2-Land Belcher

[Lunar]

I ran regrowth back in the day, and it was randomly pretty good...it can be dead for a bit though if you see it early (like honostly id rather it be the welder instead, heh) spoils seems like a decent spot to cover for seal for a while, id go with this personally from those 3 options...since it seems to be the opinion of everybody here that the trick with the deck is actually getting to the bombs, this helps in that regard (just like seal would)

regrowth and duress seem like more defensive when we both think it should be slightly more offensive...

[Komatteru]

Some odds on randomly losing the game with Spoils, assuming 20 life:

Spoils for 4-of:
50 cards: 11.8%
45 cards: 8.5%
40 cards: 5.3%
35 cards: 2.6%

Spoils for 3-of:
50 cards: 20.1%
45 cards: 16.2%
40 cards: 11.5%
35 cards: 7.0%

Spoils for 2-of:
50 cards: 35.5%
45 cards: 30.3%
40 cards: 24.4%
35 cards: 17.6%

Those odds are unacceptable, particularly for the 3-of's.  It is not acceptable to lose one game to Spoils of the Vault.  Compare these odds for Consultation.  I'll even do the odds of Consulting for a Restricted card to show you how bad the Spoils odds are.  The odds of consulting for a restricted card and removing your entire library from the game are:
50 cards: 12%
45 cards: 13.3%
40 cards: 15%
35 cards: 17.1%

You can do them yourself, but Consulting for a 3-of gives you about a 70% chance of finding one in the top 15 cards (I didn't adjust for the top 6 b/c it's late and that's kinda complicated).

Now, if you mistaken and consider that Consulting for a 1-of to be an awful play (no exceptions), then you would have to consider Consulting for a 3-of just as bad.  Losing one game to unreasonably high odds is just not acceptable and why I will never play Spoils in a serious deck ever again.

[Luiggi]

Fair enough... I didn't know the odds were that bad. Of course I'd run more than 1 Consultation if we could, but we can't, and rightfully so, . Would you ever run a 2nd Tainted Pact, or is that overkill? What are your thoughts on Regrowth and moving 1 Welder to the SB?

EDIT: forcefieldforyou, did you ever ask your friend Jon about his Belcher build?

Luiggi

[Luiggi]

Hey everyone,
I figured I'd bump the thread and give you a mini-report, since I ran the deck to a 5-3 finish on Day One of Waterbury. I might've eked into the top-32, but I'm not sure, since I had to leave right after the last round (my ride wanted to get back to the NYC to go out). Here's my decklist:

1 Bayou
1 Taiga

1 Channel
4 Land Grant
4 Tinder Wall
4 Elvish Spirit Guide
4 Dark Ritual
3 Cabal Ritual
1 Black Lotus
1 Lion's Eye Diamond
1 Mox Pearl
1 Mox Emerald
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Mox Jet
1 Mox Ruby
1 Sol Ring
1 Grim Monolith
1 Mana Vault
1 Lotus Petal
1 Mana Crypt

4 Chromatic Sphere
1 Demonic Tutor
1 Vampiric Tutor
1 Demonic Consultation
1 Tainted Pact
2 Living Wish
1 Wheel of Fortune
1 Memory Jar
1 Yawgmoth's Will
1 Yawgmoth's Bargain
1 Necropotence
3 Duress
4 Goblin Welder
4 Goblin Charbelcher

SB:
4 Xantid Swarm
1 Eternal Witness
1 Hearth Kami
1 Platinum Angel
1 Uktabi Orangutan
1 Ancient Tomb
1 Forbidden Orchard
1 Tolarian Academy
2 Oxidize
1 Artifact Mutation
1 Naturalize

I cut the SB Phyrexian Negator before the tournament, since I never Wished for it in practice, and eliasv suggested running a Platinum Angel, that might be useful with Welders if I have a lot of acceleration and draw into a Living Wish rather than a tutor for the win. I never Wished for it during the tournament, though, so I'm unsure of how good it was. In retrospect I don't think it should be there.

Here's a quick rundown of my rounds:

Round 1: Jarad, with modified Brassman Gifts
Game 1 goes for a while, and he counters a few of my threats, eats some artifacts with a Mox Monkey, and then eventually Gifts for the Severance-Belcher kill. Game 2 my first turn is nuts: Bayou, Xantid Swarm (resolves), Black Lotus, Necro (resolves). I win quite comfortably on turn 2. Game 3 is very even, with him having to double Force two of threats in one turn, and it eventually turns into a topdecking war. He has to tap out of Blue to do something on his turn, leaving me a window. I draw something crappy, but crack a Chromatic Sphere for Black and draw into Demonic Tutor. I have an LED on board, so I'm pretty confidant. I play DT and sac LED in response for BBB. Now, for some reason, I don't go for Yawgmoth's Will, but rather grab a Charbelcher, despite the fact that my graveyard is so ridiculously stuffed with goodness and mana that I would've won on the spot if I grabbed Will (he had a Mana Drain in his hand but was out of Blue). So I grab a Belcher and play it and pass the turn. Jarad also topdecks DT, and has to find Recoup for the Echoing Ruin in his graveyard. I realize my mistake a few turns later, and after we both topdeck threats/answers for a few turns, he resolves a ridiculous Will and wins. Sigh... I attribute that to a lack of real-life playtesting on my part, and though it was a loss for the tournament, I count it as a win for the deck, in terms of grading its performance.
0-1

Round 2: Chris, with Mono-Black discard
Game One isn't fair at all, as I dump my whole hand on the play on turn 1, making his Duress/Hymn/Hyppies useless, and win on turn 2. Game 2 I keep a hand of all acceleration but no threat, thinking I'll draw into one before he kills me. Well, Hyppie + Hymn + Nezumi Shortfang make me lose my hand pretty fast, and once Shortfang flips the combination of Rack-type damage and creature damage kills me. Game Three is just like Game One, and I win very comfortably on turn 2.
1-1

Round 3: Eric, with Uba Stax/Animal Farm
I mulligan to 5 and find a decent hand with Crypt + Sapphire, but no Black source. His deck is really bizarre, and he plays out a quick Uba Mask and tons of acceleration, but no kill card. He's milking a Fastbond he played on turn 1, and when he plays out a Zuran Orb everything clicks into place. He plays Barbarian Ring, gains infinite life/mana with Zuran Orb + Fastbond, then sacs enough lands to get Threshold and kill me with repeated Barbarian Ring activations. In Game 2 I mulligan to 5 again, and lead with Bayou + a Mox. He goes Workshop + Orb of Dreams. I, however, savagely rip Charbelcher and use one of the two Dark Rituals in my hand to play it. He can't kill me on his turn, so on my turn I Ritual + Belch for the win. In Game 3 he has to mulligan to 4 cards, and can't do anything to stop me from winning on turn 2 or 3, through an Orb of Dreams.
2-1

Round 4: Peter, with Oath
Peter had a Feature Match in Round 1, so I guess he's a good Vintage player I just haven't heard of by name. Game 1 is savage, and on turn 2 I go Necro (Forced) and Belcher (Forced). He's left with nothing, and I rip a tutor or something and win a turn or two later. Games 2 and 3 he brings in Energy Fluxes and Oxidize (he was lamenting having taken Null Rod out of his SB right before the tournament). He counters some threats in both those games, and Plows a Swarm, and is able to get down Oaths. My Pro Player card spirit tokens don't help me much, and Akroma + Ancient Hydra make quick work of me. Peter is very cool, and the games were enjoyable. I didn't expect much Oath, so I just wasn't sure of how to board or play. Oh well.
2-2

Round 5: Bryce, with Mono-Red
These games are very fast, as he has zero disruption. He's already played against a bunch of combo today, and was very skeptical of his chances from the get-go. I win on turn 1 in Game One, I believe, and on turn 2 in Game Two. He brought in 4 Pyrostatic Pillars, but had to mulligan to 3 in the second game to find one, but he only had one mana source, so it never came down.
3-2

Round 6: Peter Magyar, with Food Chain Goblins (he was in two feature matches at StarCity Richmond, losing to Brassman and Jacob)
He is still running Food Chain Goblins, and both games are completely one-sided. FCG is not good against Belcher, especially if it can't find one of its Null Rods in Game Two. I combo on turn 2 in both games, I believe. Peter is really nice, and we chitchat for a while after the round and wish each other luck.
4-2

Round 7: Mike, with Control Slaver
Game One is a drawn out affair, with me resolving a Memory Jar and a Wheel of Fortune, but they just help Mike so much more than they help me. In his Jar cards he of course has a Brainstorm, so he's able to save his Will and a Force, I believe. He resolves one of the most ridiculous Wills I've ever seen, and I scoop to leave time for the next two games, if necessary. In Game Two he draws very well, and mine is subpar. Again I resolve a Draw-7 that helps him a lot more than it helps me, and he gets down 3 Welders and a Trike, ending things pretty quickly.
4-3

Round 8: Eddie, with U/W Fish
We were both out of the top-16, but we came to play so we were gonna play the last round, . Game one is pretty savage, since I just get a nutty draw, and win on turn 2 or 3 through a Force of Will and a Daze. It was nice to have him discard 2 Meddling Mage, 2 Stifles and some other disruption when I ended my Memory Jar turn (I also broke his Standstill after popping the Jar, to get him to discard more cards). The Jar led to Necro, and Necro generally leads to victory. In Game Two he mulligans to 5 and leads with an Island. I think I play out a Land Grant and a Mox or two, and I reveal a couple of Rituals, a Demonic Consultation and an Oxidize in my hand when I Grant. On his second turn he plays an Island, and then a second later he takes it back, playing a Flooded Strand. While I believe Eddie when he said that he meant to play the Strand, he clearly played an Island and then took it back. I argue for a bit but then let him have his Strand, that he obviously cracks for a Tundra, and then plays a Meddling Mage. At this point I figure I've lost this game, since my only out to a Mage naming Belcher is to Weld one into play (and good luck getting a Welder to stick through counters, STPs and Ication Javelineers). Eddie, however, decides to name Oxidize with Meddling Mage, that leaves me quite confused. On my turn I simply Ritual, Consult for Belcher, Ritual again, play a Tinder Wall and sac it and tap my Mox and Belch him out. Turns out he had a Null Rod on his hand, and wanted to stop me from playing Oxidize on it. He just didn't think I could go off in that one turn, but the deck is just good, .
5-3

Overall I'm pretty happy with my first big tournament with the deck. I'm sort of disappointed in that I lost to all 3 Drain decks I played against, but if I count Round 1 as a victory for the deck (since the deck delivered in spades and I just lost the game for myself) it's not so bad.

Some assorted thoughts:

- I think I should've played maindeck Xantid Swarms instead of Duress. Duress wasn't that hot, and always came out against Control anyway. It's more useful vs. Stax, but then again it's not that hot, either. Swarm is just a bigger threat vs. Control, no ifs, ands or buts about it;

- the Living Wishes were quite crappy. The only card I ever Wished for was Forbidden Orchard, if I needed colored mana. I'm toying with the idea of adding a Burning Wish to the deck, that gives me another good out vs. artifact hate (Echoing Ruin), a better recursion spell than Eternal Witness (Regrowth [I traded for a Beta one yesterday, too, so I want to use it, hehe], since sometimes a DT or Will will get countered, and that just sucks) and the option of running a Draw-7 like Timetwister (I do have Chromatic Spheres), as well as other potentially useful cards like Pyroclasm. To make room for it I'm probably going to try cutting a Living Wish;

- I'm also going to reduce the Living Wish targets in the SB, I think. Ancient Tomb just didn't seem necessary, as did Eternal Witness and Platinum Angel/Negator, though I'm not sure what to put in their places. I just think that Burning Wish will prove to be much better than Living Wish;

- Imperial Seal is another option I've been toying with, since Portal is about to become legal (and it's already legal for Day Two of Waterbury, currently being played).

Thoughts on these thoughts and proposed changes?

Anyway, I hope you guys enjoyed that mini-report, and I'd appreciate any thoughts on the deck. I plan on sticking with it for a while, and trying to make it better.

Luiggi

[cophos]

5:3 is more or less decent, but note: Most of your wins were in rather easy Matchups.
@your changes: 
- Sry, but the Angel seems and probybly is total(lly) crap(py)! First thing to cut.
- Cutting Duress for Swarms might be an ok choice in a drain heavy metagame, but in many matchups you'd rather want to play with Duress. (Other Combo, Prison, Fish (depends.))
- Seal should be in there imo, cutting Pact for it seems optimal.

[Luiggi]

5:3 is more or less decent, but note: Most of your wins were in rather easy Matchups.

Yup, I agree. U/W Fish could be quite problematic, though, and FCG can win fast, too. Having said that, I don't think this deck is bad against Drain decks, and in reality I only should've lost to two of them.

@your changes: 
- Sry, but the Angel seems and probybly is total(lly) crap(py)! First thing to cut.

Yup. That's exactly what I said.

- Cutting Duress for Swarms might be an ok choice in a drain heavy metagame, but in many matchups you'd rather want to play with Duress. (Other Combo, Prison, Fish (depends.))

Yeah, I agree. Going into what is traditionally a Control-oriented metagame, like Waterbury, I think it would've been the right choice.

Luiggi

[cophos]

U/W Fish could be quite problematic, though, and FCG can win fast, too. Having said that, I don't think this deck is bad against Drain decks, and in reality I only should've lost to two of them.

I agree with fish, but FCG is way too slow to race you under normal circumstances.
The decks isn't alwful against control, (in a control metagame I'd rather want play something like long though), but FoW can hurt. But we've discussed that before and I probably will play the deck in a week at a bigger tournament anyway.

[Luiggi]

Oh, I totally agree regarding Food Chain Goblins. In my (admittedly few) practice games against eliasv, who was running it at the tournament, they ended up 7-3 in my favor or something, and the ones he won were only because of a turn 1 Chalice for 0. Most FCG players don't seem to be running it, though. Null Rods can be pretty scary for us too, though.

What are your thoughts re: Burning Wish? The main targets I can think of are Echoing Ruin (vs. Chalices, Null Rods, Pithing Needles, etc., even if in multiples), maybe Regrowth (if we need to get back a YWill or something) and Timetwister (to have access to an "Oops, I win" spell; I'm open to other suggestions, too). Like I said, Living Wish just wasn't that hot for me, though I don't mind having access to one of them to grab the occasional Academy, Orchard, etc.

And yes, I think Imperial Seal should definitely go in, too. I almost want to leave Tainted Pact, since it can occasionally be very good, as well as being an instant-speed quasi-tutor. I think cutting something like Tinder Wall #4 might even be more appropriate. Thoughts?

Luiggi

[Gabethebabe]

Cut the Living Wish if you didn´t like it!

How was your mulligan rate and how did it affect your wins?

[Luiggi]

I actually didn't mulligan that much. I mulliganed to 5 twice in the tournament, and both times were in Round 3, when playing against that bizaare Uba Stax/Animal Farm deck. I lost on the play and won on the draw (in that order). Other than that I think I mulliganed to 6 a few times, but nothing major. The deck was pretty consistent, and I'm still kicking myself about my huge mistake in Round 1. I wonder how that would've affected my pairings for the rest of the tournament...

Luiggi

[Luiggi]

Ha! For all you naysayers, JDizzle top-8'd at StarCity Chicago with 2-Land Belcher, with only one different card in the maindeck (he swapped Tainted Pact for Imperial Seal), and a few SB swaps (City of Traitors for Ancient Tomb, and Elvish Scrapper for Hearth Kami).

JD: congrats, dude, and I can't wait for the report and primer.

Belch on.

Luiggi

[policehq]

Elvish Scrapper vs. Hearth Kami:

That seems like a really odd choice to me. Obviously, if you can cast Living Wish through Chalice, you can cast Hearth Kami to destroy a Chalice set at one counter.

I like the City of Traitors swap, but Tolarian Academy still confuses the crap out of me. I never get the acceleration I need from it. A lot of people will chime in and assume that Belcher always seems to have tons of artifacts around, but it's never true. At most, I can get two mana from it, ever, but it might as well be colorless since I don't play blue.

[sampling_percus]

Elvish Scrapper vs. Hearth Kami:

That seems like a really odd choice to me. Obviously, if you can cast Living Wish through Chalice, you can cast Hearth Kami to destroy a Chalice set at one counter.

would the naturalize not be a better target in this case?

[Luiggi]

You can't grab Naturalize with Living Wish, so we need to find a creature that we can grab, hence cards like Uktabi Orangutan, Hearth Kami and Elvish Scrapper.

What I don't like about the Scrapper is that you need to wait a turn to use him, whereas you can sac the Kami the turn you play him (for no mana if you're destroying a Chalice, but more if you're destroying something else).

Luiggi

[Whatever Works]

Why isnt Imperial Seal in every single list? It is incredible in this deck, and becomes amazing if you happen to have a chromatic sphere or draw 7... Regardless its better then spoils of the vault which I agree 100% with JD about being unplayable (unless your playing life combo =p).

[cophos]

Why isnt Imperial Seal in every single list? It is incredible in this deck, and becomes amazing if you happen to have a chromatic sphere or draw 7... Regardless its better then spoils of the vault which I agree 100% with JD about being unplayable (unless your playing life combo =p).

It's an amazing card in this deck, there really is no reason to avoid it.

[sampling_percus]

You can't grab Naturalize with Living Wish, so we need to find a creature that we can grab, hence cards like Uktabi Orangutan, Hearth Kami and Elvish Scrapper.

What I don't like about the Scrapper is that you need to wait a turn to use him, whereas you can sac the Kami the turn you play him (for no mana if you're destroying a Chalice, but more if you're destroying something else).

Luiggi

Yeah this was one of those realise what you've done 5 mins after you've left the computer moments!

[Komatteru]

Elvish Scrapper is better at blowing up Null Rod, which is really what matters.  Chalice at 1 often doesn't need to be removed, so the only real concern is Null Rod.

Seal is in my list now.  I just had to wait for it to be legal. 

[Luiggi]

Why isnt Imperial Seal in every single list? It is incredible in this deck, and becomes amazing if you happen to have a chromatic sphere or draw 7...

...because this discussion had been dead for a few weeks before Imperial Seal became legal? .

But yes, now that it's legal it obviously belongs in the deck, as JD and others have said.

Luiggi

[Komatteru]

The general list of things to include in the primer is:

1) Role/choice of cards and why blue is not in the deck (this is a huge deal), how my build differs from others (Simister's and Ray Robillard's I used as the starting point), etc.
2) Mulligan Analysis
3) In-game decisions
4) Matchup analysis

Plus some intro material on the evolution of the deck since last year's Gencon and such.  #1 is a huge, huge topic, as is #2.  #3 isn't that hard actually, and #4 is pretty important as well.  It will obviously be of epic length, since I'm writing it.

What sort of things do people want to see?

[Moxlotus]

How to not get stomped by Stax.

[doylehancock]

The general list of things to include in the primer is:

1) Role/choice of cards and why blue is not in the deck (this is a huge deal), how my build differs from others (Simister's and Ray Robillard's I used as the starting point), etc.
2) Mulligan Analysis
3) In-game decisions
4) Matchup analysis

Plus some intro material on the evolution of the deck since last year's Gencon and such.  #1 is a huge, huge topic, as is #2.  #3 isn't that hard actually, and #4 is pretty important as well.  It will obviously be of epic length, since I'm writing it.

What sort of things do people want to see?

I would like to learn how to work around chalice.  I heard you won over chalice at 0 and 1.  Teach us Dizzle, teach us all

[MoxMonkey]

Different Side Board cards that you left out and different cards that work in different metagames like Carpet of Flowers being left out now.  Was that a metagame call?  Other Sideboar dWish targets that are sometimes usfull to think of.

[policehq]

RE: Burning Wish
I think the card would be great for artifact removal, and I think Tinker for Memory Jar would be slightly better than Timetwister because of the synnergy and respective anti-synnergy with Goblin Welder. Regrowth sounds like it would be useful  on occasion, perhaps as often as you're able to grab a Burning Wish and play it.

Deconstruct would actually be a playable one-of in the sideboard again, and it would be rather strong, I think.

RE: Living Wish
I still can't believe that noone is playing Mogg Fanatic in their sideboard. You HAVE to play all of your mana accelerants before Chalice can counter them, and then you have to use them before Gorilla Shaman eats them.

Also, Tolarian Academy is still either useless or overkill. In 100 games of testing, I never have more than two artifacts in play for it to be more effective than Ancient Tomb/City of Traitors, and I believe if I ever did have more than two permanent artifacts on the board, I wouldn't need the extra "colorless" mana acceleration Tolarian Academy could provide, since those artifacts would be Moxen/Sol Ring/Mana Crypt/the like.

RE: Tainted Pact
I'm almost considering (and I know this sounds like blasphemy) replacing Demonic Consultation with this, now that Imperial Seal is legal. Pact's ability to grab restricted cards, no matter whether you know which one you're getting or not, is amazing, and something that Consultation cannot provide.

[Luiggi]

How to not get stomped by Stax.

From what JD has said previously, it seems that Stax is a far easier matchup for Belcher than it is for, say, Long. At Waterbury I played against Stax and won without too much difficulty (though I guess it was a weird Stax/Animal Farm hybrid). At any rate, with Welders of our own it makes the matchup far less bad.

@ JD: those four points sound like the way to go. I'd say include a brief section on SB'ing, but then again you only have about 4 cards that you actually side in, so it shouldn't be so complicated. But definitely add something about SB'ing.

@ poliehq: I agree that Burning Wish might be a good thing to add. With Imperial Seal coming in for Tainted Pact, however, I'm not sure what I'd cut for it anymore. Mogg Fantastic does sound like a good way to kill Shaman, but the problem is that many times your board goes bye-bye the turn Shaman comes down, at which point Wishing for Fanatic is no longer such a spectacular play, because the damage has been done... I would also never cut the Demonic Consultation, since it's absolutely the best way to grab that Belcher you need, or any of the other 4-ofs. Consulting for restricted cards is also not unheard of, and I've won my fair share of games by Consulting for Black Lotus or something similar...

Luiggi

[sampling_percus]

Has belcher ever been run with death wish main, yawg will and mabye a belcher in the sideoboard - sort of DeathBelcher!?! What was the outcome? Was it strong?

[Luiggi]

I'm not on that, though at one point I was trying to brainstorm and see if it was viable... I think what we have now is better, and note that we don't even run tutors like Grim Tutor, because they're too expensive. All our tutoring costs 1 or 2 mana, which makes them much easier to cast, so we can use our Rituals for casting Belchers and such.

Try it out if you're feeling it, but I'm not convinced it will be a positive change for the deck.

Luiggi

[Komatteru]

I tried a couple copies of Grim Tutor a while back and it was fucking awful.  I never had the mana to cast it (BB is hard to get), and when I did, I didn't have enough left to sure what I wanted to tutor for.  Tutoring for Lotus at no net gain of mana is stupid since you're not storming and not playing Will.

[Luiggi]

So when's the big report/primer coming, JD? Your fans are waiting with bated breath, .

Luiggi

[Komatteru]

The report should be submitted sometime tonight.  I need to do one last proofing to make sure everything sounds good.  It took longer to write than I expected.  It's longer than my Origins report by a page, but shorter than my Gencon report.  So that should give you some scope on its level of detail and overall ridiculousness.

I have an outline for the primer and a general idea of what to include, as well as some miscellaneous writing I've done already, but I haven't officially started on it.  I hope to get on it this week.  Maybe I can start tonight if I don't have anything else to do.  It will be quite an exhaustive primer.