Southpaw UB Fish (11th at SCG: Chicago)

[Shean]

This is an article that I submitted for SCG to publish.  I do not know if they will put it up or not, but I thought the community could benefit from it.  Enjoy.

The first version of Southpaw UB Fish was invented by my teammate & roommate, Evan Riley, and was tweaked and tested by Evan & myself.  Here is the most current list:
 
Southpaw UB Fish
By: Evan Riley

4 Underground Sea
4 Polluted Delta
4 Mishra’s Factory
4 Wasteland
1 Strip Mine
1 Island
1 Swamp

1 Black Lotus
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Mox Jet

1 Ancestral Recall
1 Time Walk
4 Standstill
3 Brainstorm

4 Force of Will
3 Daze
3 Duress
2 Chain of Vapor
1 Rushing River
1 Stifle

4 Withered Wretch
4 Dark Confidant
4 Mesmeric Fiend

3 Null Rod

Sideboard:

4 Energy Flux
2 Annul
2 Chain of Vapor
2 Stifle
2 Darkblast
3 Old Man of the Sea

After many matches of testing, our UB Fish deck had the following match win percentages:

Vs. Brian Demars’ Control Slaver: 9-1 (90%)
Vs. Brassman Gifts Belcher / Meandeck Gifts: 9-1 (90%)
Vs. Oath of Druids: 7-3 (70%)
Vs. Vroman UbaStax: 5-5 (50%)
Vs. Chang 5C Stax: 6-4 (60%)
Vs. 5-color Dragon: 8-2 (80%)
Vs. 2-Land Belcher: 7-3 (70%)

After all of the testing, Southpaw UB Fish showed high win percentages against the Blue-based control decks and decent win percentages against Mishra’s Workshop based decks.  The deck uses Withered Wretch to deny any graveyard use and Null Rod alone beats most combo decks.  Dark Confidant is the heart and soul of this deck.  He’s a 2/1 beater with Phyrexian Arena stapled to his head.  Since the deck only runs 5 cards that have a converted casting cost of 3 or higher, the life-loss drawback is a non-issue.  If Dark Confidant ends up killing you while playing this deck, you weren’t going to win that game anyways.

As a side note, I wanted to make sure that everyone is aware of the “trickâ€? using Mesmeric Fiend and Chain of Vapor.  You play Mesmeric Fiend and stack its “comes into playâ€? ability.  With the “comes into playâ€? ability on the stack, you Chain of Vapor your own Mesmeric Fiend back to your hand, which triggers the “leaves playâ€? ability.  You then sacrifice a land to copy the Chain of Vapor to bounce an opponent’s permanent (i.e. Darksteel Colossus).  This is what happens when you do this: First, the Mesmeric Fiend is bounced to your hand.  This triggers the “leaves playâ€? ability that returns the removed card to its owner’s hand.  Fortunately for you, you have stacked Mesmeric Fiend’s “comes into playâ€? ability so you haven’t removed a card yet - hence, nothing happens.  Then you bounce the Darksteel Colossus back to its owner’s hand by sacrificing a land to copy Chain of Vapor.  After all of this, Mesmeric Fiend’s “comes into playâ€? ability resolves and you remove Darksteel Colossus from the game forever.  Plus, you get to replay your Mesmeric Fiend.

Match-up Analysis:

Vs. Control Slaver

This is a very favorable match-up.  UB Fish rolls Control Slaver for a variety of reasons.  Firstly, UB Fish gets 7 Duress effects (3 Duress, 4 Mesmeric Fiend) which usually pull Force of Will or Thirst for Knowledge.  Mana Drain isn’t one of the main concerns since Mana Drain will hardly ever hit a spell with converted casting cost higher than two.  Secondly, UB Fish has 7 “freeâ€? counterspells (3 Daze, 4 Force of Will).  These allow you to resolve your win-conditions before the slower Control Slaver deck gets rolling.  Thirdly, Null Rod is a must-counter for Control Slaver.  If Null Rod hits the board against Control Slaver, they have a really hard time casting spells and/or winning (i.e. Moxen, Pentavus, Triskelion, etc.).  Fourthly, and most importantly, Withered Wretch single-handedly wrecks Control Slaver.  Withered Wretch turns Goblin Welder into a 1/1 with no abilities.  Keep their graveyard empty and it should be smooth sailing.

Sideboarding:
-3 Brainstorm, -1 Rushing River
+2 Stifle, +2 Darkblast

After the sideboard, the match-up gets even better for UB Fish.  Stifle hits fetchlands while Darkblast is capable of killing Goblin Welder every turn.

Vs. Gifts

There’s no mistake about it, this UB Fish deck was made to beat Gifts decks.  For the same reasons noted in the Control Slaver match-up, UB Fish has an awesome match-up against Gifts decks.  Withered Wretch keeps the graveyard empty while beating for 2 damage per turn, Null Rod keeps Gifts low on mana, Dark Confidant keeps your hand full and the Duress effects take away Gifts’ business cards.  Tinker into Darksteel Colossus is your only real concern.  If a Darksteel Colossus hits play, you either have the bounce in your hand or you don’t.  If you don’t have it, you lose, so don’t pitch it to Force of Will unless you have to.

Sideboarding:
-1 Brainstorm, -1 Rushing River
+2 Chain of Vapor

The UB Fish deck is basically pre-boarded for the Gifts match-up, so you only bring in another answer to Darksteel Colossus.

Vs. Oath of Druids

The Oath match-up for UB Fish, along with many other decks, comes down to one thing: how quickly Oath of Druids is played and resolves.  The 7 Duress effects help try to keep Oath of Druids out of their hand, while the 7 free counterspells help keep Oath of Druids from resolving.  If UB Fish can successfully keep Oath of Druids from resolving for 4-5 turns, the game should be theirs.

Sideboarding:
-3 Brainstorm, -1 Null Rod
+2 Annul, +2 Chain of Vapor

After sideboard, the UB Fish deck’s match-up improves.  Brainstorm is less than ideal because Oath of Druids doesn’t really give you much time to dig for an answer, you either have it or you don’t.  Null Rod gets cut by one since Oath of Druids is only 2 mana to cast and it’s hard to keep them below 2 mana.

Vs. Vroman Uba Stax

This is UB Fish’s worst match-up.  Uba Stax abuses Goblin Welder better than any other form of Stax.  With the ability to lock out the UB Fish deck’s draws by welding Uba Mask in and out of play, Dark Confidant is a necessity.  Dark Confidant does not draw a card, it reveals the top card and puts it into your hand.  For this reason, Dark Confidant gets around Uba Mask and helps keep the UB Fish deck going.  To win this match, UB Fish must keep Uba Stax’s Goblin Welders inactive and keep Uba Stax’s graveyard below threshold for Barbarian Ring.  Crucible of Worlds is UB Fish’s least favorite card in any Stax deck.  If need be, let an Uba Mask resolve to be able to counter a Crucible of Worlds.

Sideboarding:
-3 Brainstorm, -3 Null Rod, -1 Rushing River, -3 Duress
+4 Energy Flux, +2 Darkblast, +2 Stifle, +2 Annul

After sideboard, UB Fish has a much better chance of winning.  Stifle counters Wasteland while Darkblast assists Withered Wretch in keeping Goblin Welder offline.  Annul is better than Duress, as you are playing more reactively in this matchup.  Energy Flux is your bomb in any Stax matchup.  Just make sure it doesn’t get pyroblasted.

Vs. Roland Chang’s 5-C Stax

As I said before, Stax is UB Fish’s worst matchup.  UB Fish must get a Dark Confidant into play as quickly as possible.  Crucible of Worlds is still UB Fish’s least favorite card.  This match-up is slightly better than Uba Stax because Chang’s 5-C Stax uses fewer Crucible of Worlds and only 1 Barbarian Ring.  Get a Dark Confidant down as soon as possible and watch out for Tangle Wire.

Sideboarding:
-3 Brainstorm, -3 Null Rod, -1 Rushing River, -1 Duress
+4 Energy Flux, +2 Stifle, +2 Annul

In this match-up, I prefer to keep 2 Duress in the deck to help against Tangle Wire & Crucible of Worlds.  UB Fish doesn’t need Darkblast in this matchup because Chang’s 5-C Stax is significantly weaker with Goblin Welder than Uba Stax.  You must expect the 5-C Stax deck to bring in Choke, so keep a counterspell or Annul handy.

Vs. 5-C Dragon

UB Fish wins this match-up with 2 cards: Withered Wretch and Wasteland.  Don’t use a Wasteland on anything other than a Bazaar of Baghdad.  Dark Confidant and Standstill help UB Fish dig for either of these two cards.  Also, remember that Chain of Vapor works to stop Dragon’s combo with the Dragon’s “comes into playâ€? ability on the stack, leaving the Dragon player with no permanents.  If you can get a Withered Wretch down before Dragon combos out, you win.

Sideboarding:
-3 Null Rod, -3 Brainstorm, -1 Rushing River
+2 Annul, +2 Stifle, +1 Chain of Vapor, +2 Darkblast

Annul, Stifle, and Chain of Vapor serve as extra combo-hate out of the sideboard.  Darkblast is used to make sure that Xantid Swarm doesn’t prevent you from countering the combo.  Honestly, Xantid Swarm doesn’t matter all that much because UB Fish uses Withered Wretch.

Vs. 2-Land Belcher

Just like the other combo match-ups, it comes down to the same issue: UB Fish must resolve one of its silver-bullets before the combo deck goes off.  Null Rod is the MVP in this match-up, as it shuts off almost 50% of Belcher’s deck, plus Goblin Charbelcher itself.  Withered Wretch ensures that Goblin Welder is a dead card.  If and when the Belcher deck uses Land Grant, make sure you look at its hand and counter the Land Grant if it is their only source of mana (or if it looks like they will cast Duress).  Countering Land Grant is almost always better than countering the spell they play off the land because you prevent Belcher from having the recurring mana it needs.

Sideboarding:
-2 Chain of Vapor, -1 Rushing River, -3 Brainstorm
+2 Annul, +2 Darkblast, +2 Stifle

Post-sideboard, the match-up doesn’t change much.  Annul helps keep Goblin Charbelcher off the table, Darkblast kills Goblin Welder and Xantid Swarm and Stifle buys an extra turn by countering the Goblin Charbelcher activation if need be.

I hope this has convinced some people that UB Fish is a very viable Fish archetype, and that Dark Confidant is the best card drawing engine that Fish could ask for.  Ninja of the Deep Hours is good, but he has to swing through to get the draw.  Dark Confidant just sits there and looks sexy.

-Mike Shean

[Das_Boot]

It seems like Rod is a gigantic bomb, so why not play 4?
Can you give us a mini-report on the performance, specifically the games you lost?
Specifically, what problems do you think the deck in the form you have it has?
Did running only 22 mana sources including Strips and Factories hurt you during the tournament?
It seems like the deck is really short on bodies compared to other UB Fish lists *and* doesn't play Jitte or Negator, so are you having any problems closing games out?
Why no Demonic Consultation?
Why the singleton Rushing River?
It seems like Pithing Needle is better at shutting off Welders than Darkblast, is extremely versatile, performing a huge variety of tasks in-game, can with a number of problem cards like Barbarian Ring, *and* pretty much auto-wins against Dragon and Belcher.  Why no SB slots?

Um, yeah.  That's a lot of questions.  I'm going to make myself sto pfor now.

[austinnadz]

I like the looks of this deck.

But I think that one of the best things fish can do is play cards under standstill, right? U/R Gay fish could essentially do that with faerie conclaves, factories, and cloud of faeries cast multiple times then tossing a standstill down. but here it just looks like you cast a standstill and you can't play under it like u/w fish can with aether vial.

also, how does your u/w fish matchup look?

[Cross]

I don't think your win percentages are correct. I think your deck has potential, but you've only played ten games against each deck, and that ten doesn't specify the amount of games played with or without sideboard.

The biggest post-sideboard threat to fish is pyroclasm, and it seems like this deck is waiting for one to wreck it. You run no bebs in your board, besides hitting it with duress or forcing it it seems like you would want to be overprepared for it.

With standstill, confdant, time walk and ancestral, brainstorm seems unnecessary. Also, dark confidant + force of will = very bad. 5 damage for 1 card is really unnecesary, thus the issue with confidant.

[Dante]

It seems like Pithing Needle .... *and* pretty much auto-wins against Dragon and Belcher.  Why no SB slots?

First off, Pithing Needle only wins against an unprepared Dragon opponent playing an outdated list.  It does slow you down, but it's not game over by any stretch of the imagination.  I had a turn 1 or 2 Pithing Needle played against me at SCG Chicago this past weekend in 6 games and I only lost one of those games.

Some feedback on this deck - you really must get the Wretch in play turn 1 or 2 vs Dragon and even that alone is not enough.  I played against Evan in round 6.  I won Game 1 on turn 2.  Game 2 he played a first turn Lotus, Land, Null Rod, Withered Wretch.  If he had just played the Wretch, I could have played around his Dazes and Wretch to win.  Game 3, I went first and dropped a first turn bazaar - discarding Dragon, hellkite, and squee, along with playing a Mox.  Again he dropped Lotus, land, null rod, wretch.  If he hadn't dropped the null rod, I would have won next turn, even with a land open for the wretch because I had a second dragon in hand, two animates, and I topdecked my lotus and (and had an extra disruption spell that would have been the same) (so I could have cast animate, he removes dragon, I drop second dragon with 3 mana left to cast animate and pay for daze).

My point was that with proper disruption from Dragon and playing things instant speed (Intuition, Necromancy, etc) like one should, you can get around just a wretch.  This deck needs a second hard piece of disruption fast like Evan had the two games.   The third game would have been mine minus the null rod.  Game two would have been closer, but I had two moxes negated there.

Just some actual feedback on this matchup from this past weekend.

[Das_Boot]

Also, dark confidant + force of will = very bad. 5 damage for 1 card is really unnecesary, thus the issue with confidant.

Life is one of the most unused resource.  Leaving aside the issue that the deck can trade 5 life for a card a lot of the time, why would you not play a card as good as this one because of the 1/15 chance of dealing 5 damage to yourself during your upkeep?  Life points are almost irrelevant until you hit 0.  There is no issue with Confidant; his ability remains one of the strong points of the deck.  How strong he is is one of the reasons I am surprised at Standstill as a 4-of there.  It seems like the deck would benefit from some more substance to it, something like Jitte or something, if not over Standstill, than over Brainstorm at least.  If the blue card number is the problem, then Shadow of Doubt or more Stifle seem better.

@Dante:  What do you mean by Needle only winning against an unprepared list?

[Moxlotus]

I really don't see how this deck would beat Oath.  Your strategy relies on creatures.  Oath has plenty of ways to find Oath, and then protect it from disruption.  Also Chain of Vapors don't do shit if your opponent has Iridescent/Pristine/Ancient Hydra/Trike.

[Dante]

@Dante:  What do you mean by Needle only winning against an unprepared list?

I mean that Compulsion is too slow and crap in Dragon right now in the US/Canada metagame, so you need different ways to get your shit in the graveyard.  Obviously Bazaar plays a key role in this and people know it.  If you're going to only rely on Bazaar and have no outs to a resolved Pithing Needle (naming Bazaar) to get your stuff into the graveyard (other than Intuitioning twice), then you either sideboard badly, have a poor build, or both.

[Prometheon]

The deck looks solid, but appears like it would take forever to kill. I agree with the Brainstorms looking a little unneccessary, and would potentially cut them for more threats. The question is 'what?' Negator is too risky, without vials, ninja isn't very good, and Dimir Guildmage, while cool, doesn't really exite me. Any ideas?

[MoxMonkey]

You may have tested Against Slaver for a 90% win but maybe your not playing Slaver right.  I dont see this Beating Slaver anymore than 60% of the time.  I see Null Rods and Wretchs but thats 7 cards.  You have the same number of counters as U/r Fish with the graveyard hate instead of Welder hate ie Wretch/Mancer.  U/r with Slaver was a 60-40 if your going 90/10 with Slaver either the slaver player is terrible or your 10 hands are just ridiculous and god like.  Im not saying the deck doesn't have a good matchup before you say that but going 90/10 with Slaver is not possible in my mind.  I have played vs decks like this and Ive never seen it go that bad for me.

[Elric]

Keep in mind that, statistically, 10 games is an exceedingly small sample.  This doesn’t count whether the games were sideboarded, exactly what builds you used, how you played the decks, how good the people were who were playing the decks, etc.

Remember the winner’s curse: the deck that you think is the best based on testing is the one that you are most likely to have overestimated.  That doesn’t mean that you shouldn’t play the deck that you think is best from testing; you should.  It just means that you shouldn’t assume that your current results are a particularly good predictor of future events.

[Prometheon]

I'm just throwing some ideas out there for some uses for the Brainstorm/Standstill slots that also aid in quickening the beatdown/establishing more control:

Rootwater Thief
Serendib Efreet
Fledgeling Djinn
Gilded Drake
Waterfront Bouncer

[Das_Boot]

My short list of cards I would consider to fill the Brainstorm slots:
Bouncer
Thief
Negator
Jitte
or, my favorite: 1 Duress 1 Null Rod 1 Demonic Consultation.

[Prometheon]

Jitte + Null Rod + 12 Creatures=not tech

[AmbivalentDuck]

The Null Rods themselves could be cut.  The Brainstorms could then be more useful as Sensei's Divining Tops.   This would also allow the Factories block as 3/3's, let you include Jitte, and let you run more Moxen to turn the Dazes into Mana Leaks/get your Fiends and Confidants down one turn faster.

I could easily see this beating Slaver with regularity.  Slaver's only real way of winning against this deck is Tinkering out a Trike or Pentavus.  That means the whole game comes down to one counter battle over 1 Tinker.  Since you're outdrawing them 2 to 1 you'd have a good shot at stopping it.  That said, 90% seems a bit high against anything that can go mox, mox, tinker.  It seems like you'd have more serious issues than other Fish builds if they activate a slaver, too.

One Standstill should instead be a Demonic Consultation. 

Also, you're going to get raped by other/better aggro.  Statistics for Fish, FCG, and Workshop Aggro were absent. Is that why?

[Whatever Works]

Not sure how null rod is better then vial right now. Considering that the decks that the card used to be good against... now use it themselves.

If Stax runs Null Rod... Fish cannot... Also null rod isnt even that could in the current metagame considering less CS, More stax, more oath... I will post my waterbury list this afternoon (finally sinse I dont thnk i will play it at next event).

[JigglyPuff]

1. Kyle leith is a stalling newb ( sry kyle)

2. Null rod is house...i believe the best decks in the format is anything playing gifts and Stax...

3. Oath should'nt lose to fish...so no null rods and i'd probably play annul main....How it is bad, seeing  how it counters all the broken artifacts and enchantments

4. kyle got lucky day two and i felt bad that our team scrubbed out(WW, NOT OFF TWICE!!)

5. Vial is bad right now anyway....dont see alot of fishing taking top8 spots....

6. Kyle leith is a stalling newb...

[Shean]

The above numbers (i.e. 9/10 vs. Control Slaver) are matches tested.  either UB Fish won 2-0 or 2-1, it doesn't matter.  They won the match.  Try the deck yourself against it and see how it goes.  Neither Control Slaver nor Gifts have a chance against this deck.  This deck was manufactured to beat blue contol decks that use the graveyard.  Test it.

[MoxMonkey]

Ill see if it gets picked up but Ive played vs decks built to Just beat Slaver and they didn't even have a 9/10 match I think your Slaver player is making a lot of stupid mistakes but if you test it like that go with it.  I have yet to see a deck that goes above 60 vs Slaver no matter how it was built.  Or maybe its just I know how Slaver works and can get out of stupid spots.

[Prometheon]

I just have to say that I was testing this deck today with a few minor changes (Waterfront Bouncers instead of Brainstorm, a few other minor tweaks).
I played primarily against Oath and Slaver, and I must say that Vial is frigging retarded in this deck. I know it conflicts with Null Rod, but some serious should be done to see if this is worth it. Null Rod is amazing in this deck, but Vial is also nuts. Give it a whirl and see.

EDIT: Also, I'm having serious difficulties getting to double black with this mana-base. I've always been in the mindset that 5 wastes and 4 factories running 2 colors is suicide, but Vial would help this as well. Perhaps cutting the 2 basics for 2 Watery Graves or 2 Underground Rivers? Also, with the changes I made, I often don't have a blue card to pitch to force, but that's just a problem with my rough build I think.

[Silvios]

The main problem I see with this deck is that it's a "Fish" build, which generally speaking means quick, efficient creatures to beat and disrupt.  This build just doesn't seem to have enough beats.  I would probably consider Rootwater Thief, Erayo, Ninja of the Deep Hours, or ANYTHING else to have more creatures - at least 16-20.  Otherwise you disrupt a little and play a sub-par creature to your opponent's house, especially against something like Oath, where 1 or 2 bad creatures on the board makes them smile, as opposed to 3-5 decent creatures that can match their swings.

[Evilkin]

I kind of lost track on which thread this was I was posting in, so congrats on the 11th place in Chicago.  Your deck looks strong and these are only very minor suggestions/ideas I have for maybe making a few weaker matches a bit stronger.  I've been recently trying to figure out a viable version of U/B that I can feel comfortable with and your deck looks pretty solid.  Feel free to give any ideas a try.

I always thought Fish's main beaters were the Mishra's Factories?  Why does no one count those??  To me this deck has 16 beaters.  I also think any Fish builds today should still be using/abusing at least 2 copies of Crucible of Worlds in the main deck.  I know more people are playing with Basics, but this card is still a huge bomb for any deck.  (Recurring Blockers/Creatures, Wastelands and Thinning the deck are pretty nice advantages).   

Recommended Changes:

-3 Brainstorm (Deck is way too redundant + I think you're getting greedy here.  Or maybe you just like easy sideboarding decisions  ), -1 Stifle (Random, terrible top deck.).
+2 Crucible of Worlds (Your even running Lotus and 2x Mox to make this a turn 1 or 2 decent play.  Not to mention it can be key to defeating Stax and massively improves your match-up in that department).  The key to the Stax match can come down to who resolves the first 1 of these.
+2 other cards.. well, I'd probably change the deck slightly in it's creature content... -->see below.
I'm still loving the Cloud of Faeries...  I'd have to try -1 Confidant, -1 Wretch, +4 Cloud of Faeries.  I'd at least cut 1 Wretch though since double black is not your friend and this is likely not a common turn 2 drop.

Your mana base seems a little light, but I guess it seems to work for you in playtesting.   

Mana: (24)

3x Underground Sea
4x Polluted Delta
1x Flooded Strand
3x Island
1x Swamp
4x Mishra's Factories
4x Wasteland
1x Strip Mine
1x Black Lotus
1x Mox Jet
1x Mox Sapphire

Creatures: (14)

4x Cloud of Faeries (or -1, +1 Confidant.  These would be your only critters with any evasion if you should include them).
4x Mesmeric Fiend
3x Withered Wretch
3x Dark Confidant

Disruption: (15)

4x Force of Will
3x Daze
3x Duress
3x Null Rod
2x Chain of Vapor

Draw/Broken: (8)

4x Standstill
2x Crucible of Worlds
1x Ancestral Recall
1x Time Walk

Anyways, love or hate my minor suggestions, I think you should test out CoW in place of Brainstorms.

Btw, I really like the look of the deck and your Mesmeric Fiend tech is mint!

[AmbivalentDuck]

CoF?  That's suboptimal at best.  Even Plaguebearer is almost strictly better.

[Prometheon]

Yeah, I'm not feeling the Fairey love either. They rock hard with Standstill, but other than that, meh.

[Evilkin]

Well, CoF is just my preference.  Maybe they do suck now, but I like dropping multiple permanents on the same turn.  That slot could be replaced with 3x of any other 1 or 2cc drop as well.  I can see a lot of problems getting the Wretch out with his current mana base though.  I might even consider replacing those with Nazumi Graverobbers.

[Prometheon]

Nezumi Graverobber is much MUCH worse than Wretch. And some good (and almost srictly better in my opinion) replacements for CoF have already been discussed and include Bouncer, Rootwater Thief and Gilded Drake.

[vroman]

nezumi shortfang absolutely hoses ubastax. seriously Ive lost to mono black type 2 rat deck over and over. flipped shortfang is 6 damage a turn under uba.

[Shean]

Thanks for all the input everyone.

Ill see if it gets picked up but Ive played vs decks built to Just beat Slaver and they didn't even have a 9/10 match I think your Slaver player is making a lot of stupid mistakes but if you test it like that go with it. I have yet to see a deck that goes above 60 vs Slaver no matter how it was built. Or maybe its just I know how Slaver works and can get out of stupid spots.

Have you tested this match up?  Its hardly even a game.  CS gets its ass kicked without:

I could easily see this beating Slaver with regularity. Slaver's only real way of winning against this deck is Tinkering out a Trike or Pentavus. That means the whole game comes down to one counter battle over 1 Tinker.

Also, you're going to get raped by other/better aggro. Statistics for Fish, FCG, and Workshop Aggro were absent. Is that why?

No, that's not why the statistics were absent.  The deck has a problem with other fish builds (hence the 3 Old Man of the Sea + 2 Darkblasts in the SB).  As for FCG & Workshop Aggro, those are also matchups you are not fond of.

Then again, how many of those decks were at SCG: Chicago compared to Stax, Gifts, Dragon & Control Slaver (I left Oath out of that list because we didn't expect to see that much of it - we were wrong there).  I went through the 112 decklists for SCG: Chicago and got these metagame results:

Stax (19 players)
Gifts (16 players)
Control Slaver (9 players)
Dragon (6 players)
Workshop Aggro (5 players)
FCG (3 players)
U/W Fish (3 players)

or

Stax (16.96% of metagame)
Gifts (14.29% of metagame)
Control Slaver (8.04% of metagame)
Dragon (5.36% of metagame)
Workshop Aggro (4.46% of metagame)
FCG (2.68% of metagame)
U/W Fish (2.68% of metagame)

Using these metagame percentages, I left out 9.82% of the metagame.  I believe that posting match up analysis for roughly 90% the metagame is sufficient.  Especially since at least 10% of every metagame consists of rogue or unpopular decks.  This is not to say that the rogue or unpopular decks are bad decks to play - this is a thread about my rogue deck - but, you can never test 100% of a metagame.  This is why those matches were not posted.

Recommended Changes:

-3 Brainstorm (Deck is way too redundant + I think you're getting greedy here.  Or maybe you just like easy sideboarding decisions  ), -1 Stifle (Random, terrible top deck.).
+2 Crucible of Worlds (Your even running Lotus and 2x Mox to make this a turn 1 or 2 decent play.  Not to mention it can be key to defeating Stax and massively improves your match-up in that department).  The key to the Stax match can come down to who resolves the first 1 of these.
+2 other cards.. well, I'd probably change the deck slightly in it's creature content... -->see below.
I'm still loving the Cloud of Faeries...  I'd have to try -1 Confidant, -1 Wretch, +4 Cloud of Faeries.  I'd at least cut 1 Wretch though since double black is not your friend and this is likely not a common turn 2 drop.

Mainly, Brainstorm is pitched to Force of Will.  I'm not saying that pitching it to Force of Will is its only use, I'm saying it's one of the main uses.  However, because of Dark Confidant and Standstill, you rarely need to dig for an answer.  Hence, you hold the Brainstorm until you need a card to pitch to Force of Will.  Brainstorm also lets you dig 6 cards deep after a Standstill breaks.  It looks good with Dark Confidant when you put two lands back on top and take 0 damage from Dark Confidant's ability.

Crucible of Worlds is not what the deck wants.  True, the deck's worst card in Stax is Crucible, but the 4 Energy Flux out of the SB take care of all artifacts at the same time.

Cloud of Faeries is a decent card, but doesn't belong in this build.  We originally had Spiketail Hatchling in Mesmeric Fiend's slot, but decided that Spiketail Hatchling is too situational.  Mesmeric Fiend always gets a card from their hand.  Spiketail Hatchling is only relevant when they don't have the extra 1 mana (or 2 mana if you have Daze).  Could of Faeries is only relevant when you want to follow it with another threat.  Cloud of Faeries is a 1/1 Flying creature with no abilities.  True, you get to untap two lands after playing the Faeries, but how does Cloud of Faeries help you disrupt your opponent?  The deck does not have a problem killing the opponent after it has played its disruption.  The deck wants to disrupt its opponent more than kill its opponent and that is precisely why Cloud of Faeries is not in the deck.

I would never reccomend cutting a Dark Confidant.  He is the heart of the deck.

Also, I'm having serious difficulties getting to double black with this mana-base. I've always been in the mindset that 5 wastes and 4 factories running 2 colors is suicide, but Vial would help this as well. Perhaps cutting the 2 basics for 2 Watery Graves or 2 Underground Rivers? Also, with the changes I made, I often don't have a blue card to pitch to force, but that's just a problem with my rough build I think.

In our testing, the mana base does have some problems.  The double black can be a pain sometimes, but usually there is something else you can do.  I don't reccomend cutting a Withered Wretch because of it's high potency against Goblin Welder / Yawgmoth's Will.

As for the Aether Vial vs. Null Rod conversation:  I like Aether Vial.  It definitely adds more power to your deck, but worsens your Combo & Control Slaver matchups.  In our build, the mana denial achieved from Null Rod is key.  It allows you to slow down your opponent and follow with Dark Confidant (to speed you up) or Mesmeric Fiend (to slow them down more).  Null Rod singlehandedly houses 75% of combo decks.  Combined with Withered Wretch and bounce spells for Dragon, you should win almost every match against Combo decks.

As for the blue card to pitch to Force of Will, read above where I talk about Brainstorm.  When you do this:

My short list of cards I would consider to fill the Brainstorm slots:
Bouncer
Thief
Negator
Jitte
or, my favorite: 1 Duress 1 Null Rod 1 Demonic Consultation.

You run into this:

Also, with the changes I made, I often don't have a blue card to pitch to force, but that's just a problem with my rough build I think.

The deck has a very high number of black cards.  When you replace blue cards with black or artifact cards, the number of blue cards to pitch to Force of Will dwindle.  I believe that the current list has the lowest number of blue cards that I would consider running.  Look at it this way:

Cards to pitch to Force of Will:

1 Ancestral Recall
1 Time Walk
4 Standstill
3 Daze
3 Brainstorm
2 Chain of Vapor
1 Rushing River
1 Stifle

You currently have 16 blue cards other than Force of Will.  Unfortunately, you never want to pitch Ancestral Recall or Time Walk.  Now you are down to 14 blue cards to pitch to Force of Will.  If you replace Brainstorm with black or artifact cards, you have 11 blue cards to pitch to Force of Will.  Now, for example, say you are playing against Gifts or Oath, which means you don't want to pitch a bounce spell to Force of Will.  So against Gifts or Oath, you are now down to 8 blue cards to pitch to Force of Will if you cut the Brainstorms.  These are the reasons that Brainstorm is in the deck.

As a side note, this deck is the only deck that I pitch Brainstorm to Force of Will rather than casting Brainstorm to find another blue card.

nezumi shortfang absolutely hoses ubastax. seriously Ive lost to mono black type 2 rat deck over and over. flipped shortfang is 6 damage a turn under uba.

We were looking at Nezumi Shortfang initially, but his activation cost of 1B is too mana intensive (especially the black mana).  Sure, you can play Nezumi Shortfang and make them discard a card every turn for the rest of the game (starting next turn), but the deck would rather play Mesmeric Fiend (which causes discard immediately) and follow it up with another threat that disrupts the opponent immediately.

After more testing, etc., these are the changes that I suggest:

Maindeck:

-1 Mishra's Factory
+1 Watery Grave

-1 Rushing River
+1 Waterfront Bouncer

Sideboard:
-2 Chain of Vapor
+1 Annul
+1 Waterfront Bouncer

I'm also currently looking for a way to fit the 4th Duress in the sideboard, but I'm not 100% sure that the deck needs it.

[Sean Ryan]

What do you gain by running black over white?  More draw?  Is that really worth it? 

Black does nothing to improve the Stax or Oath matchup, which is what you need to focus on beating.  This is where white really shines, giving you all the tools to help these matchups. 

Both U/B and U/W have a good game against Giftz and Control Slaver.

 Against combo, I have found u/w Fish to have good game with Mage/Rod/FOW/Daze/Waste/ect...getting better games 2&3.  Basically, Duress is good but is not needed in the u/w version.


Check out this build:

4 Men
4 Mage
3 Bouncer
3 Theif
2 Ninja
2 Kataki

4 FOW
3 Daze
1 Stiffle
3 Null Rod
2-3 StP

3-4 standstill
1 Ancestral Recall
1 Timewalk

23: Mana Sources

SB: Options
Sacred Ground
EFlux
Seal o cleansing
Ray o Revelation
StP
Crucible
Old man
Null Rod
A. Lab
Orim's chant
Stiffle


While I respect your inovation, u/w Fish seems strictly superior.

Sean

[Dante]

As for the Aether Vial vs. Null Rod conversation:  I like Aether Vial.  It definitely adds more power to your deck, but worsens your Combo & Control Slaver matchups.  In our build, the mana denial achieved from Null Rod is key.  It allows you to slow down your opponent and follow with Dark Confidant (to speed you up) or Mesmeric Fiend (to slow them down more).  Null Rod singlehandedly houses 75% of combo decks.  Combined with Withered Wretch and bounce spells for Dragon, you should win almost every match against Combo decks.

Totally agreed - I played against Evan at SCG (I was running 5c Dragon) in round 6.  Evan opened both game 2 and 3 with Lotus, land -> Withered Wretch, Null Rod.  If either of those games, Null Rod was something else (any other card, even Duress or Force), I would have won the next turn, even with holding a mana open for Withered Wretch and playing through a Daze.  The null rod won him that match.  Sitting on the other side of the table playing Dragon or any other faster combo-ish deck, I'd rather see Vial than Null Rod.

My experience is that decks like this need the Null Rods to slow down the faster decks in order to bring the right disruption online.  Null Rod should definitely NOT be replaced with anything right now if you're going to play this deck.