[Predictions] GP: Lille (Non-Contest)

[Anusien]

I just want to get a feel for what people expect the meta to be like.  How much Goblins, Threshold and BW Confidant do you expect?  Which combo decks will be there and how will they perform.  What do you think the T8 will look like?

My thoughts.  Assuming the Japanese don't show up, I'm expecting a field very similar to Philly, but with a few changes.  I know the Europeans have been testing some off the wall stuff, and they've had more time to prepare. Goblins will be about 25% of the field, and I would not be surprised if it steals a few T8 spos (I'm guessing 2).  I don't think enough European players are going to be playing 3C Threshold or be good enough with it; not only do Aggro-Control decks in that theme seem to be primarily an American trend, but I expect European players to be playing better combo and control decks.  However, I'm predicting 1 UGW Threshold deck simply because it would be easy for a good player with 3 byes to pick it up and go 6-0 Day One with it.

The Europeans have excellent control players, and I'm expecting two European Tog players.  One of those will probably be a pure combo-style Dredge Tog build, and I'm expecting Antoine and Olivier to build a brutal control build of Tog and Antoine to win with it (because Olivier will be playing a combo deck).  I'm also expecting a few European innovations on IGG, Aluren and Flame Vault to T8.

[Bardo]

I'm expecting less aggro (i.e. Goblins) and more control, aggro-control, and considerably more combo.

But I disagree with you on your 3cThreshold assessment. For whatever reason, the Germans freaking love Threshold and many of them have been getting better with that deck in the burgeoning Legacy scene over there. The results at morphling.de are a testament to that. Then there are people like Chris Flaaten who have been playing this deck for a long time and will do well with it. [Assuming he's going and that he's playing Thesh.]

Also, a month after being published, Part 4 of my Threshold primer is still one of the post popular articles at SCG (it had been 1 for about a week until yesterday -- ouch: it's gone today , wtf?), so I wouldn't be surprised to see much more of that deck in the event than at Philly.

How it will do is another matter.

On a side note, I'd love to see Tog do well. I've been really pleased with some of my newer lists but I'd appreciate seeing one place well in a large event such as a GP.

[Matt]

Rizzo's deck reportedly can go seriously berserk seriously fast. However, it seems like it would seriously pack it in to a Tormod's Crypt, and of course High Tide. C'est la vie!

[UR]

If the tournaments I've played in are any indication there will be quite a lot of WB Deadguy Ale. Some tournaments it was around 20%. I'm not expecting it will be that much at the GP, but I suspect it will get played a lot.

Psychatog also seems popular enough to warrant being mentioned. Something I really didn't expect...