[Article] I Have a Death Wish for Yawgmoth's Will, Part 1

[Gandalf_The_White_1]

The reason to play this deck over, say, TPS, is because it is simply faster and more broken.  Pure speed gives it an undeniable advantage.  The real question is does greater speed and brokeness make up for the lack of fow and a stable mana base?

This deck has seen some recent sucess and is certainly viable as Steve says... but it is also extreamly difficult to piolet and without fow it is more vulnerable to hate cards (like chalice and trinisphere), and it's mana base is easier to disrupt.

If it were me I would probably opt for TPS(this is also based on playstyle and personal preferance) ... I guess i'm just to chicken to play MeanDeath (Steve basically did create the deck; let him call it w/e he wants and it might stick).

Edit: Sbed xantids give it a big boost in control matchups vs TPS which basically must rely on it's original protection cards in this matchup.

[Thug]

The reason to play this deck over, say, TPS, is because it is simply faster and more broken. Pure speed gives it an undeniable advantage. The real question is does greater speed and brokeness make up for the lack of fow and a stable mana base?

It's faster, no doubt about that, but more broken??

It depends a lot on the defenition of "Broken". Due to extra acceleration it might pump out bombs earlier on, but I wouldn't call the deck more "broken", since it can't consistantly produce winning hands that might make it more broken than TPS. They basicly play alot of the same restricted cards, Mean-Death-Long ( ) just has more explosive mana producers and less land.

You have more change at a more explosive hand, but you also gamble much more, and if your opponent is able to stop your first threats you might still be able to draw into enough bombs to overwhelm your opponents but this leaves your mana-base totally open to all kinds of disruption, and with many decks focussed on mana-denial I just don't think the time is right for this deck.

This might also be because of my local metagame, I don't get too beat up scrubs with first-turn kills all the time, but I have to fight for every match so I feel much more confident with a Deck (and mainly a manabase) I know I can rely on.

Edit: Sbed xantids give it a big boost in control matchups vs TPS which basically must rely on it's original protection cards in this matchup.

With soo many deck focussed on mana-denial Swarm doesn't seem to be the bomb it once was. You are always spending a turn casting it, and that turn might just be the turn in which your opponent Wastes your land and drop a chalice for 0.

Few decks are really able to control a deck that keeps topdecking bombs just by countering them, they mostly have to rely on disruption to make sure you can't overwhelm them.

Koen

[Anusien]

Edit: Sbed xantids give it a big boost in control matchups vs TPS which basically must rely on it's original protection cards in this matchup.

With soo many deck focussed on mana-denial Swarm doesn't seem to be the bomb it once was. You are always spending a turn casting it, and that turn might just be the turn in which your opponent Wastes your land and drop a chalice for 0.

The chances of a first turn Wasteland are something like 30% or whatever that buzzword is.  Smmenen says that usually you spend the first turn setting up the second turn kill, whether that's Ritual->Necro, or Duress, or even swarm.  The fact is, turn 1 Wasteland hurts /every/ deck, and I think this deck can still recover from it.

[Thug]

The chances of a first turn Wasteland are something like 30% or whatever that buzzword is. Smmenen says that usually you spend the first turn setting up the second turn kill, whether that's Ritual->Necro, or Duress, or even swarm. The fact is, turn 1 Wasteland hurts /every/ deck, and I think this deck can still recover from it.

What I was trying to say is that for example if you pitch an ESG and use a Mox Diamond and a normal land to try and resolve a draw-seven first turn and it gets FoW'ed followed by a wasteland you have little mana producers to fall back on.

I won't compare it to every deck, but compared to TPS: TPS has far less trouble with a single wasteland since it has basics to fetch if you think you might be screwed by a single wasteland, it has more lands overall and it relies less on forcing through spells to find lands.

If you have enough lands a first turn wasteland from your opponent might just be in your advantage since it allows you a free turn to Duress/Brainstorm/Tutor and it gives you an extra draw for more brokeness. But if you don't have a land to back your first one up your opponents wasteland might just prove very valuable to him because you have a change of stalling out.

Also with more land you have much more change to win against a resovled Trinisphere, cause as it stands right now your changes of drawing into 3 lands (or 2, an ESG and a H. Recall which is pretty unlikely) are pretty slim, and if your opponent finds a wasteland to follow his sphere with you need to draw into 4 of your 11 lands without being able to cast any search/draw, go do the math.

Koen

[Razvan]

Actually, to be fair, in the opening hand:

Chances of 0 waste effect: 52.49%
Chances of 1 waste effect: 37.59%
Chances of 2 waste effect: 9.01%
Chances of 3 waste effect: 0.88%
Chances of 4 waste effect: 0.032%
Chances of 5 waste effect: 0.0006%

A 0.026% error in analysis of simulation.

So the chances of a 1st turn Wasteland being available if you play with all 5 is almost 50%. This is something to consider... (this only accounts in the starting 7-card hand).

And Koen, the math was done.

Why do I feel JP ushering his wrath on this branch again?

edit: ran 1.000.000 sims for better accuracy.

[Gandalf_The_White_1]

Actually, to be fair, in the opening hand:

Chances of 0 waste effect: 52.49%
Chances of 1 waste effect: 37.59%
Chances of 2 waste effect: 9.01%
Chances of 3 waste effect: 0.88%
Chances of 4 waste effect: 0.032%
Chances of 5 waste effect: 0.0006%

A 0.026% error in analysis of simulation.

So the chances of a 1st turn Wasteland being available if you play with all 5 is almost 50%. This is something to consider... (this only accounts in the starting 7-card hand).

And Koen, the math was done.

Why do I feel JP ushering his wrath on this branch again?

edit: ran 1.000.000 sims for better accuracy.

That's pretty close, but why do experimental probablity instead of just calculating it?

[Jacob Orlove]

Yeah, that's absurdly easy to calculate. It's just 1-(55/60)(54/59)...(49/54) = 47.5%

Now get back on topic.

[Razvan]

That's pretty close, but why do experimental probablity instead of just calculating it?

3 reasons.

1) While this particular instance is simple, it could get more complex. Such as, what are the odds of having a Counterspell card active while going first, such as having a FoW and a blue card at the same time, or a Mana Drain with Sapphire, and being able to Time Walk, Brainstorm and Ancestral Recall, with the particular moxen and Black Lotus also used. That's a bit harder to use statistics for.

2) I wrote the damn simulation, might as well use it.

3) To protest the pointlessness of forcing undergrads to take Probaility Model Analysis as a required course , thus shying away from any statistical mathematics.

Now get back on topic.

Incidentally, for some unexplained reason, Storm Combo decks are on the rise around here. Toronto has had a traditionally sparse Storm Combo metagame, with no tournament having more than 2 or 3 such decks at any time, if any... however, lately, there seems to have been a ressurgence.

DeathLong had a Top 8 at the Mox Pearl tournament at 401, and likely a few more players will start using the deck as well. More and more players are testing and testing against TPS as well. This could be interesting. I personally think the controllish feel of TPS makes it stronger than DeathLong, but you never now, since it's entirely dependent on the hate. DeathLong will fare far better if no one is prepared for it.