[play scenario #2] ICBM Oath vs Burning Slaver

[Smmenen]

Just a thought.  IF the proper role is control in the slaver match, then I still think one should consider only turn one Brainstorm or turn one duress as the right play.

I find this a puzzling statement Steve. How is playing the Brainstorm playing the "control deck"? You have control elements in hand already (Duress turn 1, which will drop in strength if saved until turn 2+, along with CotV). I'd figure you'd want to save the Brainstorm until the last possible minute and play it only if you have no other business. There's a big difference between playing BS right away and drawing your next turn's card and then playing BS.

Since we are on the play, you'll be able to cast turn two Thirst if you Brainstorm on turn one.  But if you wait, you'll have to fight Drain to resolve your Thirst.  It also ensures that you dig as deeply and as quickly as possible as soon as possible.  Thus the mana development and card quality is optimized immediately.  Also, it permits you to play turn two Duress + Oath, if you decide that is the superior play.  Then your subsequent Thirst will help you find Orchard more quickly. 

I don't think these things are cut and dried, but its important to explore the advantages and drawbacks of each option.  I think that the Chalice on turn one permits a semblance of control that does not require one to Duress on turn one. 

[MuzzonoAmi]

I think Dan's second option is correct. Delta-> Sea, Duress. That's all that's certian. If they've got Moxen, drop Pearl, Chalice for 0, pass the turn. This lets you Brainstorm turn 2 and makes it very unlikely that they'll have an answer to Oath/gas to fight Oath if you find a green source in your next 4 cards. Granted, they could topdeck Force, but that's all that will stop you if you get green, since you've effectively eliminated the Slaver route and likely have at least a stopgap measure to let you live long enough for Angel beats to win the game. The scariest thing that can happen in this scenario is that you don't get a green source, another Brainstorm, Ancestral, or a Tutor in your top 4, which is something very unlikely.

[Shock Wave]

See, the problem with these scenarios is that they are all very vain attempts at discovering what the "right play" is. You don't know what the right play is in this scenario because A) there is no board position to assess B) you don't know what is in your opponent's hand. Therefore, there is only *1* correct play in this scenario, regardless of what the outcome is: Sea, Duress. From there, you can make the "right decision" for that particular moment. As soon as the game state changes, the correct play changes.

[Darkenslight]

I say Delta -> USea, Duress, for reasons also explained prior.

Also of note is the somewhat 'normal' issue of whether the opponent is playing Wastes or not.  If they are, would it not be better to Delta, Pearl, Chalice for 0, go?  Wait for a response, and see if anything proactive comes up, then play Brainstorm in response or EoT.  Perhaps it sounds verymuch like chopping off your own genitals in order to have an information advantage, but it protects you from being Wasted/Stripped.

Perhaps the only danger with this plan is the fact that it makes Duress far less effective than it could be (e.g. Brainfart in response.)  Yet it also provides more knowledge than just about ANY other play you can make of your opponent's hand; if they FoW your Chalice, then it is far more likely that they needed the LoMoxcel to have a chance, and you've also removed two cards in exchange for one of your own.  This also gives you far more opportunity to let your opponent outplay themselves, a somewhat under-rated strategy.

[warble]

SYou don't know what the right play is in this scenario because A) there is no board position to assess B) you don't know what is in your opponent's hand. Therefore, there is only *1* correct play in this scenario, regardless of what the outcome is: Sea, Duress. From there, you can make the "right decision"

Incorrect, you do know something because you've scouted your opponent.  Burning slaver doesn't have 1 and 2 cost colored acceleration like dark ritual and cabal ritual, so you're not scared of a first turn bomb landing if you yourself can land the chalice of the void for 0.  I think you're completely underestimating chalice with your play, which is why brainstorm is so feasible.  Without chalice in your hand you may have a good decision, but with chalice I'd go for brainstorm after pearl chalice if chalice hits because you're guaranteed a non-broken start from your opponent.  Tolarian won't do anything turn 1 and thus your opponent's going to have 1 mana at most, meaning likely pass ancestral during your upkeep or brainstorm.  There just isn't the type of "running start" that a first turn duress protects against once chalice hits.  Sure, if thirst for knowledge was forbidden orchard we might go for turn 1 duress into turn 2 oath but I would prefer more information about my OWN deck over information about my opponent's because I have scouted, and I can guarantee what 58 of his cards are...and they aren't scary on turns 1 or 2 with chalice of the void for 0 out.

[Harlequin]

So if you saw: Repeal, Welder, thirst, mana you would still chalice for 0?

[Shock Wave]

SYou don't know what the right play is in this scenario because A) there is no board position to assess B) you don't know what is in your opponent's hand. Therefore, there is only *1* correct play in this scenario, regardless of what the outcome is: Sea, Duress. From there, you can make the "right decision"

Incorrect, you do know something because you've scouted your opponent.  Burning slaver doesn't have 1 and 2 cost colored acceleration like dark ritual and cabal ritual, so you're not scared of a first turn bomb landing if you yourself can land the chalice of the void for 0.  I think you're completely underestimating chalice with your play, which is why brainstorm is so feasible.  Without chalice in your hand you may have a good decision, but with chalice I'd go for brainstorm after pearl chalice if chalice hits because you're guaranteed a non-broken start from your opponent.  Tolarian won't do anything turn 1 and thus your opponent's going to have 1 mana at most, meaning likely pass ancestral during your upkeep or brainstorm.  There just isn't the type of "running start" that a first turn duress protects against once chalice hits.  Sure, if thirst for knowledge was forbidden orchard we might go for turn 1 duress into turn 2 oath but I would prefer more information about my OWN deck over information about my opponent's because I have scouted, and I can guarantee what 58 of his cards are...and they aren't scary on turns 1 or 2 with chalice of the void for 0 out.

Even if you've scouted your opponent, you can't be sure of what is in their deck. If we're talking about a situation where you know exactly what cards your opponent is playing with, then sure, but in a tournament scenario, you don't have this information the majority of the time.

I think you're misunderstanding what I said. I said that you should lead with Duress, and then play the Chalice if necessary. I don't see why everyone is so eager to play the Chalice when it may have no bearing on the outcome of the game. Furthermore, if you're so concerned about resolving Chalice, why not lead with Duress so that you can take their FoW? If Chalice is as critical as you're making it seem, then you would definitely want to lead with Duress so that you can make sure the Chalice resolves.

[roberts91rom]

Duress sets you up for the rest of the game. You know what is in thier hand. At that point you know how, when and what to play to ensure that your oath resolves. Should you know that they are playing BS, you still don't know if they kept a welder heavy hand, and burning hand, a control hand, a drawing hand, a mana hand, a hand with basic lands, a hand with moxen, a hand with tutors, etc. It doesn't matter if you know WHAT they are playing, it matters if you know what they HAVE. Guessing causes game losses, and dropping unprotected oaths causes game losses. ICBM oath is an amazing deck, but anyone who would have dropped an unprotected oath is a person that is dragging down oath. Turn 1 Brainstorm means that if you don't hit mana or a shuffle, you just gave your opponent 2xTime Walk. I'm not saying that it's impossible to hit either, but i'm saying it's an unecessary risk. Duress on turn one gives you so much necessary information that it can be the difference between a win and a loss.

Side not: Don't posting play scenarios that are game 1 assuming you know the deck. In an actual tournament scenario there is almost a non-existant chance of you being 100% sure that you know every card and every strategy and what your opponent has in his hand and even exactly what deck he is playing. Unless you can provide a deck list in these play scenarios and a list of all possible hands then these are all moot points. These types of play scenarios are getting some incredibly stupid responses based on the assumption that you know every possible hand that your opponent can have and that there is no way they can have a hand that beats your play scenario. This scenario is getting people posting based on the assumption that you know what your opponent is playing. Should you ever post this type of scenario again, please provide a deck list of your oponnents deck and how you would acquire it in a tournament scenario. I don't have much of an interest discussing an almost impossible play scenario that could only come up in "casual."

[dicemanx]

These types of play scenarios are getting some incredibly stupid responses based on the assumption that you know every possible hand that your opponent can have and that there is no way they can have a hand that beats your play scenario.

These threads are supposed to generate discussion and give some insight into how people think through certain plays. If you are going to call people's attempts or assumptions "incredibly stupid", do us a favor and refrain from posting here. The idea is that people might make mistakes in their analyses, and we can all learn from that in the discussion.

Should you ever post this type of scenario again, please provide a deck list of your oponnents deck and how you would acquire it in a tournament scenario. I don't have much of an interest discussing an almost impossible play scenario that could only come up in "casual."

This is not an "impossible play scenario". The scenario is simple. You are playing against Control Slaver. You don't know precisely what they are playing down to the last card. The analysis in this thread is based on assumptions of what you're likely to see, and also based on prior experience in the match-up.

Shock Wave is absolutely right as well. We cannot ascertain with a high degree of certainty what the "best play" is going to be given that we have relatively little information thus far (in this play scenario, and the other scenarios as well). We instead have to make what we feel is the high percentage play based on intuition and experience in certain match-ups. We can also make decisions based on general considerations in control-control match-ups.

As I outlined in the first post, your primary options are either Duress followed by making a decision regarding CotV. As I also mentioned, even if CotV hits nothing, it might be an idea to pre-empt their future plans by setting it to 0 right away, unless there's a compelling reason not to (multiple 1cc cards in CS hand). This decision is dependent on experience (and a little gambling), not theoretical considerations here.

The other option is to be more aggressive and opt for a 1st turn Oath and CotV for 0. This way you establish your win condition immediately and slow them down in the process. If they FoW the Oath, I wouldn't see that as bothersome at all, because the oath has just turned into a "super Duress" nabbing a FoW and another business spell. The problem with this route is that you might miss a critical opportunity to take a business spell with Duress, and you might not hit Orchard in a while which means the play might be inconsequential.

The last option is what Smmenen outlined - go for the second turn TfK by Brainstorming immediately. This has its own risks, because if that Brainstorm doesn't reveal mana, you have sufferered a potential setback, and a follow-up Duress won't be as good if they have a Brainstorm in hand.

As I said, I favor the first plan most here.

[warble]

As I said, I favor the first plan most here.

I just think the first option has less potential gain than the other two, but you're right, all 3 are going to do something good.  I guess the implicit assumption that duress players are making is that in some instances chalice for 0 is going to hurt you more than the CS player.  Having played CS for quite some time, I can guarantee that is not the case even if you don't know what the CS players has drawn.  It boils down to do you care about the turn 1 oath more than the CS player does, and the same for the turn 1 chalice and duress.  I care about milking that force of will and playing chalice...not duressing a likely unplayable turn 1 bomb.  BUt yes, nobody is saying any of the plays are bad, just less than optimal.  It's like playing an ace high flush draw in a 10 handed table of texas holdem versus a small pocket pair in heads up.  Both legitimate plays, but where is the big payoff?  I'd say it's the brainstorm or the oath, but I'd pick the oath.

[dicemanx]

I just think the first option has less potential gain than the other two

The Duress plan is not mutually exclusive with the Oath plan, provided that there's a G-mana source in the next 4 cards. However, reversing the order can potentially weaken Duress quite a bit if they have Brainstorm. Now if you *see* an on-color mana source, then there's no major problem. But, if you don't actually see a mana source, you'd much rather want to have resolved a Duress than an Oath.

The Brainstorm into a mana source is less clear to me as far as what the gain is supposed to be exactly. Do you plan to hold onto the CotV to pitch to TfK? Is it critical to be resolving that TfK before they get Drain mana up? If you don't have an artifact to pitch then that TfK is looking less stellar, and if you hold onto the CotV you might end up with egg on your face by not doing anything disruptive for the first two turns and walk right into landx2 Mox TfK. 

If they reach Drain mana, your TfK is hardly dead weight. With CotV for 0 on the table, you are limiting them from any useful business if they plan to leave Drain mana up as well. Oath can afford to play this waiting game. I just think that Brainstorming immediately and seeing only 3 cards instead of 4 is a huge consideration here, NOT getting tfK before they get Drain mana up.

[warble]

You always play chalice for 0 if you're not duressing.  As I mentioned before it is impossible to get drain mana up turn 1 with CS with a chalice for 0 out.  That's what makes the brainstorm plan better, but since you don't have an orchard there isn't a real reason to be so protective of the oath...I'd rather drop it on turn 1 and risk getting it forced.  A hand with force + ancestral + blue card + mana + draw power with CS is not just amazing, it's the bomb and it's not likely.  This is what I mean about maximizing your potential.  Turn 1 oath does this really well because if you topdeck a land you get turn 2 thirst undrainable and if you don't and brainstorm into black mana you get turn 2 duress and it, again, looks 1 card deeper.  But from an "all in" standpoint I'll go for brainstorm turn 1 and protect oath...because that's safer and more control-esque.  I really don't like playing into my opponent's deck, I prefer to force them to play my game with oath.  That's how oath has always been winning and will continue to win.

[dicemanx]

I can understand the 1st turn Oath plan, but what's the obsession with getting TfK to resolve turn 2 before they get Drain mana up via the 1st turn Brainstorm alternate plan? You said that you'll play CotV for 0, so you have no more artifacts to pitch to TfK barring drawing an artifact and a mana source with Brainstorm. I think Brainstorming first is a mistake, and doesn't serve the control role at all - it serves to rush a play that doesn't need to be rushed.

I really don't like playing into my opponent's deck, I prefer to force them to play my game with oath.  That's how oath has always been winning and will continue to win.

This is not an accurate assessment in my opinion. The Oath itself is not representing a threat - you still have to locate the Orchard, and once you do you still need 3 turns to beat your opponent. And as I also said, the Duress plan is not excluding a quick Oath follow-up either. Casting Oath isn't automatically forcing them to "play your game". You are actually almost always playing theirs, and you either maintain parity via disruption or just kill them outright with Oath before they kill you.

[MaxxMatt]

I really appreciate the Dicemanx and shockwave approach towards this initial hand and the game itself.

U.Sea, Pearl, Duress, CotV is the way to go *not* because it is *the right play*. In an absolute sense, it means nothing, but it can be considered the *universal* way to approach an unknown matchup or a stable and well known one.


Duress would probably take out their Drawers it they have Welders and Counters, while it would take out Counters if it is *full of threats*.
CotV would prevent opponent from resolving *those* threats in a couple of turns and would actually neutralize quick and possible Welders recursions.
If Duress would have discarded TFK, it would be really difficult for them to properly recover from this position since too many turns are needed to establish their board position without autolosing the game.

During this process, you would draw a couple of additional cards, Brainstorm into more fresh new cards and maybe try to find and resolve Oath itself after TFK.

I'm not going to classify Oath without Orchard as a *real threat* because it could need too many turns to be properly used while CotV and Duress would virtually neutralize Welders' recursions better than Oath.

The remaining cards into Oath player's hand ( TFK, Brainstorm *and* Oath ) would guarantee 6 more new fresh cards, other possible strong plays and a lot of gas to fuel, protect and optimize the Oath plan.

Brainstorm+CardDrawnDuringDrawPhase would actually put you another blue mana font into your board *or* denial.

Opponent could possibily play only lands, before you'll have the possibility to play TFK during his EoT and play Oath with some backup during your consequent turn.

Your Oath would trigger safely during your 4 turn.
If you play Oath aggressively, you would end up triggering it during your 3rd or 4th turn, too.
The strategical difference between playing a *blind* Oath and fueling your win with a *crescendo* of stronger plays, is huge!

You can argue that there is *nothing* better than resolving Oath when you are playing an Oath.dec.
My perspective is that you have to put your initial hand *up into the future* of that game.
Oath, can be bounced back, destroyed and it is useless without Orchard. It is a button ready to be pushed to let you kill your opponent, but it would not be clicked so often or quickly.

Play a safer game, even with this *comboish* oath version.
*That* hand, would be better capitalized by this plays, while *some* other ones, could let you win *quickier* only with Oath.

[AngryPheldagrif]

I really don't like playing into my opponent's deck, I prefer to force them to play my game with oath.  That's how oath has always been winning and will continue to win.

You are making the wrong arguments for the right reasons. You don't want to play into your opponent's deck with Oath. That is true. But Sea, Duress, Chalice is not playing into Slaver's strategy. Quite the opposite, in fact. You are launching a two-pronged attack at the fundamental resources on which Slaver is built. Duress damages their ability to sculpt their hand and assemble the resources to control the game, while Chalice attacks both their ability to accelerate the game and their primary trump, Goblin Welder. Assuming you see a Mox or 2 and drop the Chalice accordingly, you are left with a hand of Oath, Brainstorm, Thirst that is in all likelihood much more powerful than what they have. You then switch over to the primary strategy and have given yourself the turns to accomplish this long before they can regain any sort of control.

In fact, the biggest reason Brainstorm is the incorrect play is because that is playing into their game. You have a very powerful hand that is almost entirely tempo-based. To play Brainstorm, off your only shuffle effect no less, would be to basically admit that your hand is inadequate and you would rather sacrifice the single most potent turn with the deck, the only turn you will have before they can start the hand-sculpting that could inevitably defeat you, to take your chance that three blanks wield yield something that will turn the game around. What do you hope to draw exactly? Even if you find an on-color Mox or Lotus you are only achieving parity as you have used a colored source to find one. Once again, it may be the correct play against Gifts, but you almost never want to open with BS against Slaver. I would rather lead with Oath and hope to trap a Welder in their hand.

[warble]

I would rather lead with Oath and hope to trap a Welder in their hand.

That's what I would do too.  I guess I've just always been on the other side of this matchup and know that, if I have a Force of Will, I'm going to use it on Oath of Druids and absolutely nothing else in this matchup.  By giving your opponent a turn you allow them the opportunity to draw into a Force of Will and that is what I'm guessing you guys don't care about.  But, from a Slaver standpoint, all you are preventing is Oath of Druids and the sooner it drops the more likely it is you'll lose the game.  There isn't any inevitability in Oath unless Oath is resolved and on the table.  So do that, and you're playing your game, and don't and you're playing theirs.  Brainstorm is better because it gives you an opportunity to drop mox before the chalice hits, which is key number 1, and frees you up for a thirst turn 2 if you want and perhaps thirst and brainstorm, or a load of other options.  Don't brainstorm and you lose 6 of your mana sources...but you'll have that oath out.  It would be a far more feasible option with a vampiric tutor or DT in hand, but given you have two blue cards it's not like you can't draw cards...you're just treating it as your deck will crap out on you which is the opposite of type 1 play.  You put those cards in there so you'd draw them, and if you topdeck black lotus next turn you might as well shoot yourself in the head right now.  But I'll stick to turn 1 oath, and only if I absolutely have to will I brainstorm...and I'm not sure why I would have to...

[chrissss]

but whats the point of playing oath when you dont have a forbidden orchard?

 you will just give him a warning. its better to duress imo.

[Dante]

but whats the point of playing oath when you dont have a forbidden orchard?

 you will just give him a warning. its better to duress imo.

So that if he does want to play a Welder, you can Oath and attack for 1 turn before the welder goes active.  Otherwise you can make them not play the Welder, both good options.