things started.

[Mon, Goblin Chief]

@Smmenen: Great read so far. I'll say more when I've read the whole series .

@Belcher vs Stax:  The matchup is simply 50%. It all depends on the die-roll. Trinisphere after Belchers turn 1 sucks usually. Going first it all comes down to Stax not being able to mulligan into 3Sphere or 2 lockparts turn 1 vs Belcher crapping out.

[Ultima]

Steve,

This was a great read and excellant work.  It was well-enjoyed and your work will not go unappreciated.




John

[BreathWeapon]

@Peter - I was thinking about opening up a thread to talk about Dragon. Woudl you like to do the honers? Otherwise it'll have to wait until next week.

I'd do it, although I'm not sure if I would have anything original to contribute at this time. Dragon hasn't changed much over the past 5 months or so - I think the primer still holds up pretty well except that there are now new match-ups to consider (Slaver, FCG, O.Stompy), and there are some new card choices (Caller of the Claw, Scrivener + Cunning Wish combo). Nevertheless, it might be a good idea if we got a discussion going again in the open forum to see what other people have to contribute. I'll put something up by next week to get things started.

One of the things I have considered changing about Dragon is the Draw Engine, I just don't think Squee is the optimal choice for this deck. Instead of Squee, why not just use 3xDeep Analysis? It has the same synergy with Bazaar of Baghdad and Compulsion, and with Intuition you have a Draw Engine that isn't reliant on board position. Plus, you increase your U count to 17 for FoW and get to use the 4th Duress. You can also hard cast DA in a Top Deck scenario, unlike Squee. Anyway, thats the only significant change to the deck I can think of.

Ya, its all Squee's falt

[dicemanx]

One of the things I have considered changing about Dragon is the Draw Engine, I just don't think Squee is the optimal choice for this deck. Instead of Squee, why not just use 3xDeep Analysis? It has the same synergy with Bazaar of Baghdad and Compulsion, and with Intuition you have a Draw Engine that isn't reliant on board position. Plus, you increase your U count to 17 for FoW and get to use the 4th Duress. You can also hard cast DA in a Top Deck scenario, unlike Squee. Anyway, thats the only significant change to the deck I can think of.

Squees only matter when you are slow-playing it against control. In those scenarios, abusing Squee with Bazaar or Compulsion is superior to getting a single shot out of DA, which might even get countered. Squees are extremely strong - I wouldn't consider cutting them at all.

[BreathWeapon]

I grant you Squee is awesome at what he does, but against Control Xantid Swarm is your "Slow Play." Besides, vs a Control deck with a fast clock like HULK, "Slow Play" meens combo out by turn 5 or die. I just look at DA as a way to stop the deck from burning out against Combo/Aggro-Control/Aggro and support FoW, which is simply un-reliable in Dragon as it stands.

I suggest you try it out, at the very least. I've never been partial to Squee myself, having played the B/g Spoils verions of this deck, and I just don't understand why you view him as such a "Sacred Cow." DA may not be as potent over the long haul, but it gets the job done in the Middle Game and pitches to FoW. DA is the more flexible Draw Engine, and that has to account for something.

[dicemanx]

I view Squee as a "sacred cow", because this card actually made Dragon competitive.

against Control Xantid Swarm is your "Slow Play."

Xantid is awesome vs control, but this is not a replacement for a powerful draw engine, which is sometimes necessary if you cannot force through an early Xantid.

DA merits consideration, and I do intend to take another look at it, but it might not be fair to compare it to Squee and say that you can only use one or the other. Both might have a spot in the deck, but Squees should always go in ahead of DAs as far as I know.

[BreathWeapon]

Eh, I just thought it was worthing throwing out there. I'm working under the assumption that the most important thing Dragon can do to make it a "stronger" deck is to secure FoW.

Is resolveing Swarm an issue? The only time I can't establish Swarm against Control is in the face of Plow. With 4 in the Deck and 8 Animates, pluse your more stable FoW count, can we not rely on Swarm vs Control and accept a "weaker" draw engine? Sounds like time to playtest ...

[bebe]

However, I think the way Belcher loses, and I'll get into this later - is not FoW, not Mana Drain, not even Duress. It's once again, Cunning Wish. If the Tog player wishes up R&R and or Artifact Mutation they can win. Or alternatively, if they Force the Belcher and then Fire the Welder, they can win.

Steve, I have a lot of respect for your testing as a rule. But I must say that I took Belcher to Vintage Championships and Cunning Wish is not usually that big of a problem. Simply put, it is too slow. Forcing a Land Grant is much more devasting to the deck. Mana Draining a key card can be crucial. Belcher goes off between turn one and three pretty regularly if not disrupted. But we will discuss this at a later date as you say. Maybe we I played against the wrong test group.