Mana Crypt - Making the right call

[ELD]

With mana crypt making a much larger impact as of late, the more skilled players find ways to call odds/evens with uncanny accuracy.  My question to the type 1 community, is what strategy do you use when faced with an opposing crypt.  Some people always call odd, some even.  Personally, I wait until my opponent rolls, then I use whatever the result was for the reroll and all future rolls as well.  This makes them roll one extra time, an expenditure of energy that could just be the differance later on.  It also gives me insight letting me know what the die prefers to land on.    

Does anyone actually flip a coin, and if an opponent tries to go with the coin, do you let them?

I really want the feed back from the players who call it right 6-7 times in a row.  The ability to deal lethal damage to an opponent with their cards w/o Mindslaver certainly merits discussion.

[jpmeyer]

To keep from causing unnecessary confusion, whenever there's a Crypt I just say "take damage on every heads/even."  I've never really noticed any sort of uncanny streakiness with the rolls/flips.

[Jacob Orlove]

Don't let your opponent use a coin or a ten-sided die. Either one can be manipulated to give better-than-even chances of a favored "side" (heads/tails; odds/evens) come up.

Generally, I find that changing the side I pick every two or three flips/rolls works best, both to keep them on their toes, and to prevent any kind of cheating.

And as anyone with some experience in statistics could tell you, there really won't be streaks over the long haul, and short-terms ones are unpredictable at best. I had one game where I was at 16, and I managed to not take damage 7 turns in a row, then take damage for 5 turns and finally draw my Karn for the win the turn before I'd have to risk a lethal flip. Weird stuff happens when it comes to random chance.

[jazzykat]

I prefer letting the opponent flip a coin and calling it in the air. If you call in the air it is damn near impossible for them to cheat, because even if its a two headed coin, if you call heads then you win automatically and call tails lose automatically :B, so it is still 50/50. And it only counts if it lands flat on the table you are playing on without any outside touching of it.

Although I do believe their is a slighty better chance of getting heads than tails, due to weight differences in different coins but in so few a trials I don't think it matters at all.

Honestly, don't worry about mana crypt. If it kills you then it kills you, it is best to be as broken as quickly as possible to avoid such things as dieing to the crypt. Besides a permanent free source of two colorless mana is so worth the random bolt, in decks that it is in.

[Razvan]

Just to add to what Jacob said, streaks are weird and rare. I have a casino simulation that calls red/black on roulette, and after about 10 billion games:

You bet X on black. If you win, go on to the next game. If you lose, double your bet. Repeat until you win. Then continue. This is a 100% sure-fire way to win at roulette, however, the house limit screws you.

Anyhow, in over 95% of the cases, streaks ended by 4 straight. The longest streak ever was 23. So something that Jacob experienced... is RARE.

Also, you can call after they throw or roll. This way, you will be fine. Or should be.

JP's technique would be fine, but there's always loaded dice and stuff, so that might be bad. And even loaded dice can be manipulated, so you can get even/even/odd/even/even/odd/even/even/even/odd with them...

[dmessiah]

Ugh.  I always try to use a die, myself.  At Waterbury I lost a game I should have won by losing 6 consecutive flips.  And it was my own quarter.  At some point I wanted to ask the guy to call tails just once.  I just don't trust coins.

I ended up losing because he welded my crypt back in EOT.  

[Ishi]

Anyhow, in over 95% of the cases, streaks ended by 4 straight.

The odds are 31-1 that you won't lose 5 in a row guessing red/even/heads (assuming a perfect wheel/die/coin...).  That's a 96.875% probability like you say so you're you have a great chance of making that one dollar or whatever you bet.  Of course, that one time out of 32 where it doesn't work out right, you've now lost 32 times your initial bet.  Crap...  You also have less than a 50% chance of guessing right because of the two green slots.  Double Crap...

It's not the house limits that screw you in a casino, it's the fact that the odds are against you.

Moral of the story: Don't try beat the house in roulette.

[Razvan]

Mana Crypt also makes sure that there are no green slots in it.

Sadly, a lot of times, you have to count on Crypt luck to win games. In Tog it's less important, because you can actually win, but in Workshop variants, stalling might still mean death... and stalling is what Workshops do.

[DavidHernandez]

The card explains what happens.  The controller of the Crypt will flip a COIN, and then the opponent will CALL IT IN THE AIR.  I think this is the best thing to do.

The Crypt controller can't decide in advance what to favor (heads vs. tails) because they have no idea what you are going to call.  Jacob's method of changing the call every once in a while will greatly decrease the chances of the Crypt controller "cheating".

dave.

[Toad]

European coins are not perfectly equilibrated. Hence, odds they fall on head or tail are not 50/50. It's kinda easy to "cheat" for Mana Crypt damage then.

[Jacob Orlove]

European coins are not perfectly equilibrated. Hence, odds they fall on head or tail are not 50/50. It's kinda easy to "cheat" for Mana Crypt damage then.

Don't let your opponent use a coin or a ten-sided die. Either one can be manipulated to give better-than-even chances of a favored "side" (heads/tails; odds/evens) come up.

[DavidHernandez]

Will a judge allow anything other than a coin (in a sanctioned tournament)?

you don't have to use a piece of money.  There are other coins.

Dave.

[Jacob Orlove]

Rolling a die with odds/evens instead of heads/tails is pretty standard.

[Razvan]

Incidentally, how do you manipulate the 10-sided die? Also, I am guessing the other dice (6, 12, 20) are fair, but how about the 4 and 8 as well?

[Jacob Orlove]

10-siders have all the odd numbers on one side, and all the evens on the other, which allows for even unintentional cheating.

I haven't seen anyone ever use 4 or 8 sided dice, but they suffer from the same problem. 10s, 6s, and 20s are the most commonly used dice, and of those, 6s and 20s are safe to use.

[Hi-Val]

I think we need a primer for flipping coins.

Also, in DCI floor rules, rolling a die is accepted as a form of randomization. Pick odd/even instead of high/low when you roll off, it's harder to load a die that way.

[Razvan]

Hm... How about those count-down dice? I am guessing those should still be okay... unless you want to decide who goes first...

Must learn how to manipulate dice!

[TheAdvantage]

With mana crypt making a much larger impact as of late, the more skilled players find ways to call odds/evens with uncanny accuracy.

Are you serious?  You are flipping a coin or rolling a die.  Without any outside influence(a loaded die, weighted coin, etc..) each flip is independent of the last, ie...even if the last 17 flips have been heads, the chance that the next flip will return Abe Lincoln looking up at you is still 50%  Prior flips/rolls have no influence on those flips/rolls yet to come.

Perhaps you mistakenly identify skill with uncanny luck?  After all, the people that are winning are going to be getting lucky and winning several crypt triggers in a row.  This is indeed a skill game, but getting lucky never hurts.

Perhaps we should reduce this thread to:  Bring your own coin/die so your opponent cant cheat.

I think we need a primer for flipping coins.

I WAS A MATH MAJOR.CAN1!1!!!!!11!1!!111!!1 OMG LOL I HELP???!? LOL

[ELD]

TheAdvantage wins the prize.  Of course I was not serious.  There is no strategy for coin flipping or die rolling.  It's random.  It's luck.  No skill.  I wonder if anyone read the original post.  Sorry for the joke, but I wanted to see just what would happen if I started a retarded thread.  It got more of a response than anything else I've ever posted which is pretty amusing.  Please, someone end the madness.  I really was hoping for some responses in the vain of "It doesn't matter what you call"

I was expecting a swift closing of the thread and a slap up-side the head.  I was actually thinking about doing a primer for coin flipping but that would have been a little too over the top, and there was no chance anyone could think I might be serious.  Forgive the experiment, I hope no one is too offended.

[cssamerican]

First let me say I am qualified to write the following primers because I have a B.S degree in Mathmatics and a minor in B.S.

Primer on Die Rolling
Load the die with magnets. The positive polls of the magnet facing out for odds, and the negative polls of the magnet facing out for evens. Then when you roll the die with your right hand, manipulate the dies outcome with a magnet under the table with your left hand. This way you can win everytime no matter what your opponent calls!

Primer on Coin Flipping
Purchase a two sided coin (Both sides being tails) because everyone usally calls heads because they think for some reason they got better odds of winning. Hence you will win a great number of coin flips. However, make sure you have a backup coin (Both sides being heads) just in case through scouting you notice there is some moron calling tails!

And yes, I am being sarcastic! But, if there is some skill to learning how to win coin flips or die rolls without cheating please disregard my bad attitude and let me know so I can go to Las Vegas and become a millionare!!!

[The Hamburgler]

TheAdvantage wins the prize.  Of course I was not serious.  There is no strategy for coin flipping or die rolling.  It's random.  It's luck.  No skill.  I wonder if anyone read the original post.  Sorry for the joke, but I wanted to see just what would happen if I started a retarded thread.  It got more of a response than anything else I've ever posted which is pretty amusing.  Please, someone end the madness.  I really was hoping for some responses in the vain of "It doesn't matter what you call"

I was expecting a swift closing of the thread and a slap up-side the head.  I was actually thinking about doing a primer for coin flipping but that would have been a little too over the top, and there was no chance anyone could think I might be serious.  Forgive the experiment, I hope no one is too offended.

ELDOwned. Seriously, I read the title and started thinking why people thought this aspect of the game seriously. Then I questioned my sexuality for reading about a topic everyone considered sincere that challenged absolute value of rate.   ELD's a tricky little firestarter .
- The Hamburgler

EDIT: Maybe the demand on Mana Crypt will really skyrocket hence we find a way to manipulate dice! *plots monopoly/ fake coins*





[/sarcasm]

[Smash]

The best player is to mindslaver them, and make them call heads on a loaded coin you flip. Mwaa haa.

[Apollyon]

Another way that I will sometimes do is roll a die and use high/low. That seems to work well, but I still have the taint of D&D games on my dice, so I tend to streak on high-low a lot. Dice were designed to have an even distribution of highs and lows.

PS (to Toad): Your weighted coins are why American money is used as an international currency. (Although the Euro is starting to become very popular as well)