[Premium Article] SCG P9 Rochester Report *Top 4* Grim Long

[Implacable]

In my list, I play both Regrowth and Wish. In my humble opinion, both are too good to play only one.

[Smmenen]

EDIT: I can’t tell you how many people say I’m lucky when I play Grim Long – whether it is on MWS or wherever.  Maybe, it’s just that I’m better than the scrubs you tested against with Grim Long?  Grim Long wins a third of its games on turn one.  People seem astounded by this.  They should not.
If I have black lotus and a force of will in my opening hand, I’m going to win.  It’s really that simple.  There is a 98% or so direct correlation between starting the game with Black Lotus and winning the game. 
I wish I had a dime for every time someone said I was lucky with Grim Long.  The reason the player base tremendously overestimates the importance of luck is simple.  In any population set, there is a curve of play skill.  Skill is not only objective, it is relative.  Those who are worse will more often than not, improperly attribute their losses to luck as opposed to just getting outplayed.  It happens ALL the time.  The biggest flaw in magic players is the assumption that one’s play or deck choice was correct, but that they got unlucky.  This just is flawed thinking.

[LordHomerCat]

There is a 98% or so direct correlation between starting the game with Black Lotus and winning the game.

If nothing else in this thread is true, this must be.  Drawing Black Lotus in the opener makes it not a question of IF I can win the game, but how to play most optimally to win a game I am all but guaranteed to be able to win.

Obviously, the reason Steve seems so lucky is that he is more skilled at drawing Black Lotus than most =]

[Tin_Mox5831]

Alright, enough ruffled feathers. I'm fairly confident that the reason Stephen linked to that list was to demonstrate the sheer amount of hate cards Oath can pack, and that the deck (Grim Long) can beat that kind of hate in a tournament setting, something not many decks can do. I really don't think it was to call you out. (BTW, thanks for insulting the rest of us who were watching the match. We just didn't think a game of Magic should evolve into a barfight. Classy touch. ) No need to get a productive thread locked for the sake of your pride. If issues like this arise, they really should be discussed via PM anyway.

[ErkBek]

Steve,
In the article, you mention that playing a land before a draw7 as a mistake in 2 separate occasions. I disagree that these instances should be considered play errors since the odds of drawing academy are around 15-20% off a twister and 20-30% off other draw7's depending on the circumstances. Meanwhile the odds of drawing land-less hands are comparable. Most of the time I play lands before a draw7 if I've got them, unless I feel that my odds of winning rely heavily on needing the mana boost from academy. What grounds do you evaluate playing another land vs. hitting academy on a draw7?
-Eric

[Tin_Mox5831]

Well, I'm no Smmenen, but I have one decision process that dictates if I play a land pre-Draw 7 or press my luck and here it is:

I basically ask my self this. "Is there a bomb that I could possibly draw in this spot that I would not be able to drop without an additional land?" If the answer is no, I almost always skip the drop and go for the Draw-7. If yes, then I hedge my bets and play the extra land first. Unfortunately, almost every time I do that, I get to see Tolarian Academy in my new hand.  Sometimes, if my deck is extremely juicy (i.e. I've seen quite a bit of mana, but very few bombs so far.), I may change the prerequisite to "Can I play two bombs right now if I have to?"

It's certainly not a "sure thing" by any means, but I feel that following this logic usually leads me to make the right call in this situation.

[Smmenen]

Steve,
In the article, you mention that playing a land before a draw7 as a mistake in 2 separate occasions. I disagree that these instances should be considered play errors since the odds of drawing academy are around 15-20% off a twister and 20-30% off other draw7's depending on the circumstances. Meanwhile the odds of drawing land-less hands are comparable. Most of the time I play lands before a draw7 if I've got them, unless I feel that my odds of winning rely heavily on needing the mana boost from academy. What grounds do you evaluate playing another land vs. hitting academy on a draw7?
-Eric

Ugh, it's actually more complicated than that.   Basically, if you are just looking athte probabiliyt of drawing an academy off the draw7 versus the probability of not drawing a land in the draw7, that's not quite the correct perspective.  Youi need the factor in how many lands you've already played, how many are in your deck, how much mana you'll have floating after your draw7, what the chances of you seein gmore draw and playing a major draw spell are after your draw7 has resolved - particularly one that would see you more lands, etc.  There are so many variables at play. 

[ErkBek]

I guess what I'm getting at is that you say for the most part, GL only loses to your own play errors. I don't consider playing a land before a draw 7 a play error in most situations. I'm sure you would have called it an error if you didn't drop a land and then didn't draw a land in the new seven. Randomness is part of the game. You seem to ignore that, playing it off as a error.

[Tin_Mox5831]

I think it's really a matter of semantics. Is it truly an error to choose not to drop that land before playing the Draw-7? No way. You can't possibly know what's going to happen there. Does that line of play cost you significantly sometimes? Sure. It can't truly be classified as a play error, but the end result is a suboptimal play either way. I suppose the proper way to sum up the deck is that it loses to suboptimal play in general, rather than play error.

[Tin_Mox5831]

You make a very good case JD. Just to clarify the background of my response, I was really answering the question based on the fact that Eric was asking it. You're absolutely right with the statement that if the numbers clearly dictate against it, skipping the land drop is a true error. I do, however, feel that if someone of his skill level is considering both sides of this decision, then he is either in a neutral position or a truly advantageous one. Anyway, what you said was certainly true, I just wanted to make my motivation known.

[Gabethebabe]

3) You think you will lucksack into Academy.

This is of course not the politically correct way to state it. Divination is an art few people possess (or it should be that they are good at manipulating libraries).
3) You need to lucksack into Academy, otherwise you are probably going to lose.

I think this describes it better.
I totally aree with the observation Kobefan made and I think Steve is being a little harsh on himself, calling this play errors.

You should also consider that NOT making that land drop and then Twister means you have just marginally decreased your chance of drawing into Academy (of course this does not count for other draw-7s).