Updating Draw7 6.15.04

[Windfall]

I have a bit of input for this deck now that I've tested it a bit.

First, I wouldn't go as far as to say Vampiric Tutor is terrible, but it is indeed one of the weakest cards in the deck, which goes a long ways in saying how broken this pile is.  Removing Vamp and Walk is a step in the right direction in making the deck better, since they are the two cards people like to see least and are often both sided out.  I am in complete agreement that Spiral is good, and Mox Diamond is good for the same reasons Chrome Mox is strong.

I think it might be a mistake to try and transform the deck into a beatdown deck against Artifact decks.  I think that the main idea is to combo and kill... and the deck should not stray from that.  Here is the difference between Xantid Swarm and Hidden Guerillas - Swarm allows the deck to do what it is supposed to do in the face of one of its enemies (Force of Will and other cheap countermagic).  Guerillas are a different story; they are trying to make the deck work against its greatest enemy (Null Rods, 3Spheres, Etc.) but do nothing to help the deck combo off in the face of that danger, which makes the rest of the deck somewhat terrible in that matchup.  It was not meant to play that way, and I think it might be a mistake to try and change the deck's behavior.

Rather, the Hurkyl's Recall plan is the way to go I think, though I think Chain of Vapor is very strong too.  The benefit that these two cards have is that they solve serious problems while at the same time being useful when there are no problem permanents to bounce.  They generate mana and storm, and the Guerillas will not do that.

Also, Chain of Vapor helps us get around Blood Moon, which is a problem for this deck, as it relies on its land for colored mana much more than it might seem.  Adding to the Enchantment problem, Chain of Vapor returns Root Maze, which gives even mono G aggro a chance to beat Draw 7.  It solves these two problems while at the same time offering protection from Artifacts that shut us down.  I think it's a mistake to cut Chain from the board.

Time Walk in the board is interesting.  While I don't quite understand why Steve put a Tendrils on SB, the Walk seems like a decent call just to have access to it in the tougher matchups where another turn may be all you need to win.  The problem is that I seem to enjoy adding Chains and Recalls, and Walk is a card that I may not find room for.  As a singleton, I'm not sure I can really rely on that enough to save me.  If one is not trying to go with the 5/3 beater plan, Walk's uses diminish even more.

Personally, I think Draw 7 players are forgetting about the combo matchups.  Do not be too arrogant that you are better than your opponent, or that your deck is stronger.  We all know that the control players don't have Force of Will every game, and neither do we.  I think that the optimal SB should have some kind of answer for the other combo decks, and it would be nice to have some tech for the mirror aside from playing first.  Sooner or later your one-sided coin or weighted die will get you disqualified =).

VS. Belcher combo you have Force of Will, which is a huge plus.  Depending on who's playing first, you may consider mulling into one.  I also think that Chain of Vapor would be good here, since Belcher may not be able to replay a Charbelcher since many of its mana sources are not reusable.

VS. Dragon you have Force of Will as well.  I think the good Dragon builds play with Force too, so it's kind of a double-edged sword.  Again, Chain of Vapor could be decent here too, as you can put the CIP ability of Dragon on the stack and then bounce him.  Assuming he does not have enough mana to float as well as an animate in hand, you'd be in a pretty good position to win on your next turn.

The mirror match is the most difficult and I think one of the most dangerous matchups.  You can't bring in serious hate because it will disrupt you too, and any instant answers like Stifle will clog your hand if you're winning, and might prevent you from going further.

One thing I am pretty set on is that it would be a mistake to bring in Swarms against any combo deck because it would be better to combo faster and win.  In fact, my best bet for the mirror is that my opponent does bring in Swarms, playing them and allowing me to combo him out the following turn.

Any thoughts on anything I've written here?  Let's keep this discussion ripe - this deck is amazing and I want to see good things happen for it, though I would hate for anything to get restricted because I love playing combo, especially the ones that run all the broken goodies of the format.

     ~Mark B.

[goober]

Upon further testing Channel hasn't earned the spot.  I tried taking out a few things for it and it never worked.

Fastbond definitly is a great addition to the deck.  When you go through all your draw7s you will see a lot of useless lands, and this makes them useful.  It casts like 1 or 2 mana after each draw7, which is definitly great.  You wil almost never fizzle after you cast a draw7, because you will get about 2 mana of any color off it.

Time Walk ruins your storm count, and isn't worth it.  Drawing and casting it as you fizzle might seem nice, but if you are running FB in its you can usually cast it then go off with that.

My sideboard is 4 Hurkyl's, 4 Chain of Vapor, 3 Brain Freeze (awesome in the mirror), 4 Xantid

The Chains are good if you see any non-artifact hosers, evern though they are not run yet.  I became a huge fan of them back in Long, and stil am.  They can help you go off, and stop Meddling Mage, Blood Moon, Ivory Mask (I lost a match to Plains Lotus that at the round 2.5), and Arcane Lab.  They aren't seen much but if this rises inpopularity things like that might be seen more often.  I figure the Hurkyl's are a better sideboard strategy against artifacts, because a 5/3 is very weak compared to Trike, Sundering, Memnarch, Enforcer, (insert creature they run).  If they drop a Trinisphere early enough to stop you then they will be bringing in the fat soon enough.  Against Null Rod decks, often you will just need to Chain them then go off.  I like Chain vs Null Rod.dec and Hurkyl's vs Trinisphere types.

[carlossb]

There is also a slight chance that we are using the wrong win condition.  The blue storm spell may be superior.

3 Brain Freeze (awesome in the mirror)

It seems you both are refering to the same card, Brain Freeze.

To be able to deck an opponent, the storm count is 17 (!) if you want to win in the first turn (as you cast multiple draw-7 that reshuffle your opponent graveyard into his deck), if you cast a single Brain Freeze.
Playing 9 spells and then cast Tendrils ({B})seems easier than playing 17 and cast the Freeze ().
It seems difficult to cast 2 Freeze if there´s only 2 maindeck, as you probably will remove one from the game with the DR. Also, you can´t play a Freeze and then play a Draw-7, because only 3/9 don´t shuffle the graveyard into his library, so you´ll have to play one and then Brainstorm/Ancestral/Bargain into the other...

[goober]

17 is harder than 9, but not by that much.  Often you will find that you are casting 20+ spells before you even consider winning.  I side in 3 against the mirror, taking out the Spiral.  My plan is to let them go off, then kill them in resp to a brainstorm, draw spell, or Bargin activation.  Generally you won't need to dig for the other.  It is nice to be able to just win versus your opponent.  while they are going off, which is un-FoWable.

[BreathWeapon]

I get the Minni-Fastbond argument, but it just doesn't accelerate out Draw 7's on turn 1 with any reliability. The odds of having 2 Land and Mox Diamond is slim, and it reduces your chances of playing a Diminishing Returns on turn 2 after a FoW. Plus, it's completely useless when Fastbond is on the board.

[JDawg13]

@Goober:  Is the mirror matchup so prevalent that you need to take up three whole slots for it?  Granted, I agree that 17 spells really isn't that much harder than 9, but it seems like we should either replace the Tendrils with them, or just not use them at all.  The combo mirror doesn't seem to take place all that often, so I don't think they belong in the board.

[goober]

I am testing it with Tormod's Crypt over the Brain Freeze, because it also works against Welders, Dragon, anything with Will, and Tog.  My sideboard isn't all that tight so I figured I would like to help a matchup I can do no better than 50/50 in.  All my bad matchups are accounted for and this deck can't bring in more than 4 cards, and that is stretching it.  The Crypt is nice because doing it in response to a Diminishing, when their Graveyard is decently big can be very very annoying.  Makes their deck's land percentage jump up, which is great for fizzling, unless they have FB out.

[carlossb]

Well, I was wrong about the Brain Freeze, it´s not a problem to cast one and then cast a draw-7 that shuffles your opponent graveyard into his library:
You have to reach the 17 storm number to win, isn´t it?

But when you cast the first one at, say 7 spells, you have 8 Freeze copies.
So the TOTAL spell count is now 16.
Then you cast a draw-7, or a Brainstorm, or Ancestral (to draw a second Freeze), so you have the magical number of 17

So, reaching 17 is so much easy by casting 2 Brain Freeze. Because of the 2-spells necesary to win, and the remove from the game part of the DR, it´s necesary to have 3 Brain Freeze main deck.

Now, the Casting cost/color of each kill condition are:

 {B} vs {U}
The BB is more easy with the Dark Rituals, and you are using the UU to cast the DR. The blue helps you to cast the FOW, but at the cost of not casting another DR if you don´t want to remove from the game the rest of them.
Sometimes the UU are necesary to cast the Mind's Desire.

EDIT: Shame on me because of my slip with the rules. I hope other people at least learns it by reading this.
I´m very sorry about it

[Jacob Orlove]

But when you cast the first one at, say 7 spells, you have 8 Freeze copies.
So the TOTAL spell count is now 16.
Then you cast a draw-7, or a Brainstorm, or Ancestral (to draw a second Freeze), so you have the magical number of 17

That's NOT how storm works. Storm counts spells played that turn, but storm copies are NOT played, they're put on the stack. It's a crucial difference, and it means your example just doesn't work.

[Jebus]

But when you cast the first one at, say 7 spells, you have 8 Freeze copies.
So the TOTAL spell count is now 16.
Then you cast a draw-7, or a Brainstorm, or Ancestral (to draw a second Freeze), so you have the magical number of 17

Errr...

Storm counts the number of spells played, not the number of spells put on the stack.

Storm copies are merely put on the stack, so they do not up your storm count.

[combo_dude]

Storm counts spells PLAYED, not put onto the stack.

"EDIT: Like three people beat me to the points I'm making. I'd like to extend a hearty "fuck you all" to those people."

How appropriate.

[Driven]

Time Spiral is the weakest of the draw7s by far, but it is actually better than Returns on turn three and later - unless you have Academy, and is really nice to Desire into. While I don't particularly like Spiral, and it is the most cuttable card, it's probably stronger than Walk or Vamp as it is genuine business.

So what is your opinoin of my new changes? If you don't like Time Spiral, what should replace it?

Time Spiral wasn't played in Long because it didn't draw enough and untap enough lands to be worth the mana invested - which is why Frantic Search was in many builds, because it was invariably free (you didn't have to spend artifact mana to cast it)...
...You are paying six mana, a few of which may be recouped, to get the same benefit as one of the 3 or 4 cc draw sevens - and it takes a heck of a lot more card expenditure to get to 6 mana than it does to get to 3 or 4. The only time it really shines is with Academy in play - but is that consistent enough?

After goldfishing/playtesting this deck quite a bit, I'm sold on everything except for the Time Spiral.  Even the people who have included it seem to be using it as a "Good card", but waiting for something better - totally fine if it works for them, but I'd prefer a consistent cantrip over the inconsistent-yet-bigger.  I took out the Spiral and replaced it with the good 'ol Frantic Search.  Why?

- When going off, you usually don't have more than 3/4 lands unless Fastbond is in play.  Hence, Tolarian Academy has just as much fun with this card as with Time Spiral, and anything more usually isn't needed.

- An opening hand or second hand Frantic Search has won me games   much more often than a Time Spiral.  3cc is definitely doable, and with the 6cc of Spiral I would strongly prefer two Draw-7s, Frantic Search + Draw-7, Bargain, Desire, or numerous other things that just have a higher cantrip rate.

- In my testing, Time Spiral was great with Fastbond in play or off a Desire, but wasn't played much of the other time.  Other choices were just too tempting, and highly favorable over the TS.

So, though Frantic Search is no Draw-7, it often resolves (people don't usually counter it, waiting for the Draw-7's or win-now cards), hence netting you back at least part of your mana, digs, and only has a 3cc.  

Perhaps I have to playtest a bit more, but so far, Frantic Search > Time Spiral by far.  Please try this out, and let me know how you guys are feeling about it;)  

Thanks for the input - I'm glad that we're getting such feedback on this deck!  

~ Alden ~

[JDawg13]

Alden,

I think the problem with running Frantic Search in place of Time Spiral is that you're replacing a must counter with a card that should help draw you into a must counter.  Draw7's threat density must be kept at an absolute maximum in order to maintain it's gameplan of draw7 after draw7.  Frantic Search, while a good spell, simply isn't a pure business spell as Time Spiral is, so I really don't believe you can replace the Spiral with the Search.  Additionally, Time Spiral is infinitely better to Desire into (as you yourself admitted) and is much better should you end up in topdeck mode, needing to draw and play a business spell ASAP.

[skecreatoR]

@Goober:  Is the mirror matchup so prevalent that you need to take up three whole slots for it?  Granted, I agree that 17 spells really isn't that much harder than 9, but it seems like we should either replace the Tendrils with them, or just not use them at all.  The combo mirror doesn't seem to take place all that often, so I don't think they belong in the board.

I think a lot of you misses the point of the awesomeness Brain Freeze brings into the COMBO mirror, solely the fact that even if you don't win, the opponent will not be able to do so. Quite often, actually you end with what I would call a "maximized hand", a hand that simply hold 1-2 key spells, fow backup, land drop, brainstorm, something else. This is not an opening hand, this is lategame where you have played 5-15 spells, but not enough to win with Tendrils of Agony or Brainfreeze, mainly because of mana problems. If you are a good player, these situations will not happen often, but in the combo mirror you might end up in one of these, as you will not encounter control(1-3 key spells in the beginning gets countered, then you resolve and win), but because you need to race them to the win in max. 3 turns, you sometimes will use/be exposed to less optimal hands (before/after mulligan) that can carry you far, but no far enough.

This will happen, trust me, and I don't think it is because of playing the deck poorly, it is just an attempt to overrun the other combo player (being the beatdown, if you like.). In that situation, to return to the roots, Brain Freeze is bloody golden.

Lets say, You mull to six and your hand does not get amazing, but acceptable, with draw 7 + handy acceleration. Opponent does not mulligan and there is 53 cards left in his deck, of course, you start.

Turn 1, Play land, go.

Turn 2, Play land, go.

Turn 3, Play land, mox, mox, Draw7(Returns, because it required 4 mana... bastards.), resolve, continue to create 6-14 spells, for example.

This is easily how the mirror could go. You try to push your mana base to the max to win, to race the opponent for the golden10. But, due to the sub-optimal hand you chose to keep, you can only play a Brain Freeze for lets say 11. 33 cards "going down the drain", and you probably played a lof of different stuff, and if you are a smart player, you avoid to use Returns if possible. If you made him dump 14 cards into his yard, he now have (52 - (14+33) =) 5 cards left in his library, and he can't possibly win. He can't play returns, he can twist, but that means he have to be holding the twist or drawing it, quite unlikely to happen. If you in this situation have the "maximized hand", you will be able to simply win next turn by either emptying his library or agonize him down to a bare 0.

This is the same with Charbelcher, you minimize his chances of winning by emptying his library for threats, and you can the win the following turn. Everything is a Time Walk, and emptying a library, but only nearly, is absolutely a Time Walk, and for reference, I have done this some times and I found out that the mirror surprisingly often can go like this. That is why Brain Freeze belongs, it might be situational, but it gives the edge against the other combo decks (-darg0n) and the deck generally can't rely to much on sideboarding strategies, the Guerrilla/Gibbon plan is not always the key to victory.

[Driven]

JDawg13 - please understand that the following is merely a collection of my own experiences in playtesting, and I am in no way trying to tell you that Time Spiral is bad; I'm simply offering my opinion.

Alden,

I think the problem with running Frantic Search in place of Time Spiral is that you're replacing a must counter with a card that should help draw you into a must counter. Draw7's threat density must be kept at an absolute maximum in order to maintain it's gameplan of draw7 after draw7. Frantic Search, while a good spell, simply isn't a pure business spell as Time Spiral is, so I really don't believe you can replace the Spiral with the Search. Additionally, Time Spiral is infinitely better to Desire into (as you yourself admitted) and is much better should you end up in topdeck mode, needing to draw and play a business spell ASAP.

I'll try to address each point you made;)

First off - Replacing a must counter with a card that hopes to draw a must counter.  True - but there are many, many instances in which a 6cc card is a "must counter" to any player, is perfect for Drains, and helps win the game - it doesn't win the game itself.  Frantic Search doesn't only draw for a "must counter", but can dig for anything you need.  Mana, Tutors, a Force, uping a storm count, and it uses only 3 mana if countered, usually 1 or none if it resolves.  

Maximum Threat Density of Draw7 - Must like a Brainstorm, Ancestral Recall, Dark Ritual, Crop Rotation or even ESG's, Frantic Search is there to lead into or be continuous acceleration with an inevitable 'pwnage' when you go off.  Like the cards listed in this pile, if they resolve, they usually all cost you 1, 0, or net you additional mana.  Except for the ESG's, they bounce you an additional storm.  And like the rest of the cards in this pile, they can all be used very quickly - Spiral cannot.  When I play Draw7, I want to sprint through the deck playing and drawing as much as possible, and a 3cc card that's going to better my hand, up my storm counter, and probably only cost me 1 or none to play is amazing.  Spiral = Greater threat at a greater cost - something that is definitely an option with the mana, but the greater cost I've found too great too often.  Brokenness + Spiral = boatloads of fun, but with the exception of Desire, Frantic Search is usually just as potent because you'll have drawn into a cheaper Draw7.

Keeping the buisness pure - Few decks have had complete synergy, and the closest things I have seen recently were Long and U/G/R Madness pre-LED's restriction.  With most other decks, you usually hit at least a couple cards that...well, at the time, you really don't want.  With Long/Madness, you could pretty much Mulligan once if you had to but always had a keepable hand with nearly everything ready to be played, discarded or Wished.  Draw7 and Belcher are now the closest because they're built to race, draw, and hit with such speed that the cards are forced to have synergy.  This brings us back to - keeping the buisness pure.

Frantic Search isn't a pure buisness spell because it doesn't allow you to say "cantrip" upon resolution, but neither do any mana sources, draw (excluding Draw-7), Forces, or Crop Rotation.  However, these spells find their place because they are buisness spells - just not auto-cantrips.  They moreso set up cantrips and allow them to happen with ease.  For reasons already explained, Frantic Search does this.  Time Spiral, though a cantrip, does not go off with ease usually, and doesn't usually untap more lands than a FS.  FS can search for FoW backup for a draw7, while Spiral would have to play a Draw7, get it countered, and play another Draw7 next turn.  I've just found that FS on many more occasions is the buisness I'd like to invest in, while Time Spiral gets left in the dust.

Teh Possibilities with Desire - Totally in Time Spiral's favor.  Hands down.  Possibly untap more lands (fun things with Fastbond), and Draws 7 instead of draw two, lose two.  Frantic Search is, as said before, "good" with Desire, but Time Spiral Owns.

Topdecking Mode - Honestly, Time Spiral is better than FS, but not by much.  Let's say you take a risky hand of a Draw-7, the mana to play it, and not much else - perhaps a Brainstorm.  I'd rather topdeck a FS at this point, with so little mana, than a Time Spiral that's just another dead card in my hand.  Later on, however, when mana is easily accesssible and begging to be ab(used), Time Spiral can swing for quite a lot more.  Topdecking preference = mana capacities, and obviously what your hand is looking like.  And as said before, a 6cc spell is tasty on a Drain when looking at Will, Wish, Scrying, Shaman w/artifacts on the board, Decree, Slaver, or numerous other things defining the meta.  

Please take into account that I'm not saying that people should definitely play Frantic Search OR not play Time Spiral, but that this so far has proven extremely fruitful in testing.  Please try it, at the very least.



@ skecreatoR - Brain Freeze does extremely well in a Belcher/TPS/Draw7 matchup, which I don't think JDawg13 is refuting.  It's based upon your meta.  If you run into a lot of combo, sure, run them.  However, many of us have a majority meta of control, and have to use those three additional sideboard slots to face whatever our meta will most likely be hitting.

~ Alden ~

[Windfall]

Brain Freeze is terrible in the mirror because it does not remove the cards from the game.  I once played against a deck that used Brain Freeze for its kill, and he cast one of them on my turn after I had played ten spells or so.  I dumped 30 cards into my graveyard and then proceeded to cast Yawgmoth's Will and win the game instantly, thanking my opponent afterward.  Even if I didn't have Will (which is the best card to have after a Brain Freeze), I could have just reshuffled everything with a draw 7 spell.

I think that if you are going to opt to "control" the enemy combo deck, Stifle would be better than Brain Freeze.  Stifle, despite being overrated in my opinion, is a decent answer to combo decks.  It could be useful against combo mirrors though because it can buy you a turn, which should be all you need to win in most cases.

[Marton]

Hmmm, I must be missing out something in this conversation. While I do like the idea of running brain freeze in the SB against the mirror, I just do not understand how is brain freeze any better than stifle? In every matchups that you guys have named in which brain freeze was a good SB card against, stifle seems like it would have done a better job.

[Smmenen]

Sidestepping the unresolved win condition debate for the moment, what about my analysis of the mana on my post on page four.  Doesn't 11 lands seem a little odd to anyone else except for the fact that it has worked.  I still can't figure out why.  

Additionally, the biggest problem I see with Spiral is that it costs 6.  There are times when you have just a few mana in play, and your only two cards in hand are Bargain and/or Desire of which you can play neither.  Doesn't adding another add to that undesirable scenario?  I imagine Future Sight is even more problematic for the same reason.  

It is arguable that a third Tendrils should be in that slot, but a Tendrils in your opening hand is akin to a forced Mulligan.  And if Wish were in that slot, what is worthwhile to Wish for from the board?  

BTW, if the win condition was Brain Freeze, which I'm not advocating, just speculating, Cunning Wish might be a superior win Condition than the actual card.

[yodoblec]

That is better, also you'll end up having answers to things and can get a Stifle of you'd like to.

[Nehptis]

Apologies if this has been mentioned already.  If so, please quote the answer.  I've been playing variants of ToA since Long (Long, Rector Tendrils, Draw 7) and have always had bad matchups against Hulk/Tog.  I was wondering what the SB choices are for Draw 7 vs Hulk and what the basic strategy is in this matchup?

[Mixing Mike]

Additionally, the biggest problem I see with Spiral is that it costs 6.  There are times when you have just a few mana in play, and your only two cards in hand are Bargain and/or Desire of which you can play neither.  Doesn't adding another add to that undesirable scenario?  I imagine Future Sight is even more problematic for the same reason.  

It is arguable that a third Tendrils should be in that slot, but a Tendrils in your opening hand is akin to a forced Mulligan.  And if Wish were in that slot, what is worthwhile to Wish for from the board?

So why not try out Frantic Search?  I've done a few (about 30) solo games, and I've wanted Time Spiral twice when I drew F. Search.  Untapping Academy 2-4 (average) times in one turn is pretty awesome stuff if you ask me, espically during your early part of your big turn when you just need that boost of 2 mana, and you've already used your Academy jsut to get 3 or so mana. The biggest thing is that it works very well with Necro/Bargian on the table, and it usually produces more mana than Spiral does by the end of the game.  The loss of 1 draw7 isn't very noticable IMO.

[Driven]

@ Windfall - I don't believe that the point of Brain Freeze in the Sideboard is for a new win condition, rather something to help.  At least I wouldn't switch the Tendrils for them, rather board in one or two.  If an opponent has played 15 spells, and then goes for a draw spell (Ancestral, Brainstorm, Wheel, Windfall, Jar, etc. as the 16th spell), and you follow it up with a Brain Freeze, they more than likely lose right there.  If they tried to run a cantrip turn one or two, failed, and hence have a deck of even a less size, it takes less spells.  They key to the kill is catching them EOT, when they play a draw spell, or (if you're lucky) to Ancestral them to death.  It actually works decently well vs. the mirror, and while Stifle can save you a turn, this can win you the game.

@ Marton - I don't believe Brain Freeze is generally a better card than Stifle, but in the mirror, I have little doubt that it is.  Again, Stifle can gain you a turn, possibly two - all you need to win.  But Brain Freeze can win it right there for you.  The only problem is if they go 9th spell, then Tendrils with a library full.  Luckily, with 4DR, Will, Desire, and of course the obvious large amounts of draw, this is rare.

@ Steve - 11 mana-lands is a bit odd, but if it works and isn't janky at all, I don't really want to touch it.  Besides, you're running 4 Rituals, 4 ESG's, Fastbond, and 13 mana producing artifacts, of which 10 have a 0cc.  As you said in your own words:

Therefore the most likely hand is: (. . .)
(. . .) 1 Land
1 Draw7
2 Artifact ESG accelerants “accelerating sources�
1 “Facilitating mana source� (half can be accelerating mana sources)
1 Brokenspell with a slight chance of seeing Tendrils
1 Brainstorm or FoW

Which is all you need for a draw7, Draw, or Brokenness.  11 lands, 13 artifacts, and 8 additional mana producers = 34 cards, over half of the deck.  Henceforth, though the land count itself is low, the additional cards more than make up for it.

As for the Spiral issue - I've made my case, and won't beat it more than I have to.  Though Wish can be fun, we've also discussed the fact that it can be a dead card.  The preference (IMO) is either speed and consistency in this one slot or Wishable room board Tendrils, Hull Breach, Balance, or numerous other spells.  The only time I've regretted not having Wish in the MD is against Slaver (Tinker VS Tendrils for the face off), but even then you have games 2 and 3 if you couldn't race beforehand.  A third Tendrils I believe is not needed - I have yet to remove both win conditions with a DR, though it is totally possible.

As for Cunning Wish - it could be, but I'd assume that you'd want to have more instants on the SB for spot removal. What would be possibilities to fit in?  At least a Platinum Angel or Meddilng Mage wouldn't equal and auto-loss.  A Wish, Chain of Vapor, or Hurkyl's Recall are needed Maindecked if you want removal obviously, but if opting for speed,  something else entirely.  Guess it's back to the good 'ol playtesting arena for the Wish...just now blue...

@ Nehptis - Sideboard really changes wish whomever is playing Draw7.  Even now we've been discussing it.  Xantid Swarms are a pretty solid choice against control, with Tormod's Crypt being a second (though somewhat poor) second choice.  Swarms are solid though - they're good in other matchups as well.

@ Mixing Mike - Glad you've been testing out with Frantic Search, and that you've been having good results.  Since when have I not been the only player in Rhode Island who plays combo?   And when/if you playtest against someone else, perhaps you can let us know how that goes?  Goldfishing FS should be better than Spiral anyways because, well...you're goldfishing, and a free spell > 6cc cantrip if you don't need to worry about counters.

BTW - How does FS produce more mana than Time Spiral the majority of the time by the end of the game?  Will?  Other than that, I totally agree - Frantic Search has proven well, and I haven't found losing a 6cc Draw7 that hard to deal with.  

~ Alden ~

[theorigamist]

Smmenen, if it helps explain the weird land count, think of it as 10 lands and Tolarian Academy.  The 10 lands give you the one land in your possibly mulliganed opening hand.  (This number plans for the aggressive mulligan so you'll get only the land you'll need.  In other words, the 10 land count plans for the first turn win.)  The reason Tolarian Academy is separate is because it only works with multiple artifacts.  I've found Academy comes out more often if you play a different land, do a bunch of stuff (including playing out tons of cheap artifacts), drop Fastbond, and then play the Tolarian Academy, rather than playing the Academy as your first land drop.  This is especially true on your first turn, when basically only a hand of Tolarian Academy, artifacts, and a draw 7 will make you play the Tolarian Academy first.

[Mon, Goblin Chief]

[/quote]Sidestepping the unresolved win condition debate for the moment, what about my analysis of the mana on my post on page four. Doesn't 11 lands seem a little odd to anyone else except for the fact that it has worked. I still can't figure out why. [/quote]
I haven't done an actual analysis of the mathematic stats behind this, but I think I have an educated guess about this:

a) Because Draw7 has a high need for the right colored mana, it is usually crucial to have AT LEAST one land in hand, anything else will almost always be a mulligan (Barring Lotus). So being on the safe side percentagewise is definitly useful here.
aside: I realized the need for at least one multicolored land when toying with the manabase, trying to add 4 Land Grant and Tropical + Bayou to reduce the probability of stalling out after a Draw7 because you don't find enough CASTABLE spells to actually make a Tendrils lethal. I regularly got into problems because those lands I could fetch weren't multicolor-lands.

b) I regularly wanted to see exactly two lands till turn 2 to be able to get enough permanent mana online to cast back to back Draw7s vs Control. (you mentioned this in your own analysis, too, referring to Returns as a reason)
 
A rate of 1 land per 5.5 cards should maximize your ability to get at least two in your first 11 cards (as in BS + starting hand + draw on turn 2) while not increasing the landcount to a point where it actually hurts your ability to combo out. (see c) )

c) I strongly feel that this also might have something to do not with the number of actual lands, but with the number of cards that can not be used to simply up the storm-count.
Considering that the deck wants to play a draw7 and then win (usually seeing 14-15 cards in starting hand + draw7), having more than 4-5 cards that don't add to storm/aren't used in those hands will often keep you from being able to kill after your first draw7 resolved without playing another one (which is really bad, as playing anything but innocent looking "non-business" spells and Tendrils here leaves you wide open to counterspells given to them by your draw7).

Considering any 6CC spell, the ESGs, FoWs, lands and Tendrils to not be usable to up storm this gives us 24 cards, if I counted correctly. This makes one of every 2.5 cards in the deck one of these, or 6 in 15 cards. This leaves us with 9 spells to storm with, exactly the number you'd want at this point.


d) being guaranteed to have one land in your 6 card mulligans is quite important for a deck that really needs a land AND does mulligan quite often (at least I did with the deck). So this should be a nice secondary benefit.


Personally I think the most important of these reasons are b) and c), because Being able to cast all your Draw7s and Tendrils-killing after a single one are what decides if you can win vs Control or not.

Leaving this alone for now, some comments on the deck as a whole:

note: I only tested this (2 cards of) vs 4CControl, as I feel that that is the control-deck actually most fit to beat up combo (mana denial is soooooo good in the matchup).

Draw7 has a serious flaw, imo, with it's gameplan against control. You will usually be able to produce draw7 after draw7 till one finally resolves. So far it works great.
The first problem here is, when you have managed to fight through the defenses,  they'll regularly have UU up.

The second problem is that your hand will be quite empty before the first draw7 resolves, so you often won't have enough Storm to get a lethal Tendrils of the 7 new cards.

So you actually depleted their hand of counters to resolve your lethal threat - the draw7. The bad thing about this is that you'll replenish there defenses completely but now with mana on the table. If you don't have Tendrils now or can't make it lethal without resolving another Draw7 beforehand, they'll often be able to counter the follow-up draw7 this turn. This leaves you again in the position where you have to cast back to back draw7s  till one breaks through. You see where this is leading?

You're entering a cycle, which repeats itself, only with one problem: the control player is building up mana on the way and destroying your other resources while draw7 is not meant to have an opponent that actually has mana to cast stuff (and draw7 itself has far fewer ways to capitalize of the cycle, too).

So while the plan is to force through a lethal threat, that threat replenishes your opponents defenses in exactly the way they need at that point (it turns their empty hand into a nice fresh one, much like Keeper used Timetwister in the old days).
Anything but a Tendrils-kill after the draw7 is resolved becomes really problematic (so a third Tendrils is really helpfull, imo).

What I'm getting at is this: A draw7 is not exactly the best threat to push through a counterwall by brute force. That should be done with things that kill the opponent without giving them the options to defend themselves at the same time.  

So what happens is Control gaining strategic superiority on Draw7, as long as the lethal Tendrils/Desire doesn't come up in your first draw7. And that sadly seems to be the case far more often than is good for the matchup (in my experience at least).

[JDawg13]

This problem against decks like 4c Control is generally helped out by sideboarding in Xantid Swarms.  Game one you just have to try and go off and hope for the best.  There's a good chance they just won't have a counter for your first turn draw7, so you have a decent shot if you go off fast enough.  Games two and three you have more must counters, as a resolved Xantid Swarm can mean very bad things for the control player.  It is in matchups like this one where the opponent has access to roughly 10 or 11 hard counters (4 Force, 4 Drain, 2-3 REB) where Xantid Swarms really shine.

[Spizzard]

When everyone keeps comparing Frantic Search with Time Spiral...your forgetting one thing.   Timespiral is a game altering spell.   It's a must counter from the control players point.  Frantic search is not.

I"ve not done sufficient testing enough to say whether or not F.S. is better than spiral, but I will say this is something you are not going to get from goldfishing.  You'll actually have to play someone who can react.

[goober]

Draw 7 doesn't like FS because it usually wants to use as many cards as it can get a hold of.  If they are mana they spend it, then they need the Draw7, and hopefully Force backup, the -1 card advantage of FS isn't good.  Also untapping isn't always that great, so 1 or 2 mana to careful study isn't really worth it.

The strategy of throw as many Draw7s at your opponent until they are exhausted doesn't work as well when you have draw0s in there.  Yes Time Spiral isn't amazing, but it is better than anything else I can think of for its slot.

[Windfall]

@ Mon
I think you give 4c Control a bit too much credit.  While it is good to analize the potential pitfalls of a deck, your opponent does not usually get a god draw.  I think there are three important factors that interfere with your analysis on Draw 7 vs. Control

1.  Draw 7 plays with Force of Will, and will have it turn 1 with the same regularity as its opponent might.  Turn 1 threat with Force of Will backup has won me many games against control.

2.  Hands with double Force of Will are pretty scarce, so it's unfair to Draw 7.dec to say that control opponents will always be able to stop the first two threats you play and then destroy your board with mana denial.  Double Force is four cards, and the mana denial is at least one card plus mana (see number 3).  I guess this means the control player has nothing left but a land if that.

3.  If a control deck wants to play the Mana Denial game, he will not have UU up to take advantage of the fact that I am refilling his hand too.  Either he will use land drops to play Wasteland, or he will use mana to activate Gorilla Shaman (and use R to cast it in the first place).

@Driven
I understand that you would be bringing in Freezes along side of the Tendrils win condition, but I am also of the opinion that Stifle would just be better for this use.  You said it yourself, Stifle buys you a turn or maybe even two - all you need to win.  It does this for one mana too, which I think is important.

If you are confident that Brain Freeze can win you the game on the spot, I would say that boarding in Freezes for Tendrils would be the right call, since you then avoid clogging your deck with win conditions, allowing you to run the same amount of acceleration and business cards.

@Smmenen
With my experience with the deck, I've found it pretty good to try and set up a turn 2 win.  You said that the deck does not play like Long in this matter, but I would have to disagree.  While I think turn 1 wins are possible, they are not what the deck should shoot for every game.  In fact, I think turn 2 wins are much more appropriate.  Long had a better chance of turn 1 wins simply because is was more degenerate.  Draw7.dec cannot win turn 1 every game but it can usually do something broken on turn one and then easily win on turn 2.  There is not much a deck can do in one turn to put fear in Draw7's heart besides "island, sapphire, go," and even that is not the end.  I think you are right in that the deck does not Brainstorm to set up turn 2 wins, but I do think it is good to set up on turn 1 to win on turn 2.  The exception is when your opponent is playing first, when you may be under considerable pressure to win before they can play barriers to your game plan, be it a Null Rod or just another Island.  If you're playing against a deck without these tools, I think it's fairly intelligent to try and win turn 2.  I guess the key is to recognize the "I win" hands that allow you to go off on turn 1 and take advantage of them, but I think it's unfair to assume you can do this with regularity, much the same way I feel it's unfair to assume the opponent will always have a hand full of Force of Wills and Mana Drains.  Naturally, everything is situational, and I may just be misunderstanding you on this matter.

@The land count issue
I blame all of my anomalies on poor shuffling.  Every tourney that I have gone to with this deck, I notice a HUGE improvement in my games when I pile shuffle before each game.  When I do that, followed by some riffle shuffles and a cut, I am always happy with the land count.  Since you and I both seem to see 1 land on average in the opening hand, and maybe two, and I think that's what we want, I see no need to change the land count because it is perfect.  With the inclusion of Mox Diamond, drawing another land becomes less dangerous still.  We also have Brainstorm to put lands back in favor of acceleration and business.

Some times shit happens, and I think one must accept this when playing combo.  Yes, once I did cast Diminishing Returns and was all set to win, only to remove Tendrils as the 9th and 10th card.  Yes, I have activated Memory Jar and drawn into four lands, Fastbond, Crop Rotation, and an ESG.  First off I remember shuffling poorly (hastily) before those games, and second off, I just accept the fact that shit happens.  I don't think there is anything one can do to avoid that simple fact of life.  If I had Asian Gemstone Mines I think I could increase my luck some, though it seems that they forgot to print Gemstone Mine when they released Weatherlight in Asia because I have yet to see one let alone get my hands on four.

On a more positive note, I'll be playing this deck in a tourney tomorrow and I intend on taking first.  I also intend on laughing at every deck that tries to beat me with countermagic.  I love combo and I think it's too good not to play, despite how good other decks are.  The only times I lose are due to play errors or shit happening.  The play errors I can eliminate, and that just leaves bad luck.  With perfect play, I believe this deck should win every tournament.

     ~Mark B.

[Smmenen]

With Long, I tried not to pressure the deck to play faster than it wanted to at a safe pace.  I generally aimed for turn two and as a result didn't really realize how fast the deck could be taken if pressed.

@ Carsten,

I agree with most of your sentiment.  That's an impressive analysis.  The biggest problem I have in playtesting against Tog is the fact that you refill their hand much better than it was before - sometimes with Drain + 2 FoWs and two blue untapped.  I think the solution to this problem is Xantid Swarm after board.  Altenratively, some spells don't refill their hand: Mind's Desire, Bargain, and Necro - each of which says " I Win" for the most part.  The third solution is speed.  Speed is really important, but as you said, sometimes it will be turn three before your draw7 resolves and they will have UU up.  

I think this is why I identified on page 4 that Chrome Mox, Mox Diamond, and Crop Rotation never come out against control: they give you UU on turn one to play a Draw7 where there is even odds it won't be countered - and when they won't have UU up.  Playing those three cards dramatically increases the number of cards that give you UU for a turn one returns.  

At some point though, the cycle you cite breaks.  I think the reason is that you have such a huge tempo advantage, they can't execute their game plan without stopping you first.  So while its true that you recycle all their Forces and Drains with Returns and build up their board each turn you pass them, eventually they will break or win - and most control decks take time to win.  The only deck that I can see actually just winning after you pass them the turn with a full grip but you being tapped out is Tog.  Sometimes they can just go nuts and combo out with what you gave them.  But for the most part, they cannot.  The draw7s are highly disruptive - and the sooner they are, the more disruptive.  

The second reason the cycle breaks is becuase you are bound to hit one of the Just Win cards: Desire, Necro or Bargain.  If thsoe have resolved, I have never seen a control deck win.

I will say that the Storm count or Tendrils hasn't been an issue for me.  Perhaps its becuase I'm generally not thinking about Tendrils until I have dominance over the game.

[Mon, Goblin Chief]

@ Mon
I think you give 4c Control a bit too much credit. While it is good to analize the potential pitfalls of a deck, your opponent does not usually get a god draw. I think there are three important factors that interfere with your analysis on Draw 7 vs. Control

1. Draw 7 plays with Force of Will, and will have it turn 1 with the same regularity as its opponent might. Turn 1 threat with Force of Will backup has won me many games against control.

2. Hands with double Force of Will are pretty scarce, so it's unfair to Draw 7.dec to say that control opponents will always be able to stop the first two threats you play and then destroy your board with mana denial. Double Force is four cards, and the mana denial is at least one card plus mana (see number 3). I guess this means the control player has nothing left but a land if that.

3. If a control deck wants to play the Mana Denial game, he will not have UU up to take advantage of the fact that I am refilling his hand too. Either he will use land drops to play Wasteland, or he will use mana to activate Gorilla Shaman (and use R to cast it in the first place).

To put this first, that part of my post was NOT theory but what I found when testing the deck. The matchup seemed to be heavily in favor of 4CC MD.

1. I often found myself unable to WIN on turn one, even though I could force through a draw7. Even though that disrupts the opponent some, they still have a good chance for a playable hand (control usually won't have to mulligan that often). Especially after they did heavy mulliganing (for FoW) or start, already dropping a land and maybe a mox, this still worked out to my disadvantage.

2. I never said they'd always stop the first draw7 but it happens OFTEN ENOUGH. And even after one draw7 resolved, their new hand is better than yours as often as not or you're simply not able to win this turn.

3. A single Wasteland often slowed me down MORE than a single turn, especially if I had a hand that had one of the 6 mana "I win" cards or Returns for Business. Same with Shaman.
The more relevant point here is that after the cycle started they will often be able to stop you long enough to kill your resources and keep you from casting anything, thereby winning the game in one turn (also see below).

Maybe I was to negative in the way I presented the stuff, I wasn't trying to say draw7 has an autoloss vs 4CC. The MD matchup is defenitly heavily in favor of 4CC, though, after what I found.
(I didn't try post SB, I did that testsession to get a better understanding of Draw7s inner workings and realize the important cards with and vs the deck).

I think this is why I identified on page 4 that Chrome Mox, Mox Diamond, and Crop Rotation never come out against control: they give you UU on turn one to play a Draw7 where there is even odds it won't be countered - and when they won't have UU up. Playing those three cards dramatically increases the number of cards that give you UU for a turn one returns.

Agreed, a turn 1 draw7 is by far the best bet for you to win (aside from something really ridiculous like Desire and you SBed Xantids), so maximizing the chances to get one is definitly key vs Control.

At some point though, the cycle you cite breaks. I think the reason is that you have such a huge tempo advantage, they can't execute their game plan without stopping you first. So while its true that you recycle all their Forces and Drains with Returns and build up their board each turn you pass them, eventually they will break or win - and most control decks take time to win. The only deck that I can see actually just winning after you pass them the turn with a full grip but you being tapped out is Tog. Sometimes they can just go nuts and combo out with what you gave them. But for the most part, they cannot. The draw7s are highly disruptive - and the sooner they are, the more disruptive.

I think your assumption that they'll either break or win is not exactly true. Even though 4CC can't actually win early on like Tog does, my opponent was regularly able to screw me enough or Mind Twist and leave me as good as dead even early in the cycle.
This was especially bad because, as mentioned before, a Wasteland or Shaman often stopped me from even trying to break through for a turn or two. This left them with an even better position onceI could resolve a draw7.
This COULD (as said, I didn't play post SB games) even pose a serious problem post SB, because Wasteland and Shaman screwing you is not affected by Swarm and Swarms slows you down at the whole. THIS IS THEORY, though.

The second reason the cycle breaks is becuase you are bound to hit one of the Just Win cards: Desire, Necro or Bargain. If thsoe have resolved, I have never seen a control deck win.

I saw Kim win once after Desire for 8 resolved against him :p (the opponent revealed all mana and a Vamp Tutor :/). In general I agree, those resolved are GG.
Those and simply having a lethal Tendrils after the first draw7 were the points where I won games against 4CC. Sadly (luckily?) this was not the case in more than 50% of the games (I think in the end I had about 35-40% wins while 4CC took the rest from me).