Your Waterbury Predictions

[The M.E.T.H.O.D]

1. What do you think the metagame will be consisting of?
2. What person/team do you expect to see in the money?
3. Expecting any NEW decks? any old decks coming back?
4. If Waterbury was tommorow, what would you play?
5. Do you think the results will have a major impact on the metagame for the new year?
6. Do you think the results will impact the boyz at WOTC?

Please note if you will be in attendence.

[Jacob Orlove]

Moved to community.

edit: answers!
1) Yes.
2) Yes.
3) Yes.
4) Yes
5) Yes.
6) Yes.

PS: Team Stunt Aircraft won't make t16.

[Bram]

I can only say one thing. Team Stunt Aircraft.

[Matt]

1. What do you think the metagame will be consisting of?
2. What person/team do you expect to see in the money?
3. Expecting any NEW decks? any old decks coming back?
4. If Waterbury was tommorow, what would you play?
5. Do you think the results will have a major impact on the metagame for the new year?
6. Do you think the results will impact the boyz at WOTC?

Please note if you will be in attendence.

1. Nonbasic lands EVERYWHERE.
2. Team Hindsight
3. Yes, I am going to beat my own team with Affinity and convince them all to play it and then they will kill you all. Prepare to concede to turn one Frogmite all day long. Also, nothing old will ever come back in type one, ever. NEVER.
4. Affinity.
5. Obviously.
6. No, because WOTC are actually men and go home every night to laugh at you 30-year-old boys playing your silly game, then fuck their wives. Twice.

[jpmeyer]

Psssht.  Team Midmorning!

[Hyperion]

1. What do you think the metagame will be consisting of?
2. What person/team do you expect to see in the money?
3. Expecting any NEW decks? any old decks coming back?
4. If Waterbury was tommorow, what would you play?
5. Do you think the results will have a major impact on the metagame for the new year?
6. Do you think the results will impact the boyz at WOTC?

Please note if you will be in attendence.

1. Workshop aggro, Stax, Control Slaver, and Dragon. The latter could be a real dark horse at this tournament.

2. Ray will not need to give away a playset of Trinispheres. Jacob Orlove and Ben Kowal usually do well at Waterbury, and I'm sure there are other regulars that just aren't coming to mind.

3. It wouldn't surprise me to see a new speed combo deck of some sort make a splash. I have no idea what it would be yet but that seems to be the archetype with the most unexplored potential. I'm not sure what can be done with Mana Drain decks beyond Control Slaver or Workshop decks beyond Stax and 5/3, and this doesn't look like a favorable potential metagame for aggro or aggro-control to emerge.

4. Dragon if I had the skill to pilot it competently. Realistically, 5/3, because I haven't played much since September and that was the last deck I brought to a tournament.

5. At the very least it will set the stage for the first SCG tourney.

6. Maybe if you see a T8 with 20+ Workshops and/or 24+ Welders. Other than that possibility I doubt they'll care.

[The Atog Lord]

I agree with Andy that Dragon is the correct deck for the metagame. Dragon is very strong against Trinisphere, and other Workshop strategies. Dragon has enough disruption to slow a "fast" combo deck. Control decks are less popular now than they have been in a long time, and Dragon is, in many ways, more difficult to disrupt than other combo decks. Therefore, while I have no plans to play the deck myself, I would expect a Dragon deck to do very well.

[rvs]

You should play the Tinker deck, and win

Purple Hat?

[walkingdude]

I make this prediction before every big money event and its always wrong, but I’ll make it again here.
Eventually people are going to get off their asses and test the combo decks and learn how to play them.  They will also realize that the combo decks are fast powerful and easy to build with 5 proxies.
I predict at least 1 and possibly 2 storm combo decks in top 8.

[Dr. Sylvan]

I predict at least 1 and possibly 2 storm combo decks in top 8.

I will be disappointed if it isn't more than that. Dark Ritual is insane.

[rvs]

I have to change my predictions after yesterday! Smmenen is going to own j00 all with Meandeck DracoPlosion.

[thorme]

1. What do you think the metagame will be consisting of?
2. What person/team do you expect to see in the money?
3. Expecting any NEW decks? any old decks coming back?
4. If Waterbury was tommorow, what would you play?
5. Do you think the results will have a major impact on the metagame for the new year?
6. Do you think the results will impact the boyz at WOTC?

Please note if you will be in attendence.

1.  Workshop Aggro, Storm-based Combo, Oath, etc.
2.  Both Meandeck and Shortbus will be represented in Top 8
3.  New decks?  Yes...but I better keep my mouth clamped.
4.  5/3
5.  A minor impact - not a major one.  
6.  No


Alas - I will not be attending....although it sounds awesome, and I'm sure everyone there will have an amazing time!

[Komatteru]

1. What do you think the metagame will be consisting of?
2. What person/team do you expect to see in the money?
3. Expecting any NEW decks? any old decks coming back?
4. If Waterbury was tommorow, what would you play?
5. Do you think the results will have a major impact on the metagame for the new year?
6. Do you think the results will impact the boyz at WOTC?

Please note if you will be in attendence.

1) Everything we've seen before: Combo (Storm, maybe some Dragon), Workshop Aggro and Prison, and Control Slaver, but not much Oath.  I think the novelty has worn off (considering its poor performance in large numbers at SCG III).
2) Few Meandeckers, and couple Shortbussers.  Then a couple new faces.
3) Of course! Moreso the former than the latter.
4) I would play combo.  But everyone knew that.
5) If something new shows up that's amazing, then yes.  If all the familiar decks do well, then nothing will change too much.
6) It's possible.  Something that's been on the "watch list" might finally get pushed over the edge.

I will not be there.  It's just too far for a weekend.  I'll suppose one of these days I'll need to make a trip up there.  Maybe over the summer, if there is one held then.

[TheWhiteDragon]

1.  The metagame will be flooded with basic lands, FoW, combo, and some workshop decks (more stax than aggro).
2.  Team Short Bus and Mean Deck will account for 6 of the T8 at least, as is in most worthy tournaments...but I still thank everyone else for showing up and funding our prizes.
3.  New decks that take advantage of the expected meta are the decks that can really break open here, however I suspect many people will just adopt a proven deck or be too scared to do anything new.  I forsee an abundance of old faithfuls.
4.  My newest creation to test it for SCG IV, but I'd be dumb to clue you in to what it is.
5.  Big tourney results ALWAYS impact the expected field.
6.  If my cock were in a hot chick instead of dicking around with cardboard tomfoolery, I wouldn't give a rat's ass about this tourney's results either.  So since they are grown men with cool jobs and puntang at their disposal, I highly doubt they even notice the tourney takes place.

[Phantom Tape Worm]

...So since they are grown men with cool jobs and puntang at their disposal, I highly doubt they even notice the tourney takes place.

And just what are you trying to say mr miller?  I can tell you for certain that there are guys with those attributes who will not only take notice of this tourney, but who will play in it themselves.  (Don't make me a liar by not showing up now, Zherbus )


as for the questions...

1) metagame: speed combo
2) person/team in money: obviously shortbus
3) new decks? old decks?: 2 brand new archetypes will emerge from this tourney
4) if waterbury were tomorrow: sex
5) impact on new year: SCG4 will be a direct function of waterbury
6) impact wotc: no, the inherent unstableness of combo combined with its vulnerability to hate cards will prevent it from being "dominant" in terms of wins.  the coin-flippy nature of these decks, however, combined with their gross lack of interactivity, and their reduction of the game to a bet on the opening hand will cause much debate and inspire an SCG article from at least one big name in the community who has been previously unpublished.

[Jacob Orlove]

There is one point I'd like to raise here, in terms of the Waterbury metagame:

I think a lot of people forgot what the waterbury metagame is like. There won't be bad decks there, but these are not necessarily people who will be on the cutting edge of the metagame. I expect a fair amount of Oath, simply because people will have picked it up and not want to give it up, as well as some workshop aggro. There'll probably be fish and goblins, just because people play those decks, as well as control slaver and 4cC of all varieties. Of course, some people will pick up Cerebral Assassin. And, finally, stax, combo, dragon, basic lands aplenty, "Team Stunt Aircraft", and the other decks mentioned above. The metagame is going to be really wide open, and if you prepare your sideboard (or even your maindeck) for just stuff that's on the "cutting edge", well, just go read Zherbus's last waterbury report to see what'll happen to you.

The key to doing well at Waterbury is not over-metagaming. Even in the final rounds of swiss, you could find yourself playing against weaker deck that's just gotten some good matchups and some good draws, with the player's experience with the deck being the deciding factor that kept him in contention. X-2 can make top 16, so literally half the tournament is still potential opponents for you after round 4, and something like 50 people (give or take) will still be in contention after round 6. That's a LOT of decks, and you'll only play 4 of those 100, 2 of those 50. If you're not ready for everything, the odds are good that you'll hit something unexpected and it'll just crush you. One loss to a bad matchup, one to poor draws, and one to a deck you didn't prepare for is enough to knock you out.

So, in summary, my metagame prediction is: pretty much everything. Be ready.

[Vegeta2711]

1. Everything under the sun and a lot of stuff you SHOULD beat, but who knows if you really will.
2. Team Shay + Testing partners (Team Reflection)
3. Probably. Gogo repeat FCG winner because people still can't beat Lackey. =)
4. Anything with 3 Sphere in it. Or FCG.
5. Maybeeeee
6. No

[Zherbus]

1) Control Slaver and 5/3
2) Carl and Rich
3) Probably not yet, the 'off-season' is still in effect.
4) Stax
5) No, because SCG the week later will have something different happen and people have short attention spans.
6) Only if there manages to be like a mostly Trinisphere T8.

[Triple_S]

1. What do you think the metagame will be consisting of?
MWS, Storm Combo, Oath
2. What person/team do you expect to see in the money?
TSB, Meandeck, somebody from Hadley
3. Expecting any NEW decks? any old decks coming back?
Some new creation from Meandeck, perhaps something new from Shortbus
4. If Waterbury was tommorow, what would you play?
Belcher
5. Do you think the results will have a major impact on the metagame for the new year?
A huge impact on the next SCG
6. Do you think the results will impact the boyz at WOTC?
only if the majority of the decks run 3Sphere, or Ritual.  Then you could see both go.

[Cuandoman]

1. What do you think the metagame will be consisting of?
2. What person/team do you expect to see in the money?
3. Expecting any NEW decks? any old decks coming back?
4. If Waterbury was tommorow, what would you play?
5. Do you think the results will have a major impact on the metagame for the new year?
6. Do you think the results will impact the boyz at WOTC?

Please note if you will be in attendence.

1. From what I've read about Waterbury in the past, the wide open meta seems likely.

2. Frankly, I don't give a rats ass.

3. Oath. People love it and they have the cards. Trinisphere will be there in force I imagine. It has been getting plenty of press.

4. Stax

5. Dependant on the actual result.

6. Only if there is some skewed T8. Like the aforementioned high Welder / Trinisphere count.

Seeing as the tournament is 1280.88 miles (20 hours, 38 minutes) from my house, I don't think I'll be there anytime soon.

[CrazyCarl]

I have to change my predictions after yesterday! Smmenen is going to own j00 all with Meandeck DracoPlosion.

I wish I were joking, but how'd you find out about it?

1. What do you think the metagame will be consisting of?

  - LOTS of Stax and the combo decks it's meant to hose.  A surprising amount of DR4GON, Control Slaver, Oath with a smattering of Doomsday along with the normal budget aggro decks(Madness, FCG, etc).  Workshop aggro, afaik, not so much.

2. What person/team do you expect to see in the money?

  - Well, if Meandeck and Shortbus don't place at least ONE member each in the Top 8 I'll be very surprised.  Seeing as how consistant Rich is, I'm almost certain he'll be up there.  I also see Aaron Kerzner and Teh Brass Manzor making it into the Top 16 at the very least, if not Top 8.

3. Expecting any NEW decks? any old decks coming back?

  - I wouldn't be surprised to see a new Doomsday varient pop up.  I think control in general will make a decent come back, most notably Tog.  I'm interested to see if Dragon will make a comeback.

4. If Waterbury was tommorow, what would you play?

  - MeanDeath

5. Do you think the results will have a major impact on the metagame for the new year?

  - Um, duh?

6. Do you think the results will impact the boyz at WOTC?

  - It really depends on if anything is dominating.  I think that combo is being pretty well hated out, so I don't see anything happening to Ritual or any of the other combo components.  If Stax dominates we may see the end of Trinisphere and Crucible of Worlds.

NOT

They might continue to hem and haw about restricting Workshop, but it isn't going anywhere.  If anything they're probably going to unrestrict more stuff, though they might put Doomsday back on if enough people play it.

[Smmenen]

I'm surprised by the lack of respect given 5/3.  That deck is the best performing deck in the US right now having won the biggest last major tournament: SCG Chicago - and having also won The Mana Drain Open.  

As for Dragon, don't make me laugh.  That deck is the new Rector Trix - oft talked about, never to show up.  Ask Kerz about Dragon that he played in the last Waterbury.

[Smmenen]

I would like to add that I think there will be lots of Oath and that Oath will do well becuase it didn't perform at SCG chicago becuase it was hated out, but it won't be hated out at Waterbury.

I expect: lots of Oath and Goth Slaver as well as 5/3.  Those will be the three most popular decks.

[Kerz]

As for Dragon, don't make me laugh.  That deck is the new Rector Trix - often talked about, never to show up.  Ask Kerz about Dragon that he played in the last Waterbury.

 

[rvs]

Well, ofcourse you have to take into account that Kerz sucks

[Bulls on Parade]

I played Dragon to 6-2 last Waterbury, snagging 17th  

I predict we'll see Rector Trix. Dragon is one of those decks that's easy to play but harder to play really really well, while Rector Trix is pretty easy to play optimally, and hate is pretty low for it right now. I'll say right out that I'm playing it.