SCG 2x Tournament Attendance Predictions.

[Nefarias]

There has never really been a Vintage tournament quite like the show SCG is putting on next weekend. So, how many people do you actually think are going to show up for this?

I don't have exact numbers, but from memory (and correct me if I'm wrong), consider the following:

1. All of the SCG Richmond tounreys have had the worst turnout of the series. One can be fully blamed on terrible weather, which only drew about 50 people, but others only had like 70. I think the high for the city is around 110. Syracuse/Rochester and Chicago usually have 120-140.

2. The high for Vintage turnouts in North America is around the 180-200 mark, reached by a couple of Waterburies and the Vintage Champs at GenCon. The typical Waterburies have often been around 150.

3. European events, including the French Champs, reached over 300. Italian tournaments have often reached 200.

4. Day two events, tried at Klown's and Waterburies, usually have significantly less participation, though also significantly less prizes. I believe the high for a Day 2 Waterbury Mox is around 70.

With that in mind, how many people are going to show next weekend? Will Day Two show a considerable drop-off in attendance from Day One?

[jpmeyer]

150.  This tourney is also not on the same day as a prerelease, so that should boost attendance above what it usually is for a Richmond.

[MoxMonkey]

Be Lucky to hit around 120.

[Juggernaut GO]

I know I want to play 9 swiss rounds both days, but the possiblity of that happening is low.

[Jacob Orlove]

It doesn't matter how many people show up; the sheer number of talented players driving/flying in is going to make this the most difficult vintage event in recent memory.

[Komatteru]

180 is my guess.  About the size of a healthy Waterbury (or at least the last couple).  Player quality will indeed be much higher than any event as of late.  I think the attendance for both days will be about the same, as people coming from afar (myself included) are coming primarily because this is a 2 day event.

[Moxlotus]

Whatever the attendance of the very first SCG P9 event was +25.  A lot of people are flying/driving down to this just like the first one.  In addition, I know of a few carloads of people that are going down this time that didn't the first time.

[Lou]

The fact that this is a two day event is the only reason I am going.  Myself and Bob will be on the road Wednesday night, for our 2000 mile drive one way there.  This event is going to be fucking amazing, and I for one can not wait.  I'll go ahead and start some shit talking while I am here.  Be prepared to be owned at the event, and get fucked up afterwards.  All it will take is a fat chronic blunt!

[Tha Gunslinga]

I'm hoping it'll be in the 150-180 range.  ICBM missed out on the first one, but we will be taking home power this time.

[oldbsturgeon]

i really hope it is big too. i have been at the past 2 richmonds the the one in sept was pathetic. i believe it was 56 players or something like that. 2 days really helps out a lot. i know because of that a few people where i live in WV will be going. usually i am left by myself and go with a friend that lives close to richmond but it will be a nice change to see more familiar faces.
what i would really like though is to meet and talk to some people that post on here all the time. hopefully that will happen. i somewhat agree with travis about wanting more rounds, but 9? i don't even want to think about playing 9 rounds then possibly more hopefully.

[Dante]

it's going to be so big, no one even bothered to put it on the TMD calendar.

[Smmenen]

Whatever the attendance of the very first SCG P9 event was +25.  A lot of people are flying/driving down to this just like the first one.  In addition, I know of a few carloads of people that are going down this time that didn't the first time.

The original one has 167 players.

I think that is a good guestimate.  I would say between 140 and 210 with probably 175 or so the likely turn out.

[Whatever Works]

The addition of a day 2 to waterbury didnt really increase attendence, but in this case I believe it will. What seperates this from waterbury for change in attendence? Waterbury is always great regardless of how you do... I cant say that about SCG events that for some reason just arent as fun (just my opinion not going to argue it).

Attendence I am guessing will be about 140ish. The reason the attendence wont be waterbury like is purely the location. Virginia just isnt convienent. The hotbeds of type 1 are NE area... and the omfg its freezing great lake states... not the south even though there were a few former short bus members there etc.

I am not sure why people are talking about an increased player quality for this event. The quality of type 1 events recently have been extremely high. The formats improvement + proxies have completely 100% eliminated the oppertunity for a person to get to 2-0 by playing against a type 2 deck round 1 and Sui black underworld dreams deck round 2... Player quality at waterbury is very high... Quality at the miserable baldwinsville tourney was high... The tournement in virginia will be high... the only true affect of player quality is dependent on how many locals show up netdecking w/o playtesting... Or in that matter how many respectable players netdeck w/o testing... Which to my knowledge is actually suprisingly high.

Kyle L

[Clown of Tresserhorn]

I'm thinking like 125-150.

At GenCon, we BARELY broke 100. Granted, it was sanctioned, but it's quite possibly the most fun I've ever had playing magic.

I figure all the dedicated and talented type 1 players will make it out to this one, while the more casual players won't. Like Orlove said, these tournaments will have an INSANE amount of good players.

Hope to see everyone there!

-Bob

[Smmenen]

I'm thinking like 125-150.

At GenCon, we BARELY broke 100. Granted, it was sanctioned, but it's quite possibly the most fun I've ever had playing magic.

I figure all the dedicated and talented type 1 players will make it out to this one, while the more casual players won't. Like Orlove said, these tournaments will have an INSANE amount of good players.

Hope to see everyone there!

-Bob

Actually Gencon was like 127.

[Komatteru]

Or in that matter how many respectable players netdeck w/o testing... Which to my knowledge is actually suprisingly high.

Only occasionally.  And I can usually make it work too. 

Actually Gencon was like 127.

Exactly 127 in fact.

[Evenpence]

250+  SATURDAY
200+  SUNDAY

[sa17dk]

One Thousand.

 

[Whatever Works]

250+  SATURDAY
200+  SUNDAY

These are the kind of expectations that make tournement organizers increase prize structure... Guarantee it... Then not give it away... Just like Baldswinville... Ack dont want to even think about the imaginary mox jet that I should be owning right now.

[Juggernaut GO]

Just pretend you weren't even in the top 8 anyway Kyle, because because the judge gave your final round opponent a game loss right when he resolved will because he wasn't keeping track of his life.

new york is dead to me.

[Whatever Works]

Just pretend you weren't even in the top 8 anyway Kyle, because because the judge gave your final round opponent a game loss right when he resolved will because he wasn't keeping track of his life.

new york is dead to me.

I had FoW + Reb in hand. And everyone I talked to including my opponent agreed that I would have won the game regardless (remember I had darsteel Collossus + welder, and his yard was bad.)

You could get on me about tricking my opponent to scooping to his own tendrils of agony on turn 5 of extra turns, because he didnt understand state based effects.

[Cross]

You had force of will, but no blue card, and you can't reb yawg's.

I would expect the attendance to be about 150, as a I know a bunch of people are not going. Something came up, and I cannot go, but good luck to everyone who does.

[Kowal]

Cross not going makes things very difficult for yours truly to finance the trip.  I still plan on going, but there's a possibility it doesn't happen now.

[Harkius]

The fact that this is a two day event is the only reason I am going.  Myself and Bob will be on the road Wednesday night, for our 2000 mile drive one way there.  This event is going to be fucking amazing, and I for one can not wait.  I'll go ahead and start some shit talking while I am here.  Be prepared to be owned at the event, and get fucked up afterwards.  All it will take is a fat chronic blunt!

You win the prize for being craziest motivated...

I've done this trip. It SUCKS! MapQuest suggests that it is like 26 hours or something like that, but it is really more like two days. Without stopping for more than like 6-7 hours the whole way. It sucks.

Have fun.

Harkius

[forests failed you]

Day one 225
Day two 200