Battle of the Sets V - Pre-tournament info & discussion

[Legend]

Welcome to Battle of the Sets V! After the incredible drama and titanic confrontations of Battle of the Sets IV, this tournament promises more of the same heart-stopping action you’ve come to expect from the Battle of the Sets tournament franchise.  

The rich tradition of this storied event continues this weekend as defending champion Antiquities and the 32 other sets once again compete for the coveted title of Battle of the Sets champion!

But before the tournament starts, a brief review of the Battle of the Sets rules, followed by decklists, seedings, divisions, pairings, and some pre-tournament predictions/polls.


RULES:


-Format is single elimination
-Each match is best 3 out of 5
-As was done last time, the decks are seeded 1 through 8, with four #1 seeds, four #2 seeds, etc. - they are then randomly divided into four divisions of 8 sets each with the #1 seed in a division playing the #8 seed in that division, and the second round’s pairings determined by bracket (i.e. winner of the 1/8 matchup plays the winner of the 4/5 matchup); the final two remaining decks in each division then face off for the division championship and a trip to the Final Four
-At the conclusion of division play, the Final Four commences with the Division 1 winner facing the Division 2 winner, and the Division 3 winner facing the Division 4 winner; the remaining two sets then meet in the finals for the title of Battle of the Sets champion!
-With 33 sets this time, there will be a play-in match between bottom feeders Homelands and the Dark for the right to the 8 seed in Division 1


DECKLISTS: (If you need to see a decklist, look in this thread only. Don't refer to any other
                          posts from previous tournaments, since some of those decks will be outdated)



#1: ARABIAN NIGHTS

4 Juzam Djinn
4 Oubliette
4 Erg Raiders
4 Old Man of the Sea
4 Serendib Efreet
4 Flying Men
4 Unstable Mutation
4 Erhnam Djinn
4 Library of Alexandria
4 City of Brass
10 Swamp
10 Island



#2: ANTIQUITIES

4 Triskelion
4 Tetravus
4 Clockwork Avian
4 Tawnos's Coffin
4 Su-Chi
4 Rocket Launcher
4 Primal Clay
4 Onulet
4 Candelabra of Tawnos
4 Mishra's Workshop
4 Mishra's Factory
4 Strip Mine
4 Urza's Power Plant
4 Urza's Mine
4 Urza's Tower



#3: LEGENDS

4 Moat
4 Thunder Spirit
3 Greater Realm of Preservation
4 Spirit Link
4 Land Tax
3 Firestorm Phoenix
4 Pyrotechnics
3 Land's Edge
4 Chain Lightning
10 Mountain
17 Plains



#4: THE DARK

4 Inferno
4 Eternal Flame
4 Fissure
4 Ball Lightning
4 Sisters of the Flame
3 Brothers of Fire
4 Fire Drake
4 Fellwar Stone
4 Maze of Ith
25 Mountain



#5: FALLEN EMPIRES

4 Thrull Champion
4 Derelor
4 Armor Thrull
4 Mindstab Thrull
4 Necrite
4 Order of the Ebon Hand
4 Hymn to Tourach
4 Thrull Retainer
4 Aeolipile
4 Ebon Stronghold
20 Swamp





#6: ICE AGE

4 Jokulhaups
4 Incinerate
3 Demonic Consultation
4 Abyssal Specter
4 Foul Familiar
4 Dark Banishing
4 Necropotence
4 Zuran Orb
4 Dark Ritual
4 Sulfurous Springs
8 Mountain
13 Swamp



#7: HOMELANDS

4 Eron the Relentless
4 An-Zerrin Ruins
4 Anaba Spirit Crafter
4 Anaba Shaman
4 Anaba Bodyguard
4 Anaba Ancestor
4 Dwarven Trader
4 Dwarven Pony
4 Didgeridoo
24 Mountain



#8: ALLIANCES

4 Balduvian Horde
4 Pillage
4 Primitive Justice
4 Guerilla Tactics
4 Death Spark
4 Pyrokinesis
4 Deadly Insect
4 Yavimaya Ants
4 Elvish Ranger
11 Forest
13 Mountain



#9: MIRAGE

4 Volcanic Dragon
4 Wildfire Emissary
4 Hammer of Bogardan
4 Volcanic Geyser
4 Incinerate
4 Spitting Earth
4 Kaervek's Torch
4 Fire Diamond
28 Mountain



#10: VISIONS

4 Nekrataal
4 Wake of Vultures
4 Tar Pit Warrior
4 Fallen Askari
4 Creeping Mold
4 Stampeeding Wildebeests
4 Uktabi Orangutan
4 River Boa
4 Quirion Ranger
2 Undiscovered Paradise
10 Swamp
12 Forest




#11: WEATHERLIGHT

4 Empyrial Armor
4 Benalish Knight
4 Soul Shepherd
4 Serenity
4 Duskrider Falcon
4 Avizoa
4 Phantom Warrior
4 Sage Owl
4 Serrated Biskelion
4 Gemstone Mine
9 Island
11 Plains



#12: TEMPEST

4 Dismiss
4 Intuition
3 Capsize
4 Counterspell
4 Whispers of the Muse
4 Humility
4 Orim's Prayer
4 Sapphire Medallion
3 Grindstone
4 Reflecting Pool
10 Plains
12 Island



#13: STRONGHOLD

4 Victual Sliver
4 Warrior Angel
4 Soltari Champion
4 Warrior en-Kor
4 Youthful Knight
4 Spined Wurm
4 Spike Feeder
4 Elven Rite
4 Wall of Blossoms
12 Plains
12 Forest




#14: EXODUS

1 Spike Hatcher
4 Spike Weaver
4 Wood Elves
4 Survival of the Fittest
4 Pygmy Troll
1 Pit Spawn
2 Dauthi Jackal
4 Recurring Nightmare
4 Oath of Ghouls
4 Thrull Surgeon
1 Keeper of the Dead
1 Plaguebearer
2 Thopter Squadron
12 Forest
12 Swamp



#15: URZA'S SAGA

4 Time Spiral
3 Karn, Silver Golem
4 Phyrexian Processor
4 Smokestack
4 Worn Powerstone
4 Pit Trap
4 Thran Turbine
4 Voltaic Key
4 Claws of Gix
4 Tolarian Academy
4 Blasted Landscape
17 Island



#16: URZA'S LEGACY

2 Palinchron
4 Weatherseed Faeries
4 Fleeting Image
4 Cloud of Faeries
4 Snap
4 Miscalculation
4 Might of Oaks
4 Simian Grunts
4 Rancor
4 Faerie Conclave
4 Treetop Village
7 Forest
11 Island



#17: URZA'S DESTINY

4 Thorn Elemental
4 Ancient Silverback
4 Plow Under
4 Pattern of Rebirth
4 Yavimaya Elder
4 Rofellos, Llanowar Emissary
4 Heart Warden
4 Masticore
4 Thran Dynamo
24 Forest



#18: MERCADIAN MASQUES

4 Reverent Mantra
3 Story Circle
4 Cho-Manno's Blessing
4 Thermal Glider
4 Nightwind Glider
4 Disenchant
2 Ramosian Lieutenant
4 Fresh Volunteers
4 Steadfast Guard
4 Ramosian Sergeant
4 Rishadan Port
19 Plains



#19: NEMESIS

4 Saproling Burst
4 Blastoderm
4 Wild Mammoth
4 Stampede Driver
4 Skyshroud Ridgeback
4 Mogg Alarm
4 Arc Mage
4 Mogg Toady
4 Seal of Fire
12 Mountain
12 Forest



#20: PROPHECY

4 Scoria Cat
4 Citadel of Pain
4 Rhystic Lightning
4 Veteran Brawlers
4 Branded Brawlers
4 Troublesome Spirit
4 Ribbon Snake
4 Spiketail Hatchling
4 Chimeric Idol
12 Island
12 Mountain




#21: INVASION

3 Void
4 Blazing Specter
4 Shivan Zombie
4 Plague Spitter
4 Ravenous Rats
4 Addle
4 Skizzik
4 Urza's Rage
4 Ghitu Fire
1 Keldon Necropolis
4 Urborg Volcano
10 Swamp
10 Mountain



#22: PLANESHIFT

4 Lava Zombie
4 Terminate
4 Phyrexian Scuta
4 Lord of the Undead
4 Nightscape Familiar
4 Maggot Carrier
4 Flametongue Kavu
4 Magma Burst
4 Thunderscape Battlemage
11 Mountain
13 Swamp



#23: APOCALYPSE

4 Spiritmonger
4 Pernicious Deed
4 Vindicate
4 Death Grasp
4 Gerrard's Verdict
2 Desolation Angel
4 Phyrexian Arena
4 Spectral Lynx
4 Caves of Koilos
4 Llanowar Wastes
4 Forest
8 Plains
10 Swamp



#24: ODYSSEY

4 Psychatog
4 Shadowmage Infiltrator
3 Upheaval
2 Persuasion
4 Concentrate
4 Aether Burst
4 Standstill
4 Ghastly Demise
4 Innocent Blood
4 Darkwater Catacombs
3 Cephalid Coliseum
10 Swamp
10 Island



#25: TORMENT

4 Laquatus's Champion
3 Mind Sludge
4 Shambling Swarm
4 Faceless Butcher
4 Rancid Earth
4 Nantuko Shade
4 Mesmeric Fiend
4 Chainer's Edict
3 Cabal Coffers
26 Swamp



#26: JUDGMENT

3 Glory
4 Phantom Centaur
4 Erhnam Djinn
4 Anurid Brushhopper
4 Elephant Guide
4 Ray of Revelation
4 Phantom Nomad
4 Harvester Druid
4 Ironshell Beetle
11 Plains
14 Forest



#27: ONSLAUGHT

4 Exalted Angel
4 Akroma's Vengeance
4 Astral Slide
4 Akroma's Blessing
4 Renewed Faith
4 Starstorm
4 Lightning Rift
4 Shock
4 Secluded Steppe
4 Forgotten Cave
8 Mountain
12 Plains



#28: LEGIONS

4 Clickslither
4 Goblin Goon
4 Gempalm Incinerator
4 Unstable Hulk
4 Skirk Marauder
4 Skirk Drill Sergeant
4 Goblin Lookout
4 Goblin Grappler
4 Warbreak Trumpeter
24 Mountain



#29: SCOURGE

4 Eternal Dragon
4 Noble Templar
4 Daru Warchief
4 Dawn Elemental
4 Decree of Justice
4 Wing Shards
4 Dragon Scales
4 Silver Knight
4 Temple of the False God
24 Plains



#30: MIRRODIN

4 Somber Hoverguard
4 Shrapnel Blast
4 Atog
4 Disciple of the Vault
4 Myr Enforcer
4 Frogmite
4 Tooth of Chiss-Goria
4 Pyrite Spellbomb
4 Bonesplitter
4 Ornithopter
4 Welding Jar
4 Glimmervoid
4 Seat of the Synod
4 Great Furnace
4 Vault of Whispers



#31: DARKSTEEL

4 Fireball
4 Barbed Lightning
4 Flamebreak
4 Pulse of the Forge
4 Drooling Ogre
4 Juggernaut
4 Oxidda Golem
4 Arcbound Slith
4 Arcbound Worker
24 Mountain



#32: FIFTH DAWN

4 Engineered Explosives
4 Pentad Prism
4 Wayfarer's Bauble
4 Skyreach Manta
4 Bringer of the Green Dawn
4 Bringer of the Blue Dawn
4 Channel the Suns
4 Eternal Witness
4 Joiner Adept
3 Swamp
3 Mountain
3 Plains
3 Island
12 Forest



#33: CHAMPIONS OF KAMIGAWA

3 Kokusho, the Evening Star
3 Horobi, Death's Wail
4 Hideous Laughter
4 Cranial Extraction
4 Rend Flesh
4 Waking Nightmare
4 Swallowing Plague
4 Distress
4 Glacial Ray
7 Mountain
19 Swamp


SEEDINGS:

#1 SEEDS: Tempest, Onslaught, Mirrodin, Antiquities

#2 SEEDS: Apocalypse, Darksteel, Torment, Odyssey

#3 SEEDS: Urza's Destiny, Mercadian Masques, Fifth Dawn, Arabian Nights

#4 SEEDS: Urza’s Saga, Scourge, Ice Age, Legends

#5 SEEDS: Exodus, Prophecy, Invasion, Kamigawa

#6 SEEDS: Legions, Judgment, Alliances, Urza's Legacy

#7 SEEDS: Visions, Planeshift, Nemesis, Mirage

#8 SEEDS: Homelands/The Dark, Fallen Empires, Weatherlight,
Stronghold


DIVISIONS:


DIVISION 1 (D-1)

1. Mirrodin
2. Odyssey
3. Urza’s Destiny
4. Scourge
5. Prophecy
6. Legions
7. Nemesis
8. Homelands/The Dark


DIVISION 2 (D-2)

1. Onslaught
2. Torment
3. Arabian Nights
4. Legends
5. Kamigawa
6. Urza’s Legacy
7. Visions
8. Stronghold


DIVISION 3 (D-3)

1. Tempest
2. Apocalypse
3. Fifth Dawn
4. Urza’s Saga
5. Exodus
6. Alliances
7. Mirage
8. Weatherlight


DIVISION 4 (D-4)

1. Antiquities
2. Darksteel
3. Mercadian Masques
4. Ice Age
5. Invasion
6. Judgment
7. Planeshift
8. Fallen Empires


1st ROUND PAIRINGS:

D-1

#1 Mirrodin vs. #8 Homelands/The Dark
#4 Scourge vs. #5 Prophecy

#2 Odyssey vs. #7 Nemesis
#3 Urza’s Destiny vs. #6 Legions


D-2

#1 Onslaught vs. #8 Stronghold
#4 Legends vs. #5 Champions of Kamigawa

#2 Torment vs. #7 Visions
#3 Arabian Nights vs. #6 Urza’s Legacy


D-3

#1 Tempest vs. #8 Weatherlight
#4 Urza’s Saga vs. #5 Exodus

#2 Apocalypse vs. #7 Mirage
#3 Fifth Dawn vs. #6 Alliances


D-4

#1 Antiquities vs. #8 Fallen Empires
#4 Ice Age vs. #5 Invasion

#2 Darksteel vs. #7 Planeshift
#3 Mercadian Masques vs. #6 Judgment

[Legend]

PREDICTIONS AND POLLS


Before the tournament starts, I’d like all you Battle of the Sets fans out there to make your predictions about the tournament, having now seen the first round pairings and potential matchups down the line.  Here are the things I want from you:

-Your pick for the Homelands/The Dark play-in match, along with the reasons for your pick. Finally, Magic’s two weak sisters face off for the right to go to the slaughter - and I want to hear who you think will win this highly anticipated showdown, and why

-Your picks for each of the 1st round matchups, with your matchup analysis, and a games score prediction if you like (i.e. 3-0, 3-1, 3-2)

-How you think the rest of the tournament will go - your second round picks, third round picks, Final Four picks, finals picks, and most importantly, your prediction of the winner! Obviously, picking past the 1st round will be tricky because your bracket can fall apart if some of your 1st round choices get knocked out - but no worries, you’ll get a chance to redo your picks after the 1st round is over and its time to pick the 2nd round matches. But I want to know how you think things will go before the tournament starts - similar to filling out an NCAA tournament bracket.

-Again, I mentioned this in the previous paragraph - but just a reminder - make sure to pick your winner and finalist


-What is the most overrated deck in your opinion? The most underrated?

-Which #1 seed will be the first to be knocked out? Which #1 seed will be the last remaining?

-Which of the highest seeds (1 and 2 seeds) do you think is headed for a division championship, or better? Which of the higher seeds do you see headed for a crash-and-burn performance, or at least as a possible upset victim?

-Which of the lowest seeds (7 and 8 seeds), if any, do you think is headed for at least one upset, perhaps even better? Which of them do you see as having no chance whatsoever?

-Of the remaining seeds (3 seeds, 4 seeds, 5 seeds, 6 seeds), which do you think are headed for memorable performances? Which are headed for quick exits, or disappointing performances?

-On a related note, other than the #1 and #2 seeds, which deck do you see as the most dangerous threat to rise up and steal the title?

-If you have any other comments or general analysis you would like to add, feel free to do so




Get excited!

[Matt]

My first round predictions:

ROUND ZERO
Homelands d. The Dark (3-1)
At some point in this match a topdecked Ball Lightning will fail to win because of an active Anaba Shaman.

ROUND ONE

Mirrodin d. The Dark (3-0) No comment
Scourge d. Prophecy (3-0) Slow beats < incredible defense.
Nemesis d. Odyssey (3-2) A very close one. One game will be decided by Blastoderm not being able to be bounced.
Legions d. Destiny (3-1) Goblin Grappler and Gempalm will take down Rofellos, leaving Destiny mana stricken. Watch out for "masticore, go. EOT Gempalm it while you don't have regeneration mana."

Onslaught d. Stronghold (3-0) Shadow guys die to Slide/Rift. Also can't deal with Angel.
Champions d. Legends (3-2) It's all about Extraction naming Moat or possibly Realm. Waking Nightmare might so some damage too. Not as close as 3-2 suggests.
Torment d. Visions (3-0) Mutilate is going to slaughter their entire team. They also can't deal with The Champ (TM).
Urza’s Legacy d. Arabian Nights (3-0) Tempo: AN can't deal with getting a Djinn Miscalculated or Snapped, and it can't use three-mana removal on two-mana guys successfully.

Tempest d. Weatherlight (3-0) Tempest vs. Featherweight is more like it. Capsizing an Armored creature is enough slowdown to get the lock in play, and then WL can't win.
Exodus d. Urza’s Saga (3-1) I'm giving US a pity game. I don't see any way they can deal with Weaver-lock outside of a huge Smokestack, and Oath of Ghouls makes that a dicey proposition.
Apocalypse d. Mirage (3-0) Wildfires aren't going to do anything, and the irremovable threat of Hammer can be countered by Desolation Angel. Spiritmonger is less impressive because of Incinerate.
Alliances d. Fifth Dawn (3-0) Early burn on just about everything (Adepts, Witness both have only one toughness) and Pillages on key lands will strand the Bringers long enough to take it home. It's also nigh impossible for FD to remove a Deadly Insects.

Antiquities d. Fallen Empires (3-1) Protection from white won't do anything here. Rocket Launchers will also mop up any stray x/1s and x/2s. Really every card in AQ is a nightmare for FE, but I expect double-Hymn on a land-light hand to pull one game out.
Ice Age d. Invasion (3-1) What does Invasion think it's going to do? Banishing is dead but Necroing aggressively into Zorb/Haups is going to take it, with minimal effort.
Darksteel d. Planeshift (3-2) Almost too close to call. Look for Pulse of the Forge and Flametongue Kavu to be key cards.
Judgment d. Mercadian Masques (3-0) When Masques can't keep it's Circles and Blessings around due to Ray of Revelation, it can't hold off the much larger green men. Glory also trumps the "chump block your way to victory" plan.

[Matt]

Furthermore:

Mirrodin easily beats Nemesis and Legions, and probably is too fast for Scourge. I predict Mirrodin takes its division.

Legacy and Champions are out-manned by Torment and Onslaught. Onslaught takes its division in a barn-burner with Torment.

Alliances can't beat the other three decks in division three, at least two of which are top-tier decks. Maybe if it had been a bracket with AQ, MR, DS, or FD it could advance on the strength of Primitive Justice, but not against two lock decks and Apocalypse. Furthermore, Exodus can't beat TE and probably not AP. I predict Apocalypse to take this division.

Darksteel and Antiquities are the only contenders in division four. Both whomp on Judgement's slower, larger creatures, and both are wayyy too fast for Necro. Seeing as AQ can actually make Drooling Ogre a liability, I predict AQ to take this division.

AQ, MR, AP, OS
Semifinals: AP and AQ are very evenly matched, as past matchups have shown. That would be too close to call. MR probably beats AQ, but loses to AP. But where does OS fit into all this? OS can easily take MR, and AQ with marginally less ease, but AP trumps it with regeneration and Deeds. Thus I predict OS to be a kingmaker, but not a king, and AP to take the whole shebang.

Apocalypse would be the most overrated except that it easily lives up the hype. I think Darksteel is the most overrated. P.S.: Why doesn't Darksteel have Skullclamp? Especially with 4x Flamebreak, it would be amazing. If DS had Clamp it would be an easy pick for semifinalist at least.

Alliances is the most underrated. It's very much a "philosophy of fire" deck.

Discounting the #1 seeds, I think Torment gives the best chance at making a suprise Semifinals visit. If it can manage to avoid the silver bullet of Onslaught's enchantments, it could very easily manage to win the tournament, as it has very strong games versus the other three predicted division champs.

[LotusHead]

I can only focus on my favorite set of the bunch, Fifth Dawn, home of the Salvagers versus Alliances.

I hope Fifth Dawn's wacky bunch of 5/5 Bringers/Mantas with Eternal Witness backup will outnumber Alliances Hoards and Ants. Engineered Explosives set at 4 will make the difference, as Hoards have summoning sickness, and Ants have haste.

Granted, Fifth dawn has little removal beyond that, but Fifth Dawn WILL get the needed mana sources, Pillage be damned.

I'm pumped about this matchup for sure.

[Alfred]

I am almost positive that the Dark will beat Homelands. The dark has FAR better card quality than homelands, which will have to overextend due to mazes into a ginormous inferno. It will all come down to the dark constantly chumping, mazing and stalling, so that inferno comes online, then mopping up the reminants with eternal flame/ball lightning.

Picks:

Mirrodin vs. Homelands/The Dark (3-0)
That is so easy to discover that it suggests conspicuousness or little need for perspicacity in the observer.

Scourge vs. Prophecy (3-2)
Matt, you underestimate prophecy. It's a super annoying deck to play against. That said, scourge will probably win.

Oddysey vs. Nemesis (2-3)
I totally agree with you here matt, Nemesis took down the giant apocalypse last tournament, and I think that it has the stuff to be able to beat 'Tog.

Urza's Destiny vs. Legions (3-1)
I have a feeling that UD will mop the floor with Legions. Masticore, acceleration and FAT are going to smash those puny goblins.

Prediction for Division winner? Scourge. Because other than Odyssey, it's all aggro.

Onslaught vs. Stronghold (3-0)
This will just be a horrible smashing.

Legends vs. CoK (1-3)
I think that Legends will be able to pull out a game via greater realm, but then the disruptifying CoK will mop legends up.

Torment vs. Visions (3-0)
Not even close. Visions was THE deck Torment was created to defeat, simple disruptionless aggro.

Arabian Nights vs. Urza's Legacy (3-2)
I'm not for certain about this, but I like AN's chances here. It's creatures are bigger and faster, it gets obscene library draws and it has enough air power to contest UL's flying menace. It will be close though.

Winner of Division 2? Onslaught has this one bub. The only deck that could concevably give it a run for it's money would be CoK, but even then, CoK can't get rid of a resolved rift or slide, which will probably be the deciding cards in the matchup.

Tempest vs. Weatherlight (3-1)
Weatherlight is going to get the retarded empyrial armor draw once, or be able to sneak a serenity past countermagic and bounce and pull one out of the fire, but I'm not expecting much more than that.

Urza's Saga vs. Exodus (3-1)
Exodus can't get that early pressure on Saga's life points before Saga sets up an unwinnable board position for it. Think about it, thran turbine/Powerstone/voltaic key trickery, hitting time spiral and just dumping it's hand. Processor is going to be the card that exodus won't be able to deal with.

Apocalypse vs. Mirage (3-1)
Mirage will be able to beat apocalypse one game, due to apocalypse not being able to find either desolation angel or death grasp.

Fifth Dawn vs. Alliances (3-1)
Fifth dawn is going to take a dump on alliances. The reason being, is that at some point during the game, the fifth dawn fat is going to hit the table, and alliances will then fold like a lawn chair. I threw in the win for alliances because Fifth dawn will get mana screwed in one game, I'm sure.

The division 3 winner is going to be Apolcalypse. Don't ask me why or how, but it will win division 3, I'm sure.

Antiquities vs. Fallen empires (3-1)
Antiquities will rock FE in every game, except the one where it triple mulligans, and has a shit hand.

Ice Age vs. Invasion (3-1)
Necrohaups is my baby, how could I not vote for it? The reason is just like Matt said, just resolve a haups with zorb and necro in play, and it wins.

Darksteel vs. Planeshift (3-1)
Darksteel is going to beat planeshift due to flamebreak, pulse of the forge and juggernaut. Planeshift will get a win because aggro vs. aggro is usually pretty random.

Mercadian Masques vs. Judgement (2-3)
The last time 'round Masques won, but I predict a bit of an upset this time around. Judgement has the cheap fat, the enchantment disruption and the cojones to tough this one out.

As I said to Legend, this division is going to be a tough one to figure out. Ice age has a good matchup against darksteel and antiquities, but loses pretty badly to judgement. I think that if Masques could get past Judgement, it could take this one. I'm going to say Antiquities just to be safe.

Most overrated? Hmmmmmm...... I'm going to say torment. What can I say? I know it's done well in the past, but it has some pretty brutal matchups.

Underrated? Definately Prophecy. That is one of the most irritating decks I've ever seen. Bamboo shoots under the fingernails springs to mind.

In regards to the "Other than the #1 & #2 seeds, which deck could win?", I'm putting all of my money on the Ice Age deck. It's a matchup deck, but if it gets the right ones, it could go all the way! In response to Matt's position that Necrohaups loses to darksteel and antiquities, it's the other way around. Dark Ritual makes the Haups active on turn 4, and with necro, this is a very common occurance. Both Antiquities and darksteel need to overextend to win, and are reliant on their lands to bounce back from mass removal, so, I think that Necrohaups can and would beat both of these decks.

My prediction for the deck I think will win the whole thing is Apocalypse. In terms of the quality of cards in a deck, no deck comes close to the raw power of apocalypse, it is packed with so many bombs that I think that it will just power it's way into the finals, and just win.

[Legend]

OK, time for my previews/predictions:


PLAY-IN MATCH:

#8 Homelands vs. #8 The Dark

Previous Meetings: None
I like The Dark 3-1. Maze of Ith shuts down Homeland’s best creature, Eron the Relentless, and The Dark has enough “bombs,� such as Inferno and Eternal Flame, to take the match comfortably. Homelands gets a game with a Minotaur beating.



1ST ROUND MATCHES:

D-1

#1 Mirrodin vs. #8 Homelands/The Dark

Previous Meetings: None
Mirrodin is arguably the best deck in the field (only the other #1 seeds even enter that debate) and is always a threat to win the tournament. Meanwhile, the winner of the play-in match is the worst deck remaining in the field. Mirrodin in a very quick and bone-crunching sweep.

#4 Scourge vs. #5 Prophecy

Previous Meetings: None
Prophecy is an underrated, deceptively solid, and synergistic aggro deck that provide its mettle last time out with upsets over Invasion, Odyssey, and Mirrodin.  However, Scourge specializes in smashing almost any sort of aggro deck, and was one agonizing game win short of the Final Four last time before it gave up a 2-0 lead to eventual champion Antiquities. Citadel of Pain could be OK here - but Scourge will find plenty of ways to use its mana, such as recycling of Eternal Dragons. Meanwhile the damage-proof, flying Dawn Elemental (esp. with Dragon Scales) and pro-red Silver Knight will cause major problems for Prophecy. I like Scourge 3-1, giving Prophecy a game because I expect it to get one really fast start in a game where Scourge gets off really slowly. But Scourge is too consistent with its mana for me to anticipate any repeat stumbles.

#2 Odyssey vs. #7 Nemesis

Previous Meetings: None
I hate to follow the crowd, but I’m going to have to agree with some of the other predictions and go with a Nemesis upset win by the score of 3-2 in a very tight match. Blastoderm will be huge, although Odyssey does have two answers to the Derm - Innocent Blood after clearing away Nemesis’s other creatures and blocking Psychatog. Nemesis has generally low card quality; however, as we saw in the Apocalypse upset last time, its two best cards, Blastoderm and Saproling Burst, are capable of carrying the load and pulling the rest of the deck through to an upset. I have this as a 3-2 score, though, because Odyssey is designed to beat creature decks and is worthy of respect - but I’ll say that Nemesis will come out fast enough 3 times out of 5 to gain the sizable upset.


#3 Urza’s Destiny vs. #6 Legions

Previous Meetings: None
I like Urza’s Destiny to escape with a 3-2 win over the fast and consistent Legions goblin assault. Legions will have enough to mount two overwhelming goblin/Clickslither assaults, but Destiny will be able to stay alive long enough in three games to take over with Masticore and its giant green creatures. There will also probably be a game where a Gempalm doesn’t show up and Rofellos does - which will certainly result in a win for Destiny.


D-2

#1 Onslaught vs. #8 Stronghold

Previous Meetings: These two have met twice before, with both matches resulting in 3-0 sweeps in favor of Onslaught.
I see no reason to go against past results. With no disruption, direct damage, or removal of any kind, Stronghold has no chance whatsoever of ever winning a match against Onslaught, and next to no chance of winning a game. This will be another 3-0 sweep for Onslaught.


#4 Legends vs. #5 Champions of Kamigawa

Previous Meetings: None
The key card in this match is Greater Realm of Preservation, of which Legends has three. If it hits the table, Legends wins.  Kamigawa must get to turn four with a Cranial Extraction ready to go - without a Realm already on the table - in order to win.  In games where this happens, I like Kamigawa. At least going first, Kamigawa can use Distress to pull a Realm out of Legend’s hand before it hits and before Extraction can take the other two out.  However, if Legends goes first and has the Realm, or if Kamigawa has no Distress and Legends has the Realm, the Extractions will be moot as far as Realm goes. Kamigawa could then try to run Legends out of cards, but this strategy would likely fail, since Legends also has Land’s Edge, Firestorm Phoenix, and burn to win before it runs out of cards.  A toss-up match totally dependent on the Greater Realm situation. I’ll take Kamigawa 3-2, banking on the Distress/Cranial Extraction tandem outdueling the 3 Realms just enough to slide through to the next round.



#2 Torment vs. #7 Visions
Previous Meetings: None
Wow. This will be a total prison rape. Potential aces Uktabi Orangutan and Nekrataal are garbage in this matchup, and Torment’s entire lineup is great against Visions. Torment, in a fast 3-0.


#3 Arabian Nights vs. #6 Urza’s Legacy
Previous Meetings: Way back in the first BOTS, Legacy actually managed to beat Arabian, 3-1.
That was ancient history. Arabian is a better deck than Legacy, and that result aside, Magic’s first set has excellent creatures, an overwhelming card-drawer, and a bit of removal - a combination that will be enough to rumble past Legacy’s flying armada. Legacy won’t go easily, though, and I say it flies in for at least one win, and makes Arabian Nights sweat in a couple of other games. Arabian Nights takes it, 3-1.


D-3

#1 Tempest vs. #8 Weatherlight

Previous Meetings: None
Winless Weatherlight has put up some very strong first round showings in the past, including 2-3 losses to Antiquities and Scourge. Weatherlight also has Serenity. But Tempest has enough Counters to not worry about that. I like Tempest 3-0.

#4 Urza’s Saga vs. #5 Exodus

Previous Meetings: None
Exodus has never been a threat to win the title, but then again it has never lost a first round. That ends here. Looking back, Exodus was fortunate to have faced a suboptimal Fifth Dawn build last time around in the first round to keep the streak of first round wins alive. I say Exodus’s luck ends here, with its championship hopes going up in SMOKE (hint).  Saga, 3-1.

#2 Apocalypse vs. #7 Mirage

Previous Meetings: None
Apocalypse will finally snap out of the funk its been in since winning the first BOTS tournament, and take down Mirage 3-1, dropping a random game to some burn coupled with not enough life gain and/or deadly finishers (Monger or Angel) showing up.

#3 Fifth Dawn vs. #6 Alliances

Previous Meetings: None
I really, really like the revamped Fifth Dawn deck. Not only does it feature a lineup of superb creatures, but Engineered Explosives rounds it out as a complete deck that can handle a variety of challenges. Alliances has always been a surprisingly solid performer, but with Fifth Dawn’s gigantic monsters, I can’t see it losing more than one game to some mana issues (caused by itself and some Alliances assistance). Fifth Dawn, 3-1
D-4


#1 Antiquities vs. #8 Fallen Empires

Previous Meetings: None
Defending champion Antiquities usually drops a game per match with a bad draw, while Fallen Empires is always capable of taking a game with a Hymn Hymn draw. I’m not going to stretch the luck of Fallen Empires any farther than that - one game. Antiquities, 3-1.


#4 Ice Age vs. #5 Invasion

Previous Meetings: None
Ice Age is still looking for its first ever match win, having suffered some bad breaks on the way to losing three straight 2-3 matches in BOTS I-III, and then a 1-3 decision last time to Darksteel. Invasion, meanwhile, whether in its current B/R incarnation or as a G/R deck, has never lived up to expectations. I like Ice Age and its brand-new Necrohaups deck to finally get its first match win on the strength of Jokulhaups/Z-Orb, but it won’t be a romp. I wouldn’t expect it to be easy for Ice Age, because it never has been, although this new deck should finally deliver Magic’s first standalone to the promised land - the second round. Ice Age, 3-1, with some tense moments.


#2 Darksteel vs. #7 Planeshift

Previous Meetings: None
Planeshift is another deck still looking for its first ever match win, and through four combined tournaments with G/R and B/R builds, Planeshift still has only one game win, a surprising situation considering that it does have some strong cards such as Flametongue Kavu and Phyrexian Scuta. For whatever reason, it just hasn’t worked.  Things have been terrible for Planeshift. Meanwhile, just about everything has worked for Darksteel since it burst onto the scene in BOTS III with wins over Onslaught and Apocalypse. Darksteel even backed up its inaugural quarterfinal appearance with a Final Four outing last time.  However, I want to pick another upset, and I sense that possibility here. I just can’t believe that Planeshift is as bad as it has been so far. Darksteel has proven to be a powerhouse, but I’m going to pick a Planeshift upset in a 3-2 shirtsoaker, on the strength of Flametongue Kavu and some timely Battlemages knocking out burn spells.


#3 Mercadian Masques vs. #6 Judgment

Previous Meetings: In BOTS IV, these two met in the first round with Masques earning a 3-1 decision
I’ve developed a small sub-theme here - long-suffering sets still looking for their first match wins finally getting it, with Ice Age and Planeshift. I’m really going out on a limb with the Planeshift pick, especially since it has given no signs of life previously. However, I have somewhat more confidence in Judgment against Masques, especially considering the way the last match between these two went. Masques won 3-1, but the match was a lot closer than that (see BOTS IV coverage). On paper, Judgment has a chance in this matchup. It has Rays of Revelation to deal with Masques’s troublesome enchantments, and some large creatures coupled with Glory to battle past rebel hordes. Masques does have the annoying turn 1 play of Ramosian Sergeant (which it got every game last time), though, which led to major trouble for Judgment.  Still, I’m going to pick the mild upset here and choose Judgment in a tight 3-2 match.

[jpmeyer]

With a top 4 of MR, AQ, AP, and OS, I can see MR beating AP despite Deed because of Disciple of the Vaut, Myr Enforcer, and Somber Hoverguard.  I don't see MR beating OS though.

[Matt]

Okay, I tested a bit, and you guys are right, Alliances is going to lose to Fifth Dawn. Probably 3-0.

I also tested EX vs US a bit, and the only card that matters is Smokestack. Processor is not a concern in the slightest, as Weaver can hold off any number of Minons forever. Keeper of the Dead and especially Plaguebearer would be devastating, except that they can't target the black Minions. Thopter Squadron helps to fight Smokestack more than I thought. Saga will win, but only because of Smokestack. Literally no other cards matter.

But hold up. Why does Exodus have a Soul Warden? It has no way to cast it and only Recurring Nightmare can get it into play. That's a dead card. Not  that there's anything to replace it with that would turn the matchup around, but still.

Sigh. It's very frustrating to see Exodus do so poorly, because playing with the deck, you can feel how incredibly powerful it could be with access to just one or two select cards (Uktabi Orangutan, say). Survival is clearly one of the most powerful cards in this tournament, it's such a shame it's forced to have to work around opposing threats instead of being able to uotright answer them.

[Alfred]

Legend, in the Kamigawa - Legends matchup, if you went with my suggested 4 Kukusho setup, you could do 20 damage to him through lifeloss and making him lose that way.

P.S. I have a feeling that CoK could have a breakout performance. I'm liking the deck more and more.

[Legend]

OTHER PREDICTIONS:

Looking ahead, some general observations/predictions:

D-1 Champion:  I’m choosing Mirrodin to once again climb into contention for a title and take
                           this division without much trouble. I don’t see any deck it will have trouble with in that
                           bracket (although Prophecy did upset Mirrodin last time, I don’t think it will get
                           that chance again, and even if it does, I like Mirrodin to get revenge anyway). I
                           feel that Mirrodin can overwhelm most of the other decks in the bracket with its
                           ridiculous speed, including Scourge (which can't stop Atog/Disciple) and Destiny.

D-2 Champion: I’ll take Onslaught, although Torment could present a solid challenge in the
                          division finals.  Still, I like Onslaught to rack up another division title and
                          contend for its first title, which would end the frustration of coming so close
                          twice before.
                           

D-3 Champion: Apocalypse returns to glory with its first big-time performance since the first
                          tournament.  This division also features Tempest, Fifth Dawn, and Urza’s Saga,
                          but Apocalypse can handle any of those challenges, although those other three
                          decks present significant threats. Apocalypse has already proven it can beat
                           Tempest (doing so on the way to the BOTS I title) and the other two matchups
                           look winnable.



D-4 Champion: Ice Age looks very strong - and I’m tempted to pick it for the division
                          championship.  However, in testing it showed some weaknesses along with
                          its great potential for success - which is why I’m going to choose defending
                          champion Antiquities to somehow emerge from this division and head to the
                          Final Four.  Antiquities just had a lot of magic working for it last time. Sure, it
                          could come to an end with a thud, as has happened to the artifact set in earlier
                          tournaments, but I’ll bank on some more good karma. I can definitely see Ice
                          Age having a matchup advantage against Antiquities. However, Ice Age could
                          also crap out in the first round against Invasion (despite my pick of Ice Age to
                           win that match). I could also see
                          something going wrong against Antiquities if those two were to meet, despite
                           how the matchup looks on paper. I need to see a big
                          performance out of Ice Age before I can truly believe in it, especially given the
                          set’s snakebitten history.  Meanwhile, Darksteel and Masques have both enjoyed
                          success in the past, but I foresee problems for both, perhaps as early as the first
                          round.  In the end, the only set in this Division with a championship pedigree is the explosive yet mercurial Antiquities. I choose Antiquities to win a very tough Division
                       4.


Meanwhile, I like Antiquities to finally settle an old score with Apocalypse and head back to the finals, where it will face Mirrodin, which survives Onslaught to qualify for its second finals. In a tense showdown between the previous two champions, Antiquities emerges as the first ever two-time champion, and the first ever repeat champion by a count of 3-2.

[Legend]

@Matt:

In your predictions you brought up two concerns about deck construction. I'm going to disagree with one of your points, and agree with the other.

First, you wondered why Skullclamp is not in Darksteel. You stated that
"If DS had Clamp it would be an easy pick for semifinalist at least." Remember that Darksteel was a semifinalist last tournament, and a quarterfinalist the previous time, both times without Skullclamp. Plus, both losses that knocked Darksteel out were to Mirrodin in BOTS III (which would go on to win the tournament) and then Antiquities in BOTS IV (which would go on to win that tournament). The results are there for Darksteel.

Nevertheless, your question of why no Skullclamp is reasonable, considering it is one of the more degenerate cards ever printed. The answer is that the Darksteel deck, like all the other decks, was thoroughly tested and the deck didn't do better with Skullclamp than without. This is not the type of deck such as Affinity or Elves that can draw extra cards and then drop them onto the table right away. It is more of a mid-range burn deck that attacks a few times then starts throwing burn at the opponent. It can't abuse Skullclamp as certain other decks could.

However, I agree that Soul Warden should no longer be in the Exodus deck, which is why I am going to replace it with a 2nd Thopter Squadron.
Soul Warden was added a couple of tournaments ago as an experiment, and it never did anything. This is an experiment that I had meant to end a while ago, and I will now do so. Come to think of it, this also reminds me that Mindless Automaton has never helped Exodus either. I'm going to cut the lone Automaton for a 2nd Dauthi Jackal.  These changes remove two cards that have not pulled their weight and replaces them with extras of  two cards that have repeatedly proved useful. Also, you seem to lament the fate of Exodus, that it is too bad that it will do "poorly". Again, look at past results. Exodus has won at least 1 round in every tournament thus far. Not bad, but that streak can't go on forever.

Also, a couple of other things. First, on Torment, you noted in your predictions that Mutilate would be a big factor in the Torment/Visions match. Just so you know, Mutilate is not in the Torment list, nor has it ever been.  Torment has been one of the more successful decks, thanks in part to Mesmeric Fiend and Faceless Butcher, two cards that don't work well with Mutilate. But yes, Torment will massacre Visions anyway.

Finally, I'm curious as to what you meant when you called Alliances a "philosophy of fire" deck. What does that mean?



@Alfred

We'll discuss the Kamigawa deck through PM and Apprentice this weekend, although as we talked about earlier, 4 Kokushos is probably excessive and the idea of making an opponent with a Greater Realm or Story Circle in play lose 20 life points by killing your own Kokushos is a bit unrealistic.  We'll also resolve any other deckbuilding issues through PM.

[Matt]

It's something Flores has written a lot about on starcitygames.com. Basically it means it's the type of deck where you evaulate your cards in terms of the opponent's life total, and not the opponent's cards. Very similar to "hoit them for a bit then throw burn at them."

[Legend]

Flores sucks.

[Alfred]

I have a few suggestions for the upcoming season of BoTS! I have yet ANOTHER suggestion for stronghold, but I think that this one actually has potential! Homelands and Nemesis have also gone throught the ringer that is my mind to try and squeeze out the best possible results. Here are the lists that I think would be an improvement:

Flyers & Feasts:
4x Leaping Lizard
4x Faerie Noble
4x Willow Faerie
4x Feast of the Unicorn

Hold the Ground:
4x Cemetary Gate
4x Joven's Ferrets
4x Roots  
4x Folk of An-Havva
4x Serrated Arrows

16x Forest
8x Swamp

OR:

Critters:
4x Leaping Lizard
4x Faerie Noble
4x Willow Faerie
4x Joven's Ferrets
4x Folk of An-Havva
4x Eron the Relentless

Removal:
4x Roots  
4x Serrated Arrows
4x An-Zerrin Ruins

15x Forest
9x Mountain

The idea with the first deck is to lock up the ground with Cemetary Gates and Folk of An-Havvas, then go to the air with feast of the unicorned leaping lizards and willow faeries. Roots is actually probably the best removal in the set (wierd too, seeing as it's green), and serrated arrows is just a good card to have in the deck.

The second deck uses the only two cards from the current deck that weren't completely awful in a desperate attempt to not suck. It seems more consistant than the first as it isn't as reliant on feast, but then again it isn't as "broken" (LOL!).

I think that this deck is a definate improvement over the mono red list, mainly because minotaurs suck balls, and this deck is more 3 dimentional. That said, it still sucks balls, but marginally less compared to the other one. Plus, this deck will probably do a LOT better against fallen empires in the upcoming 3-way Battle of the Worst Sets (BoWS).

Here are my Nemesis lists:

Removal:
4x Massacre
4x Seal of Doom
4x Vicious Hunger
4x Parallax Wave
4x Topple

Utility/Disruption:
4x Seal of Cleansing
4x Parallax Nexus  

Win:
4x Volrath the Fallen
3x Flowstone Thopter

Land:
2x Kor Haven
15x Swamp
8x Plains

OR:

Removal:
4x Massacre
4x Seal of Doom
4x Vicious Hunger  

Utility/Disruption:  
4x Parallax Nexus
3x Reverent Silence

Win:
4x Volrath the Fallen
4x Blastoderm
4x Saproling Burst
4x Woodripper

Land:  
15x Swamp
10x Forest

I like the white list mainly because I think that this deck would just autowin against most aggro decks in the format with 20 removal cards. I considered blinding angel, but there are f-ing 20 removal spells, so I decided that it was a bit much.

The green list also looks strong. It can control the early game using vicious hunger, seal of doom and massacre. Then later on, it totally smashes face with some fat beaters.

I have also made a stronghold list that I think may be stronger that what is currently available:

Combo:
4x Dream Halls
4x Horn of Greed
4x Burgeoning
4x Sliver Queen
3x Carnassid  

Live until you get the combo:
4x Mana Leak
4x Sift
4x Wall of Blossoms
4x Wall of Tears

Mana:
14x Island
11x Forest

Okay, the idea is that you try to abuse horn of green/burgeoning by having a lot more lands than your opponent, until you have enough mana to cast dream halls. Hopefully by this point your hand will be relatively full, so that you can pop out a sliver queen, and start doing fun stuff with sift and verdant touch. Against decks with lots of spot removal, I would refrain from "casting" sliver queen until you have enough mana to make a crapload of sliver tokens.

EDIT:
Homelands:
-4 Spectral Bears
+4 Faerie Nobles

I don't need 3/3 walls.

Stronghold:
-1 Island
-2 Verdant touch
+3 Carnassid

The more I thought about verdant touch, the less I liked it. I think that regenerating fat is better than making one of my lands a 2/2 every turn.

Nemesis:
-3 Spiritual Asylum
+3 Flowstone Thopter

I had Spiritual Asylum in here basically because I felt I needed to protect my one win condition. Then I realised that parallax wave already did that. Flowstone Thopter, though expensive, can really kick an opponent in the balls.

[Legend]

Yeah, Homelands ought to go back to some sort of green base as it squares off against the other bottom feeders. Homelands has been changed a couple of times, no reason it can't be changed again. I'll look at the specific card choices later.

As for Nemesis & Stronghold, I'll get back to you on those as soon as I can.

Since this discussion has been revived, though, I'll post the revised Kamigawa list we agreed on a while back.


4 Kokusho, the Evening Star
4 Hideous Laughter
4 Cranial Extraction
4 Rend Flesh
4 Waking Nightmare
4 Swallowing Plague
4 Distress

4 Sakura-Tribe Elder
4 Hana Kami

8 Forest
16 Swamp

[Alfred]

Yeah, I like that list a lot. Just for some backround as to the green splash this time, it is mainly for hana kami (though sakura is nice as well). Hana is such a powerful card in this deck, because it is a regrowth on a stick. Regrowth is obviously the most powerful when you have a lot of sorceries and instants so that you can cast them multiple times. Sakura is great against fast aggro, and allows you to get at your game swinging spells earlier (laughter, plague, extraction, kokusho etc.).

Taken out were hirobi and glacial ray. It was decided that hirobi was too vulnerable, as almost every deck has some sort of targetted spell (that otherwise would be relatively useless). Glacial ray, though a good card in theory, doesn't increase the power level of the deck in the same way that hana kami does. The original thought was that glacial ray would act like lightning rift in slide. This is untrue basically because all of the arcane spells in the deck it could be spliced onto cost WAY more than cycling would, and saving spells to use for splicing later isn't a very good option.

[Zelc]

Have you tested Soulless Revivals for the CHK list?  Soulless Revival allows Hana Kami to become ridiculous and chain off more arcane spells than you can count.  Granted, this takes a while to get off the ground, and it may necessitate the playing of Kodama's Reach for further mana fixing.  However, you don't need to play that many (say, 2x or so).

[Alfred]

I did actually consider that, because right now I'm working on a flower-face deck right now in block. It seems to me to be a bit too complicated for BoTS. I tried it out, and it isn't nearly as consistant as the deck that is currently available.

[Legend]

I'm not going to comment on the proposed Stronghold list until it is tested, but a few points about Homelands and Nemesis:

Homelands actually should have Spectral Bears because the play-in division next time around will consist of Homelands, The Dark, and Fallen Empires. Bears are not outstanding against the Dark, but they will be very good against Fallen Empires. Besides, the Bears can still be reasonable blockers against the Dark's Brothers of Fire or Sisters, and can suck up half of a Ball Lightning. But their value against Fallen Empires is enough to warrant their inclusion for the battle of the bottom feeders.

As for Nemesis, I don't want to change the deck because the current aggro deck at least gives it a chance to steal quick wins over the higher seeded, more powerful opponents it has to face in the opening round if it is to pull an upset. The proposed control deck might be decent against simple aggro, but not against the top decks. The upset Nemesis recently pulled against Apocalypse is the perfect example of this point. Nemesis was able to score the huge upset with some fast starts before Apocalypse could take over. If Nemesis does not pressure the more powerful decks, it will lose. Nemesis needs to take advantage of any bad draws its more powerful opponents might get, and a reactive removal deck can't do that.

So of the three decks you have suggested for change, I agree that Homelands should change to a green base, probably combined with black, while Stronghold is also a candidate for suggested changes, especially given that it has not won a match since the first BOTS. But the current Nemesis list gives it the best chance to win against its higher seeded opponents.

[Alfred]

Point taken on the spectral bears. I also noticed that in a pinch they ARE able to attack. You know what? I would say that the Homelands has a fair chance of winning the BoWS. I think it will be a Rock, Paper, Scissors matchup with Homelands beating FE, FE beating The Dark and The Dark beating homelands. I think Homelands has the edge on FE due to Serrated Arrows taking out multiple pump knights, bears outclassing thrulls, Roots and Cemetery Gates holding back derelors and fliers slowly chipping away at FE's life total. The Dark will beat Homelands because it has inevitability, where Maze of Ith slows the Homeland advance, until Inferno ruins it. FE should be fast and disruptive enough to avoid the fate of Inferno. This should be an interesting play-in.

In regards to the Nemesis List, I seriously think that black should play a part in the deck. The three removal spells that black has available are almost exactly like Kamigawa's, with a -2/-2 board sweeper that costs 4, a 1 for 1 creature removal spell that costs 2B and a damage -> life spell. This type of removal would be excellent against two of the top 4 decks in the format (mirrodin and antiquities) and average against apocalypse. The RG version of nemesis probably couldn't square off against most of the aggro decks in the format half as well as the B/x could. I would assume that even against the best aggro decks, the BW control deck would win, simply because the combination of spot removal and board sweepers sill stop their gameplans cold. I think that we should go with the BW list, simply because it is a stronger deck with higher card quality, and has a more potent finisher in Volrath the Fallen.

[Legend]

Notes on Homelands & Mirrodin:



For Homelands, I think the best deck would be W/G. Obviously, Homelands has zero chance of winning a match in the main event. So the only reasonable goal for it can be to win the bottom feeder play-in division against The Dark and Fallen Empires. So what Homelands needs is a "metagame" deck. The list:



4 Abbey Gargoyles - pro-red vs. The Dark and flies over ground-based
                              Fallen Empires

EDIT: 4 Abbey Matron - solid blocker handles Mindstabs, Sisters, etc.
         without pumping, or it can stand in Derelor's way with a pump, or it
         can suck up an entire Ball Lightning

4 Aysen Bureaucrats - The Dark & FE both have good targets

4 Death Speakers - pro-black annoying blocker vs. FE, it'll need
                             Aeolipile to remove the pest

3 Autumn Willow - no explanation necessary

4 Roots - solid creature lockdown will handle Derelors or whatever else
              gets in the way

4 Leaping Lizard - nice creature that will fly over FE & is also fine against
                          The Dark

4 Spectral Bears - a 3/3 for 2 with no drawback against FE, respectable
                           against The Dark

4 Serrated Arrows - no explanation needed here either

10 Forest

15 Plains


-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

For Mirrodin, a simple but significant change:


-4 Tooth of Chiss-Goria, +4 Thoughtcast


Mirrodin has already won a championship with its current Thoughtcast-less
setup, but it seemed to run out of steam a little in the last two tournaments, in which it lost to Prophecy & Torment.

[Alfred]

That looks like a nice list! I however dislike beast walkers. They suck pretty bad. I would suggest putting in willow faerie, mainly because it fits the curve of the deck nicely, it flies and it doesn't have that nasty double white in it's CC. Other than that, homelands looks finely tuned to actually win the play-in matchup!

[Nazdakka]

How this in the Kamigawa list?

Thief of Hope
2B
Whenever you cast an arcane spell, target player loses 1 life and you gain 1 life
Soulshift 2
2/2

It's a 2/2 blocker in the early game, it helps against aggro with the lifegain, and it can recur Hana Kami in the late-game, for extra Extraction fun. I'd be tempted to cut Waking Nightmare (which looks like it's mediocre even against control) to put this in the 3-drop spot.

[Alfred]

This would be a negatory. I believe that Legend and I attempted a similar list with theif in it and it was sort of crappy. Waking Nightmare is really, really good in this type of deck. I think that it is important to have an equal number of disruption spells and creature removal spells, so that you can battle both creature decks and control decks effectively. Distress and Waking Nightmare make an effective one-two punch that can knock and opponent completely out of the game, if you want an example of this check out one of CoKs games against Legends, where Waking Nightmare kicked it right in the gonads. Also, this deck doesn't need any more finishers, basically because Kokusho is one of the best ever printed.

http://www.themanadrain.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=19779&start=0

[Legend]

Yes, Kamigawa is just fine as is. Also, I always clear out my inbox after reading the messages, so it must have been something else.

As for Willow Faerie, I was going to put it in, but the question is: does it do anything? Its hard to see a 1/2 flyer having any impact on the game with no creature pump. I'll agree on it for now, but I wonder if we can do something better with that slot.

[Alfred]

Ummmmm, I know what you mean about willow faeries. They are basically a green storm crow, which could be effective at gradually pecking away at an opponent's life total. There are a few decent options that could be implemented:

Folk of An-Havva (good at holding the ground)
Hungry Mist (not bad against control)
Primal Order (This is actually like, really good against some decks!)
Renewal (Card advantageous accel & color fixer)

I would personally go for either Renewal, Folk of An-Havva or Willow Faerie. Renewal is looking attractive for being able to get abbey gargoyle into play.

EDIT: Scratch that, renewal is awful. I didn't read the sac cost.

[Legend]

Primal Order is good against some top decks, but every slot should be devoted to winning the play-in division. Hungry Mist is alright, but it interferes with Gargoyles and Willow. Folk of An-Havva (or Joven's Ferrets for that matter) are similarly non-impactful as is Willow Faerie. I'll look at some other alternatives.


EDIT: Abbey Matron is the answer (yes, Abbey Matron should never be the answer to any problem, but we are dealing with Homelands here). At least it can serve as a significant blocker against either opponent. For example, it can stand in the way of Mindstabs, Sisters, etc. without pumping, or it can stand in Derelor's way with a pump, or it can suck up an entire Ball Lightning. So Matron joins Leaping Lizard in the three-mana slot; anything more than three mana would not have been a feasible inclusion given the number of four-mana plus cards already aboard, and all of the remaining options at less than three mana were not impactful enough to warrant inclusion.


UPDATE: Invasion change - Plague Spitter out, Pyre Zombie in

Some opponents have turned the Spitter against Invasion (for example, killing it during Invasion's turn, causing Shivan Zombie or Blazing Specter to also die) and Spitter kills Ravenous Rats automatically.

Pyre Zombie, on the other hand, causes just as much damage as Spitter in combat, has a very useful ability that can serve as additional removal, and can keep coming back from the dead in the late game. The Spitters have proven disappointing, so its time for a change.

[Alfred]

This is what I suggest for the GW Homelands list:

-4 Matron
-4 Bureaucrats
+4 Willow Faerie
+3 Serra Aviary
+1 Forest

Crusade effects always help out with weenie decks, so I don't see why it wouldn't here. If the complaint against Faeries is that they are too small, Serra Aviary should help out with that, while at the same time making your Leaping Lizards and Gargoyles more menacing, while doing very little for The Dark or Fallen Empires.

[Legend]

I disagree. Why would you want to cut eight perfectly fine defensive cards for the weak Willow Faerie and the respectable but unnecessary Serra Aviary? Yes, Leaping Lizards and Gargoyles also fly, adding to the Aviary's worth. But this hardly justifies the change, because it disrupts the deck's controlling strategy.

In cutting Bureaucrats and Matron, you lose eight defensive cards that would facilitate the eventual win with either Gargoyles or Willow.

In their place you get Serra Aviary, which does not justify the inclusion of a bad 1/2 flyer that really goes from bad to worse if an Aviary is not drawn. The Faeries are too reliant on Aviary. Meanwhile, Aviary does not further the defensive strategy of the deck to an extent that would outweigh the worth of Bureaucrats and Matrons in that category. It adds unneeded bonuses to flyers - unneeded because Homelands will not try to race. It will try to gain control of the game, then win later on.

Faeries are really bad, while Aviary is OK, but unnecessary. Together they are OK, but don't improve either matchup, since Gargoyles already rule the skies against either opponent, and Willow backed up by removal can also get the job done, not to mention flying Lizards or rampaging Bears.

Aviary also costs four mana, which would put eleven cards in the four mana slot - I don't think that will work in a deck with no acceleration. Wouldn't you rather be deploying an Arrows or dropping a Roots on turn four?

Moreover, even if you only include three Aviaries, the Enchant World characteristic will still cause useless draws of additional Aviaries. Autumn Willow has a similar characteristic as a legend, but two factors nullify this problem: 1) She's so important that you want to make sure you draw her fairly often, and 2) If/when she dies in combat, additional Willows are still useful.

Finally, creature pump can be very strong (i.e. Rancor & Might of Oaks in Legacy, Unstable Mutation in Arabian Nights). But those decks are focused on naked aggression. Homelands is focused on controlling its two weak opponents with blocking and removal until it can somehow win at an undetermined point later on. In this type of strategy, a card that doesn't remove, block, or neutralize on its own means three fewer slots dedicated to that purpose.

Homelands has only one goal for BOTS VI: to sweep The Dark and Fallen Empires, taking the play-in division title. This would be a very good accomplishment for previously winless Homelands, and is a realistic one. I think this goal would be best served by keeping the strategy focused.

So Homelands is finished as far as I am concerned. But I'll test it out if you really want to pursue it.



EDIT: Since we're on the topic of the play-in division, I'll address the tie-breaker procedure. With only three decks, there will be a round robin play-in. Each deck will play two matches, once each against the other two decks. Obviously, if one sweeps both its matches, that is the winner.

However, in the event of a tie, the tie-breaker will be games record. The deck with the best games record would advance into the main tournament. Now, its always a good precautionary measure to have a backup tiebreaker just in case. I hate the idea of coin flips ever breaking a tie, so instead the backup tie-breaker will be total amount of damage sustained. The tied deck which has taken the least damage would advance should that tie-breaker be required. Not the best decider for play-in champ, but at least less random than a lousy coin-flip.